WHAT IS THE DEAL ON THE DEAL? (Take 2)

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-23

[00:00:02]All right, friends. Welcome back to the Crisis Report. This is take two. Sorry about that. We're going to be talking today about the deal, what's going on with the deal, and everything about the deal. If you like what we're doing here, please consider joining us as a member on YouTube or on Subscribear or on Substack. We're about 8 to 12 quarters a month, depending. Helps keep the most comprehensive news on YouTube out there and flowing. Here we go.

[00:00:26]War drags on. Tensions have grown between US and Israeli officials, particularly as Netanyahu exerts pressure for the US to restart the war.

[00:00:35]Per Washington Post, Israel is not capable of fighting and winning wars on its own, but nobody actually knows this because he never see the back end.

[00:00:43]According to a US official, House Speaker Mike Johnson canled vote on ending the conflict in Iran after it became clear Republicans likely did not have the votes to block it. per New York Times. United Arab Emirates joined Saudi Arabia and Qatar in begging Trump not to restart the Iran war. According to Wall Street Journal, according to Israeli channel 12, Trump is so frustrated with Iran's response that he canled his golf club trip this weekend and is possible he will order a green light on uh decisive action. So, this is kind of where everybody else um you know is right now. A lot of the uh um a lot of the uh Hold on real quick.

[00:01:33]Yeah, that's what I thought. Um a lot of the channels out there were saying the war is going to start. They're getting all hyperbolic. I'm not going to do that. When you actually see missiles going off, guys, you're going to hear it from me. I'm going to take a paced and measured approach. So, is it possible that a uh attack is going to happen?

[00:01:50]Yes. But me putting out an a red alert with flashing signals saying it started, we're all dead, blah blah blah, I'm not going to do that. So, if you see other channels doing that, um, and then you see me kind of on the same pain plane or whatever plan, that means something actually is going on. When you see them doing it and I'm like not posting, that means that like, yeah, it's tense, but we're normal.

[00:02:15]According to Israeli channel 12, Trump is frustrated with Iran's uh response.

[00:02:20]He's canceled his trips. Trump is now on the verge to attack Iran once again per Axios. Trump has grown increasingly frustrated in the past few days over the current state of negotiations with Iran raised the possibility of a final major military operation after which he would unilaterally declare victory and end the war. US official briefed on the diplomatic efforts described the negotiations as agonizing. Yes, they are saying draft proposals are going back and forth every day with little meaningful progress being made. And that is honestly what is going on. There is uh little meaningful progress. You know, they're they're saying they got a deal.

[00:03:01]Well, we got a deal blah blah blah. It's coming and we're going to do this and all that. They're just sending the same things back and forth to each other.

[00:03:08]It's not progressing. There's a few sticking points on each side that each side is not willing to give up. And so until one of them says, "All right, we'll give that up." It's going to keep doing this and we're going to stay in this limbo. What does that matter to you? Well, it's good that the war is not going on, but it's bad that the fact that the Straight of Hormuz is closed.

[00:03:32]Yesterday there was a prochemical um plant in Europe in Hungary. If I remember correctly, it is uh a major producer of the beginning stages and and resources that go into making plastic.

[00:03:48]That's the kind of stuff we're already starting to hear reports of people having plastic packaging change. They're not using the same uh colors because they don't have the color availability.

[00:03:59]were saying, you know, start to get things at different stores and they're using like paper bags and things like that.

[00:04:07]That's what's going on is is you're going to start to see little supplies change disruptions like that that are coming. So, even though the war isn't raging, it is going to affect you in about, you know, one to five months depending on what it is the product and everything else. if you're not considering going out and getting, you know, a little bit of oil to have for your motor oil changes. And it's because it's not that there is a lack of oil in a general sense. It's that the major companies that make the motor oil for most vehicles, about 40% of them are shut down or in the Middle East and have had, you know, damages to their production facilities.

[00:04:48]That's the problem. So, it's just things like that. So yeah, coming here and talking about the war, that's all important and everything, but realistically it's how long is this straight of Hormuse thing going to be shut down and the longer it goes, we're we're coming up on like a quarter of the year here pretty soon.

[00:05:05]That's a problem and that's what's going to really affect you. Iran has managed to destroy more than 24 American MQ9 Reaper drones. 20% of the total inventory of this type of drone belonging to the US since this war started causing an unprecedented loss an estimated nearly $1 billion to Bloomberg. US Navy officials says Taiwan arm sales are on pause over the Iran war. WH says additional case of hivirus uh reported in Netherlands.

[00:05:37]Ebola risk is upgraded from high to very high in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

[00:05:43]Taiwan security chief says China's deployed over 100 vessels in regional waters.

[00:05:51]Strong GPS jamming over Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, UAE.

[00:05:56]US air assets appear to be active over the Middle East. Unconfirmed reports of activity over Iraq. This is generally going on all over the region right now.

