India's foreign policy is shaped by strategic autonomy, requiring it to balance relationships with major powers like the US and China while building domestic capabilities to reduce dependencies. The US-India relationship faces challenges from diplomatic friction and differing approaches, while India's economic ties with China create both opportunities and vulnerabilities. Strategic autonomy means maintaining decision-making independence while engaging in transactional diplomacy, which requires building domestic capabilities in defense, technology, and manufacturing to ensure resilience against external pressures.
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Trump, China & Pakistan: India's Foreign Policy Reality Check | Indrani Bagchi & C Raja Mohan |EP419本站添加:
A lot of commentary coming out from the west is that uh Washington has bypassed New Delhi and is working with Beijing and Pakistan for its objectives in Asia.
We do not need to have national hyperventilation over over that. It did not mean that a country like India should consider itself to be a bereff lover because Aimir is having lunch with President Trump. We make ourselves into a smaller power by believing that so yes they will use them. A section of the US state department used to see India as critical to balancing China in the Indoacific. Now Trump did not probably see it like that when he went to Beijing.
>> Trump came back a second time. I think he's coming with a sense look I don't need anybody in Europe. I can deal directly with Russia. In Asia I can deal directly with China. Therefore, I'll cut deals.
>> How do we slowly open up with China by sustaining some sort of deterrence capabilities?
>> Everything you export, it has Chinese components. So, this is where we are trapped. Now, how we manage that requires an industrial policy at home.
Like you can't do battery storage, you can't do EVs, everything. We're stuck with the Chinese. So, this requires a massive effort. So, and that doesn't mean you can't simply stop Chinese imports today.
>> The great Nikobar project, should it move forward? It was should have moved forward a long time ago. This debate is ridiculous.
>> If you see what Chinese have done with the Hainan Island, but in the last decade, nuclear submarine pen on one side of the island.
>> Rest of the island is a beautiful resort. Southernmost point is really just sits on top of the biggest shipping channels. So I think as a power projection, we should done this long ago. PM Modi himself went to Netherlands to get ASML semiconductor >> lithographic machines and that's so sensitive. Uh literally nobody else makes them. I think there's one Japanese company that makes it. If I'm building a semiconductor ecosystem from scratch, I don't have anything. What is it that ASML cannot do? It cannot uh operate in China. What are the priorities then for the government on spending welfare defense capex where does it fall? The easiest will be capex.
You can't compromise on the defense bit.
You can delay some purchases. Welfare you cannot touch.
Namaste Jind. You're watching or listening to another edition of the ANI podcast with Smith Prakash. The American Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in India for 4 days in a visit that many saw as a damage control exercise not about deals signed but about trying to erase the distrust that has quietly crept in into the India US relationship.
And this has happened against the backdrop of trade friction, Iran tensions and uncertainty over America's China policy. To discuss which way the relationship is headed, I have with me Indrani Bakshi, CEO of the Ananta Center and a senior journalist who has spent many years covering India's foreign policy and international relations and professor S. Raja Moan, one of India's leading experts on foreign policy, national security and international relations. He's taught at major universities in India and Singapore and has advised the Indian government on strategic and security matters. Joining me in this conversation is ANI's editor live services Ishan Prakash. Thank you Andrani for coming on the podcast again and professor CRM. Thank you so much for being on the podcast. Great to be here.
>> Yes. I'm so used to calling him CRM. I don't know how to call him anything other than that.
>> We refer to him as CRM. So we ended up calling him only. So okay. Um I want to talk to you first about Mar Rubio's visit. How do you guys see it and attempt to repair uh the fracture, paper over the fissures? How do you see the visit? Both of you, you go first. Um well, I think it was um clearly an attempt by the US to uh repair the the frayed ties. Um the secret the US secretary of state barely has 4 hours anywhere. Uh he was here for 4 days.
>> Uh that was um not expected at a time when the US is in the middle of a massive war. Um they are in the middle of um a very difficult relationship with China. uh they are they have uh difficulties pretty much in every part of the world including in their own country to be to have the secretary of state who is uh I mean if if gossip is to be believed is uh is now the anointed successor >> um is not only the secretary of state is the national security adviser and dur in the middle of his visit he even became the director of national intelligence because all of this put together that man does not have time but he spent 4 days so so that said something I think the the um the approach from the US side certainly was uh very very warm very outgoing uh including a message from I mean if you heard President Trump at the Bhat Mandapam uh event uh So hitting shall we say the right notes personalitywise and you know at at a and much more in a personal space and we we'll have to see how much of the stuff that uh bothered us um will be addressed in some ways uh you know the last year's difficulties were also of a verbal nature of a personal personality nature.
Uh it was you know humiliating. The words were uh were uncalled for. The the the approach was uncalled for. Um that so my sense was that was a this was an attempt to repair those >> difficulty difficult times. Um I mean you know on the the at the functional level things work are working just fine.
>> The difficulties at the top level.
>> Okay.
>> Is that uh your take too that uh uh that 4 days signals that uh you know that uh the secretary of state is trying to rejig uh the relationship. It had turned fracturous. the mutual suspicion had you know gone back to the era that we had forgotten about uh or at least we wanted to forget about and we were back to that era where you know uh uh you give a statement here I give a statement here those kind of things uh how do you see >> yeah I agree with Indrani I mean I think um you can say look reset reassurance uh you know which are very current fashion with alliteration I mean uh so so my sense is even before he came here.
>> I think if we if we step back and look at the backstory, I mean you had actually prime minister was in Washington uh February 13, 2025, a great joint declaration. It looked like it's going to be continuity of the last 25 years and then we had opsendur then we had the trade tariffs then we had extra tariffs on the Russian oil and as Indrani said the language that the white house was using are very offensive. Uh so you you had actually a series of uh >> missteps. No, I think it was all I think they mishandled. I mean I don't think there was any problem from us.
>> No missteps from their side.
>> Yeah. Missteps, you know, lack of sensitivity. No, the thing is Mr. Trump has bought a new uh I don't know what's the right word to say. I mean a new very shall we say almost vulgar type of diplomacy where where you mean it's not that he he's being disrespectful to so many people to the to the English British prime minister to you name it. I mean so the whole style was of >> you know this kind of redneck uh you know I don't care for protocol I'll talk down to everyone. So I think we had really a few bad months but if you look by the end of the year last year and early this year I think things were already settling down. M >> you remember there were a few nice phone calls between Trump and Mr. Modi. There was a trade deal was announced sometime February this year I think.
>> And then we the defense agreement India signed the uh what was it the defense 10-year defense framework then we had the PA silica uh agreement was signed by India the >> shadow of the tariffs.
>> No no tariffs went off now.
>> So that I mean that happened later but the >> Yeah.
We negotiate. No, we negotiated. So that's what I think what we got government did was to negotiate.
>> So we had to bear the tariffs for long and then the oil tariffs made it worse.
>> So we were negotiating and I think by the time I don't remember the exact date I think finally the courts overturned so the tariff worked for us.
>> Yeah. So today I think the trade has grown in spite of all the tariffs >> uh oil. In fact he's willing to sell you oil. He says don't buy Russian oil. I'll sell you more oil. uh and that some defense uh deals have have gone through.
So I think uh what Ruby is coming on top of that to to provide that reassurance or to you know to you know to calm the freed nerves in Delhi they know that uh you know the public sentiment had gone down badly because at more than the government level it was really the public sentiment where for 25 years as you said in your remarks finally we overcoming our anti-American impulses.
>> Are we no we were I said we were And then in within one year Trump >> revived all that uh you know the old muscle memory if you will and I think so I think what uh Rubio was trying to do was to get back and say look >> let's uh get back to where we were >> start doing things. So so that's so I would say it's a reset uh attempt at rebooting the relationship. Sir, just on that on the pomp and pageantry of uh Secretary Rubio's visit over here, the one headline that really stood out for me was this thing where they I think they tweeted it out. Sergio Gorio tweeted it out that India has committed to buying $500 billion worth of whatever American energy over the next whatever number of years.
>> This was this was very much part of the trade deal, >> right?
>> So it was not a new thing.
>> Okay. See, so what are the takeways except for the one agreement on critical minerals that actually happened and this announcement from the American side that India has committed to this. It's almost as if you know they gave us an invoice to after that visit. No, no, no, no, no.
I I think look every time you come things agreements are see for us also it was not about signing agreements right we wanted to you already signed the agreements as we're saying look >> you sign the trade deal or interim deal now it has to be finalized you signed the defense framework >> you signed the pack silica you bought bought some defense uh stuff so I think this was really facetime to come and say look whatever has happened has happened we now want to uh reboot the relationship so I think it was a reassurance on the $500 billion in fact there was a pish coy interview explaining when they remember there was the controversy when the trade deal was announced.
>> He's saying $500 billion over 5 years.
>> Yes.
