The video offers a disciplined framework for identifying liquidity zones, providing traders with a necessary map for navigating market volatility. However, it risks oversimplifying complex financial dynamics by treating historical price patterns as definitive blueprints for future outcomes.
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Deep Dive
Let's pray together | Episode 15 |14.04.26—market review, BTC structure, SP500, Gold, key setups.Added:
The esteemed Padre EXCAVO warmly welcomes you here today. And as is our usual custom, we shall now begin this gathering with a solemn prayer.
As you may have guessed, that was a joke. Today, not only did I start with a prayer, but I also decided to record this video standing up.
So, with that in mind, let's begin our session today. If you recall from our last time together, I talked quite a bit about the specific fact that this one we basically did it from this liquidity, but we haven't yet reached those levels that exist, which is around 84,000.
It's possible that we won't reach that level at all and we'll turn around right now. But if we take a closer look, we can see how well these levels have been working out.
Even this one and we're moving up step by step higher and higher. And of course, all of this is liquidity. All of these situations will be taken out. If we get here, then most likely we'll come here like an avalanche. And honestly, I'm even expecting it to go down here to 49. Yes, right now I can clearly see that the broader market and various market participants are already collectively saying not to short anything. At this moment, I personally don't have any short positions open at all. And basically, I am just sitting here patiently waiting for my specific limit orders to be successfully filled by the exchange.
Nothing has really changed for me. We still have quite a lot of time until September.
Well, if we look at it, it's 74. But actually, the real starting point is starting from 84.
Looking at the current market setup, I would already be very tempted to try and take my first short position right there. Honestly, the price level is just far too attractive to ignore. And probably I might even wait for it to go a little higher than that just to be much more precise with the entry. Actually, let's be very precise here. Let's choose to do it exactly this way to maximize the potential. So, I am looking to take a short position from right around here, even starting from this level at 83 and setting a stop-loss up at 85.
That would be quite interesting to me. If that specific scenario happens, I will definitely try it. That would be my very first short trade for a potential pullback. That one from that liquidity. I think we'll try. We'll give it a shot in general because yes, there really are quite a few short sellers in the market here. It's minus40. Taking everything into account, I believe that this would be a solid scenario. And that is essentially the core of my plan.
If we don't reach this level, it's unlikely I'll start shorting. And actually lately, this is already the second video like this. That's how I'm recording it. The sound is already this is about Bitcoin, meaning that's the basic scenario there. So in the near future, well, you can argue whether it will go up or down. Honestly, if it reaches that level, I'll short. If it doesn't, I'll be buying here. That's basically it for this part.
Let's move on to all the most relevant instruments. Let's start with gold.
Okay, it's loading now. It took out all this liquidity here as I mentioned earlier. So, it was a good spot to go long from. Honestly, I didn't take it. Maybe we'll test something here again. and give it another try. And from here I might take a long position because and then we'll see how things actually play out. For now, for now, I'm not even touching it. But what I am touching is what I I was actually trading on the Bit Unix exchange at the time.
So the whole story behind it is that nowadays crude oil is being traded 24 hours a day, 7 days a week without any breaks at all. And I'm incredibly happy about that because my favorite instrument is oil. It's clear to me I've had my biggest profits with it. And you might ask, so why is oil being traded on weekends? Well, that is primarily because right now the actual price formation happens specifically on the hyperlquid platform and that is exactly where all of the trading action is currently taking place. So if we take a moment to go back to this particular point then basically from zone to zone to another zone to another zone. I'm actually waiting for a pullback. Here's the reaction from here or maybe even from here. Well at least from 84 and further on maybe we'll see something like this. Some kind of move like that. Now if we talk globally then as I said from this very channel I think we should break out somewhere upwards. At the bottom we buy at the top we sell. And I think you've seen the latest posts on Trading View regarding oil. Basically everything is clearly shown here where all the levels are.
And look, this is how it works here, here, and here. And basically, we're aiming for this area. It's possible we might dip down, maybe even reach here, but honestly, it's nothing to worry about. In other words, the instrument shows how this works. We also have volume checkpoints here, the largest ones like this. And this also acts as a magnet.
I think we're finished with our discussion on the oil market. So, let's move on to the next topic. Turning to the S&P 500 index, the S&P has successfully updated its all-time high record.
