Tropical Storm Bertha Strengthens Further!

[00:00:00]Good afternoon. It is Tuesday, July 21st, 2026. Here looking at the visible satellite imagery on tropical storm Bertha this afternoon with winds that are at 60 mph.

[00:00:12]We zoom in here and look at the circulation a little bit better. You'll notice that it is vertically tilted with height because we're not seeing any of this convection wrapping all the way around onto the upshare side of the system. So, we have the circulation that is right about in here right now. And at times it tries to develop a new circulation closer to this mid-level circulation where all the deep thunderstorm activity is happening. Look at all that lightning that's occurring right there. That is a very very strong mid-level circulation. Very vigorous and producing lots of lightning and deep thunderstorm convection with cloud tops that are very cold here. Greater than80 to 85° C. But when we do look off towards the northeast and pay very close attention to any thunderstorms that do blow up any deep convection and bring sears clouds or develop any that is you can see that is a indication of just how much vertical wind shear we actually have. So we got some thunderstorms developing here over Florida and you could see the tops of those cier clouds are coming in out of the northeasterly direction. That is a vertical wind shear by definition. When you have wind change with height here, tilting the vortex and that's exactly what's causing this to remain really miscombobulated. Really no deep convection wrapping all the way onto the upshere side of the system.

[00:01:37]Otherwise, Pensacola, Crest View, all of these areas would have lots of heavy rainfall. In other words, all the cloud cover that you have up here to the north. kind of simulate that and kind of pretend that would be rainfall over your area. We're basically seeing the skeletal northern side of what Bertha would look like if it weren't for the vertical wind shear. And so that's exactly what we're seeing. So really dry and really desolate on the northern side of the system versus very wet and convective on the southern side. Now, here's a more zoomed out view on the water vapor salai imagery over the Gulf.

[00:02:13]And we can see why that vertical wind shear is present and we have seen this in recent modeling for a while now. So, this was well forecasted to occur and it's because we have a deep layer tropospheric ridge over the high plains.

[00:02:27]You can see that dark gray color indicating really dry air loft over much of Oklahoma, Texas, and parts of Nebraska and Kansas. But on the eastern flank of that ridge, we have this northerly and return flow coming in out of the northeasterly direction. So now we have northeasterly upper level flow now approaching the northern tip there of Florida being shoved into the system.

[00:02:50]So what we end up seeing right here now is a system that's really tilted and one would even argue that it's even a 60 mph tropical storm just because of how tilted and yucky this actually looks.

[00:03:04]You can even see some really dry air developing and uh forming on the northern side of the system where those darker gray colors are present. Now, taking a look at another way we could visualize this system is looking at the Doppler radar site out of Mobile, Alabama. And as we can see here, take note how very little precipitation there actually is. And if it does occur, it's going to be rather quick and it's not going to really accumulate too whole.

[00:03:29]But down to the south here, this is where we have that circulation, that mid-level center with very, very intense deep convection. If it weren't for the northeasterly vertical windshare, you could just imagine all of this would be occurring on the northern side of the circulation as well, bringing significant rainfall and flooding across parts of Mobile, Alabama, as well as Pensacola, Florida. But because of the vertical windshare, that is why you're having a lack of significant rainfall.

[00:03:56]Although there is some pretty good banding that just recently rolled through Mobile, Alabama, bringing some gusty winds associated with that. But this is exactly where the center actually is. Right about in here somewhere, really close to where this um oil rig uh observation actually is with northerly sustained wind here between 35 to 45 mph with the recent wind gust nearing 60 mph on the western side of that area of low pressure. Thankfully, we were able to get a Air Force Hurricane Hunter recon mission into the system this afternoon. And so far, they have found pressures remaining fairly steady, a little lower than yesterday during my live stream. We're down to 996 millibars. And we're hanging right around 995 to 996 with the strongest winds now definitely being well represented on the southern side and also on the eastern side where um there are a couple of wind barbs here in the orange which indicate sustained low-level winds of around 55 to close to 60 knots. That is very strong for a system that is this vertically uh sheared right now. Winds have also gotten a little stronger on the northern side. So, some of those tropical storm force winds are able to wrap all the way around onto the upshere side of Bertha where we have winds that are between 40 and for uh 50 knots at this time. That's in the low levels which translates to about 35 to 40 mph at the surface. So, near tropical storm force winds are already occurring in parts of Mobile and parts of Pensacola and Panama City, Florida. Now, when we take a look at our latest hurricane models here from the Hmon and Hwarf on the deep layer moisture plot for this afternoon on your Tuesday into Tuesday night, we can see that anything in green shading here is a lot of moisture. So, we have a a very wet atmosphere. Anything to the north here in brown or neutral whitish colors are um about 50 to 35% humidity. So, the air is relatively dry compared to the south. So when we put this into motion here, you'll see that the vortex on this model remains somewhat intact to some degree. You can see some decent moisture here um just to the north of the circulation. So this is not uh vertically um misaligned yet. Um you can see the mid-level circulation right here and the lowle circulation just to the north of that. So this is a little bit more vertically stacked than what was previously modeled. And we can see that here. If we look at previous runs, uh we can see um in last night's run, it was was forecast to remain more misaligned, okay, with the mid-level circulation much further to the south than previously forecasted. And that was been shown true in many runs. But in today's run, we can see that it really meets with what we're seeing right now, which has now implications on what's going to happen in the next couple of days. So putting this into motion, we can see that the um vortex remains more vertically stacked, more coherent than what was previously forecasted.

