Trump's reassurance is disingenuous - missiles are flying in the gulf again

Hinzugefügt: 2026-06-05

[00:00:01]Iran and the US are trading missiles again and this uh this is not what a ceasefire should look like. One of the most extraordinary aspects of this conflict is the widening gap between what politicians are saying and what is actually happening. Donald Trump tells the world that negotiations are still progressing. He insists conversations with Iran continue daily. He tells critics to sit back and relax. Marco Rubio appears before Congress and speaks about diplomacy, frameworks, and possible agreements. Yet, every time we hear these optimistic statements, we seem to wake up the following morning to another missile strike, another interception, another military operation, another threat. And this week has been no different. American forces struck Iranian military facilities on Kesh Island. The United States says these were defensive actions. Iran says they were acts of aggression. Iran then launched missiles and drones towards Kuwait and Bahrain. America American and Bahraini air defenses intercepted. Some of them, others reportedly fell short.

[00:01:06]Yet in Kuwait, there are reports of damage to airport facilities and injuries. Flights were suspended.

[00:01:12]Civilian life has been disrupted. I am old-fashioned enough to believe that when missiles are flying, airports are closing, ships are being attacked, military bases are on alert, we are not witnessing a successful ceasefire. We're witnessing a war. And a ceasefire is not simply the absence of a formal declaration of hostilities. A ceasefire means a reduction in violence. A ceasefire means stability. It means ordinary people begin to believe tomorrow will be safer than today. None of those conditions currently exist.

[00:01:40]Instead, we have a bizarre situation where politicians speak the language of peace while militaries continue the language of war. Iranian officials appear deeply skeptical about American claims of progress. Thran continues to insist that Washington changes its demands repeatedly. Iranian negotiators complain of contradictory positions.

[00:02:01]Some Iranian sources have openly suggested talks have stalled altogether.

[00:02:05]Meanwhile, Trump insists discussions continue every day. Both claims cannot simultaneously be true. Somebody is either exaggerating progress or deliberately obscuring reality. And this matters because diplomacy depends on trust and trust is already in short supply. If one side believes the other is moving the goalpost every few days, meaningful negotiations become almost impossible. And this is why I remain deeply skeptical whenever politicians announce that peace is just around the corner. Peace is not measured by press conferences. It's measured by events.

[00:02:38]And the events tell a very different story. Secondly, the danger of escalation is growing rather than shrinking. One of the great mistakes made by political leaders throughout history is the belief that they remain in control of events. Leaders often imagine wars as chess games. The reality is usually closer to a forest fire. You may light the first spark. You may you rarely control where the flames spread.

[00:03:01]Look at what's happened over the last week. The conflict has expanded far beyond Iran itself. Kuwait has been drawn directly into the crisis. Bahrain has been drawn directly in. Commercial shipping has become a target. Civil aviation has been disrupted. Oil markets continue to react nervously. Iran threatens to close the straight of Hormuz completely. Insurance costs for shipping remain elevated. International investors are unconvinced that peace is close. And this is the sort of pattern that historians recognize immediately.

[00:03:31]Wars rarely remain confined to their original boundaries. The first world war began with an assassination in Sievo. I stood on the footsteps of uh Princeeps where he fired the gun and assassinated the arch duke. I stood there years and years ago when those footsteps were little little little um iron plates in the pavement. Within weeks, much of Europe was engulfed. The Vietnam conflict escalated incrementally over years. The Iraq war began with promises of quick resolution, what thunder and ore or ore and thunder, whatever it was, and regional transformation. Reality proved rather different. The problem today is not merely the missiles themselves. The problem is the accumulation of risk.

[00:04:18]Each strike creates pressure for retaliation. Each retaliation creates pressure for a response. Each response creates pressure for escalation. And before long, the original political objectives have become obscured beneath the simple desire not to appear weak.

[00:04:33]And that's the oldest trap in international politics. Nobody wishes to be seen backing down. Everybody insists they're acting defensively. And the result is often a cycle that becomes increasingly difficult to escape. And there's another worrying factor. The messages coming from the various participants are increasingly contradictory. Iran claims it successfully struck American targets.

[00:04:55]The United States insists every attack failed. Iran insists Lebanon remains central to any settlement. Washington focuses primarily on nuclear issues and maritime access. Trump claims talks continue daily. Iranian sources claim negotiations have stalled. The Israelis continue their operations in Lebanon.

[00:05:15]The Americans simultaneously claim progress has been towards deescalation.

