The Big C India Monsoon 2026: Onset Delayed El Niño Threatens Below-Normal Rains Jatin Singh, Skymet

追加: 2026-05-27

[00:00:16]Hello and welcome. You're tuned in to CNBC TV18 Prime. I'm Manisha Gupta and this is the Big C. Whether it's crude, cryptos, or currencies, we track the pulse of commodity world from geopolitics, prices, supply chains, and demand trends. This is your complete commodity decode. On the show, I will be joined by Jatin Singh. He's founder and chairman at Skymet. And Dheeraj Nim, he's economist and forex strategist at ANZ Research. Uh who we will focus, of course, on weather and currencies today.

[00:00:43]But let's me take you through a read-through on what really has been happening in the international markets.

[00:00:47]The stocks in the Asia Pacific trade higher with solid moves across Japanese and Korean markets today that have scaled fresh all-time highs. The Indian equities start trading flat in the lunch hour. Nifty just about hovering around those 24,000 kind of levels. The crude prices in the meanwhile have continued to trade below $100 a barrel levels as street eyes further progress between the US and Iran with respect to the uh ceasefire on the war.

[00:01:15]Let's start with Jatin Singh. He's founder and chairman at Skymet. Jatin, I thank you so much for joining in. Well, I I want to start with the onset date, first of all, and IMD had put out 26th May, plus minus 4 days, of course, but that seems to have missed. And looks like that the plus minus 4 days is something that doesn't seem to be working this time around.

[00:01:35]You know, our uh it's the the synoptic systems have not set yet. Mhm. And it has not turned out as the IMD had uh uh proposed. So, now we're getting into the first week of June.

[00:01:49]Mhm. Is there a date that you're putting out uh uh with of course error on both sides? And how are you looking at Kerala at this point in time in sense of rains.

[00:01:58]You see, it is not necessarily that it has to rain. There has to be all wind structure that has to come into setting.

[00:02:04]It has to rain on X number of days.

[00:02:07]I would say that the monsoon onset is going to be probably closer to the 3rd or 4th of June.

[00:02:15]Plus minus four.

[00:02:16]Mhm. What really is that you know, one should be watching out for when it seems when it when it is about onset? I do understand that there are 60% and 14 categories that you need to look at.

[00:02:29]Uh you see, it is there is there is a southwesterly flow that has to be set. The wind pattern has to be a certain way. A certain number of rain gauges in Kerala that have to I think be more than be more than 2.5 mm per day for for X number of days. And there is an OLR outwave radiation number which is a benchmark. Now, all three all three or four parameters have to be met.

[00:02:59]Now, there are two things here. One is that technically if the monsoon makes onset, the other thing is if the monsoon progresses on time. So, effectively if the normal onset for monsoon date in Bombay is the 10th of June. And generally when monsoon air mass is there's a good monsoon circulation and a good monsoon air mass, you will see pre-monsoon showers coming basically across the country. So, we have to see if we are into similar situation like that or we are in similar situation of 2014 where there's barely nothing. You still have May weather extending into June.

[00:03:35]Mhm. And is that a concern this time around, Jatin? Because one, it's an El Niño year as you said like 2014 and perhaps 2023 as well.

[00:03:44]Are we looking at a delayed monsoon?

[00:03:45]Because in my earlier conversation, you did tell me that onset is one part of it, but it is on how the onset is. Is it going to be a strong or a weak onset?

[00:03:54]Yeah, I haven't seen the latest data.

[00:03:56]But it at least June 1st fortnight was not looking bad.

[00:04:01]I'll have this was I saw it a couple of days ago. I I sorry, I was not able to look at the latest model outputs. But it was you know by 10th or 12th I was looking at Bombay by you know, looking at by 29th of May some good pre-monsoon showers in Delhi. So at least June was not was not looking bad.

[00:04:20]I'll have to see these things change.

[00:04:22]Oh, it has. I also want to talk to you about the heatwave part of it and the last one and a half month has been quite critical if something to say for the Indian markets there in. This is the first time that in by the way I heard of that a word not tapa which means nine days of critical heat or strong heat there in and that perhaps is until first week of June as well. How are we looking at the heatwaves and as you said it's only by the end of June that we see Delhi getting its monsoon. Are we looking at preparing ourselves for more heatwaves?

[00:04:55]You see uh The peculiar thing is people have forgotten that it was raining up to the 15th of May.

