There Were Two ORESHNIKS!

Added: 2026-05-31

[00:00:13]And so it happened. The Russians used the archnic again. And for those who don't know the archnic, well, it is the wrath of God or or at least looks like it. It is a unique weapon with no equivalence in the rest of the world that I have spent an inordinate amount of time studying. This is the third time it has been used. So you would expect that by now we should have a good knowledge of the weapon. In fact, this subject is becoming more and more mysterious every time. So welcome. I am Gas and this is Millennium 7.

[00:00:57]So the story starts on the 21st of November 2024 when the Arashnik was used for the first time against a missile factory in the Nepro.

[00:01:16]Then on the 8th of January 2026, the arnik was used to attack an air base near Viv.

[00:01:29]This time the footage was less impressive, but it still conveyed all the existential fear that this weapon carries with it. From what we saw in the first two attacks, we could estimate a range above 2,000 kilometers, probably around 2,500 kilome. But the unique feature of this intermediate ballistic missile is that it carries 36 submunitions that impact the ground at the speed of Mach 10. And they don't have any explosive inside. The damage is done purely with the kinetic energy.

[00:02:09]From the calculation that Totis and I could do for the previous videos, and I invite you to watch the Arajnik playlist, the most likely option is that every submunition carries slightly less energy of a Mark 82 bomb, even if the energy is distributed on the target very differently. It is an impact, not an explosion. And I have to say, making the calculations was quite a laborious job, but one of the features of the sponsor of this video could have helped us making a nice simulator if we had it at the time. So, you know how cautious I am with all this hype about artificial intelligence. So, I think you can trust me if I tell you that I found a very clever idea. So the problem with AI is that if you want to use it for something useful, for something that is not zop, you need to subscribe to the paying tiers of many different models and applications which is very expensive.

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[00:05:16]So, this is the story so far. But before moving on to the most recent attacks, here is the first mystery about the aragnic. Ukrainians have been overly cautious not showing us the damage caused by the arnik. This would be normal. You are not predicting intelligence to the enemy. But in this case, the enemy has enough space-based assets to do the damage assessment themselves.

[00:05:45]So, this policy should be likely aimed at us, the general public. We had no pictures of the damage in Viv, and the only pictures we had from Nepro were some damaged residential or office buildings near the target area. But the strangest part of this mystery was the fact that commercial satellite pictures taken shortly after the attack didn't show hardly any additional damage and no damage is not credible as complete destruction. This submunition must have done something, but it would be a nice PR stunt if the Austin community surfaced the no damage at all option to the world. I don't know exactly what is going on here, but something is going on. And I have reason to believe that in the Western military circles, this weapon is indeed the source of some concern. It is a saturation area weapon that can be intercepted but by the most performing antibbolistic missiles and even in this case with great difficulty due to the multiplication of targets. A few aragnics can conceivably severely damage a seapport or a railway node or an industrial complex or like it is happening in Ukraine severely degrade air bases. The French president Emanuel Macron after the Leviv attack said that Europe must build an equivalent weapon to reestablish the deterrence. That was a signal, but take it as you like.

[00:07:49]Coming to the most recent attacks, the context is quite bleak. Ukraine in the night between the 21st and the 22nd of May 2026 hit a student dormatory in the town of Stabilsk in the Lugans oblast killing 18 people and wounding about 40 more. This was Russian controlled territory. Since I don't believe that both sides, both Russians and Ukrainians hit civilians for the sake of it. This was most likely a targeting error. The Russians reacted with one of the most violent missile attacks of the war.

[00:08:31]About 600 drones and 90 missiles of different types were launched in the night between the 23rd and the 24th of May. Just for comparison, the initial missile attack in 2022 at the very beginning of the war included a little more than 100 missiles. This time though, the target was the Kev area and the target was the central command and control infrastructure of Ukrainian armed forces. And as usual, Ukrainians shot down about 110% of the incoming missiles and drones.

[00:09:12]So it was in this context that the aragnic was used again. Ukrainian says that one missile attack targets in the area of the town of Bilatka. I hope this is the pronunciation about 40 kilometers southwest of Kev.

[00:09:31]This video refers to this specific attack and we can see the typical six groups of six submunitions very clearly.

[00:09:40]The attack happened during a clear night for the first time. So we have a few videos of the re-entry taken with mobile phones that leaked through the severe Ukrainian censorship. The first observation is that the groups are very compact. This is an area saturation weapon, but the dispersion is indeed quite low. This case it seems even lower than in the previous attacks. The submunitions appear to be arranged in lines of about 100 mters rather than a roughly circular cloud. It would be very interesting to understand how this arrangement is produced by the ejection mechanism.

