A pragmatic reality check on the limits of long-range forecasting that prioritizes scientific caution over seasonal guesswork. It wisely grounds gardening decisions in historical data rather than the inherent uncertainty of extended weather models.
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Deep Dive
When Can I Plant My Garden?Added:
"When can I plant my garden?" is a question we've been asked repeatedly across the state of Michigan by numerous people.
The answer, unknown. But, in today's video, we're going to take a look at today and tomorrow's forecast, take a look into [music] the mid to long-range as well to hope to answer the question of when will it finally permanently warm [music] up here in the Great Lakes State.
Let's hear from Chandler with today's sponsor before we dive into the forecast. [music] Today's daily video sponsor is Mike Hayes Roofing and Siding. Mike Hayes Roofing and Siding joined the Michigan Storm Chasers partnership [music] team in 2025. They've been serving the St. Clair and Sanilac and surrounding areas for the last [music] 50 years. They offer a wide variety of services ranging from shingle roofs, metal roofs, flat [music] roofs, gutters, and siding services. They are also a Owens Corning Preferred Contractor for [music] Eastern Michigan. In addition to all their different roofing options available, they do offer financing for you and your families to take advantage of as well.
Their contact information will be in the video description down below, and you can visit their website at mikehayesroofingmi.com, [music] or you can call their office at 810-984-4564.
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Back to you, Ryan.
Thank you, Chandler, for that. Let's start as we always do with our temperatures today. It is Wednesday, May 6th in the state, and once again, a little bit cooler out there today for a lot of us. Up in the UP, we're seeing upper 30s and low 40s for our high temps.
Up by northern lower by Gaylord, Alpena, Traverse City, we're looking at upper 40s and low 50s once again. Further south, get close to Lake Michigan over toward Au Gres, the Tri-Cities area, back through the thumb, we're in the low mid-50s, and then further south, the warmest spot of the day will be southeast Michigan in Monroe, Lenawee, Wayne, and St. Clair, as well as Macomb County where temps could make a run toward the upper 50s, maybe touching 60°.
Your forecast tonight will be quite cool in nature. So, yes, frost risks will persist tonight.
No surprise.
Moving into Thursday, we're seeing temps roughly the same as today. So, a repeat day. Up in the UP, upper 30s, low 40s.
Down in the northern part of lower Michigan by Gaylord, Alpena, Traverse City, upper 40s, mid-40s, and then further south, low 50s, and maybe the Lenawee-Monroe County area sneaking into the mid-50s uh if you're lucky for your Thursday.
Taking a look at our rainfall and our radar of snow, graupel, uh we have chances of it all this week and all these days. Today should be primarily dry though. We do have some graupel and some passing rain or perhaps snow showers up in northern lower Michigan later on tonight, overnight tonight.
But, primarily today will be dry. So, a cool day on tap here. Wouldn't be shocked to see a passing shower out there, but overall, overnight into Thursday morning, that uh coverage will pick up. And for your Thursday, a little bit more scattered coverage of those We're going to call them graupel showers because we're going to have potential for graupel tomorrow, which is soft hail, all throughout these showers, and maybe even in a bit of thunderstorm, but I think that risk is quite low in nature.
Should just be primarily rain and rain showers. So, overall, a sporadic nature and coverage of showers and storms.
Your wind today and tomorrow be also subdued in nature. We're looking at gusts today below 20 mph, tomorrow as well, much of the same. We could top 20 or 30 further south across southern Michigan. Also with this in mind, we have to keep an eye on the humidity community values because of the wildfire conditions we've had up in the northern part of lower Michigan. So, we look at those relative humidities and combine that with the wind here. Thursday, we're not seeing too much in the way of low humidity. We're looking at the 30s, which is okay. We get into the 20s and especially teens, that's when we start going, "Holy cow." Combine that with wind, we're talking about wildfire conditions. So, luckily, next 2 days here appear to be uh looking like they're a little little bit moister in nature. So, that shouldn't be a too big of a concern.
the question I started the video with and the question we've been asked by many people, "When can I plant my garden?"
