The Last 3 Crashes All Had An Exit. This One Doesn't.

[00:00:00]The last three market crashes were devastating for lots of people. 2000, 2008, 2020, each one was bigger, deeper, and each time they got fixed eventually, right? The markets came back, your money came back, but there's another crash on the horizon right now, recession, overvaluation, the next bubble, whatever. And while most are expecting an even bigger, an even deeper version of the previous three, what's coming next won't be anything like the previous three because that didn't get fixed.

[00:00:25]They got pushed, right? The problem wasn't fixed. it was moved up one floor.

[00:00:30]Now, understanding this is going to be the difference of which side of this next crash that you're on. It's going to be the difference of what happens to your retirement and your future. So, in this video, I'm going to break down the three floors they've [music] already used to bury the last three crashes. I want to show you what the coming fourth floor is. I want to show you the one thing to watch so you can see this turn when it's actually coming. And I want to show you in the position you can take before everybody else gets there. All right, you ready? Let's go. All right, so let's jump in. Let's talk about the next financial crash.

[00:00:59]Everyone's ready for the next financial crash. You clicked on this to learn about the financial crash, and it's coming. 2000, 2008, 2020, and there's something coming here. And what happens is a lot of people think, well, whatever happened here, here, and here is going to happen again. Uh there's a saying that says generals always fight the last war. And so they think, well, whatever happened last time that we got attacked on the south, south side, so let's reinforce the south side. But most likely, it happens differently. There's a story I believe after World War II um there were some engineers in the air force that were looking back looking at the planes that were coming back from battle and they were looking at them just full of bullet holes and they're like let's find all these planes and then the areas that they're getting hit let's reinforce those so we can protect these planes and one of the smart engineers there one of the few smart engineers I guess said hang on hang on hang on the these bullet holes didn't matter they didn't they didn't take the planes down what we should do is go look at the planes that crashed and let's reinforce those areas and so we have to look at things differently and so if we just understand what happened here and we try to plan for the same thing it's not going to lead us to the to the outcome that we want. So let's understand what happened but then understand the mechanisms behind this.

[00:02:05]Now let's go back to understand what happened to these ladders the first the second the third and the fourth one that's about to happen so we can understand how it could happen and what we could do to protect ourselves or more importantly advantage ourselves from this. Okay, so if we go back to 2000, this was the.com crash, right? A lot of you guys maybe are old enough to remember that. I lived through that. So the.com bubble happened and all that money starts draining out. We can see so 2000 was the.com bubble. Well, as that money is draining out, it had to go somewhere. Where does it go? Right?

[00:02:36]Money is like energy. It doesn't disappear. It needs to go somewhere. So Paul Krugman at the time said that, hey, what we need to do is create a housing uh market. We need Greenspan, head of frozen, needs to create a housing bubble. So we we kick the can up the road and 2008 becomes a housing bubble.

[00:02:54]Of course, you know how that turns out.

[00:02:55]We had all the homes. Then the banks started buying all the um the mortgages.

[00:02:59]They started packaging them up, selling them off as a collateral securities. And then that caused not just a housing collapse, but an entire banking collapse. So then that got kicked up the road um to more of a sovereign system.

[00:03:11]So now the government, the Federal Reserve and the government took all this bad debt on their books and two 2020 happened. Of course that was the COVID crisis, but we already lost the stock market. Then we lost the housing market and the banking market. Then we went to the sovereign level and that happened.

[00:03:29]So we can look at this in size. I'll tell you where the fourth level is in a second, but just take a look at this so you can see it. Here it is. In 2008, this got kicked up in the housing market and went to the federal. So the Fed had to expand their balance sheet. All the debt went to the government to the sovereign. Then you can see we trucked along right here and then 2020 came and then look at the amount of balance sheet increase that had to happen in order to kick this up to the next level. Now we're not at this level yet. This will be the fourth level. This is the one that's coming. What happens is most people look at this and think this is what's going to happen again. They expect the same thing. Just to see the size of this again. This is the TARP package. I can remember back in 2008.

