3 Canadian Oil Stocks To Own Before US Money Pours In

Added: 2026-05-24

[00:00:00]Something big is happening in the Canadian oil sector and most investors haven't noticed. Just this week, we saw Konico Phillips CEO claim the investment climate in Canada is the best they've seen in years. We've seen institutional funds pouring billions of dollars into Canadian oil stocks. We saw international majors buying out Canadian oil companies to get access to their long reserve life assets. They all see the same thing here. Canada has become a safe haven for energy investors. But most retail investors are completely missing this story. And so today, I'm going to break down three specific companies that offer a great safe haven opportunity for different styles of investors. Now, we got to start this video by talking about why exactly Canada is a good opportunity to invest in right now. If you've looked at the headlines, you would have seen nothing but negativity for the last decade. But things have started to change significantly and the industry is starting to notice. One of the biggest problems we've had in Canada for a long time is regulation. And while things are still challenging right now, the industry is starting to come around to the way things have gone over the last year and a half. Now, words are one thing, but something that's shown significant confidence in the long-term opportunity in Canada is the major deal we saw with Arc Resources earlier this year and the major news we got immediately following that that it was just the first of many deals to come over the next couple of years. Arc Resources was a Canadian natural gas focused company that most investors had written off and yet they got bought out at $22 billion, a size we hadn't seen here in a long time. On top of that, the fact that there are other firms looking to buy out other companies shows just how valuable the assets in the ground have got and the fact that the Canadian stock market, the price for these companies has not reflected the opportunity that they represent. Now, I think one of the most interesting companies to talk about when we cover the the shift here in Canada is Canadian Natural Resources because CNQ has been a fan favorite for generalist investors, for most energy investors for a long time. It has been the largest Canadian oil company for a while, but right now it's kind of out of favor. The thing that CNQ does better than anyone else is taking advantage of the bad times.

[00:02:14]They've built an empire off of acquiring assets at distressed pricing and now they sit on the largest the largest production in the country and the largest wealth of assets in the country.

[00:02:26]If you compare them to their international peers, I got this off their slide deck from their April um report, but they are currently the second largest reserves among global energy peers, largest here in Canada.

[00:02:38]They're the only Canadian company with over 5 billion BOE of total approved reserves. That puts them at a 30-year proved reserve life index. That is a gigantic, gigantic opportunity. And yet, these guys don't trade at a huge premium. They actually trade at a discount to those same international peers that have far less resource. For years, we heard that the reason for this discount was that Canada wasn't a very attractive investment destination.

[00:03:05]Again, the regulation was holding them back. And as we see that start to change, we have seen the future prospects for this company and the stock price start to really pick up. But I do want to point out why investors are still loading the boat here. Because since 2024, we had this long period of consolidation that ended in in basically February of this year, right? We see them finally go even to April 2024 on the 20th year or the I think actually technically the 17th. it jumped just above even and since then they're only actually up 15%.

[00:03:40]So the whole of this entire global energy crisis that has pushed oil over $100 a barrel and could put a floor on $80 for the next 2 years according to the experts has moved the stock price 15%.

[00:03:54]international investors have started to notice this and you've seen many many US-based hedge funds that have absolutely loaded up on this stock over the last couple of months.

[00:04:03]As a retail investor, though, something that I'm even more interested in is the fact that they have continued to dominate every quarter for years. This is the earnings feature I've got thanks to my friends at fiscal.ai, AI and they show that they've beat on revenue 32 of the last 40 quarters and beat on EPS 31 of the last 40 that has been regardless of oil price which is a huge vote of confidence in the management of this company. Here's how I see CNQ as an investment right now. It is basically buying a chunk of the largest reserve life company in the country, the biggest producer in the country at a time when oil egress has improved by a million and a half barrels a day. that the potential that we're going to build is now up over a million half barrels. We've got expansions. We've got new pipelines.