[00:07:06]And so right about here, yeah, so in about 27 hours by Wednesday morning, we can see that the mid-level vortex best estimate is right here with the lowle vortex that is right here. So these are almost vertically aligned in such a way that the system might actually strengthen a little bit more before making a potential landfall over Venice in Louisiana. There's a lot of uncertainty on that. We don't know for a fact if this is going to make a direct landfall. There's a lot of wiggle room to be made up here because sometimes when you get a uh vertically misaligned vortex where we have all the deep convection that happens on the southern side, the system, the surface low can get yanked underneath or closer to that mid-level vortex. And so we could see a little bit of jumps in the center from time to time. So exactly if this is going to make a direct landfall over Venice and Louisiana, we just don't know yet. But what we do know is it looks like it's going to hold together a little bit more, which is not a good scenario. And this is what we were not hoping for. We were hoping for the system to be more miscombobulated by this time and almost fully decoupled.

[00:08:17]But it does not look like that's going to happen right now, which is really unfortunate. So it has implications. So going over the next 36 hours here, by tomorrow afternoon, it will be to the south right off the coast of Louisiana.

[00:08:29]So maybe a brief landfall here as it moves generally this way with a pressure of 994 millibars. That is pretty low for a sheared system with the mid-level vortex that's a little bit more misaligned here. Uh and that would be better news. But unfortunately the vertical wind shear could lighten up just enough for this vortex to become more better aligned. Uh where we have the vortex right over here and the low-level center right over here. And you can see all the green deep colors here wrapping onto the upsharere side of the system. This is only one hurricane model showing this and it's been fairly aggressive from time to time. So we don't exactly know how strong this is going to be once it makes potential landfall over hu u over Corpus Christi, Texas as a possible strong tropical storm with winds of at least 70 mph.

[00:09:20]When you take a look at the HWARF model, this shows something entirely different.

[00:09:23]It shows that the system is a little bit more misaligned. This is probably what we're seeing right now. I think the Hwarf is capturing this a little bit better with a lot of dry air that is over the circulation. However, and the surface pressure here is about 99697.

[00:09:41]So, it's capturing the system a little bit better, I believe. And so, what this ends up doing is it's a lot more miscombobulated once it gets to Louisiana here with a pressure of 1,001 mibars. And you can see the surface low is right in here somewhere uh with the mid-level circulation that is much further down to the south. So this is more vertically tilted with height than what the H bond was showing which has implications down the line. And so what we end up seeing here is a system that's a lot weaker um a little stronger at the surface, but you can see all the thunderstorms here are well removed down to the south. In fact, almost off the screen here comparably to our surface low. So there are notable differences between the Hwarf that has a not as coherent vortex that is more vertically stacked versus one on the Hmon. There is a clear discrepancy here between the two runs. Okay. And this is very very important. It is also worth noting that the Hwarf is faster than the Hmon which is a little slower which gives it a little bit more time over the Golf which to strengthen. So, that's what we have.

[00:10:50]Some slight timing differences and also intensity differences on both of the hurricane models. Here's a look at the latest official forecast from the National Hurricane Center this afternoon. And as you can see, winds are at 60 mph, moving to the northwest at 6 m an hour. And so, the cone of uncertainty has narrowed down considerably than what it was like yesterday and days prior. We can see now exactly where this is going. And that is why now there is pretty good confidence that there are going to be tropical storm force winds on the southeastern coast of Louisiana where a tropical storm warning is in effect. We got tropical storm warnings out for the southern coast of Alabama and parts of the panhandle of Florida right around where Panama City, Florida is. We also got uh tropical storm warnings out for Mobile Bay. Uh no wait for Bloxy, Mississippi, excuse me there. Um, so that's what we have going on from the latest NHC forecast as of 400 p.m.

[00:11:46]Central Daylight Time with tropical storm conditions that are possible over the rest of the southern coast of Louisiana over the next couple of days.

[00:11:54]Please take this seriously. Just because there's no rain expected here does not mean the impacts will not be that significant. We're dealing with 40 to 45 to 60 mph winds. And if the system can hang on a little longer and resist some of the vertical wind shear, this could theoretically intensify just a little bit more right before it makes landfall over Louisiana. So please take that into consideration. And also consider this.

[00:12:19]The system could theoretically make a direct landfall over New Orleans, Louisiana in about a day or so comparatively down to the south here where the southern end of the cone of uncertainty still exists where this could spend more time over the Gulf Waters. Here are the latest key messages from the National Hurricane Center on tropical storm Bertha. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward along portions of the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to southeastern Louisiana, including the metro New Orleans area through Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the southwestern coast of Louisiana Wednesday night and Thursday. A coastal flood warning is in effect for the Mississippi and Louisiana coastlines where moderate coastal flooding is expected. Interests elsewhere in extreme western Louisiana and along the upper Texas coast should monitor the progress of the system as additional watches or warnings could be required for portions of that area. Isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along the Gulf Coast from the western Florida panhandle into southern Louisiana.

