Raoul Pal: "If You Are Selling Right Now, You Completely Missed The Big Picture."

追加: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]The probability of a super cycle is is getting reasonably high now. If we're going from $2.5 trillion to hundred trillion, why the [ __ ] would you ever sell anything? I mean, that's that's what I keep getting into my head is like, unless you have to or want to, you literally wouldn't. You would just keep finding opportunities where it gets oversold to buy more because that's where it's going. And this is the biggest phase transition shift humanity's ever faced. Um, and the whole thesis of don't [ __ ] this up is this is you just keep hold of this trade in every guys that you've got it and ride the [ __ ] thing. Don't forget the earnings coming out of Anthropic is the fastest scaling of any company in the history of the world in by far the shortest period of time. It's 3 years.

[00:00:54]It's gone from zero to hundred billion in revenues.

[00:01:01]This is La La Land.

[00:01:02]>> What if everything you thought you knew about market cycles was wrong? What if recessions, crashes, and bare markets are no longer the dominant force driving finance? According to macro investor rule pal, we may be entering something far bigger than a normal bull or bare market. A super cycle driven not by fear or greed, but by liquidity, government debt, artificial intelligence, and a global race for technological dominance.

[00:01:29]And if he's right, this isn't just another market cycle. It's the beginning of a completely new economic era. Please take a little time to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and turn on post notifications for more videos like this. You can also check out our other videos on cryptocurrencies and the overall digital asset space and drop your comments and observations in the comment section below. Everything you do helps with the YouTube algorithm and immensely contributes to the channel's growth. Thanks and enjoy the video. The probability of a super cycle is is getting reasonably high now because of this massive capex spend that cannot stop. The race with China is on. The administration wants this to happen.

[00:02:14]They need it for votes and everything else. So, they will push for this whole thing. Liquidity looks like it'll come in any way, shape, or form. Now, because bill is the main part of the liquidity cycle, we're actually losing cyclicality because of it.

[00:02:31]Even though we've got the big debt rollovers, but we've got 9 trillion to do this year, n 10 trillion next year, it's like it's ongoing. So the point you and I have been talking about for maybe a year and a half, maybe 2 years is we thought that after this cycle would be a super cycle and now we're kind of starting to think, you know what, maybe we don't get a full liquidity down cycle here. Sure, we'll get market corrections. We'll get sideways trends for six months, whatever it is. But really speaking, we could see an extended extremely hot business cycle that runs. And the only thing that would null and void that is if the bond market says no [ __ ] way, which is why Bessant is over in China and Japan trying to stop that happening by getting more buyers at the long end. So it's kind of anything over like five five and a half percent of 10 year notes you start to say okay this could decouple but we also know the reaction function is the moment that happens they do something so it's kind of they don't want it to happen they'll use some vague form of yield curve control to keep this happening so I kind of muring towards the super cycle which is the dangerous thing cuz somebody on here is going to say you know after we have some liquidity cycle you said it was a super cycle I'm not I'm saying probabilistically it's increasing and you You know, when everybody said, "That's it. The party's over. It's the end of the bull market. We can all go away." The market did exactly what we suggested, which has come up. And this was exactly to do. And I think you you should show the ch up that chart in a bit, the one we looked at this morning, you and I, which is the US liquidity chart. I It's like it's [ __ ] perfect.

[00:04:08]Um, so, you know, that seems to be playing out as expected. The liquidity flow is happening. It's all on track for what we expect.

[00:04:16]I still think crypto will outperform uh tech stocks uh at the next phase of the cycle. So I think that's pretty good. Um I won't go through most of these. The other chart I'm very closely following is Zcash um which has been a a great one. And I think somewhere here we're going to be doing a another one of these kind of inverse head and shoulders continuation patterns. Yeah. comes down, breaks through, next phase of acceleration. So, I kind of like that one as well. People are so freaked out about the cyclicality in crypto um that they miss the bigger picture. Now, we're building that dashboard that hopefully will come out soon, which gives people the ability to buy the two standard deviation over oversold and sell it when it's high. You can take some lifestyle chips off. It makes it so it's not just waiting for when I do mine. And it's like you can make a your own methodology. You can choose it. You can do it. Um that's fine. But really, if we're going from $2.5 trillion to hundred trillion, why the [ __ ] would you ever sell anything? I mean, that's that's what I keep getting into my head is like, unless you have to or want to.