Basically, I have talked about this quite a bit before uh and it is no surprise to me at all, but after this euphoria right here, as I said, that's exactly when we'll start to tumble, to fall down, let's see how it all plays out. Because historically speaking, if you take a close look at the charts, every single time we have experienced this specific kind of rapid V-shaped recovery immediately after breaking the previous all-time high co and this current market correction, as you can clearly see, is happening right here, right here, and even right over here.
And that is exactly why I'm expecting something very much like that. At the very least, that is the most likely scenario. Maybe not necessarily with a brand new low, but we are already getting quite close to the peak. Honestly, I really don't know what exactly will cause this correction to happen. I truly have no idea. But at least in my view, that's how I see it unfolding. Honestly, I'm not going long or short right now. I'm just sitting back and watching what happens. And naturally this level acts as a powerful magnet. We have it would at least look nice if we start this kind of flat movement, this kind of sideways range where we have small highs and it starts to look like this like it did before. Well, looking at the charts with an exceptionally high degree of statistical probability, we can clearly understand that this movement is already representing a phase of market distribution or perhaps a strategic accumulation of some sort occurring right now. And after that, we can already slowly start heading towards a specific sort of deep and dark bottom. So it seems like well it is something very much along those lines. In any case, it is worth noting that before any major market drop or significant downward trend, we first see these specific types of technical indicators and patterns. So we are seeing that exact same thing happening here as well.
We also have a noticeable slowdown, a gradual rounding off of the trend. I would say that is exactly why we must keep watching closely, keep observing, but I feel there is more to see.
Think that this is roughly how such a correction will happen. But I could be wrong. So that's why this isn't my favorite instrument. So something like that. Let's then move on to um so uh there's a question about silver.
Well, silver doesn't look like it's about to make a new high to be honest. So, I think we'll even be taking out this liquidity and maybe even only after that. Maybe that's why. But it doesn't look very good.
It doesn't look very good. That is we it continues to make lower lows right here as well. So we can already say that a trend is forming. So a break below this level is quite possible.
Next question. What is your opinion on Bitcoin and the S&P index in the coming weeks until October, November? How pessimistic is the sentiment and are people expecting a major correction this summer? Others believe that Trump needs a high stock market level for the midterm elections.
What is your opinion? Well, I don't really know what Trump actually needs or anything like that.
We should keep in mind that Trump definitely isn't the one actually clicking the buy and sell buttons himself, but I believe he regularly discusses his plans and what he wants to do with his business partners and professional advisers. So honestly, I don't even think in those terms about what's going on there, whether it's Trump or not Trump. I just look at the market. I see the structure that could develop. And to be honest, I've always been pretty indifferent to what others think will happen.
All right, next question. My question for the next video is, what are your updated price levels and entry points for us? Dax.
Basically, it's the same as with the S&P 500. So this kind of correction at the very least to here and at most to here well and after that I'm not entirely certain what it might be related to. I could be mistaken but that is just my personal opinion. So yes indeed you perform the action exactly like the holy pope would. I bless you with all my heart and soul.
Yes, I guess I'm already a priest.
Thank you very much. Exavu really likes the weekly updates. If you like it, give it a thumbs up, leave comments, and ask questions.
Next question. Could you please tell me what the absolute minimum price of shares of Cointo is? Cointock, I want to thank you so much for all of your hard work. I truly appreciate everything you do.
Coinbase, Coinbase Global, I completely understand the situation we find ourselves in here and it is quite clear that it's not a simple one at all, I would say. So look, if you look closely here, we have it.
this kind of support you could say and this is the very liquidity that we need to take out and most likely with a high degree of probability we will go there right here even I think this recovery well it definitely exists however I honestly expect that things won't be very good for the crypto market in the near future. So I believe it will stay somewhere around here or maybe just a little bit higher than this current level. I believe that it's better like this. So if we look at the big picture, if you set aside all these indicators, look, this is what it is the standard story. To be completely honest with you, throughout my entire professional career, I have witnessed very few instances where technical formations exactly like this one actually ended up moving in an upwards direction because here we are forming this kind of liquidity zone which well with a high degree of probability we kind of take it out. It was the same situation here. First we took out this liquidity and after that this liquidity right here and here we are forming it and we've been forming it for a long time already and most likely it will even go lower than this one and that's why the price moves like this and only after that we might eventually see some kind of recovery in the market but it is not going to be a rapid process at all and it won't be quick even if for example we apply some technical Fibonacci retracement levels there by the Okay, I remember now. That's what the issue was. This way everything is much more interesting actually. So, well, that's how it is. And only after this recovery will we see a recovery.