[00:05:02]Thunderstorms, okay. It's been 9 days that you've had sustained 40 degrees plus and sustained 43 or 44. Actually technically there is no heatwave because for heatwaves a heatwave is a localized thing but has to be above 4.5 degrees above normal and normal is already 40 degrees Celsius. But what you're seeing is sustained 43 44 degrees Celsius maximum days without any rainfall thunderstorms in the middle. More worryingly we are seeing night time temperatures reaching 33 34 35 degrees Celsius. So we are we are in a situation where I think this is going to turn into the normal. I would imagine by the time you're looking at 1st of June the statistics will will point to normal because you had a cool May, you had a cool April and you had a you know now you have averages catching up to that's a very very peculiar weather but it is very dangerous because you know you have you know for human health for the human health index for the you know the all our workers who work in the heat for all the security guards all the factory workers all farming any external exposure for women for young children for old people also for animals I think you know if in North India especially in this year you have to get 48 degrees 47 degrees in Banda and Banda and all these places these are unsustainable you also have you know air conditioning automobiles not working they were not built for I think what what we are looking at is the peak does not matter it is how long the peak sustains that then starts bringing long-term inefficiency and that is a worrying trend if this is a climate change or a long-term trend we haven't had heat like this in the past couple of years so you know it's it's I would imagine the day we start getting relief by the 29th of May North India Mhm.

[00:07:00]I get your point Jatin when you say that whether it's about human productivity or crop yields or various machineries not made for this kind of a temperature not made for a sustainable higher temperatures as you said but is that becoming a norm really because you know last time Jatin we spoke you we also talked about on how the monsoons are slightly shifting delayed they start late in June there's a big dry period and then we see monsoons extending itself beyond September as well what is the new normal that India can look at?

[00:07:29]I I think see the people tend to remember exceptions but the June 1 and 30th September are based on you know 100 year averages so peculiarly even if the monsoon makes an onset on or 28th of May, the rainfall you count is from June 1st. And even if it keeps on raining after September 30th into October, we stop counting on on 30th September. That's a statistical average.

[00:07:53]And if you will see, that's a good average because generally that is how, you know, you'll see the the the the the hyperbole of rainfall coming from 1st of June, peaking into July, then coming down slightly in August, then falling in September, and then and that is how that curve works. So, that curve is more or less the same. Uh at The other question is of the quantum of rainfall. The quantum of rainfall over the past 150 years is revised by the IMD every decade. Mhm. Peculiarly, the IMD has has uh two things uh economists need to understand about IMD's number keeping, which which I have issues with. One, the normal has been revised twice uh since in the last 5 days, what was the pattern that was done uh once in a decade, and has been revised twice downwards. So, till I think 2020, uh maybe a year here and there, the total normal rainfall was 890 mm. That was significantly reduced to 868 mm. So, your normal average has gone down. So, that's why you're seeing numbers like 108, 109, because the average has gone Okay, so that's the first thing. Second, after 2016, the IMD stopped declaring droughts as a policy. This was over a 100-year-old policy, which I think is extremely dangerous because I mean, you and I have been working droughts, below normal, normal rainfalls are very reliable indices for decision-makers, both personal, uh private sector, as well as for the government. Now, the IMD does not declare any meteorological drought. What are we going to do if this El Niño is strong in 2026? If the the rainfall is below 90%, are we not going to call it a drought and leave it up to the states?

[00:09:36]That is is very worrying to me from a number keeping perspective.

[00:09:40]Now, that was the one So, that was the story about rainfall. In terms of heat, we have seen these sustained long What we are seeing is that heat waves are part and parcel of the Indian climate.

[00:09:52]We have all grown up in 40, 41, 43, you know, a day or two you would, you know, have a 45 and then it would come down.

[00:09:59]And then it was interrupted by thunder storm. Now, we are seeing long heat waves, 8, 9 days of this kind of weather. Uh you know, I hope this is not a normal, but you know, but this seems to be something that we need to be very very aware of.

[00:10:13]We are also seeing these minimum temperatures in summer going to 32° C, 35° C.

[00:10:20]Now, if you live in a household and you have no air conditioning, uh you, you know, there is absolutely no relief because you're basically between 35° C and uh uh a 46° C.

[00:10:33]I'll give you a simple example. Uh couple of days ago you had 35° C. Uh uh I think it was below normal the next day because of some showers that minimum came down from 35 to 26. Mhm. That would make an evening at least tolerable. You can go out and get some work done.

[00:10:52]So, you know, that that is that is becoming a problem. And for northwest India, this becomes the norm over the next 5 to 10 years, then that is something that is very very sad and very dangerous. It will have very strong health impacts, especially on the poor. It will have very strong power consumption impact.

[00:11:13]It will have strong impacts on anything, you know, from food preservation to water usage, so on and so forth.

[00:11:23]Well, yes, it does look concerning and you talked about 8 to 9 days of sustained heat waves. I don't know, sitting in Mumbai does feel like that the whole May went on like that, perhaps, but yet monsoon is something that we will wait for. Jatin Singh as always, thank you so much for joining in appreciate your time here at CNBC TV18.

[00:11:37]With that, we'll slip into a short break. Up next, we will be joined by ANZ Research, Dhiraj Nim, to [music] talk currencies and macros. Stay tuned for that conversation.