[00:04:10]Anybody remember 2008? Drop me a comment down below. And I remember they talked about bailing out the banks and there's this TARP package. It's going to be $700 billion. At the time I can remember thinking, no, like they can't do this.

[00:04:21]Like 700 billion. It's insane. And now that's just like we don't even know what that number is anymore. But you can see so 700 billion is what they proposed. We can see the total Fed balance sheet was about 1.3 trillion. Now there's some dark data that shows it might actually be you know 10 to 20 times more than that. Uh we don't really know but we can see that number. Now the key thing that I want to show you here though is that right now what we have in this ladder is we can see that all of this kicking the can down the road has made the government's tools that they have at their disposal to fight these things less effective. So, for example, we can see the 2-year Treasury yield versus the Fed funds rate. So, the Fed sets the rate. When you hear Jerome Powell and now Kevin Worsh at the Fed saying, "We're going to raise rates or low rates." They're lowering or raising the Fed funds rate. But the Fed funds rate, as you can see, follows the 2-year Treasury yield. The market sets the two-year Treasury yield. They set the Fed funds rate. And as you can see, they're pretty closely locked. A lot of people would say, and I would probably agree, the Fed doesn't really have any control over this. the market does the Fed sort of just follows it to act like they have some control. They can influence it and sure they can move money into different parts of the market to affect this buy down the yields etc. But what we can see is this divergence right here and this is pretty important.

[00:05:37]So what we can see is the effective funds rate is starting to diverge. It's far further behind than where the market is pricing it to be. So the market is saying hey it should be way higher here but the Fed is still holding it down here. That's a problem. We can see that the Fed is starting to lose control.

[00:05:55]Okay. But the key piece here before we move on is that in this market, the market crashed. In order to bring it back up, we had to create another bubble. Then the market crashed. The S&P 500 was down 60% here. 7 years it took to get back to all-time high. In order to get it up, we had to kick it up to here to the sovereign level. In 2020, we saw another big crash. And in order to kick it back up, we had to in uh debase the dollar massively. The question is what does this fourth cycle look like?

[00:06:23]What does it look like when all the tools of the past are gone? What will the next one look like? What will give?

[00:06:29]Well, the first thing we have to understand is the measure. And what I'm talking about the measure is the tape measure. How do we measure wealth? How do we measure assets? How do we measure buying power? Now, I talk about this quite often, the measuring tape. And now the measuring tape, depending on what measuring tape you're using, you're going to get a different measurement. In some measure measuring tapes, it looks like you're making a lot of money. Some measuring tapes, it looks like you're losing a lot of money. What am I talking about? Okay. Well, let's take a look at this chart right here. This is the S&P 500 priced in dollars, but it's also priced in gold. So, the one thing you want to do in order to understand this fourth crash that's about to happen is you have to understand really what money is or what assets are is preserving purchasing power because we don't want money. Money is a means. A means to the ends. What ends? the goods and services that we want and everything's a trade.

[00:07:17]So home, a US median home is worth about $460,000, but it's also worth whatever a few thousand barrels of oil or a few thousand ounces of gold or uh a couple of Bitcoin, right? Five, six Bitcoin, whatever, right? But everything's a trade. It's all measured against each other. So we can price the S&P 500 in dollars and we can price it in gold. And when we do that, we see two very different pictures. All right. So after 2020, which is right about here, this kind of tracked and then it started to diver diverge. And what we can see that the S&P 500 priced in dollars looks like I'm rich. Oh my gosh, my retirement account is looking so good. I'm going to be so so rich when I retire. But the reality is if you price it in gold, you see you're actually down here and your p that means your purchasing power has gone down. So in dollars, you look rich.

[00:08:09]But in true purchasing power, what you can actually buy with it, the vacations you can buy, the clothes you can buy, the homes you can buy, the fuel you can buy, you're actually more poor on paper.