The crypto market altcoin looks like a regular altcoin. That's why That's the situation. Look, if they're at 100, but if it's below 100, then that's it. That's a gift. You probably need to buy it, though. I'm not sure. So, thank you in Spanish. I understand better in Spanish. So, how do you assess the situation? The 500 indices, will there be a correlation between them? And do you expect any targets, a crash in the long-term perspective? I've already answered that.
That's interesting, too. Well, that's how I already answered. So, so my son, I bless you as well. Thank you for your comment. So, could you tell me more about Ton? I personally believe that this coin will climb all the way up to $100 by the end of 2023.
As for Tone, let's take a look at the details.
Look, Ton is a very interesting project. We all use Telegram daily, but do we actually pay for it? We do. We pay a little for certain features. Right now they have a massive amount of development happening there which means it has become a fully functioning and robust project with a lot going on with Ton itself as the token. I still haven't figured out what could happen there, but we're either working on it or around it. And honestly, that's actually a good point for for uh let's say accumulation, but I'm sure that we won't see an immediate breakout right now, a new all-time high even because I remember this market maker who's working with Taon. Well, all of this has been dragging on for two long years, patiently waiting just so that in some way something could finally shoot up rapidly by by 400%. So, regarding $100, well, I would be very happy for you if you manage to hold on until it reaches $100 for starters. Well, you know, maybe, maybe, maybe, but I'm not really making any big bets on that. I understand that there needs to be some kind of prolonged accumulation and after that possibly possibly an upward breakout. So, that's how it is.
So, what else do we have on the list? Let's take a moment to talk about Ethereum as well.
We also have the Ethereum network to consider which is also quite significant. I don't like these kinds of recoveries. Honestly, to be honest, this looks it doesn't look very strong.
There should be some impulsive candles. I understand that in this range that is there is still accumulation here. But over here here I'm ready to buy right now. I'm not ready. If it goes to 10,000 or something fine maybe and all that and I Maybe I believe that from this range at least we will break out upwards to 10,000. Well, okay. Maybe maybe you can also take some here. Conditionally speaking five times of well for now at this very moment I honestly don't see it. Like looking at my entry points I just don't see them clearly yet. what I see or rather what I don't see whether I personally believe in the move or not. I simply trade the market as it is and it's actually going pretty well so far.
And by the way, while we are speaking of trading, I have recently created a special tournament. I made a formal agreement with the Betunix exchange and I really thought it would be something quite interesting for my audience to participate in so that we could have real communication so that we could share things there some information so that everyone would be interested. Furthermore, if you want to grow and develop in this professional field, you need to work together as a team.
To summarize the current situation, we literally have a mere 6 days remaining until the final deadline arrives. And yet, we haven't even reached the very first target level for our trading volume. In terms of overall trading volume, Excavo is currently holding the top position, earning an impressive 208%.
The team is moving along well. That is, here are our lower boundaries.
That's about 50 to 70% but there are only 10 profitable participants and in total 20 people are participating in the volume. So out of out of such a massive and incredibly huge community only a mere 20 people actually decided to support this important initiative.
Honestly I am deeply and truly disappointed. disappointed in every single one of the people who even bothered to join the team chat in the first place because there are currently 55 people in the chat and only 20 of them actually opened positions. The other 35 just watched, observed, and did nothing. So naturally, I am now going to take some time to draw several important conclusions about all of the different things we have been discussing here today.
I understand that maybe my ideas are interesting to people. Maybe they value my opinion, but still I'm just sharing my personal trades and my overall perspective in the VIP channel.
I will definitely continue to do that and I will also keep on recording these daily videos exactly like I'm doing right now. But we'll see how things go. We'll see.
Honestly, I'm feeling quite disappointed, deeply disappointed in people because, well, maybe, just maybe, it's simply that things aren't what they seem.
Perhaps this isn't what they need. Maybe it's something I felt that I needed. Yes, I needed at least to try to see it for myself and to experience it. And now I realize that very few people are actually interested in growth. Look, I think you should just listen to what I have to say, especially if you truly have no desire to cooperate or work together as a team.
On that note, I think we'll wrap up since there are no more questions. To be honest, I don't even know what else to tell you right now. If you happen to have any additional thoughts or specific questions, please just feel free to ask me. I truly understand my own strengths and exactly what I do. And honestly, there's really not that much time left today. So, I think that's all for now. Goodbye everyone. I hope you all have a truly great mood and I look forward to seeing you again in a week. Bye-bye for now.
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