Summer 2026 Weather Forecast: Final Seasonal Model Round-Up

Added: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]Hello, world. A welcome to the second and final summer 2026 seasonal roundup. So, here we go. We're going to get all the long-range forecasts together for a second and final time uh this season. We've got them three by one by one. See what they're all showing for summer 2026. Of course, this is going to be ahead of tomorrow back holiday Monday's summer forecast. So, sit back, relax, and enjoy and I shall talk you through the final seasonal roundup for summer 2026 in a moment. Uh just say first video says our 6-day UK weather forecast will be taken 14th there as well. So, uh hope you're having a lovely Sunday. Thank you so much. And like, share, subscribe, all of that good stuff. Thank you shout out Ricardo. Thank you so much for your amazing British weather for our uh summer updates gift. Thank you so much, my friend. For the final time that you'll see of a summer updates gift. I have got a special special gift for the summer forecast and that will be revealed. I'll have to reveal that.

[00:00:59]Reveal Uh now, we're coming up, of course, with the summer forecast tomorrow.

[00:01:05]All right. Well, with all that said and done, I reckon we'd better crack on with the second and final summer 2026 seasonal model roundup. Big update this important update. So, let's get on. Just [snorts] start off, as always, with Can Sips coming from uh Tropical Tidbits.

[00:01:24]So, uh this is showing This is mean sea level pressure, by the way, for summer 2026 showing high pressure from the Atlantic into northern uh and western parts of Europe as well.

[00:01:38]So, high pressure in control for this summer. A warmer than average summer is being predicted, quite substantially so, in those uh deep orange shady colors.

[00:01:47]That's like 2° above average. Very hot summer going coming up most of Europe as well. And a drier than average summer, quite significantly so, being predicted so a warm possibly hot and dry summer indicated there by Kansas. We go to the N double M E sweeter bowl starting off with temperature anomalies from NASA showing above average temperatures being forecast for this summer. Especially hot but on the warmer than average side like half a degree to 1 degree above normal there and a rather dry than average summer being predicted as well so NASA also go for quite a warm and dry summer.

[00:02:30]And JMA is another Canadian model going for a very warm summer as well.

[00:02:35]Hotter than NASA in those orange deep orange colors 1 to 2 degrees above average quite a hot summer being forecast there and also on the drier side so at the moment we've clearly got a trend to hotter and drier conditions for this summer.

[00:02:51]And then we've got N car showing up as well. So this is going for a slightly warmer than average summer not excessively so. That's about half a degree above average and we also see not much signal for precipitation so that's slightly weaker but I suppose still at the still up the same trend really.

[00:03:15]I I I double I I I should say which is of course the International Research Institute on climate and Columbia Climate School probability forecast showing that probability probabilities are favoring a warmer than average summer for most of Europe this year.

[00:03:35]Probabilities favor slightly cooler average summer for Scotland but for Ireland England and Wales probabilities are favoring above average temperatures this summer and for precipitation well we see signal there maybe favoring a rather wetter summer particularly for northern regions. So, warm but quite wet summer from the probability forecast there from IRI.

[00:04:00]And then CFSv2 finally for the American North American models we've got 700 millibar heights anomaly for summer of 2026 showing a generally anticyclonic so the high pressure pattern favor a little bit to our western northwest which could bring the wind in a bit more of a northwesterly direction. So, possibly a rather a rather dry but coolish signal for this summer if wind is coming in from off the Atlantic. Therefore, temperature anomalies aren't excessively warm actually this summer. Warmest temperature anomalies for south elsewhere it's either average or no signal.

[00:04:46]And no real signal for precipitation either but I would have thought with high pressure just centered to our west we'd likely have a rather dry summer.

[00:04:52]So, perhaps a cooler drier type summer which is an unusual combination being predicted there by the CFS. Well, that's it for North American models and then moving on to Europe starting off with ECMWF. This one also means our pressure anomaly going for a high pressure across the Atlantic and into northern western Europe as well during this summer.