>> Remember at the time the whole thing was every country had to give a number >> to say look how do you what do you do for America kind of thing uh as part of the negotiation on reducing tariffs. No most countries had some number. So what what Mr. said at the time was look 500 billion over 5 years and he said we'll buy things we need. you buy 100 Boeing aircraft any case we are buying so it's accounting thing in the end to show this much of commerce has taken place but I see the our opposition parties have reacted to it but that was part of the deal look you are selling them $80 billion a year >> goods alone if you put services you even a bigger trade surplus >> which is never considered when there are trade negotiations services >> it's fine >> no no that is yeah but I'm saying overall >> you they your biggest in the month >> they're your biggest trading partner >> you have a surplusm M >> now he's saying look we have to balance.
So we said as part of that we will buy this $500 billion stuff which is not difficult at all. Any case you need computers you need chips you need planes so buy those things you need and he wants to sell oil he's a big oil salesman. So any case you're going to buy oil. So over a 5 year period uh that was not a big deal but that was part of the overall package that that we had we had negotiated. So I I don't go by how many agreements were signed and that kind of stuff. There was the bilateral there was the quad. As I said, look, this was really reassurance to tell the Indian leadership, look, we're not abandoning you or we're not going to, you know, suddenly we've embraced Pakistan or so I think that was more of reassuring India.
>> What do you think prompted America to do this? I mean, they were on a path which was almost uh condescending towards India. It appeared that been the statements that were coming out from there. Why do you think this reset happened now? Do you think uh the way America handled the Iran war that could probably have prompted this maybe their relationship with China? explain this to me.
>> So, I mean, I wrote this uh this week.
What I'd say that a couple of things made the made a difference. One is um it if you're wondering around Washington in the last few months, the word has been out is why are we losing India? uh that but what I would say what would be a much more uh approximate reason would be um the China visit the China relationship and how it went down quite poorly. Um but also the I think uh President Trump realized he didn't think that was the case and he started out the one of the reasons I would say for the uh sort of ritual humiliation or the condescension of India last year as you saw said was also the fact that the pre that President Trump re came to the conclusion at the time that he did not need this whole balancing China with India uh narrative that was prevalent in Washington. He like I don't need I am the big guy. China will come to me. I what do I need this piddley India for?
>> Um the China visit with I mean he went with a full complement of the top CEO 16 CEOs of America and they are not inconsiderable ones. Um it was very clear that Xi Chinping was was working from a completely different script that had nothing to do with uh what Trump Trump thought he could charm him with the CEOs get whatever uh that he needed including market access etc. Shiinping said on my terms and nothing else. It was I would say that it was a sobering visit that and I think people have talked about it that it is not just America that can balance China alone not even America and Europe that can balance China >> and the gambit was thrown right there when he said the thusidity trap the >> you're calling it a declining power >> well exactly that the and the so I think there has been a little bit of a rethink within Washington. Now Washington also has to think of itself continues to think of itself as so much above the rest um that you don't need anybody. But so but you know this is a positive relationship. You've been trampling all over a relationship that honestly a doesn't take anything from you. Uh isn't a free freeloader is a >> pay good money for the website. pay good we pay good money hard cash for anything we get. Uh there is more talent sitting here in every 100 square kilometers than you can find anywhere in the world. All of that uh but yes you are poor you're chaotic all of that is also there but uh this is a positive relationship and you've literally trampled all over this relationship. So it's a so I think that that and to add to it was the Iran the Iran war the Iran war is definitely not going in any direction that the Americans are comfortable with it.
>> Professor you also agree or >> No see look I think if you remember things were going downhill then we had a prime minister go to China summit.
>> Yes. where he shook hands with what triple handshake he and Modi and she so you you so from then on they saw oh who is losing India why we so since then I think as we said there's been an effort to calm things down and I think I would say this is the culmination of that to to get things on order and then in between asani said look the China visit didn't go too well or the Iran war is in a bad shape so they also need friends I mean I think that when you things are looking good then you don't you think you don't need anyone but I suspect that they're going to be they're going to be needing a lot of friends.
>> Coming to the China thing, a section of the US State Department used to see India as critical to balancing China in the Indo-Pacific. Now, uh Trump did not probably see it like that when he went to uh when he went to Beijing. Um does that architecture is that security architecture changing at all in uh in America? Uh are they uh are they still anti-China to some extent? Do they still see is that why uh Quad came into importance again because Quad had been relegated? Trump hasn't mentioned Quad at all in the second term. So do you think that there's again going back on that uh architecture?
>> No, I I would say look that is the key question. Look, there was this sense I mean it's not just the state department.
I mean it was the considered policy >> from George W. Bush the outreach to India from 2001 onwards look we want to you know have more relationship with India we need to balance Asia >> then we had pivot to Asia then it was Trump actually we saw the Trump won where we saw the revival of the quad the framing of the Indoacific that's the direction we were going so I think the when Trump came back a second time I think he's coming with a sense look I don't need anybody in Europe I can deal directly with Russia in Asia I can deal directly with China therefore I'll cut deals So that's the kind of approach he's he's he came with. So whether that's a short-term phenomenon or a long-term phenomenon or we don't know but what Rubio's visit is telling us look why even if they want to improve ties with China is good for them to have relation better relationship with China's neighbors. So which is what we're seeing whether this is full-blown a full-fledged kind of balancing or not we not you know >> so do we get uh anxiety attacks that if >> I'll come to that >> if uh America gets closer to China >> because you know I don't see why we get anxiety attacks because we will never say oh we don't like it >> in fact our position used to be hey we don't do balancing >> who are you to tell us we don't want the quad to be militaristic and even when the Chinese Americans helped us in the galwan crisis >> we said no no we don't want to publicly say Americans gave us information or they gave us winter clothes or whatever it is. So I think we were acting hard to get >> all the time. I say you know oh sorry we we like you but we don't do alliance we are you know decisional autonomy all kinds of phrases we introduced to say no no no we not into this fully after all don't forget we were the ones who slow walked the quad >> so at one level what was clear from 2001 to 24 was look China was getting stronger US India Japan have a common stake in stabilizing but within that India was to koi before >> now we get upset because America is out saying look we're not sure about this >> you're not stepping up >> so so I think my sense is as a as an analyst I would say look structurally there's no escaping Chinese power >> today Chinese make a statement India should go to UNC to solve Kashmir our China problem has not gone anywhere >> so if you want to balance China you still need a decent relationship with the Americans >> if the Americans also realize that then we go back to some kind of an old framework it's >> back to an old framework >> what degree of uh this ma'am that's what I want to ask you do we trust the Americans then cuz after what happened and we saw what America did to Taiwan and they paused the arm sale after that China visit. How can we fully embrace that American stack in a way? But a so the if I can just go back to uh the your the earlier question a little you know uh Raj was completely right about u being India slow walking >> or what is it that we worry about when we talk about an anxiety attack where when if the US and what is it that we worry about we worried about and this is I say it in the past tense we worried about a frame a framing of what they called the G2 which was something that Obama flirted with, Clinton flirted with, which was in US and China, I will jointly uh we will jointly manage the world.
Even if President Trump wanted to handle something like that, China has become so powerful, >> they are G1.
>> They don't do G2 anymore.
So that is why to go back to your thusid trap is they don't think of a G2 anymore and they haven't. So that that anxiety attack is literally India not being able to analyze correctly.
>> It's nothing else.
It's it that the US I would say post the Beijing vis the visit is even more worried about China than before.
I just want to >> it was it you know Biden was started this the chips act it's not Trump that sort of started to become the isolationist also >> it was Biden who started it the IRA was a protectionist measure the science and chips act was a protectionist measure to be bring manufacturing back to the US >> he just said it in a nice word that's all it is doing the same thing and these people are and they come from a long tradition of an isolationist trend in American politics. It is not new. So the uh the the instinct of to roll up the um bridges, roll up the moat and draw up the bridges and and stay behind. Uh it is an there is a strand of American history politics that has been that way and Trump is a a holder of that upholder of that legacy. But that having said that it the question of trust is a very strange one and uh uh I think Raj you spoke at the trust session on one of our forums but the point about trust is this that a you don't trust blindly. You don't think that the day I need a 3:00 a.m. phone call he's going to pick up. No, you have already uh built in resilience as in you have already built in a second number that you are calling. That's the that's when trust functions. Trust doesn't function when the other side knows that you have no option but to call him.
>> So that that is a lesson we did not learn early enough. That is a lesson we have learned or we are learning the hard way. And hence this whole question of resilience, diversification, what have you. Cuz as I said, you call people, they will pick up the line when they feel it is in their interest. And I'll give you an example. You know, 2008, we were in Vienna for the uh for the nuclear NSG uh waiver uh >> this was the nuclear supplier >> nuclear suppliers group waiver we uh the the Chinese walked out of that meeting they were the last hold out they walked out of that meeting went back didn't come it took a conda rice and a bush to call >> Huenta Huenta picked up that call at 2:00 in the morning and it was Then so the power balance then was a different one but also Hua knew that he needed to pick up that call >> then so that but she is a different ball game >> she is very different that power balance has changed and that power bal so we also have to understand that when we say I do I embrace America >> um uh you embrace. Yes. But >> and they do the same thing just by the way they also they will also balance you with somebody else. They will they are in a place now where they need to balance up.