[00:05:28]You literally wouldn't. You would just keep finding opportunities where it gets oversold to buy more because that's where it's going. And you know, if we think about the agent economy and its infinite tan, we think about the clarity act getting passed. We think about the entire [ __ ] financial system building on on crypto rails. Think about ID.

[00:05:48]Think about agentic ID, robotic ID, human ID. Think of all of these things and you're going to sell it because R and Julian thinks the liquidity cycle is going to slow down for a bit. It's [ __ ] bananas. And I I I'm kind of I kind of get pissed off with it now. Um, even though I understand people need it, but I'm just when I look at the opportunity and I present it and I talk about it and we're at this moment in time, the fastest acceleration of technology in all of human history and we're trying to time technology is stupid. That's anyway, that's my rant over.

[00:06:23]>> No, that's why we're here. Um, no, I I totally agree. So, uh, that's >> that's why our JPEGs that's why our JPEGs will do so well is cuz we can't trade them because they're illquid and having a liquid JPEGs means you just hold them for 10 years and before you know it's something you bought for, you know, 25 grand is worth $2 half million and you haven't had to do anything except look it in your wallet and think, "What a beautiful piece of art." It's not that difficult. I I um was talking to a friend of mine uh earlier this week about the the piece that we just published at GMI and he pointed me to the last bit which I reread this morning which I think is just so good and it says the world spent the past 2 years teaching AI to think. The next 20 years will be spent teaching it to see, move and build. Every step requires hardware the world has not yet manufactured.

[00:07:14]Energy uh energy the grids have not been generated yet and the rails and the financial system um has not yet deployed. Every step is investable. This is not the late stage of an old cycle.

[00:07:26]It's the early stage of a new one and the buildout has only begun. Welcome to the exponential age. Exactly. And what we're doing is fully transitioning between the exponential age, which is the acceleration phase where technology starts compounding into the economic singularity. This is the move we're making right now where the old rails are no longer fit for intelligent for siliconbased speed. Right? Don't forget silicon processes a million times faster. That's six orders of magnitude faster than the human neuron. Nothing is set up for this. and we have to rebuild everything from scratch. And that is what's underway. This is the biggest phase transition shift humanity's ever faced. Um, and the whole thesis of don't [ __ ] this up. Is this you just keep hold of this trade in every guys that you've got it and ride the [ __ ] thing.

[00:08:24]>> Yeah. And it's not just to the the point of this the the capex super cycle which we've been outlining and talking about really for over a year now which is kind of coming into focus with semis up now 80% yearonear but it's also that another thing I I wrote about in the article is we're going to go through the largest immigration event in human history only it's not humans it's agents and robots >> and again none of that infrastructure has really been built out it's being built out now >> that's right and you know we're going to shift from the magic formula of GDP equals population growth plus debt growth uh plus productivity growth into the economic singularity version which is AI plus robots plus humans and productivity is how much intelligence you can produce per unit of energy.

[00:09:12]>> Yeah. And then debt will get eroded away because GDP growth >> so strong >> will be so strong and inflation will be very subdued over the period of time that when you look back like the 1950s and60s you ended up going from 120% of debt to GDP down to about 10 and we'll do the same all over again. The other thing, and I was um doing some work on this this morning, is people keep bringing up the chilipe, the most expensive the market's ever been.

[00:09:41]Uh and you're like, you don't understand what debasement does to the denominator, because what you're allowing is price keeps going up because of debasement, the price of a stock, but the earnings grow with GDP growth. Unless you happen to be in the intelligence business and then your [ __ ] earnings are going vertical.

[00:10:03]>> I mean, don't forget the earnings coming out of Anthropic is the fastest scaling of any company in the history of the world in by far the shortest period of time. It's 3 years. It's gone from zero to hundred billion in revenues.

[00:10:23]This is La La Land. and it did most of it last year alone. So it went from like 10 billion to a hundred billion in a year. Nothing has ever come close to this.