[00:08:17]So, it's important to understand the measuring stick. And we can see this by the price of gold. Okay, this is just the price of gold, but we can see how much it went up. It's pulled back a little bit, but it was up to over $5,5400 an ounce at one point, and it's pulled back. And of course, that overlays with this. This is the US money supply. So as the money supply continues to go up, then it continues to distort that measuring stick. It makes asset prices go up, but it shows your um purchasing power going down. All right. Now, this is an example of that in other currencies. So this is not just a US dollar problem. This is gold's appreciation in each currency. So here we have CNY, we have USD, we have uh CRW, and we have Japan's dollar. And what we can see is they're up across the board. So what does that tell us? That tells us it's not a currency problem.

[00:09:09]Like it's not a it's not a a US dollar problem. It's a fiat problem. It's a sovereign level problem. Remember back to 2020 after the docom bubble got kicked up to the housing bubble and the banking bubble. Then it got kicked up to the sovereign bubble. So in 2020, all the central banks, all the governments around the world had to stimulate their economies at the same time because of course they shut all the economies down.

[00:09:31]And so now what we're seeing is a total breakdown in all fiat currencies, not just dollars. And so we this, as I said, it's not a dollar story. And we can see that gold is at the top of this. And it's not just gold as in price. What we can see here is this is um the European Central Bank, the ECB, put this out just June 2nd of this year, 2026. They say gold has overtaken US treasuries as the world's top reserve asset. It's pretty big. Mark the date. June 2nd, 2026. RIP.

[00:10:03]That starts to change everything. All right. So, uh, Mark, you're talking too long. It's It's getting too long. Just tell me what's happening on that fourth floor. Like, what's the next crash going to look like? Okay. Well, let's take a look at that. The top floor, the fourth floor. Let's take a look at that. And so, right now, what we can see is the US is starting to look more like emerging markets. When you look at the US Treasury market, which is the bedrock of the global financial system, it's looking more like emerging markets. What do I mean by that? We can see here monthly Treasury holdings change. This means the amount of treasuries, the bedrock of the financial system, the amount of treasuries being held by other governments and how that's being changed over time. And what we can see is right here, it's starting to collapse. So it goes, you know, up down up down up down up down a little bit more down. And look at this complete collapse right here. We can see this is the amount of treasuries being held by oil importing emerging markets. Why oil importing emerging markets? Well, because they're the ones that are susceptible to these prices.

[00:11:00]They're the ones that have to maintain purchasing power for real goods and real services. Why important to understand that? And we can see that this is synchronized. Again, this is not a US dollar problem. As I said, the third floor kicked it up. It's now a sovereign crisis. Okay? It's not a it's not a it's not a tech stock bubble. It's not a housing bubble. It's not a banking bubble. It's now a sovereign level bubble. We can see this right here. This is the 10-year sovereign yields. And not just of one country, the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, and Canada. And as we can see, they're all up, up, up, up, and up. They're all going up at the exact same time. Yields are going up, currencyy's going down. So on paper, our assets look really good, but we can see in real time that the yields up and the currency down. And at the same time as that's happening, as the governments are running out of money, we can see unfortunately for a lot of people, the savings rates, the United States personal saving rates has been plunging to new record loads at 2.6% savings rate right now. So there's not a lot of cushion at the consumer level at the same time. And this this now starts to make more sense when I tell you again that gold has overtaken US treasuries as the top reserve asset.

[00:12:14]Now, if we look back to some of the smartest investors in the game to understand this specifically, what we're trying to understand because it's a sovereign debt crisis, we want to understand what that means, why it's there, and what it means, what we should do about it. So, if we if it's a sovereign debt crisis, we want to look at look to somebody who's an expert in sovereign debt. Bill Gross, he's known as the bond king. So, if there's anybody knows anything about this, it's Bill Gross. And he says right here, quote, "Hegemonic decay and worries over future government liabilities are a major cause." So the cause of this problem is the worries. The cause is the worries over what? The liabilities, the future of the government because of the liabilities they have. It's too many.