>> Yeah. You see on the on the trust thing you know we always talk about the other side.
>> Sometimes we have to think about you know our own policies as well.
If you are sitting in Washington, would you trust India?
>> Let me give you three examples.
>> You had promised by when the Americans were doing all the heavy lifting to get your nuclear deal done. The Russians couldn't do it. The French couldn't.
Only the Americans managed to get it done. Change the domestic laws as well as international laws. So at that time we told them, thank you very much. We'll buy 10,000 megawatts of nuclear reactors when you do this for us.
>> 20 years have gone by. you Shanti act has come 20 years after the nuclear deal.
>> Yes. So you didn't so so so you know if you if you want to do ledger thing what did you do for me what you you promised so I think that's a dangerous thing I mean I think if you look at last 25 years >> the Americans have helped us in key moments the nuclear deal ended the whole technology restrictions against India they dehyenated India Pakistan relationship >> and when 2019 it was Trump first administration when we changed the constitution on Kashmir our Pakistani friends and the Chinese friends went to the security council to raise it in the security council. So it is France and US that stood by us.
>> So they've also done things for us you know. So way the debate in the last few days oh my god you know they have somehow abandoned betrayed you but they say look if I was sitting in Washington there people say look we are best friends of India and there sitting in the bricks they say Chinese are best buddies they want to do multipolar world. So so I think we also do things.
So the important thing is look where what do we gain from the relationship?
>> Yes.
>> So if if the US is willing to do something for you can you benefit from it?
>> So I think that's where I think we faltered a bit that when we had the opportunity have we done enough to take advantage and build ourselves our capability. So in the end look we're not asking the Americans to come and stand in Galwan. We do it ourselves. But if they give you realtime intelligence that's good for you. Mhm.
>> If they give you general capabilities that's good for you. So the question is how do we leverage the external environment to strengthen yourself. So I think it is internal place where we've kind of uh fallen. Yeah.
>> You're saying that essentially this is in a way a challenge to our to the extent of our multilateralism. I mean you have two technist essentially countries that are now rising or have risen are established. We'll have to eventually make a choice or can we continue this path where we pick and choose the best of both worlds.
>> See the problem with China is this. I mean sitting on your territory. America is not. China is next door. America is far away. And uh Chinese Mr. Amani wants to build a battery storage factory.
Chinese says sorry we can't give you the technology.
>> If you want to get technicians for your you know electronics component manufacturer, Chinese say no. So you got to make a judgment right? I mean, I think if anyone says, "Look, US and China are equal." They're not.
>> You have a $80 billion trade surplus with the Americans, you have a $13 billion deficit with the Chinese. So, it is not as if you can go to the Chinese where the Americans can, >> you know, it's China is not an alternative. In fact, China is part of the problem on your trade. So, but they're a neighbor. You have to live with them. You have to manage that relationship. So, I think it's how we balance all these factors. But I think the way we this narrative has emerged as if everything has collapsed between India and the US. How Trump has squandered everything. It's not. I mean I think the attitude, the diplomatic style, the language has created problems. So what we're seeing is really now to to fray those nerves.
>> You know at uh at every stage it's not just um that whether we have to make a choice. You've already made that choice. I'll tell you why. When you build a 5G system to keep Chinese tech out, you made that choice.
When you take when you your systems run on technology that is compatible or derived from or licensed from America, not China. You've made that choice because when you make a techn tech choice at this in today's world you make an economic choice. When you make an economic choice you make a political choice and so that choice was made a long time ago. Every Indian you know Jam Romesh used to say this a long time ago but every Indian believes he or she is an American >> or a Punjabi same thing.
But but uh uh but yes so and what I'm saying is that choice has been made and as Raj said you h your challenge with China is so deep and so existential you you need a cleaner relationship with America Inani that's a choice that India is making what about Washington a lot of commentary coming out from the west is that uh Washington has bypassed New Delhi and is working with Beijing and Pakistan for its objectives in Asia.
>> So a what are its >> and Asia to West Asia to East Asia. So okay so now you can unpack that what are what are its objectives if you look at the Gulf area one is uh and the issue being the Iran the conflict there in the last one year AI Munir has done his bit to sort of if any of you had seen my fair lady there was the Hungarian who >> at backwards The Hungarian across the floor. So um uh uh >> Pelonian you're talking about not my fellow lady.
>> My fellow lady. Okay.
>> There was a the Hungarian where it says >> he oozing charm from every pore. He moved across the floor.
>> Ah okay.
>> To on the dance floor.
>> On the dance floor.
>> You can put money there. He did exactly that. And fair Trump loves that.
>> Trump says, "I don't care if you're a bad person. If you are nice to me, I I really like you." Munir was really nice to him >> and gave him two. No, if he could dictate the Nobel Prize, he would have given him >> citation. Yeah, absolutely.
>> He would have given two. So yes, what is Pakistan useful for in the Iran context?
Please remember that Pakistan used to represent has been representing Iranian interests in Washington for since 1981.
>> Yeah.
>> Uh Pakistan is uh it it wasn't part of the Gulf uh Arab countries that got hit of everybody else. It was he said they're a useful tool to be the mediator. Not like they were inventing uh the peace deal. They were just carrying messages. and so be it. We do not need to have national hyperventilation over over that. It did not mean that a country like India >> should consider itself to be uh a bereff lover because Aim Munir is having lunch with President Trump. It is we we make ourselves into a smaller power by believing that. So yes, they will use them. But let me also get back. You saw that the Pakist that the Pakistan Saudi Arabia uh defense agreement >> has had a very negative impact on the rest of the Gulf certainly with the UAE.
>> The the the fault lines have deepened.
If you think that Iran has an unqualified love for Pakistan, no.
Pakistan will be oppressing its Shia again tomorrow.
>> They share a border.
>> So, and there will be that it's a problem relationship. He used them to do something which is fine.
>> Now, look at the other parts of Asia.
Does he use Beijing to deal with Japan?
No.
>> Does he use Beijing to deal with Korea?
No. Or Russia or anybody who or India for instance? What what does he use Beijing for? He uses Beijing to say, "Please give me your critical minerals.
Please give me send me your rare earth magnets and please buy my uh uh chips and uh uh other products." So that's the relation. It's not like he's saying, you know what, I don't like these Indians. Let me be friends with the Pakistanis instead. No, everybody's looking at the two different countries.
I guess the varianess comes from ma'am because apart from all that you also hear stories about the F-16 packages given modernization >> what is an F-16 package and the Chinese are getting much more from the the Pakistanis are getting much more from the Chinese you just saw it >> you saw it in the in the in opind it was to two fronts became one for India >> but that's the assumption right the Chinese Pakistan access was always there when you when you hear a Biden security official talking about Pakistan's long-range missiles a direct threat to America. Now now an America under Trump says something else >> and that is our insecurity because we are not looking beyond the headline.
The Chinese Pakistan Iran how is it that Iran is is finding every minute American base >> because they are on the Chinese BU satellite system.
>> Yeah. They are getting you're not thinking that is a problem.
That is a bigger problem. The Americans are losing sleep over that. We should be losing sleep over it. China gets Pakistan gets onto this satellite system. Your Navic system is not up yet.
You need to worry about that. You don't need to worry about one official saying uh F-16 modernization.
>> Yeah. The spoofing happened uh during Marco Rubio's visit.
>> Yes.
>> There was spoofing which happened over Delhi. Exactly. So what is what we also >> so I think what she's saying look which is your bigger threat is it China's relationship with Pakistan or US relationship with Pakistan >> both >> right >> no Chinese relationship it's no as I said they become a single force now they producing ships in Karachi wherever they given them real time intelligence US is not not doing all that but it is doing some things it is giving them F-16 modernization package whatever it is >> so you can't take a position look nobody should do anything with Pakistan it's not going to yeah so given the situation we are in what is the best way out how do we manage it I mean I would say two things >> compared to the previous relationships between you know say Ajub Khan and US >> Zawhak and US what is a great man Perves Musharov and the US compared to that Pakistan is not in the same position.
>> In fact, remember when our relationship with us improved >> Perves Mushar was the darling of the world. He was being serenated everywhere frontline state against terrorism. But yet we improved relationship because of the convergent interests that came.
>> So I so I don't think we need to follow everything closely what Pakistan's modernization but the thing is we must address these issues confidently rather than simply reacting to uh to everything that that that happens. said what what has changed is also this we are a stronger country today.
>> Yeah.
>> See look when compared today India's economy is 10 times bigger than Pakistan 10 times. Pakistan is stuck at 4 bill 40 400 billion we at 4 trillion. Pakistan is begging around for one you know 1 billion here 1 billion there 26th IMF program they won't survive unless you know Saudis put one more billion dollars. So that's their state. So I don't think we should constantly comparing ourselves to them. Our thing should be no we can ask the question why are we spending only 2% on defense or even less.
