He risked his house to bet on Eurovision

Added: 2026-05-19

[00:00:00]So, the Eurovvision Song Contest is absolutely massive. It will be watched by hundreds of millions of people who are desperate to find out who's going to win the contest or at least not finish with null pua.

[00:00:13]But it's also a huge betting event.

[00:00:15]Millions of pounds will be traded on this particular market and I personally will put through tens of thousands of pounds on the eventual outcome of the Eurovvision Song Contest. However, I'm relatively small fry because it's a specialist market and it's not something I particularly focus on. And in fact, there is somebody that bet their entire house on Eurovvision. And in this video, not only do I want to discuss Eurovvision in general, but more specifically, the guy that bet his house on the Eurovvision Song Contest.

[00:00:49]So, I first became really interested in the Eurovvision Song Contest in 2006, and the thing that caught my eye was not only were there millions getting matched on Eurovvision Song Contest, but also there was a group there called Lordi uh that seemed to capture the imagination of the public. It doesn't matter what goes on and how good the musicians are within this particular contest. if a theme develops throughout the competition, then that can really drive the betting results and it just looked like an obvious opportunity to me. So, I started actively betting on this in 2006.

[00:01:24]So, every time Eurovision comes around, I'm primed to do some betting uh and trading. And it's important if you're going to do anything like that to understand that there are three distinct spells within the Eurovvision Song Contest. when the individual countries perform their song that will nudge the price up or down within the betting market based upon how they've performed but also the running order will have some impact on that as well. Then we get to the jury vote and the jury vote can be a bit random but you'll find that a pattern begins to develop after the first few votes in terms of what seems to be uh getting favored over the course of the competition. But also you have to remember that countries that are well aligned tend to vote to each other. So it sort of makes a bit of a nonsense of the jury vote. And then we get to the public vote. And the interesting thing about the public vote is that necessarily um doesn't reflect what's going on within the jury vote. It very often uh there seems to be very little correlation between what the jury is saying and what the public would like to win. But yeah, every year I go in there and I will look at how the market unfolds and I'll look at that over the course of the time to take account of how individual countries and voting patterns will affect the odds over a period of time. But there are actually a whole range of things that you can look at that will give you some guidance in terms of whether you want to bet or trade on Eurovvision. And this was how I came across this particular story of the guy that bet his entire house on the Eurovvision song contest.

[00:02:56]So, I first came across the guy that would bet his house on Eurovvision when Australia joined the Eurovvision Song Contest. I was interested in the dynamic of it, uh, what people's opinions were and there was an article on the BBC website on the 19th of May 2015 where somebody was talking about the impact of Australia on Eurovvision. Uh, the guy's name was Daniel Gould. He was quoted as being a Eurovvision analyst. And I'm always really skeptical of people who comment on things unless if they have skin in the game. If you've got money on something, you're likely to talk about it with authority. If you haven't, it means nothing to you. But as it turned out, uh Daniel did actually have a lot of money on it and therefore his opinion was worthwhile. Uh so let's understand a bit more about Daniel Gould.

[00:03:44]So reading up on Daniel led me to a couple of things. The first one was an article in the Times where he was talking quite openly about what he was doing in 2010. It also mentioned he was 34 and a history teacher. So he was doing all of his betting on the side as it were. But he was explaining that last year he was on Muldova and made a profit of nearly 13,000.

[00:04:07]But he also was talking about how he made 12,000 on the semi-final of that particular year. And it was obvious that he was doing this very seriously.

[00:04:18]So, it turned out that Daniel had a website as well. And more importantly, when you visit that website, you can see that he eventually gave up his teaching job and turned pro in 2010. But not only that, he was able to get a press pass to the Eurovvision events and that gave him a much better view of everything that was going on and the emergent favorites and he would share that information on his website. And the website is an absolute sort of gold mine of information relating to Eurovvision and all of the trends and characteristics that have shaped Eurovvision over the years. It was really worth a decent read.

[00:04:58]So the Sofet website has lots of interesting information, but also some top tips on how you would pick a winning bet at Eurovvision.