[00:12:56]The debt's too high. You can't pay it back. You're stuck. Inflation, all these things. And that is the problem that we have right now. That and that's all showing you that it's at that fourth level. the sovereign level. Okay. So, what does that mean? Just tell me, Mark, just shut up and just tell me what the next crash looks like. Okay. Here's what the next crash looks like. You ready?

[00:13:14]What it means is no S&P 500 going down.

[00:13:19]You see, in 2000, in 2008, the S&P 500 went down by 60% as I said earlier, and it took 7 years to get back to all-time highs. This time, it's something different because we don't have that room. We don't have that buffer. So this time on paper it looks like you're going up but in reality it's crashing right in front of your eyes. As I already showed you the divergence between the S&P 500 in dollars versus gold. On paper it looks like it's going up but re the reality is it's crashing. The reality is you are losing purchasing power in real time. Let's just break down what does a crash even mean? So back to 2008 or 2000. In 2008 my home lost half its value. My retirement account lost half its value. My business suffered. I don't make as much income. And so because of all of that, I can't enjoy the same quality of life I had before. So the crash equals my standard of living drops. The crash equals I eat out less.

[00:14:17]I go on less vacations. I don't buy the whatever I wanted. The crash equals my standard of living went down. So what we're what we're seeing here is a crash.

[00:14:27]Not as asset prices plunging, but the outcome is the same. The quality of my life goes down. I can't afford as many of those things that I used to afford.

[00:14:36]So it's not the S&P 500 going down.

[00:14:38]That's what everyone's looking at.

[00:14:39]They're looking at this and not realizing it's happening right over here. So the markets go up, but you feel poor. You are poor. It's a difference of a recession or a deficit. The last three times this happened, people found a safe haven in cash. If I could just time the market right, that's why you're watching this video, right? If I could just tell you when you should sell everything and go to cash, then you'd have the chance to and then I have to tell you when to buy back in. And then then if I told you when to buy back in, you come out ahead, right? Except for what going to cash is the wrong move.

[00:15:11]What we can see here that if you what what you can see here is the US federal surplus as the divided by the deficit as a share of GDP. And so you can see here from the year 2000 this is the recession right here a little bit 3 4%.

[00:15:27]2008 it dropped down to almost 10%. 2020 15%. And this next crash wherever it's going to be there's going to be so much stimulus. But where does it come from?

[00:15:38]It comes from the printing. It comes from the dollars. It comes from the debasement. So while most people are looking for this in the next crash, what's going to happen is this. The fourth rung, the fourth step of the ladder is just a massive print. The fourth step of the ladder, the crash that you're worried about happening where you wake up one day and your assets are cut in half. What you're finding out the reality is that your savings buys you half as much as you thought it would. That's already happening right now. So how do we measure this? We need to think about our assets measured in dollars versus measured in scarce resources. So take your retirement account, take your S&P 500, sure, measure it in USD, of course, but then see how much it's worth in gold or oil or Bitcoin.

[00:16:22]Any of your assets that you have, think about them, sure, in dollars, but you have to start looking at another measuring stick if you want to see this crash unfolding and prepare yourself in real [music] time. Okay. Now, the exit though, right? The three previous crashes, 2000, 2008, and 2020, they all got kicked up. They all got buried. They all got papered over. Let's push the dot bubble up into the housing bubble. Let's push the housing bubble into the banking system. Let's push the banking system up into the sovereign level. And here we are. But there's there's no there's no levels over the sovereign level. There's no balance sheets over the sovereign level. So there's nowhere to kick it up to, which is why it now has to be papered over and printed away. That's why this time it's the dollar, not the chart. It's not the stock market, it's the dollar this time. And how we see this, how we learn to move and and react off of this is we have to learn to measure with hard assets. If you change your measuring stick, if you change your approach, you can change your life. You can change your your trajectory of your life with your assets. Stop looking at the nominal value. Look at the purchasing power instead. You'll see the crash happen in real time. All right, that's what I got. Let me know what you think in the comments down below. As I always say, to your success, I'm out.