>> If you have China Pakistan problem on your borders >> why are we not spending >> you should be spending out you know you should be having the military capability that can take care of both the problems.
So but if you say look that is a principal goal and within that what outsiders can do is is one part of it but in the end how are building how are we building domestic capabilities that is the answer similarly on China right >> while this this idea that look US and China have suddenly come together that's not true compared to 1980s US and China were buddies against Soviet Union >> the '90s onwards US capital moved into China in such a big way or the trade between them is hundreds of millions of dollars but today China is under sanctions. So what Trump is trying to do is from a total confrontation which he himself started in the first term. He's trying to temper it down. They're are a long way from becoming partners in Asia.
As Indrani said earlier there are a lot of problems between them. So here again we are bigger than we were in the 80s and the '90s. So therefore for us the challenge is how do we play the geopolitical game rather than constantly looking over our shoulders and saying look what's happening between >> how are we playing the geopolitical game? Is it this strategic autonomy which uh whose doctrine is it firstly?
Is it can Modi J shanker claim it to be theirs or is it an old term with with a new terminology that's all uh which is being used? And was there appreciation for this uh strategic autonomy? Was there pressure that was that came in from the US state department that abandoned this uh strategic?
>> I don't tell anyone to abandon it. Look, I I don't >> but asking us to uh rethink our dependence on Russian oil um counter strategizing when it comes to you know subordinate your China policy uh to what we tell you to do. All these are attempts to poke holes into that strategic autonomy.
>> But a a we did not a >> we did not stop buying Russian oil. And if you go back to 2022, >> uh it was a US president that actually said please do buy Russian oil. The reason for Trump going after us on Russian oil had nothing to do with Russian oil. I kept say I've I've said this I think million times. It's a it's presidential peak. It is because you did not endorse him >> after synindur. It's as simple as that.
This is a this is a man who isn't thinking uh that Russia is bad for you.
He he likes Russia. He wants to make a deal with Russia. He no problems with Russia. There is we came in the way. We came in the way because of because we did not fulfill the one desire that he has and that that is uh that the other on the subordinating our China policy to theirs. I don't think that has happened because we have a tougher China policy than they do. We have a we have uh investment curbs. We have uh press note 3. We have a whole host of uh um uh uh stuff that we don't let the Chinese into that. Have you se Have you ever heard of a Chinese being allowed to buy land in India?
>> No.
>> No.
>> They do. We allow them to build ports or any other critical infrastructure >> media as well.
>> Do they are they are they allowed into your fintech uh systems or any other tech systems? No. So they're in do you do they do we use Tik Tok? No. The many many Americans will tell you that they wish they could replicate some of our Chinese policies on China. So no, I don't believe that that is the case at all. They don't they half the time they are either trying to balance, they're trying to oppose, they're trying to make a deal. They have a different relationship. we sit next to China, we have a different relationship and we have a different imperative and I don't think that that would >> in fact I think you know given the the popular concerns about strategic autonomy which is what uh our external affairs minister when he stood next to Rubio >> this is what he's saying look you have an America first policy we have an India first policy >> right >> we have we need energy security therefore we're going to buy oil wherever it is cheap wherever it is available wherever we can get so I don't think you know India has sacrificed this autonomy and I think look I think here again we're not a small country to that somebody's going to tell us hey change your doctrine it it doesn't work like that and a lot we've done it when we're much poorer if you go back to the 50s >> so I think the question is that this constant worry that we are kind of under pressure from the others we've seen lot worse I mean if you go back to the '90s I mean what the Americans were saying on Kashmir at the time they say you don't need nuclear weapons so we gone through a lot So today I think we are a much bigger country and I don't think we need to worry. The question is look we've had problems with them on the obsendur >> we had problems on our oil energy management. We we stood a ground and now you negotiating >> find a solution on the base of mutual gain. So so I think we are much more confident country today and I don't think we need to worry that our doctrine is going to be scrapped by them. We see they they most of the time scrapping their own doctrine.
>> Yes.
>> If you see every day Mr. Trump says, "Oh, Biden, such a guy, idiot. He's he's, you know, screwed up everything."
I mean, which is so so so I I don't think we we need to constantly worry about >> our capability, >> but that's been their flex that they don't stick by one doctrine. They keep changing, you know, whereas we are one of those dogmatic ones. We stand by it non-align for the next 20 years or 40 years on that.
>> So, here two things. One is uh one is um the non-alignment of course is out but when you when we speak strategic autonomy the at its most primitive definition it is the freedom to make choices or the freedom to take a decision without >> now the point is you when you are economy is as large and as diverse as Raj spoke about the point is that you if you are if you build total dependencies which the world has and we have too on China exercising strategic autonomy becomes a problem.
>> So when you the definition of strategic autonomy in today's world would have to be redefined a little bit. You need your own capabilities >> which is build capability which is exactly what Raj said is it's not we are it's not our confidence that is the problem. It is in different areas we have not built the kind of capabilities we should have and therefore that didn't give us the leverage it could have. So where where did it where did we do it and completely by accident on actually I mean look at our refineries >> we now have some of the world's best most modern most sophisticated refineries that's your leverage >> who is buying jet fuel in the in Europe where is jet fuel in Europe coming from >> from us. So if you don't buy Russian oil, why did you get a waiver twice >> to stabilize prices?
>> What prices?
>> Refined prices. Yes.
>> Yes. For diesel, for jet fuel, for heating fuel. A lot of that comes from here. The war, what has that done to you? The war has made the has put say let us say the Jamnaga refinery. If the government is telling private sector the refiners that now you you will prioritize LPG which means you are not few uh you're not refining creating jet fuel you're creating LPG that also means that you're not your other other industries will suffer because you are producing LP but the fact remains that you have created that uh I mean it >> chokeolds in a way >> that is it's it's a capability You've built that capability that became a leverage.
>> See like the refining story is a good story but there's also the bad story which is who has stopped you from building storage.
>> Storage. Exactly.
>> Now finally when PM went to you know UAE said look we want to do >> Japanese had built for 245 days >> but you know that nobody stopped you.
>> Yeah.
>> So if you don't build capabilities and then they said people are putting pressure. So this way I think focus on domestic capabilities once you you know have that capacity you can manage >> of India know when a crisis hits us then we think of >> domestic capabilities say sir this is where the China question again comes because we import so much from them how do we slowly calibrate opening up with them you you you enumerated that list of all the prohibitive stuff that China is not allowed in this country how do we slowly open up with China without also by by sustaining some sort of deterrence capabilities with GDP we spend up on our defense and all and also to assuage political concerns as well over here but not sacrificing that with with our China trade relationship.
>> See that's you know Indran will say more I mean that's become your biggest problem. What's happened is over the last 30 years as we opened up we've lost significant part of our manufacturing capability for example vaccines.
>> Yes. And India built a full stack of vaccine production in India in the 50s because of your large population you had to you know vaccinate so many people and so many kids. Now once the Chinese came into the game they started dumping the intermediaries. So today you are totally dependent on the Chinese inputs in order to produce the vaccines or to produce the pharmaceuticals. Now they have had a PLI of some kind. It see does not seem to have succeeded very far. One or two items we're doing it here. So that has to be the war effort right that if you don't produce the full scale within at home you're stuck with the Chinese imports and then that story is far worse in the manufacturing sector as a whole everything you export it has Chinese components you want you're exporting uh electronic goods importing more Chinese electronic goods so this where we are trapped now how we manage that requires an industrial policy at home your own industry investing in R&D doing more things at home like you can't do battery storage You can't do EVs. Everything was stuck with the Chinese. So, this requires a massive effort. So, and that doesn't mean you can't simply stop Chinese imports today, but you need that strategy. How do I keep building reducing? Okay, how many items can I start producing this year? That's that's the real issue and I think we've not moved very far.
>> You know the uh uh I completely agree with what Raj says very simple. I mean, he spoke about the downside of that LPG, the refinery thing. There has been a political move to move everybody to LPG since 2014 with UGA. But nobody thought that you needed LPG storage.
>> 2026 you are suffering. So there is no match between your political intent and your economic uh intent.
There's no match. Second, your private sector is all about lower cost, less because your labor laws are all crap. So, nobody wants to build labor uh intensive >> u systems. So, you uh it's cheaper, easier to import from China.
you one industry which is quite interesting actually is the textile industry. We are a unique country. We have every part of that supply chain is in India. Every part yet Bangladesh exports more than we do.
>> Pakistan exports more than we do. Not to speak of the Chinese.
>> Why? because they get the yarn from >> because nobody nobody has put has integrated the supply chains. Nobody has worked on the labor laws, the um whatever the quality staff etc. Nobody has worked on it. It's you you could be a world leader beating everybody on textiles. You're still struggling. It is nothing to do with whether China and America are getting together. ities whether you are getting together.