And there's also a lot of talk going on on social media right now from uh meteorologists in the state as well as around the region talking about, "Oh, we have a major warm-up on the horizon."
And I'm going to go ahead and say my piece about this here in the video. I don't see a major warm-up on the horizon just yet. Is it coming? Yes.
Historically speaking, we know we're in May. We're going to June, July, August, the hottest months of the year. So, this pattern will eventually break. The The question and the answer I'm hoping to really pinpoint is just exactly when that's going to happen.
So, on your screen currently is your temperature averages. The orange-red colors and yellows, those are warmer than average temperatures. Think 70s, think 80s.
On the blue, green, and the aqua colors, I'm not sure if I guess purple maybe.
I'm talking about this color out here on the uh upper plains there, those colors are cooler than average.
Think 40s, 50s, and low 60s.
The deeper you go on one side or the other, the hotter the color, the cooler the color color, that is significantly below average or significantly above average.
So, as I move this into the mid to late month time frame, watch what happens over Michigan and the region here. I'm going to hit play on this. So, we're just going to let this roll through.
This is current Wednesday up there top right now. We're into Thursday.
The cooler than average temperatures remain over the eastern half of the US.
There's one or two days mixed in with this pattern that does support a little bit warmer days, but the general pattern here is significant cold continues.
We're now into May 10th here.
We're into the 11th.
Going to move this out to the 15th.
We're still in this cooler pattern here.
Even into the May 20th time frame, the cooler than average temperatures remain.
The good news though, we get later into the 15th to 20th, it kind of narrows out to a less or a less above or Sorry, less below average.
So, instead of seeing 40s and 50s, we may might be in the 60s perhaps. So, it does warm up the later we get into the month here, but if we're talking about the 70s, 80s, and 90s, there is no major warm-up on the horizon. I'm seeing 50s and 60s and maybe a couple days in the 70s mixed in there, but overall, the cooler pattern continues here.
We're going to go to Mount Pleasant today for our temperature forecast here.
15 days. Do you see a 70° stat up there?
I see one day close, and that is all the way out at May 15th.
When we get these warmer patterns, like for example, this weekend, Saturday, 63 for a high here in Mount Pleasant, we're probably going to have systems passing through with rain and storm chances because those systems drop moisture and warm air from the south.
After those systems go through, the cold front swings through, we're back right down where we are in the 50s. This pattern's going to continue into that mid to late month time frame.
I do not see a warm-up coming. And with this pattern, keep an eye on those blue temperatures, your low temps, we have potential here in the mid to low 30s, even into the late month time frame in the mid-month time frame here, we're looking at mid-30s, low 30s that will support frost risks. So, if you are still waiting for the very last frost, we're still waiting. There's no end in sight to this pattern. Models do indicate that we could be looking at a warm-up toward that late month time frame. I just don't have enough confidence to say exactly when. We talked about on yesterday's video, we saw the 80s on the models. Overall though, that was two models runs in a row. Today's model runs, it's gone. That's how long-term works.
Right now, there's no concrete answer.
So, take with a grain of salt. If you see meteorologists or stories out there, "Oh, major warm-up coming to Michigan."
I There's nothing concrete yet. Models are way over the place. All right?
Hopefully, that answers you guys' questions. I know it's frustrating, but we'll get through it here.
Hopefully, warmer weather's on the horizon soon. But, in the meantime, I think we can we can enjoy and appreciate the 50s and 60s here. It's been a It's been a long time we've had a It's been a long time since we've had a decent spring pattern that's been prolonged. So, we'll take In the meantime, you guys enjoy your day. I'll be back on here probably on Thursday for another update video. So, in the meantime, enjoy your day, stay safe, and enjoy the cooler weather while it lasts.
>> [music]
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