[00:05:06]You can see the top tip here is the draw. Um, but also you can see the progression from the semi-final to the final, how the band looks, uh, the sort of styles that are in or out of vogue, when you should bet, um, reading fan blogs and stuff like that, focusing on the public vote, but also looking at niche betting opportunities, um, and other areas. And of course, all of these songs are available on YouTube, so it's very helpful to understand just how many views are being watched. But I I won't go through it in great detail. I suggest you visit the website and also these tips were updated in 2014. Um so you can find more information on those and how things have evolved from there. So yeah, it's worth visiting the site. I don't want to steal their thunder and go through each one of them. I suggest you give it a visit and have a read for yourself.

[00:06:02]So, let's review some of Daniel's big moments in the Eurovvision Song Contest and some of the big bets he placed and how he actually risked his house on a song.

[00:06:12]His big start came in 2004 when the semi-final rounds were introduced. And Daniel realized that he could actually get countries almost guaranteed to qualify thanks to diaspora voting patterns. And armed with that knowledge, he started placing huge bets on specific countries to qualify for the final. This was pretty risky though because it's reported that he risked £100,000 at 103.

[00:06:37]In other words, £100,000 to win, £3,000 profit. But he had calculated based upon the voting patterns that they were almost certain to pay off. So he felt comfortable. But he admitted that he couldn't bear to watch the results, standing facing the wall, biting my fist as the qualifiers were announced. But the strategy paid off and his early wins confirmed that Eurovvision could be very profitable for him.

[00:07:03]So winding forward to 2009, Daniel had a life-changing win. In 2009, he backed uh the Norwegian entry fairy tale by Alexander Ryback. And indeed, that went on to win, giving Daniel his biggest win to date. It was so big that he actually paid off his mortgage. And it was a pivotal moment for him because he decided at that point that he would quit being a history teacher to become a full-time Eurovvision gambler.

[00:07:32]So from 2010 onwards, this was his job.

[00:07:34]He was a full-time Eurovision gambler.

[00:07:37]And it sounds like you're just having a punt on a song, but he was doing loads of deep research such as looking at Google Trends, YouTube views, Spotify, fan forums, doing all sorts of stuff to basically come up with the best idea of who was going to win or who was going to qualify for the final. The only thing that was a big gamble for him was that every year to raise enough money to be able to place big enough bets is that he would actually borrow money against the value of his flat to serve as betting capital. when the competition was over, he would repay that money and then use what was left over to travel the world.

[00:08:14]So in 2018, he went all in on Israel and things were looking pretty good until an excellent performance by Cyprus that suddenly began to add a lot of tension to the mix and the final became a lot closer than he had expected.

[00:08:29]That was probably the closest he came to a bit of a disaster, but thankfully Israel won out and again he had an excellent result.

[00:08:40]So, I would love to continue the story, but unfortunately I can't because Daniel died in December 2018. He was only 43 years old and he died from a blood clot resulting from an undiagnosed brain tumor. It was an absolutely tragic way to end this story. But unfortunately, that is the way that this story ends. If you visit the Sofet website, you can see a memoriam to him there and a discussion of how the website started and all of the things that he did there. And of course, all of the information that he gained and the knowledge that he picked up over those many years of betting on Eurovvision, he was kind enough to share on that website. Uh so I suggest if you are interested in betting on Eurovvision, you go to the website, pay homage to a man who devoted pretty much the major part of his working life betting on Eurovvision.

[00:09:40]So the Eurovvision Song Contest is an absolutely massive betting event. Uh strange but true. And if you want to take it to the next level, have a read of all the content that Daniel produced because that is, you know, I think really good quality stuff. And if you're interested in what's going to influence the betting patterns and how um then that will give you a good steer. And as Daniel shows, you know, if you want to specialize in something, then maybe you could even risk your house on it.

[00:10:06]Although that's maybe something I suggest that you don't do. Uh that was certainly an incredible risk to take, but it obviously worked out for Daniel.

[00:10:14]It's just such a shame that he wasn't able to continue that and that his life um ended prematurely. It was a real shame when I read up on all of the information that he had done, all of the things that he did. It was a bit of a shock to see that that's how it all ended. Anyhow, Eurovvision is coming up and that's how I suggest you bet and trade on it.