[00:13:25]So, here's a look at those key messages one last time. And here's a look at the earliest reasonable arrival time of tropical storm force winds. And as you can see, those chances have been increased notably over southeastern Louisiana where there's a greater than 60 to 70% chance of tropical storm force winds by Wednesday morning along the coast there with the rest of the coast seeing tropical storm conditions that are possible. Anywhere between a 20 to 30% chance of tropical storm force winds across Cameron, Louisiana, as well as southern parts of Louisiana there, arriving by Wednesday night into early Thursday morning with nonzero chances of tropical storm conditions. That is a 5 to 10% chance over Houston, Texas. Now, the storm surge forecast hasn't changed at all since my last video. There's a risk of 2 to four feet of storm surge through the next 24 to 36 hours as onshore winds push Gulf waters along the Mississippi coast as well as portions of Louisiana near Lake Patchet train where 1 to 3 ft of storm surge is expected there. Cameron, Louisiana, 1 to 3 ft of storm surge and the rest of um the panhandle of Florida looking at around 1 to 3 feet of storm surge. Rainfall totals do not look all that impressive at all. And what you're seeing right out there today across the northern end of the system is pretty much with what you're going to be looking at over the foreseeable future. Just periods of light to moderate rainfall that move through very quickly. Nothing too significant at all comparatively down in here off the coast of Louisiana where significant amounts of rainfall are expected. But of course, no one lives over the Gulf, which is great news because some of these rainfall totals could exceed 12 in at times. That's significant comparatively on shore here where you're only going to be seeing maybe about a/ an inch to 3/4 of an inch of rainfall over the next few days. Lake Charles expected to not see hardly anything left with this system. So, you're not expecting hardly any rainfall out of this despite how strong the system actually is right now. Right now, the flood risk continues to dwindle, which is great news. That's what we want to hear for Mobile, Alabama, for Tallahassee, and for Lake Charles, where there's barely a 5% risk for flash flooding in these areas. And the only main impact would be coastal flooding and strong wind impacts associated with this tropical storm. This is one of those rare cases we can say actually that um this is not a strong tropical storm in a relative sense because a classic tropical storm would bring significant rainfall, storm surge, flooding, strong damaging winds. We're only seeing a couple of those impacts here. So you could actually write this off and say that uh this is not a big deal at all. Now I would treat it as a big deal because I have to give out official information according to with what the National Hurricane Center says.

[00:16:16]So, still take this seriously to some degree if you're right along the coast.

[00:16:20]But if you're further inland, this is really not anything to really worry about at all. Okay. So, therefore, uh you can go about your plans. You can do what you need to do. Um nothing too concerning there unless you're right along the coastline where tropical storm force winds are expected with coastal flooding. Here's a look at the latest spaghetti plot from Tropical Tidbits.

[00:16:41]And again, do not use this map to make decisions. Please seek official info from the National Hurricane Center. This is just raw model guidance as and right now most of the guidance does have this hitting the southeastern coastal Louisiana with a little bit of a spread here again between a weaker storm that will deviate a little bit more to the west uh towards the west northwest with a a stronger storm system that might be more resistant and may want to deviate a little bit further to the south. So that's where we are at right now over the next couple of days. either uh a continuation of a grace to the coast of Louisiana or an offshore track into say Corpus Christi um Texas in the next 2 to 3 days. Now, in yesterday morning's video as well as yesterday's live stream, we all thought that this storm would peak intensity. Bertha has played some unfortunate tricks with us and had a little bit of a plot twist. So, right now, winds are at 50 knots or about 60 mph. And right now I am very confident that this has reached its peak intensity. Now I would not be surprised, okay, that if this does strengthen a little bit more just because of how resilient the system has been thus far.

[00:17:53]So, I would expect maybe additional strengthening throughout the rest of today before weakening does commence or does begin to commence by tonight with gradual weakening over the next couple of days into a remnant low by days 3 and 4. You can see all the models pretty much below tropical storm intensity by the time we go into 72 hours. But anyways, I will not have a live stream out this evening and that's because I'm going to spend some time with family.

[00:18:21]We're going to go see Toy Story 5 in our movie theater. So therefore, I will not be available for any live streaming this evening. And that's why I made a video update instead for you all because I do care about you all. I want to make sure I'm being thorough. I'm saving people's lives here. But anyways, if you did find this update on Tropical Storm Bertha very detailed, helpful, informative, and life-saving, please don't forget to subscribe to the YouTube channel, hit that bell notification icon, share this video with your family and friends on social media, hit the like button, and also do other things to help support the YouTube channel because, of course, my job is here to save people's lives, to provide very accurate and honest weather information on tropical storms like this that we're dealing with. All right, but anyways, thank you all for watching and I might have another video out tomorrow morning. It will depend on what our situation is like with tropical storm Bertha. But otherwise, I'll be back with you more tomorrow afternoon or morning with a routine tropical weather update.