[00:06:06]First daughter of President Trump, Ivanka Trump was the target of an IRGC plot to take her out as revenge for the killing of Kasm Solommani over six years ago. According to the New York Post, Iraqi national called Muhammad Bak Dahoud al-Sadi was captured in the US and admitted to making a pledge to kill Ivanka.

[00:06:29]So six years ago, not recent. Iran has issued a new notam closing large sections of airspace across the western part of the country until Monday with only limited civilian airport operations permitted during daytime hours under special authorization.

[00:06:47]Notice also states that all previous flight permissions have been suspended and operators must seek fresh approval from Iran's Civil Aviation Authority for IFR passenger flights.

[00:07:00]Freedom Plaz downtown DC is now full of a bunch of statues.

[00:07:05]Iran will consider any attack on its territory a resumption of the third Gulf War target Israel and the GCC countries regardless if the US or Israel act alone.

[00:07:17]source close to the IRGC told drop site that the Iranian retaliation in case of an attack by the US or Israel would result in the oil and gas infrastructure of the GCC countries coming under attack in the Houthis closing the Babal Mandab Strait blocking the Red Sea which remained off limits in the first phase of the conflict. US and Israel have also contained or excuse me continued to replenish their depleted assets in the region. Uh but Koshlam said the Iranian view is that despite the level of US force deployed having weathered the first confrontation and maintain its missile and drone capabilities, Tehran ultimately maintains escalation dominance in the standoff stated that Iran will not concede by force to any US demands and would even consider escalating the confrontation themselves based on what happens. They're sitting back and waiting and they can basically handle whatever is thrown at them. That's what they've learned. And so at this point, what they're going to do is they're going to try and wait it out. UAE is looking for trouble. They are building defenses around refineries to save them from drone attacks and preparing themselves for a new round. They want to follow this path to the end to stand besides Israel and become a second Israel in the region. The only country that refuses to accept the reality is the US. But they will have to accept it soon, either before or after a new round of war. They have only one way forward to come along with Iran and ask for the straight to be reopened through diplomacy. Eventually they will realize that like other countries that there is no military option to open the straight and the US needs to reach an agreement with Iran. And that is true.

[00:09:01]So now we're at a place where they they don't want to lose face. So you either think you're going to come up with a military solution which won't come and extend this sucker for a long time or you get egg on your face and say all right Iran we recognize that you're stronger than we thought and you guys can have control of the straight of Hormuz.

[00:09:21]So you tell me.

[00:09:24]France has banned Israeli Minister of National Security Beng from entering French territory. decision comes after he posted a controversial video showing him taunting detained activists from Gazabound flotillaa.

[00:09:41]Esmail bah says the straight of horn moons has nothing to do with America. A mechanism must be defined between us and Oman coastal countries. We are in talks with relevant organizations aware of the importance of this waterway to the international community. International community knows the insecurity is caused by the aggressive actions of America and the Zionist regime. They understand the reasonable or responsible action of Iran and Oman is to establish a mechanism for the safe passage of ships through this waterway and the interest of the international community.

[00:10:12]Translation, we're going to stick it to everybody and make money. What are we doing in this line with preserving national interests of Iran and Oman and coast of countries? Aims to ensure the safe passage of shipping. From this perspective, we expect all countries that value free trade maritime safety to understand the situation. translation.

[00:10:29]We got into a war without America. Now you see an opportunity to screw everybody open by using a waterway that used to be free and we're going to make it all come to us and which is going to just cause tensions and problems. We will continue our work with Oman in this regard. The issue of the state of war news is one of the topics to be discussed in this 14 article memorandum of understanding but more importantly it is about ending American piracy important for all countries because it is intensified in security important for us. We are targeted by American piracy.

[00:11:00]So here are the memorandum of understanding bullet points. Permanent end of the war on the entire region including Lebanon. US lifting the naval blockade. Iran opens a straight of horos. American military forces leave the region. Nuclear matters no uh to be discussed at a later stage. So sounds good, right? All right. Well, this is a Middle East spectator and this is where I go when I want to see if this thing is going to get shot down or accepted.

[00:11:26]He said as they say the devil's in the details the most certainly the case of the memorandum of understanding is that there is a practical mechanism to ensure US forges leave the region. Is that possible or is it just a loose commitment? Will there be a release of frozen funds? If yes, how many and when will they be released? Will the US grant Iran temporary oil sanctions waiverss for the duration of the remaining negotiations?

[00:11:51]Perhaps most importantly, it will be key whether Iran's reopening of the Hormuz includes the collection of tolls abiding by the Iranian maritime traffic separation scheme. Will it be allowed to have Iran control the Hormuz?

[00:12:08]And if Iran is allowed to collect tolls and ships have to get Iranian permission to pass the straight of Hormuz, that's a major American concession and practically grants Iran sovereignty over the strait.

[00:12:22]But if Iran has agreed to temporarily shelf the idea of toll collection, and they won't, the memorandum of understanding is less favorable. De uh details matter a lot. This all means nothing yet. He's right. So, they're going to keep coming about and jawbone.

[00:12:38]All right, we got a deal. We got a Oh, there's a memorandum of understanding.