[00:05:19]All these things can't be true at the same time. And that confusion is dangerous because confusion breeds miscalculation. Miscalculation breeds escalation and escalation breeds war.

[00:05:30]One of the most revealing comments this week came from Iranian military figures suggesting that renewed hostilities with the United States appear increasingly inevitable. And that should concern everyone because wars often become self-fulfilling prophecies. If military planners begin preparing for inevitable conflict, they start acting accordingly and defensive deployments appear offensive. Routine patrols appear threatening. Signals become misread, intentions become misunderstood, the margin for error narrows, and the consequences of error grow larger. And that's precisely the environment we're entering. Thirdly, the crisis exposes the central weakness in Donald Trump's approach to foreign policy. And there's lots of things that are weak about Trump. He likes the theater of diplomacy. He likes traumatic announcements. He likes declaring victory. He likes presenting himself as the indispensable deal maker. But making deals and sustaining peace are not necessarily the same thing. A real peace process requires consistency and patience and credibility. And most importantly, it requires a willingness to tell your own allies things they don't want to hear. And this is where Trump increasingly faces an impossible dilemma. Consider the position he now occupies. On the one side sits stands Iran and on the other stands Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump clearly wants some form of agreement with Thran. He also wants to maintain strong links with Israel.

[00:06:59]Yet those two objectives are becoming increasingly difficult to reconcile.

[00:07:03]Reports suggest Trump has become frustrated with Netanyahu. He's using very strange language over his operations in Lebanon. We've heard stories of the angry angry telephone conversations, reports of Trump accusing Netanyahu of undermining wider diplomatic efforts, reports of genuine tension between the two leaders. Who made those reports public and why?

[00:07:27]Whether every detail is accurate matters less than the broader reality and that is clearly about growing disagreement.

[00:07:33]Trump wants diplomacy. Netanyahu continues pursuing military objectives.

[00:07:38]Iran watches these developments and concludes that Washington either cannot or will not restrain its closest regional ally and that weakens American credibility at the negotiating table.

[00:07:50]After all, if Trump truly possesses the influence he claims, why do these military operations continue? And if he doesn't possess that influence, why would Iran trust American asurances? And that is the dilemma. It becomes even more complicated when we consider the economic consequences. The oil prices that remain elevated, the energy markets that are nervous, the investors who remain uncertain, the shipping costs that are distorted, business has become cautious uh and is is limping. Ordinary people often hear discussions about the rate of hummus and assume these are distant global concerns, but they're not. When energy prices rise, transport costs rise. When transport costs rise, inflation rises. When inflation rises, household budgets suffer. Every missile launched in the Gulf eventually finds its way into somebody's fuel bill, eating bill, and shopping basket. Every missile launched in the Gulf ends up in somebody's pocket. That is the practical reality. And the consequences are not confined to military planners or diplomats. They reach every household.

[00:08:54]And that is why I find Trump's repeated insistence that everything is under control increasingly unconvincing.

[00:09:00]Control is demonstrated through outcomes, not slogans or social media posts or optimistic interviews. The outcome today is simple. The ceasefire is fragile, if it exists at all. The negotiations are confused. The region is unstable. The military exchanges continue. The economic consequences continue and neither side appears sufficiently close to any durable settlement and certainly no closer than they were several weeks ago. The tragedy is that genuine diplomacy remains possible. There are obvious areas for negotiation. Maritime security, nuclear inspections, sanctions relief, regional security guarantees, prisoner exchanges and confidence building measures. All of these things are achievable, but they require clarity and consistency. They require leaders who are prepared to focus on substance rather than headlines. And at present, we seem to see the opposite. We have a situation where dem where diplomatic optimism and military escalation are occurring simultaneously. That contradiction cannot continue indefinitely. Sooner or later, reality will force a choice.

[00:10:08]Either negotiations succeed and the violence diminishes or the violence expands and negotiations collapse. The halfway house that we've got into at the moment is unstable. History suggests that arrangements rarely arrangements like this rarely last for long. And my concern is not merely that this conflict continues. My concern is that too many people are pretending it is ending and that may be the most dangerous illusion of all because if if leaders convince themselves that peace is already emerging, they become less willing to confront the hard compromises that are required to achieve it. And at the moment, missiles continue to fly across the Gulf. Military bases remain on alert. Airports have become vulnerable.

[00:10:50]Shipping remains disrupted. And both sides continue preparing for the possibility of wider conflict. That is not the behavior of nations standing at the threshold of peace. It is the behavior of nations on the edge of something far more dangerous.