>> You know before the quad meet happened uh there were articles which appeared that in in America uh there's talk about looking at Philippines India's not stepping up. So uh would in would there be a thought about replacing India with Philippines to counter China uh in the Asia-Pacific region Indo-acific region whatever you want to call it. So has India been replaced in some section of of Washington DC's thinking?
>> No, it's not that. Look, the everyday Chinese are pushing in the South China Sea.
>> So if you want to do something in the South China Sea, right, there are Japanese next door, you have the Australian South. So if you say look how do I deal with the South China Sea Chinese expansionism you do that operationally you have to have Philippines because Philippines is a victim >> and also >> it's willing to be they've >> given you a base >> yeah and in any case we can't no you're not going to sail so that's good actually as long as they keep China occupied on the on the east it's good for us >> we're not talking about >> only for military purposes they're not looking at it beyond that >> no it's a it's a local military and I think they're all see already they're allies the Philippines is a treaty ally of the United States.
>> Yes. So we are not stepping up. We won't be an ally. We won't be a military partner. A strategic partner is all that we are. These terminologies matter, right?
>> They open up pathways.
>> No, I think that's why we said look, we can do more things in the Indian Ocean today when you announce maritime, >> you know, what is it domain awareness initiative. There are things that we can do in partnership, which is what we are doing. But we're not going to go into South China Sea to defend Philippines against the Chinese. So that is the local thing. They're all close to each other. They're all already treaty allies. So I don't think Philippines replacing India.
>> I don't think that is actually a characterization. There is a separate shall as you said in the sub region of the South China Sea, they need to do something. Therefore, Philippines becomes very important. But the broader Indo Indopacific, you know, India and US will continue.
>> No, but also you know in the Philippines it's a it's different like Dutert had a different policy. Marcos has a different policy. You don't know what the next guy is going to come up with. They these the America has the base has the has a base there. Uh that base works uh you know for their operations in the in that region. We are not operating in that region.
>> Uh >> but apart things to do in the Indian Ocean. Quad is anyway not a military >> but you know see look at the quad >> you don't need it to be a military alliance you for that also >> no no no they don't you it's after our time is when August will happen uh remember the the Pentagon itself is worried I mean I don't think that's operationalizing anytime soon they can't they cannot build that many submarines it's as simple as that but more than that you go back to the quad, you have the Malabar which is a military exercise platform which is exactly a quad military exercise platform and that's fine. You had the maritime domain awareness. This time it has been upgraded to the uh maritime surveillance uh one largely because all four have the same surveillance uh uh equip systems exactly the same American surveillance systems is all four all the four countries. So you have what is the great word called interoperability and therefore you can do the surveillance uh um actions today that you couldn't 3 years ago. So for India just full clarity that's the P8 and all though >> P8 and Predator >> we talking about India's thing what about China ma'am is there an appetite in China to to open up more with India over there >> do they want to we are I mean they're running a they're running a great deficit with us >> that's fine they're running a surplus >> sorry they're running a surplus we're running at a deficit with us let it go let it continue >> what is it what do they need from you nothing >> they they have already classified you as part of the American universe. They've already classified you. Whether you are fighting with Trump today or uh uh you know shaking hands with Xiinping tomorrow, they've classified you there.
>> Doesn't matter whether >> their economy is four times five times bigger than they're at 20 trillion. We are at four.
>> They don't.
>> Their defense expenditure about $300 billion. We are at 75.
>> Slowing down which is happening is slowing down.
>> We also slowing down. In fact are we losing because the dollar ex you see a decade planning they are not bringing about President Xi is not incentivized to bring about any change there's no consumption which is happening who's he going to sell to who's China going to sell to they're manufacturing >> and an aging aging society and aging so all those are factors but at this point they have a lock on 35% of global manufacturing >> so they got surplus with every country in the world except maybe one or two like here and >> so he's not looking at any reforms at >> plus he's he's got a taped with the Pakistanis.
>> Yeah.
>> Or with the Bangladeshies, whatever you want to say. He's got, you know, neighborhood. He's already king.
>> All our neighbors are part of the string of the belt of belt and road initiative.
>> So, I think for him, he's sitting at a good place compared to us. So, that's why we have to be more hardworking, most you know, smarter in terms of accelerating our economic growth.
>> Correct.
>> Managing the external relations in a manner that we grow faster because China will slow down. It's it's a matter of time. But we need to pick up pace and I think even with the PM's goal of Vikid Bat I mean you have to get to 8%.
>> Yeah.
>> So we're still at a 6.5.
>> It's not moving beyond >> and with these kind of uh shocks which are coming in like the West Asia crisis.
>> Absolutely.
>> It's it's getting harder.
>> What happens in such a situation when a crisis like this happens and this is for both of you. What what expenditure gets cut first? Welfare gets cut first does capex get cut first or does defense expenditure get cut first? you cannot actually cut any of them. Capex of course uh your your infra infra spend might come down a little um but what your uh welfare definitely not and defense you can't. So you are stretched you're you're stretched across the se across the spectrum >> in a way that you were not before because you're now a larger not just a larger economy your stakes are larger and where China is concerned they may have problems in the sense of consumption but you know the rest of the world has problems with uh with their dem with their production which means They have a still have demand which they cannot meet with their production.
Therefore, China continues to have a ready market.
>> It will only what what changes for China. What changes for China is when demand goes down in other parts of the world. That is when the equations change for China. Demand is not going down. The demand can only go down if your war continues for much longer. A recession hits the whole world and you have what they call demand destruction.
We are not there.
>> We are not there yet. So Chinese uh uh products or Chinese exports will still find ready markets in every part of the world >> and particularly in a difficult economic phase where you are not being able to ramp up your own production. See this way you see like what you said earlier look we dependent on Russia for energy we're dependent on China for manufactured imports Russia on weapons as well so when the prime minister says look we need to produce more weapons at home and you talked about US stopping it to Taiwan look I mean 75 years later we are still importing so many so much weapons it's only now that the prime is saying okay we'll let the private sector enter into defense production we should have done this 50 years ago but there you created a structure where you that you unwilling to existing capabilities to be mobilized to to produce weapons. So though we started well I mean the British left massive number of uh you know factories of ordinance factories there was a hal was already existent and Indian capitalists Hindustan aeronautics was started by an Indian >> businessman Walchandhan he also set up the Hindustan shipyard which was in in Visag. So your people were already doing it but once you went into the socialist phase you said everything government will do. So you actually undermined yourself by not letting your private sector private capital to produce weapons. It's only now under this government last few years. Okay your companies you know producing ammunition you have hopefully when the next generation fighter aircraft Indian private sector will make them >> till 5 years ago we were running short on amor ammunition. Yeah. Yeah. But now you exporting now. So this what you know. Yeah. Companies like Bat Forge I mean a whole lot of companies had the capabilities but you won't let >> no orders also. So even if you have the cap capacity why would you manufacture if there are no orders coming and if there are bottlenecks for export >> 100%.
>> You know with our socialist mindset that we cannot export uh weaponry we were stuck with that. We were only exporting trucks.
>> That's all we were doing. So I think it was really a self-inflicted >> but today but you know but I think lot of good initiatives but I think we need to move a lot faster >> to be able to say look you reduce the dependence on the rest of the world for key things like on weapons or on res what's soal supply chains you got to do at least some sensitive stuff in India so that's where the challenge is while the political level declarations are good the MA signs off on all kinds of joint statements with other countries but the rest of your system.
>> Yes, we can all have ministries, but if we don't step up, what what use are those?
>> Private sector doesn't have capacity.
>> The private sector is let just something simple like the Gulf has been destroyed >> in the war.
>> Your private sector should be raring reconstruction is going to happen.
reconstruction should be raring to go saying that we will we will build we will build cheaper we will build faster they don't have the capacity so the Chinese coming in they they will build faster you don't you're not building fast enough so there it every sector whether it's the government whether it's the private sector there is a not just a the government is made up of people like us only okay they're not some special people so they are thinking the same way that the private sector is thinking which is >> I think they think very riskating it is the most yeah >> why do we shy away from the our private sector from allocating capital that way this risk capital >> as a nation we worry if America is talking to Pakistan >> that is our national insecurity it is here too >> same different >> Raj I wanted to ask you you mentioned Russia it's doubled its trade with China >> if we I know Indrani doesn't want me to bring Pakistan into the conversation but uh if there is a uh because we are not yet out of operation Sindur uh technically we are still in operation Sindur mode if there is another conflict can we depend upon Russia why would they support us when they have doubled their trade and China is such a important trading partner for them >> no it's it's a big question I mean I think we still buy maybe they'll keep selling us S4 S400s or whatever it is but I think over longer term irrespective it we should not depend on Russian goodwill right >> small things like tanks and these kind of stuff you know where you could have produced long ago >> drones >> but you got so comfortable Russia is just beginning to get into that field >> we need >> we need I mean I think this where actually Bangalore there is enough capacity today >> but we not fully using there again it is the private sector that has you know the startups and all they've created capabilities I don't know if you know I mean till 2016 17 drones were banned in India >> banned >> except for weddings >> yes >> so I think you see I think this way The problem was that uh where you had the talent, you had the scientific capability but the but the overall policy of the government was so negative so discouraging that it's only recently some of the changes have taken place.