[00:12:41]They're going to do this and they're going to do that. They're just It's all going to be great. We're all going to No.

[00:12:47]No.

[00:12:49]America wants them to give up their nuclear uh materials. Then they they said that's a non-starter.

[00:12:55]And Iran says we want to have control over the Straight of Hormuz. And America said that's a non-starter.

[00:13:01]So, everything else is agreed upon until those two things get worked out somehow.

[00:13:07]And they won't. Iran knows if they give up their nuclear uh materials, they're going to get the crap bombed out of them. America knows if they give up the control of the straight of horm. They're going to get egg on their face and they're going to look like a big So there it is, folks. You tell me.

[00:13:24]Okay. There's a deal. There's a deal.

[00:13:26]There's a deal. There's >> no there's not a deal. Shut up.

[00:13:30]President Donald Trump has just posted image to true social a map of the Middle East centered on Iran covered in the stars and stripes the United States of the Middle East.

[00:13:40]Follows the abrupt cancellation of his weekend trip to the Bahamas for the wedding of Don Jr. by a weekend at his property in Bedminister, New Jersey.

[00:13:50]Some progress has been made in the talks with Iran. There is a possibility that America might have something to announce about Iran in the coming days. There's a possibility that the sun will supernova in the next million years. Friends, thanks Marco.

[00:14:07]Iran has refused to budge on the topic of the straight of horn news in the memorandum of understanding. US but has acknowledged it will be one of the 14 points of the memorandum of understanding. Theran has not confirmed whether it will force the tolls in the waterway.

[00:14:22]Standard war news has nothing to do with America. mechanism put in place between us and Oman coastal states dialogue relevant authorities understand the importance of the water rate of the international community international community knows insecurity is caused by the aggressive actions of America issue of the straight horn is one of the topics that will be discussed in the 14-point memorandum of understanding but more importantly it is put in an end to American maritime piracy it's no dealb announced today that it received a message from Iranian foreign minister Abasarachi re reaffirming Tean's unwavering support for the Shiite proxy militia. That's basically saying, "We're not agreeing to anything. We're ready to go to war."

[00:15:03]Massive demonstration in Spain demanding the resignation of Pedro Sanchez. Tens of thousands of people marched through Madrid uh demanding the resignation of the socialist prime minister's government following multiple corruption scandals involving him and his wife and also the fact that he uh basically opened up the entire country to anybody with a set of legs to come up from Africa.

[00:15:27]Iran will not discuss nuclear program foreign ministry said to alazer of Iran.

[00:15:33]Pakistan and Iran couldn't agree on anything that was due to the nuclear program. The only thing that Iranians are willing to hear is the end of the war.

[00:15:41]Oh, look at that. Ukraine's military intelligence has received information from partners that Russia is preparing to strike using the Orchnik.

[00:15:49]Silinski said signs of combined strike on Ukraine, including Kiev, are visible.

[00:15:55]Russian madness is truly boundless.

[00:15:56]Please use shelters, he said.

[00:16:01]Meanwhile, US consumer sentiment officially falls to its lowest level on record, dating back to 1952, down 10% last month. Consumers now see inflation rising to 4.8% over the next 12 months. Puts the consumer sentiment index down 21% since February 2026 before the war. Not even the 1980s saw consumer sentiment this low.

[00:16:30]Kevin Warish has been sworn in as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve by the Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas.

[00:16:36]And Russia is selling its gold reserves at a rapid pace. Dropped 900,000 ounces first four months of 2026, lowest since February 2022. Gold prices average 4,800 per ounce. Same period. Russia sold the gold at market price. The sales are estimated generated 4.3 billion in proceeds. Russia's central bank began reducing its gold reserves last year after the finance ministry liquidated gold foreign currency assets from the national well-being fund to offset budget deficits driven by declining energy revenues before the rona bank of Russia used to be one of the world's largest official gold buyers taking nearly all domestically mined output till it halted purchases in 2020.

[00:17:21]They're using and selling gold to raise cash because the war and over the last six years the S&P 500 has risen 130% while US consumer sentiment has collapsed 55%.

[00:17:38]Lowest since data began in 1952.

[00:17:42]You are witnessing the formation of the biggest wealth divide and transfer in history.

[00:17:52]Prepare accordingly, friends. Okay, prepare accordingly.

[00:17:57]All right, that's your uh crisis report.

[00:18:01]By the way, if you like what we're doing, as I said on the uh original broadcast, not outside of take two. If you like what we're doing here, please consider joining us on Substack or as a member on YouTube or on Subscribear. It is literally 8 to 12 quarters a month, depending. I never change it. I never raise it.

[00:18:20]I know we're all hurting. I know we're all broke. I come out, I do as much as I can to get you guys informed as possible. So, when you're sitting there sh, you know, shuffling through the prepper channels that are telling you that your face is about to melt, you can come over here and go, "Wow, that's utter Prepper now just told me that uh this is what's going on." And here the the view from all sides and this isn't clickbait crap.

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