[00:10:35]>> At the core of Pal's philosophy is one emotional truth. Trying to time this transformation is dangerous. He argues that many investors are too focused on short-term cycles, corrections, and timing exits. But in a world where technology is compounding exponentially, stepping out of the market for too long may be more costly than volatility itself. His mindset is simple. Buy when assets are deeply oversold. Hold through volatility. Add exposure during structural trends. Avoid overtrading long-term transformations. Because if the world is moving from 2.5 trillion crypto to a potential 100 trillion digital economy, then timing every dip perfectly becomes irrelevant. This is the question Raul Pal ultimately forces every investor to confront. Are we late in the cycle or are we early in something much bigger? His answer is clear. We are early.

[00:11:30]>> Look, it looks good to me. I like the chart >> and it's worked. It's worked very well and it doesn't we don't expect it to be perfect. It will not be perfect but contextually speaking feels like the market should be strong into the summer and that makes sense if liquidity is the dominant factor.

[00:11:48]>> Yeah. And then we need to figure out how high we get and whether or not you know what the sentiment's like at the time.

[00:11:54]But as I' as I keep saying, we don't necessarily need to play the TGA drain because the difference between a TGA drain with QT drain is that that's the amplifier. Whereas when you have QE either from the banks or the Fed, the TGA no longer is the amplifier, but just creates volatility around the trend.

[00:12:14]>> You know what's going to happen if we don't say to people, oh, we need to be careful of this and it happens. People say, you didn't tell us. And if we do tell people it didn't happen, they're saying you [ __ ] You know, it's only the TGA. So there is no winning for us in this. And I can already read the comment section in July where we're being scathed for whichever we say here.

[00:12:35]So do your own research. Figure it out yourselves. Uh because there is no upside for us. Literally um expected future expected value from us making a call on this is negative in every circumstance.

[00:12:49]And what I'm saying is what I'm just saying is keep an open mind. You know, it's >> I've had this whole thesis around this universal code that everything is funneling from energy into intelligence and it's driving the geopolitical process. It's driving the investment process. It's driving literally everything right now. And what we're getting into is this funnel moment where this Trump administration, which was basically chosen by the accelerationist, if you remember, it's backed by the crypto lobby and by all of the Democrats who used to be uh all of the tech overlords who used to be Democrats, all flipped because they all knew that this chance was the chance because we're going to by the time we get to the change of administration, we will have AGI, we will have crypto everywhere, all of this stuff. So, it's been hurtling towards this. Now, we're getting to the summer where everything has to resolve.

[00:13:44]Everything has to resolve for Trump for the midterms because again, if if um I divided by E continues to play out, I intelligence needs to accelerate, then it really has to have the uh Republicans winning the midterms. It's not necessary, but it's highly the most efficient path for this to happen. So it feels that all obstacles clear out the way. Now I'm not sure people realize even the governments realize this is what they're doing, but this is what they're doing. Trump is getting the Clarity Act across the line as we speak.

[00:14:19]I said that was going to happen because it had to happen because the crypto lobby and what needs to happen before the midterms. We will see similar with AI because that's going to come too. We have now got the change of Walsh. He's been voted in. Walsh is the Greenspan appointment of the 1950s appointment.

[00:14:38]He's going to run it hot. We will have um um we will have financial repression and they will let productivity take the sting out of CPI um and keep core CPI lower. That's what they're going to do. That's what in place. He's the tech accelerationist.

[00:14:57]He's a crypto guy. He's a prolific tech investor. He understands the game.

[00:15:01]Productivity is the game. Trump in the meantime is with Elon Jensen and about a hundred others of all of the tech leaders in the United States have all gone to China and Julian and I have talked for a long time about a grand bargain that's coming and we think this is the stage of the grand bargain. Iran, Venezuela is all part of the same picture which is get the cost of energy lower, get the Chinese, the Japanese, the South Koreans to own as much of the long bonds as possible. The ESLR takes care of the short end plus stable coins too, which is why stable coins were so important because it finances the deficit. Trump's going to negotiate here with the Chinese maybe to give them a lower dollar in exchange. They will buy the long end. Um there'll be some kind of agreements on trade, some agreements on who gets what technology. That's why Jensen's there.

[00:15:52]Um there's going to be some agreement over access to Nvidia.

[00:15:56]This is to avoid going to war over Taiwan, which nobody can do because it slows down the intelligence side because all of the chit fabs are there. So there has to be a splitting up of the two regions into the US and China. The only two people who can compete in the AI race. That is what is going on in this negotiation in my belief. The weaker dollar is another part. The UAE being given swap lines. Bessent going to South Korea and Japan. They're b he's basically saying you know the euro dollar system that lends to China is out of those countries and he's basically going to offer the Chinese liquidity and the Chinese liquidity will flow through to the system in the same way that we expect global liquidity to come through.