Today Turkey exports drones. I mean you know Iran exports drones, Russia is making >> Iran is a world leader in do we uh expect or should >> the point coming to the point yeah look I think the Russia China relationship is growing and growing and growing >> $240 billion trade >> they in fact Russians are selling arms to to the Chinese as well >> so at some point I mean that for example our relationship with Russia if you say actual trade is less than 10 billion >> you include oil maybe there's another 20 30 depending on the overall situation ation while they're building direct pipelines their neighbors they can do a lot so at some point I think the question look will Russia stand by us as they did in the past that issue will come up but our thing should be how do I move faster now that you don't depend on Russia you be you should be able to produce more weapons at home you should be able to diversify your energy sources you don't not dependent on Russia alone that is a very I think strategy >> also in 2026 no country can we saw what happened with Venezuela right >> nobody Nobody stepped up. What happened?
Russia didn't step up. China didn't come to the aid of Venezuela. So that's also a learning lesson for every country whether it's Taiwan or India.
>> Right. But also, you know, I mean Raj is absolutely correct. And if you flip the question, why would Russia, how would Russia look at India versus China? It is in a state of dependence on China.
And you know the if you just if you followed the recent Putin summiting with Xinping that happened just after Trump went >> they bashed the Americans but they the most important thing that Putin wanted did not go through because Xiinping did not want it done.
>> The Chinese have become the partner and that is >> in all sense even the >> there was Xiinping looking way bigger than >> no but what was it? It was the same pipeline that was coming from uh Russia to China, >> the power of Siberia too.
>> Now Chinese the Chinese would have been if you look at it in one way the Chinese >> would have been able to bypass all everything and get dedicated and because they would be a buyer they would be a monopoly buyer if that I don't know what that is. they would be able to exercise buyers leverage, >> set the price maybe, >> set the price.
>> But Xi Chinping said no. And one of the some of the reporting on that was very interesting that he did not want to build his dependence on Russian gas and Russian oil. So the tap the the for Russ not to give Russia the ability to turn off the tap and make him dependent. So it's not just a question of us being uh building resilience. Everybody is building resilience. So today we are we are you're looking at Russian oil but today you're you've just done a huge oil deal with the Americans with energy deal with the Americans with the Canadians with the Venezuelans.
>> A lot of that oil is not going to come through either the Hormos or the Cape of Good Hope. It may actually be traveling across the Pacific. So that's a new route for you to think about. What I'm saying is they none of this is set in stone or it's not a binary choice.
When if we think should we depend on Russia, Russia thinks can they depend on China?
>> China.
>> Yeah.
>> So Russia will keep its options open.
>> They are also old an old state. They understand state craft just like we do, just like the Chinese do. Only problem is he's locked in a conflict with the west.
>> He's locked he's locked in a conflict with the west which is again self-inflicted. He need not have gone there but >> we are all a product of the choices we make.
>> And where the the Russia question with is that because China is trying to open up a door just for President Trump over there to basically be a buyer of American energy. Is that why you think he's doing that? He just has he he is also building his own uh resilience.
Look at where China is on on renewable energy.
>> Yeah. Hi. Right. Very right on top.
>> Right.
>> Nobody else is. He has a better way better ability to ride out the West Asia crisis. Uh even though a lot of his oil comes from Iran.
>> 70% of Iranian exports goes to Russia to China. Uh but he's still out there with the Have you seen the number of nuclear uh power plants that he's building?
>> Oh my god.
>> What is uh uh all of those are the Westinghouse design which they've reused but they started about at least 20 years later than us.
>> They're already gen 4 gen 5 capabilities. They >> future for us too. They are building fusion >> or solar for that matter as well. They building fusion which we are not. Uh uh they are building a fision fusion uh hybrid mode which we are not. So uh they are building sources of energy that they can uh sort of >> go away from hydrocarbons essentially.
>> Well not always because they are they are still cold they are still >> the appetite is a lot >> there's there. one again it's a >> B control the global supply you know they'll soon be they'll be the big supplier of nuclear reactors to the world I mean >> you were talking about West Asia now in a it looks like at least a situation where there's American sort of retrenchment from the region over here do what do those Gulf countries look at do they then look at uh China dominated region America dominated or their own sort of almost like a Helsinki process kind of deal over there where they all work with each and see Iran as a local edge.
>> China is a long way China is a long way from dominating the world at this point.
Americans talk about retrenchment.
They're in the middle of a war.
>> If you read even if you read the national defense strategy, I think it came out in December or January where they say, "Look, Middle East is okay.
We're not going to >> Yeah.
>> 2 months later they, you know, they're deep into the war without an end at this after.
>> No, that's whatever happens at this point. Look, >> they control the place now. The fact that he can call these leaders on a phone call, they all have to listen to him.
>> He's got the Gaza peace peace deal done.
He's created the board of peace where all the Middle East countries joined.
He's, you know, every day goes to every time he goes to Gulf, he collecting one more trillion dollars. So in a way, right now they're dominant. I think the Chinese are nowhere near that capability of projecting military power, projecting influence. What they're good at is look, they got energy relationships, they got technology relationships, they investing, but they're a long way from the kind of power the US has exercised exercising in front of our eyes in the last year and a half by Trump.
>> See, China is not being able to exercise power in that sense >> and the other thing about what happened >> they want to they still remain a trading >> quite happy at this point. I mean distant >> manufacturing trading buy sell in the neighborhood they want to dominate in the neighborhood. They are sitting there and they're saying you want to destroy yourselves >> be my guest.
>> For 30 years they've been doing that.
>> Fair enough.
>> It's okay. I mean you know people say we don't want to get into anything. We have we have uh we feel shy to intervene in somebody else.
>> They have their first military base in the criticism of our foreign policies.
We stand for nothing. uh maybe this whole strategic silence is something that we have decided to do where we don't want to give our chamoto opinion on anything and everything which is happening in the world. It suits us fine does it or does it sound like we just wimps and we not doing anything about it?
>> No, I think the key is the key is to consolidate. I think look I mean you now suddenly your economy is in a bit of a you know you know under cloud your energy issues are dominant. You have a whole lot of things to do. I would say stick to dunk shopping formula which is you know build your capabilities rather than holding forth on everything under the world. We did that in the 50s and 60s.
>> Yeah. What did we get with that?
>> No but also we we are not we are too big now. We're too big too diverse to open our mouths about everything. Just keep quiet.
>> But is that it's it's not just us right?
If you you both have been journalists too. You both have covered these uh visits and things like that. Uh when Trump went he took this huge delegation with him CEOs and all that when he went to China >> 17 trillion dollars or something >> yeah all these guys went but there no joint communicate nothing I mean we've covered and waited till 3:00 a.m. for joint communications. Three of us have done that right in state capitals in country capitals. Now that didn't happen when Rubio came out here. Nothing about a joint communicate. Nothing happens.
No, no hard negotiation talks on trade tariff.
It's only uh optics and nice things.
>> Optics is good. Optics is what? Optics is what? All of last year was what?
>> American foreign policy optics now.
>> But what is your what is our Optics is a very big part of foreign policy.
>> Part of it is yes, but no, nothing concrete comes out of >> what concrete do you want? Do you cannot negotiate a trade deal with the secretary of state? That's not his that's not his perview.
>> You are not negotiating a defense agreement because it's already done.
You've bought everything is done.
>> We are doing things like FDA now. nine FTAs we've signed including with all the you know with the EU with UK with EFA >> yeah with the some Gulf countries and now with starting with Canada earlier we've done with Australia and New Zealand so I think these are practical steps you know that way you boost your trade you increase your exports to do practical things rather than u issuing statement baji is very easy you know I mean >> and what is the point in issuing a statement what what good does it do to anybody except for news anchors, nobody.
But much more and but to go back to your Gulf question that the Gulf has been reshaped. It's been completely broken up and it will come back together. We don't know what it what the face will be. But what is very clear is everybody in the region will be reassessing their relationships whether it's with the US, whether it's with Israel or Iran. So like he said, who's the going to be the net security provider for West Asia? If they are rethinking about America, are they going to China is not stepping up. So will the GCC get together? Will will they >> all actually they become more dependent on the Americans?
>> No, but also GCC is over.
>> Yeah, they're factional. This >> that's my exact point.
>> GCC is over. Why was GCC created? Please go back. GCC was created so that they could deal with Iran.
as a as a counter for Iran revolution.
>> It was after the revolution. It was I think 18 1980 or 81 is when the GCC was created. Will they revive?