[00:04:51]That's not even considering the West Coast story. That is just based on actual things that will happen in the next 5 to 7 years. That is a huge potential growth. They've also seen regulatory certainty about expansion of their own production. They now know the kind of things that are actually important. They deferred billions of dollars of investments the very start of this year. the problem they outlined in that announcement has been solved. So everything is looking up for them in the long run. The f future growth of this company is looking better and better and their core reserve, the asset that they're producing has now got a way higher floor set on it, including an incredibly high peak of over $150 a barrel for SEO, which is a large chunk of their production over the last couple months. The stock's up like 15% from where it was sitting just a couple years ago. That is the kind of long-term opportunity I'm talking about. This company could compound at 15 to 20% a year for decades based on just those numbers alone. And again, I am not the only one noticing this. Several funds are buying in. So CNQ is a great show how the changing regulatory environment has created a huge ramp. But that's not the only story that has changed in Canada that made it such an interesting spot to invest in energy. Because the most interesting story right now is the fact that international firms are buying and what they've been buying has seen a significant shift in attention from where the real market is actually looking right now. Stock markets entirely focused on oil companies. The price of oil is so high natural gas firms have basically been thrown out.

[00:06:27]They've been forgotten.

[00:06:29]But Arc Resources was a natural gas focused company. And the company we're going to talk about next was actually named in this Reuters report. Termine Oil is Canada's largest natural gas play. They're 27 billion enterprise value company that while they do trade at a high PE right this second, has basically been stagnant for the last 4 years. The thing is that while the stock price has stayed flat, while investors have gotten frustrated, the company has built out a massive expansion plan for the long term. They have been entirely focused on becoming one of the cheapest producers of Canadian natural gas and on focusing on the 5 to 10year time horizon because they see the opportunity in Canada as being huge shifts in natural gas electricity generation, huge shifts in LG production, and they see the long-term opportunity in North America focusing on the doubling down of US LG that we've seen as well as the massive AI data center boom. All of this has meant that the future production and the future floor price of natural gas is way higher than we expected just two or three years ago. That opportunity has created the chance for them to invest today to still profit. You're still getting yourself a 4% dividend. you're still owning a a a fairly stable company and yet you have exposure to this multi-year bull run in natural gas pricing when we do see a structural floor set. The problem is that if you look at it right now, that's not the thing that's actually the most interesting. The thing that's the most interesting to me right now is the way the market values this stock versus how the private market is valuing this stock. Right now, these guys are trading at somewhere in the range of, you know, 30 something to maybe $40,000 per flowing barrel. Arc Resources, a fairly comparable pier that got bought out just a couple weeks ago, was bought out at $60,000 per flowing barrel. To get this company to hit even that valuation, and that would assume that they are 1:1 comps, which they are not, maybe should have a premium, but that's an argument we'll have later. you would need the stock to be somewhere in the range of $90 to $100.

[00:08:44]So right now there are private market buyers that could be looking at the assets they're holding and saying this stock is 30 40% undervalued.

[00:08:53]At the same time as long-term investors who are buying the stock today are looking at it and saying this stock could double or triple over the next 10 years. One of those two groups is going to win. And no matter who does, investors who are buying today are going to see at least a a strong positive move upwards in that time horizon. The problem some investors might have though is that they're going to buy this and they're going to want it to move 40%.

[00:09:20]Now, if you put yourself in that position, as Rick Roll famously said, if you bet on the short term, you're much more likely to see negative surprises shortterm. If you bet on the long term, you're much more likely to see positive surprises. And this is a perfect example of that. Beyond just that story, the one extra thing I want to focus on with Tormolene is the way that they dominate so many of their peers in the 2P reserve story. A story that we've all kind of forgotten about over the last 6 months has been the twilight of US shale. Eric Nuttle's calling cry for all of 2025 was the fact that US shale was hitting a structural plateau that we were going to see energy demand grow and the marginal barrel that the US has produced to continue to supply the market just could not keep up. Now, we have seen like an expedited timeline of that where it's, you know, oh my gosh, we're at a shortage right now. But remember, the long-term structural story is still there. And even if you see producers ramp today, which you might, if you see producers start to produce more, get a little bit less disciplined, get a little more excited, all they will do is accelerate the timeline. You should actually be more bullish on Tormolene if you do see some of those perium peers who have way less reserve massively ramp in the short term because while 2026 might not have that kind of bullish upside in natural gas pricing, it just means that those already short reserves are going to continue to dwindle. And of course, these US firms aren't fools.