[00:10:20]Maybe one day we will have a picture or or a schematic but for now we don't know. The other interesting element is that here it is possible to see the missile bus trailing behind the submunitions burning brightly during the re-entry and we see just one.

[00:10:42]It was believed that the arachnik carried six vehicles each one carrying six submunitions and this was the origin of the typical pattern of 6* 6. In this video, we see a good part of the atmospheric re-entry, but we see just one bust, not six or eventually seven.

[00:11:03]This seems to disprove the current interpretation. It would seem that all 36 submunitions are deployed from the same bus. And considering how close bus and submunitions appear to be in this video, the release seems to happen at a relatively low altitude.

[00:11:22]This might make the missile vulnerable to some ABM systems because it could be in theory hit before the release, but all of this is speculation and we would need to have some more specific data about the missile trajectory.

[00:11:41]Two curiosities. Some seem to think that the warheads in this video are slow, but I think that it is because the camera is further away than in previous videos.

[00:11:53]There are some other angles where the speed seems higher. In the same video, in the background far away, we see a solitary interceptor self-detonating.

[00:12:04]It seems too far to be an interception attempt, and it was likely directed against a different target. So now what did the Russians attack in Bilatera?

[00:12:16]Well, there is an air base and they might have had intelligence that some high value targets were there. Could be F-16s, it could be foreign personnel, could be a command center. We won't know the truth like it happened with the other attacks. The only pictures published by Ukrainians as usual show only some damage to some civilian garages.

[00:12:40]The garages appear in the lower left corner in this aerial photo. This is probably damage caused by the bus tumbling and burning and ending up at a certain distance from the target. But since this is the internet, we have something very strange to cover. This gentleman claims to be in Bilerpa near the garages and he's showing us a crater that could have been produced by one of the aragnic submunitions that ended up out of target. I have no way. There is no way to verify whether this is the case. Anyway, there is plenty of green foliage the tritus which means that it is recent. The remnants of the submunition should be buried deep in the center of the crater, but it is strange not seeing any blackening due to the heat developed in the initial impact. It seems to have fallen on tarmac or concrete. So, it should have developed a very hot flash. So, I am not entirely convinced by this video. The crater is probably too small and it looks a bit different than what I would expect. And anyway, it would not be difficult to make a fake like this. And we know nothing of this gentleman. Furthermore, considering Ukrainian censorship, this would be a very, very bad violation. So, take this part with a generous pinch of salt. And now another argnic mystery.

[00:14:20]In the Russian press release describing the attack, the term arnik is mentioned in the plural. They talk about arnik.

[00:14:31]And in fact, there were some analysis on the internet based on a video from Donetsk. It shows a typical six groups of submunitions falling almost vertically from the sky. And since there is no way that from the naks they could see the attacker, this is confirmation that the arnik were in fact two. The geocation of the impact site though is either in Russian controlled territory or in the area of Zlavansk and craturs or even further north if possible. Some speculate it was a failed missile but I don't think so.

[00:15:14]The submunitions separated and fell vertically from the sky. A dud would have been an entire missile falling somewhere. This one seems to have worked. It is strange having used an arasnik to attack something near the front lines, but this seems to be what has happened. And unfortunately, this is all we know for now.

[00:15:39]So, where are we after this excurses?

[00:15:43]Well, things are becoming more and more intricate. This weapon never stops surprising us. But to be honest, I hope this is the last time I have to cover the archnic because that would mean that the hostilities have stopped. And if they don't stop, well, I think we will see this weapon again, which is a rather depressing conclusion. Yeah, I suppose that when you cover these things, it's quite difficult to feel bright and positive.

[00:16:18]So, thank you so much for watching this video. It has been an honor and a privilege having had your attention for this video. I have to say a big thank you to the Millennium Server Discord community. It is a great place to discuss military aerospace. There's plenty of knowledgeable people and if you're interested, the link is in the description. Another big thank you goes to all those who are supporting the channel financially on Patreon and by being a member. Your help is invaluable.

[00:16:48]And if you liked what you saw, please consider supporting the channel in the same way. If you can't, I suggest you to subscribe if you haven't. Many of the people who watch this channel are not subscribed and honestly I don't know why. but also interact with the video.

[00:17:05]Leave comments, leave a like. Because with the current algorithm, this is the best way of telling YouTube that you're interested in this kind of videos because I have the impression that recently YouTube sort of demoted all the serious stuff and promoted things like music, entertainment, sport and so on. So any help is really appreciated. This is it. Thank you very much for watching again.

[00:17:33]And see you next time.