>> No. What is the point? Because you are now having to make you're making deals with Iran. You will have to make deals with Iran. Somebody like Kuwait for instance. Kuwait all or 90% of its exports go through the straight of Hormuz.
>> They will make a deal with Iran >> and they're internally divided.
>> Yes. They're all in you know Saudis and the UAE are now I will see only the Americans doing it there is still it's still the Americans >> so you will see but do you see independent power blocks emerging like so the Saudi Pakistan or the India UEA comparable comparable they don't have the depth there still America >> what Trump wants to do is a so-called Middle East alliance basically he wants say look I don't know if you saw his tweet two days ago bring everybody together in India >> yeah nice he wants Pakistan to be part of it >> and Saudi Arabia. How does that happen in an Abraham?
>> It's it's this is the this is the president of our $30 trillion economy who sits in the White House.
>> He has no understanding of the religious fault lines that govern this part of the world.
Those fault lines will come back.
Persian versus Arab, Shia versus Sunni.
Those fault lines will come back.
>> The forever fault lines, >> the forever fault lines. Israel will be more isolated until it is not because whatever else you may or may not say about them, they still have better >> technology capability than everybody else.
>> So sooner or yes, there will be reassessment. Yes, they will build resilience. Yes, they will build other relationships.
But that they have all grown up like Indians believing they are Americans.
>> Yeah.
>> So that relationship doesn't go away in a hurry.
>> See what's happened in the Middle East is one is Israel has become a power.
>> Its capacity to project power. Turkey has become a major power. Iran is now showing its capabilities.
Gulf Arabs all the Arabs have to rethink. You know they will be they will be rethinking. But US will remain a key key big.
>> But these enlarged Abraham records, do you think that this is like a sort of like a almost like a optically like an offramp for Trump to show if if an Iran deal doesn't happen?
>> So he can tell show his his public that I managed to get these Muslim nations to recognize Israel.
>> No. Is it possible?
>> No. The goal actually >> there is a street to every country has to worry about a street >> like our country every everybody has to worry about a street. That's not possible.
Netanyahu has talked about the deal with Iran post post Islamic he says what they call he wants to call it Cyrus accords correct >> king Cyrus the great who was nice to the Jews Iranian king >> so you see look anything is possible but at this point Iranian revolution is holding >> at this point Americans are the only guys who can provide guarantees to the smaller countries >> so that's where we are but but what will come out 2 years 3 years 5 years is a long way right Chinese and Russians are still long distance away. We are next door, but we don't have the capability or the kind of to do that kind of thing.
>> We've got a deal with we've got a very good deal with the the Emiratis. And I think that's >> So does it involve some security? We >> Yes, I think it does. I think it does involve security. Not in the way that the Pakistanis and the Saudis are doing it, but I think it much more in the place of joint technology, joint production, much more in the energy security. But it's it it's an interesting one because it'll be India, Israel, India, UAE. So, uh the possibilities are endless >> and we are the bridge.
>> Well, the UAE and the Israelis have been doing very well together.
>> They've so >> these new alignments which are coming.
>> Yeah, new alignments will come.
>> New alignments will uh come right back.
I mean you will uh you will you're seeing Pakist Saudi Arabia and Turkey they hate each other but they're sitting >> these alliances will last post Trump post Netanyahu >> who knows >> it's a part of the world now it's flexibility >> that you need to show and dynamism in foreign policy not these old concepts those enemies enemies our friend all those things don't exist anymore >> right but it but but It it is also a much more clearer um shall we say understanding if not an articulation but a clearer understanding of a capability b need c interest. Okay. In Indrani you spoke about shipping routes. Uh Raj you spoke about ship building. I'm bringing the two together now. And uh let's talk about the great nicobar project. Um should it move forward? Shouldn't it move forward? Is it India's answer? It should have moved forward a long time ago.
>> This this debate is ridiculous. Of course, it should move forward.
>> Okay.
>> For strategic reasons, how will it help us?
>> Every reason >> you for strategic reason I mean we've spoken about this the >> the year we uh tested nuclear weapons. I think that was the year we started talking about the nicobar project and nicobar project it's a very important project of course it should go >> so I think you know we see if you see what Chinese have done with the hainan island >> it was abandon you know they didn't they left it doing without anything but in the last decade decade ago >> there is a submarine pen nuclear submarine pen on one side of the island >> rest of the island is a beautiful resort >> exactly >> they turned it into big mice This is what you know tourism conference and uh >> so I think the argument in you know with in Delhi today or in India >> that you can't have both military and civilian yes you can >> I think such a long strip of island that you have to build military capabilities because it gives you a forward projection >> the island gives you the southernmost point is really just sits on top of the biggest shipping channels so I think as a power projection >> uh we should done this long ago we're doing it I think we need to do fasterm So we need to do both civilian if we can if the if there's money from the private sector saying we will build a trans shshipment port they're going to do it on the base of merit right they're not going to build it for free they're going to see it if there's business uh to justify >> but the military thing the government should focus on getting the military capabilities on there which is again takes you back to military expenditure >> leverage also building yeah >> so I think we need to have both I would say let the private sector do the the port project but the rest of it the government of India needs absolutely understand But what about the civilians the trans the critics say that you know there are no it's it's it's it's okay for a port but there are no feeder services like a train and all that >> so build it >> no but build it there a train service where in the end connecting it to the mainland how that's what the critics say how do you see >> as I said technology has advanced so far so far that building a uh an efficient ferry service in the Bay of Bengal very easy building uh these massive bridges. You're building bridges up in the Himalayas. Uh you can't you can build a bridge building. That's exactly what you think before that actually building the islands. Look at China or China and Singapore for example. How much of land has been >> reclaim it?
>> It's all on your side. Okay. Other side there's Thailand and Burma. But this side it's all I mean what is stopping you from reclaiming land today?
Everywhere it is being done.
>> So so I think and plus it's not a one island. Look at the the whole long strip.
>> Strip. Exactly. uh you can develop it I mean while protecting the this the group of tribals there as well as the forest.
So, so I would say you need to really uh do both. I think we would come to it after a long time. But my the concern I think in the in the some of the naval circles is really they they might go slow on the military side.
>> So you need to have both as I said that's why I said the Hainan Island on the ship building. Look after a long time you know look we started ship building.
>> Yeah.
>> As I saying Hindustan shipyard we were one of the first shipyards.
>> Yeah. Historically also we are ship builders a maritime power we were. But you see in the modern period you started early but Chinese, Koreans, Japanese, everyone overtaken you. So I think to create incentives because in the end I think now as part of the Gulf crisis you're also saying look we need Indian flagships, we need more >> and I think there's some talk about the Andra coast something might be coming up. So so I think it long overdue. I mean I think we had biggest coastline >> but we've not fully used it.
>> So this crisis is going to propel uh the country into all these activities.
See it should you know a uh there has been talk about the blue economy but also you know I think we should give ourselves a little credit I think that at least in the past couple of years you know our ports have really stepped up >> uh we I mean from being a real lagard in the world >> no not just Vinium in all other in all ports our turnaround uh efficiencies have been I mean Vinium is actually a marvel. It's a technological marvel.
It's run by some 10 people, but they it's now become one of the biggest trans shipment ports uh in that region. But it's a it it really is a uh tech marvel.
But look at the look at the other ports and we are now building ports on the eastern seabboard which is important.
We've always focused on the western seabboard because that's your outbound thing. But this is it's very important to be building the ports to be building the hintterland and that that's where you say something like IMAC >> if you look at how the India and the UAE have already operationalized that relationship there's a very interesting technology that the Indian uh sectors developed I think it's called Maitri or Mitri Mitra or something like that but it's uh it's a uh it's to harmonize port operation operations across countries >> only I mean as part of Central Asia as part as not central Asia to Mediterranean >> Mediterranean >> the all the way to Hifa it is going it's still we are still at I mean the war has intervened but India UAE we I think we opened it in January we inaugurated that technology it's quite amazing we've developed it ourselves And uh it's it it's it harmonizes movement across this region.
And we the way we are looking at it is it's not just shipping and ports. We're looking at it as a multimodal transport multimodal corridor which is an economic corridor and a transport corridor and a tech corridor.
>> That's the vision of IMC.
>> Um and frankly after this war we should just double down on it. So you know if you look at it from a policy perspective is foreign policy now very transactional you know because of this crisis with all countries it's not ideological anymore it is self-interest and transactional for all countries >> I think foreign policy is always transactional >> has it always been like that because it was always historical perspective ideological perspective but I think with these current crisis whether it was covid or whether this crisis is it is now suddenly that you need to be more flexible that those dogmatic ideologies which governed us for so many years uh you see those walls breaking is there a shift at all or am I seeing it >> no no no I I think look foreign policy by nature is transactional you know somehow we gave it a bad name transactionalis bad you give and take you have to negotiate your interests you have to resolve that so so I would say that's a natural way of doing things but I think in the past we dressed it up in moral rhetoric and some of that has gone now I think is a much more open pursuit of interests as it's happened in the >> but there are some cold war warriors in our country who keep saying about you know suspicion look at it with suspicion look at America oh they betray us every time >> they'll there'll be still those mandates >> those voices will be there but I think the train is the station I think >> and America may betray us we also betray them >> I mean it's it's not that this is you sounding so much like Trump when he's saying oh China spies on us so we also spy on China we do I mean it so it's not yes I think transactionalism is actually important because it forces you to look at yourself to say what can I give and what can I take and when you do that you also force yourself to look inwards to see what is it that I need >> and that's that's a very important way of looking at the world and at yourself and frankly transactionalism as Raj said should not be made into a bad word It's a good word.