[00:10:41]They understand that. So what are the smart ones doing? They're looking at companies like Permaline and they're saying, "Can I get a piece of that? Can I get a part of those assets? Can I get into this?" And if they're not buying companies like Termolene, then they're going to be going after assets. They're going to go after the land, the resource in the ground. And that brings us to our third stock of the day. Our third stock we're going to talk about is Prairie Sky Royalty. Now, you could slot in another Canadian royalty company. There's a couple really high quality ones, but I wanted to focus on Prairie Sky because I think they offer a really interesting opportunity and I think they've been almost entirely overlooked. Prairie Sky is an $8 billion company. Puts them an enterprise value of 8.3 billion. their PE of almost 40. People look at that, you know, it doesn't screen super well.

[00:11:24]They get a little bit afraid. They're paying a current dividend yield of 3%.

[00:11:28]Again, it's good, but it's not the kind of crazy thing people are looking for.

[00:11:33]What I want you to focus on when you look at Prairie Sky isn't just the the fact that they are a zero operational risk cash flow machine, right? The fact that their margins are insane and that they operate on the sort of level that you you don't get in other basins, right? kind of the quality of resource here is something you don't get. What I want you to focus on is the fact that they own millions and millions of acres of land with resource that is getting more and more valuable on the private market without seeing the stock price appreciation.

[00:12:04]Remember that we saw Arc Resources trade out at $60,000 per flowing barrel, right? You saw the resource in the ground there trade at a huge premium to what the public market said the actual producer was worth. Remember that other producers are going to have to jump upwards to see that. Remember that US firms are looking to buy the actual assets are looking to extend the longevity of the reserves. And then look at the fact that these guys are sitting there with millions and millions of acres of land that they are going to see massive deals signed for over the next 6 12 months. You are going to see an acceleration not only emerges acquisitions but also as we see the structural long-term play out here. As you see the story that guys like Eric Nuttle have been telling of a massively undersupplied global energy market, you are going to see more and more deals.

[00:12:52]And that's not just theorizing because we saw the Bureau of Land Management in the United States sell a parcel for over $4 billion recently. It is a massive, massive deal, the kinds of which we have not seen. And it shows that there is an appetite starting to grow in this sector. That the price of this land is way higher than it's currently being valued at. And that the long-term for companies like this could be incredible.

[00:13:18]And what is your downside? You get to hold a highquality royalty company, collect your 3% dividend, have that dividend grow longterm, and basically just profit. You're taking none of the risk. You don't care what the oil price is. You don't have to watch the headlines as we see the oil market jump up and down. you just sit on your hands and profit. And so this is where I want to talk about our sponsor today and the company that could help you if you want to find more stocks like this. It's fiscal.ai. These guys have been our partners for months now and we have used their service for years. Fiscal is in my opinion the very best stock research tool out there and I think most investors are absolutely missing out if they don't have access to this. On top of that, if you sign up right now, use the link in the description, not only will you get your 15% off for the next year, but you can also get access to that twoe free trial, which is just incredible. You can literally sign up, use the same pro features that I've gotten every single piece of information for this video from today for free for 2 weeks. Don't give them a credit card.

[00:14:19]You're not obliged to pay for anything.

[00:14:21]You literally just get to use the service. If you decide you like it, put put code Liam in there. Give yourself a 15% discount. But seriously, the value I get from having access to this information, my ability to not only run screeners and research stocks and and break down valuations, but my ability to actually look through what has been happening, right? What is the ownership looking like? what is the industry doing right now? And to be able to cover these stories, to break down the the actual investor relations information for you guys to go through the the sort of earnings history of the companies and millions of other specific metrics has been hugely valuable to me. So, I strongly recommend you check out our friends at Fiscal. And that brings me to the end of this video. And I want to ask you guys, what are you looking at when it comes to energy investing? Are you looking at buying into the safe haven play in Canada or are you going for that kind of maximum torque to the upside?

[00:15:16]Right? I've seen some people they're buying into like international firms.

[00:15:20]They're looking for, you know, maybe they're buying into drilling, right?

[00:15:22]I've seen even Rick Rule talked about like, oh, offshore drilling could be a huge boom in the next couple years, right? There's all these interesting stories out there with the Canadian safe haven story being my personal favorite.

[00:15:32]But again, love to hear your opinions in the comments down below. And as always, if you like this video, please do like it. you like what we do here on the channel, please do subscribe and I hope I see you in the next one.