[00:16:38]It allows the dollar to weaken which weakens financial conditions. It'll allow oil price to come down because there's going to be agreements on Iran at the end of this. We have Venezuela wrapped in as well. This is a very big setup happening and it all has to get done and agreed and see things happening over the summer because the elections coming up. So it's a crucial time and it seems to be playing out in the business cycle markets charts. It's all uh corroborating there. Enthropit now looks like it's going to go from 44 billion to 50 billion which makes it like a 100% yearon-year uh rate of change that's happening.

[00:17:21]Their compute is they're completely out of compute. I can see it in my claw.

[00:17:25]They've had to negotiate from Elon plus gets a bunch of other compute. Jensen's telling us, AMD are telling us, Intel are telling us, just the endless amount of compute cuz Jivvon's paradox is paying out is the more compute you give people, the cheaper it is, the more people want. And it's never going to stop.

[00:17:45]>> So unless there's a complete paradigm shift, the demand for this um semi cycle is going to be at least into 2030 and beyond. And and I've been saying I mean not now obviously but I do think maybe in 6 months time or whatever it is as these things play out you know we we we should release the compute cycle article for everyone cuz it's really important >> for people to understand what's happening >> you know obviously that's at GMI now and it doesn't even need to be this year but at some point people need to see >> no I think I I think we'll try and release it earlier and maybe for everybody just cuz it's really important people understand all this framing People are still struggling with the universal code framing. Um, but everyone will understand over time. Like when we started the exponential age, everyone thought I was a total [ __ ] This uh universal code, I know I'm right. Um, you know, hopefully people saw that sweet presentation where I applied it to blockchain valuations. We applied it to the HIMS valuation. We applied it to the Japanese um market situation. I've just applied it to um to Walsh and I've just applied it to um the Trump uh China delegation.

[00:19:01]Mo mostly it'll be right.

[00:19:03]>> No. And the only reason I'm saying at some point we we should release it is because I I noticed my language is changing. You know what I mean? And I'm talking in a way that I haven't historically, you know, spoken and and therefore it's important that people understand the concepts you and I are referring to in order to make sense of everything.

[00:19:21]>> You know, you and I talked about this at the GMI round table over drinks late at night is like the business cycle is less important than it was.

[00:19:32]Not that it's not important, but it's not the dominant factor anymore.

[00:19:37]>> The dominant factor is the secular accelerating trends. And there's and that's the way it's going to be for a while I think. But we'll see. You know, maybe we're wrong. We'll change our minds. We're not saying definitely definitely definitely. We're just saying as we see it, this is how we see it that the business cycle becomes less dominant uh of the factor than both liquidity plus the secular acceleration of of uh energy into units of intelligence. And this also explains, you know, in relation to my last video update in MIT, you know, there's been this big bifurcation, right, between, you know, remember that famous chart from BCA, which we refer to like AI driven, you know, GDP and then like everything that's more historically linked to like industrial production. And this is why, and I'll say it again, why Heinrich has been wrong for three years, because he's using an old business cycle macro framework to call for a recession.

[00:20:33]Because certain areas of the economy are not quite recessionary, but at least subdued, which is why the ISM is doing this, because on one hand, you've got one part of the economy that's doing this, the other you got another part which is doing this. So the ISM is almost the average of that, but you can't actually see what's going on inside. But that old business cycle framework will never work again.

[00:20:55]>> Early in AI dot early in digital assets, early in global liquidity expansion, early in the transformation of money, finance and technology itself. And that means the biggest mistake investors can make is assuming the old rules still fully apply. So where does that leave us? According to Raul Pal, the world is no longer operating under traditional boom and bust logic. Instead, we are entering a phase defined by structural liquidity expansion, technological acceleration, governmentbacked capex cycles, and exponential productivity growth. Markets will still correct.

[00:21:30]Volatility will still exist. But the long-term direction, in his view, is unmistakably upward. And the biggest risk, not participating in the transformation because you were waiting for the perfect dip. Because in a super cycle, the trend itself becomes the opportunity.