>> Correct. Yes. Uh I think it used to be said about Nas Sharif also you know they say that in Pakistan it's a word for commerce. No >> for commerce.
>> Yes. That he was he was only looking at India and improving relations because it was he had good for business >> and he was the one who was talking about MNF status and those kind of things that unlike the army uh it was there was no ideology governing Labash Sharif. It was just trade which is and that's why they say >> even remember Americans used to say what is good for General Motors is good for the for America. So I think it's always that you know but >> that's what he's saying poratively they say about Mr. Modi that because he's a Gujarati it's trade and he himself says he owns it in fact that >> well you know I mean you look at it if you if it's good if it's good for building fabs or uh now Bengal is the flavor of the season so if it's oil exploration in Bengal or opening up old factories or holy holy port uh etc. It's a it's important people >> Modi himself went to Netherlands to get the ASMR ASML uh semiconductor to invest in >> actually most people did not give it enough uh >> in all the noise of the Norian journalist on that such a big deal that's a gamechanging deal >> that's a if it if it can if they can >> double down on it like the Apple like they did with Apple we can change the game so hopefully >> we really can change the game it's Uh it's a sup super stupendous uh >> do you want to explain to our viewers why? I mean he's gone straight to the source of semiconductors.
>> No it's not because there there is it's the they make the machines they make the lithograph lithographic machines and that's so sensitive uh literally nobody else makes them. I think there's one Japanese company that makes it but honestly there's nobody else that makes that. So if I am building the uh if I'm building a semiconductor ecosystem from scratch, I don't have anything. What is it that ASML doesn't cannot do? It cannot uh operate in China.
>> I think this one of the good things I think this government actually remember 3 years ago we starting with the US where we agreed on a semiconductor support. You had the first plant. Yeah.
Micron coming. M >> so I think it's that has taken off I think that's one of the successful missions I would say the semiconductor mission >> and now getting the ASML to actually produce a fab you know so you I think things are moving in the right direction but it'll take a long time >> it'll take a while but you have the talent a we have the talent >> we're already into design it's a production >> the the interesting thing about the ASML product is that they have a very slim supply chain >> Mhm. Muslims short in their own country.
>> Yeah. In in in in Europe mainly mainly Europe. But it's a um the the VP of ASML once explained to us that it's a it's a she called it a slim and uh supply chain. There's not many layers to it.
The they're very careful about who they >> partner with and uh they but they are European, right? So cost is very is an issue. They can build on the cost factor here. They can build on the talent and if we can do that, you know, Tata Electronics is actually one of their best performing companies. Um they'd be you'll be you could really change the game because then you building leverage in the semiconductor system which others cannot replicate. Last question before you leave, since you mentioned Bengal, how is Bangladesh viewing uh the election which happened in uh in India uh in Bengal? Uh how are they seeing this? Why were they so silent during the Bengal election? Whereas in India in in uh West Bengal there was all talk about Bangladesh and you know uh that what happened in Bangladesh has impacted on voters here and all. Bangladesh seems to have changed. They did not say anything.
they didn't talk about and how are they reacting now?
>> So, two things. One is um uh this uh deporting um deporting people by uh by uh the uh new BJP government.
It's going to it's going to happen. Uh that's not going to make things easier in Bangladesh.
uh they are much more concerned about uh two things whether the open hostility to Bangladesh that they you see in Assam will be replicated in Bengal I don't think that will but also they are they they are much more concerned about um Shik Hassina's presence here >> which is a non-negotiable thing for us >> I Dalai Lama has been here since 1950 50.
>> Okay.
>> I think so. I mean I don't think we'll hand over >> but I think the as you know I'm not only Bengali here has spoken but but the but the question of migr you know illegal migration how Bengal and Assam are going to deal with it >> it's going to be a big issue >> because on the one hand you think of the BJP as you know what is called triple engine circar you have both Kolkata and Garti and Delhi in the same government.
>> So can they use it to reshape the region? Can they use it to solve problems or or the agenda on uh you know reporting or pushing back >> countries in our neighborhood are going to be watching this carefully isn't it?
>> Yes. But uh there is a bigger uh >> because the migration thing is a big thing in >> so Bhutan also >> but also there's a big play on the on the internal security part this this uh election is going to impact uh structure >> the structure of internal security in the in >> we also talk about expanding chicken in this region in this region and I think uh there is it's time for that to happen uh >> some pressure points will get touched in India and Bangladesh and that's okay and that's okay that's okay that's okay you you see that's not a I mean it it we will not the Bengal Bangladesh relationship is different from the Assam Bangladesh relationship and that >> also we we can't talk about >> but it's a that's a diff these are two different relationships so we what happens in Assam will not be replicated in Bengal >> okay >> Ishan your last question >> and and just indulge me on this this is a bit crystal ball gazing over here in the event that uh these talks with Iran break down completely back to war uh and a situation where Homus is now completely blocked for the foreseeable future 3 months 4 months whatever our GDP takes hits massive hits how do you if you are sitting right now in the prime minister's office how do you advise a prime minister to steady the ship or to essentially figure out how to >> I don't want to sit in the prime minister's office No, I'm just I'm just joking. No, no, the thing is look, nobody knows. Look, I think I would say if you're an optimist, you would say, look, we weathered through COVID, right? I mean, today you can think of the pain. I mean, what COVID did to the world, >> the NPI crisis, all these problems that we've had.
>> So, so you know that lasted more than a year and a half, two years, you know, everything got affected. I mean uh second is the even the Ukraine war we thought maybe 2 weeks 3 weeks 2 years now it's into the fifth year so so I think there is no control you know you can't control these variables the question is how much of a flexibility that you have if it lasts very long say then you'll have say the UA is going to build one more pipeline I believe it's already 50% done so people are going to people are eventually find a way out no water has to find its way out >> so it's not as if everything will collapse the longer Iran waits. Iran's economy itself will take turn. Iran thinks American economy and the world will get hit. So we don't know which one will crack first and and so so I would say a lot of other things are also possible. The longer it goes, how the Arabian Peninsula deals with the oil pipelines is going to change. People are going to find alternative sources. More oil will become viable. All kinds of things will happen. But if you're a pessimist, we are in deep trouble. I mean I think we are so dependent on oil that for us I think managing the crisis will be will be very very very hard. H it will be very hard but u you know Raj actually is is right the longer hormone stays closed the faster people will find ways around it >> and frankly in another 5 years uh if you continue the way they are doing right now by building pipelines Iran will struggle >> cuz they will they if they are also overreaching they are also at a danger of overreaching it's Not just America, Iran is also at the danger of overreaching and if they overplay their hand in the Gulf, in the straits, people will find ways around it. The look at the territory, there will be ways around it. It's it'll take 3 years, it'll take 2 years, but it'll be it'll happen.
>> So, this is again my earlier question.
When a crisis like this happens where you shave off a couple of GDP points from the country, what are the what are the priorities then for the government on spending again welfare, defense, capex? Where does it go fall priority wise?
>> The easiest will be capex >> to start there.
>> You can't compromise on the defense bit.
You can delay some purchases not much >> politically on welfare is the core of politics. welfare you cannot touch.
>> Yeah. And like uh >> and and in a crisis situation even more.
>> Yeah. You can't touch >> the three Fs that uh the Nirmal G spoke about.
>> Where do you touch on fertilizer? You can't take off. You have Punjab elections coming.
>> So politically you can't.
>> Yeah. Absolutely.
>> Subsidies have to remain long-term policies.
>> You look at your you look at your new suppliers. Look at the countries where you're going for your supplies.
by the Morocco for phosphates. It's now one of your biggest uh partners >> for phosphates >> for fertilizer >> for fertilizer >> and also there's a go you know our own country China produces using coal coal gasification there some new technologies we had to be tried our own capacity burning >> we had I think we just spoken with the the Norwegians we're finally looking at something on the carbon capture storage something on the coal gasification coal gasification people talked about for years >> nuclear is takes a But >> so nice to talk to people who not doom and gloom >> with the war. Thank you Rani. Thank you Raj for coming. Thank you for watching or listening to this edition of the NI podcast with Smith Prakash. Do like or subscribe on whichever channel you've seen this or heard this. Namaste Jind.
>> Click here to watch the previous episodes.
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