[00:05:16]And so therefore model is predicting above average temperature so most of continental Europe in the red shaded colors 1 to 2 degrees above normal but elsewhere we're like half a degree to 1 degree above average. And for precipitation, well, it's a weak signal but wetter average just rather generally on a drier than average side for Ireland, France, UK for like western parts of Europe.

[00:05:42]Mitchell's France is looking like that means our pressure anomaly with high pressure in the Atlantic.

[00:05:50]And that could be bringing wind from like a westerly northwesterly direction. Temperature normally again it's a bit above average, not excessively hot there. The hottest conditions look like they're across much of the continent. We're kind of on the periphery there. A rather drier summer being British well. That's standing out, isn't it? Quite a drier summer being forecast in a lot of these models differing on the place of It's It's that place of high pressure, I guess. And that determines the overall feel of summer and the temperature normally. DWD from Germany showing high pressure again centered in the Atlantic but sending a ridge into northern and western Europe.

[00:06:34]Temperature normally is coming out a bit above average around half a degree to 1 degree above normal. And once again, we see very little or no signal for precipitation, but I would imagine a drier summer would be quite likely there.

[00:06:50]Uh SMCC, well, this is a high pressure bit further northwards, more centered towards Greenland and [snorts] Iceland perhaps.

[00:06:59]Sending a ridge through to northern Europe as well. If we were to start getting low pressure developing underneath that high pressure, then it back returns to quite a wet summer pattern, especially so for more southern regions.

[00:07:13]Uh so the temperature normally for this summer from SMCC is a bit above average, again half a degree, 1 degree above normal. Warm but not excessively excessively hot summer therefore. And precipitation-wise, [snorts] rather on the drier than average side, too. The ECMWF looks like that. High pressure being favored between Iceland and Scotland.

[00:07:39]Winds coming in perhaps from more of an easterly direction with that one.

[00:07:45]And hottest model so far that we've seen for the temperature probably in the sort of in the a deep orange to red shade it goes 1 to 2 degrees above normal. Very quite hot summer being forecast. And again, we see a trend for a rather dry summer as well.

[00:08:02]So, a dry and hot summer from the ECCC.

[00:08:07]And then moving away from Europe and still staying with with the models this week, we go global and we go to Australia next. And this one again with high pressure in control for this summer centered between Iceland and Scotland.

[00:08:23]That will bring the wind in from an easterly direction. The Australian model is forecasting above average temperatures but not excessively hot.

[00:08:33]But again, half a degree 1 degree above normal. And again, we see from the Bureau of Meteorology in Georgia, a drier average summer is being forecast once more too. From Australia to Japan, we've got the JMA.

[00:08:49]And again, we see high pressure being centered in the Atlantic there.

[00:08:55]An anticyclonic summer this time more to the west of us means that therefore the temperature not necessarily quite as hot but still slightly above average with more of an Atlantic influence and not much signal for precipitation either once again.

[00:09:13]Uh then we go from Japan to China. So, this is uh how things looking from Beijing Climate Center. Yes, the Beijing Climate Center is still in business with their long-range forecast. And this one a bit different. Um blocking high pressure being forecast around Greenland and Iceland. Low pressure in from the Atlantic into western southwestern parts of Europe. That will bring wind in from a northeasterly direction, therefore probably rather cooler summer. And with low pressure coming into the south, that block could turn into quite a wet summer as well. The temperature anomaly is slightly above average, but not especially warm. And actually just right north of it is a bit uh cooler than average. But uh let's say around average temperature uh temperature slightly above.

[00:09:59]A bit of a shock of this uh from both strong centers right up the end or nearly at the end, precipitation going for a very wet summer across England and Wales there. Uh dry and average summer um just about further north and west.

[00:10:13]But that's a different scenario compared to anything that we've seen so far. And like it's very isolated. We don't have a model going for that um but you know, you won't rule it out. Like you can't rule out based on what it says. It's quite a quite a a decent model in my opinion. So So is it is that the one that's got it right? Hmm. We'll know in September. But finally, our own UK Met Office. So this is our Met's looking um Oh, low pressure is up here.

[00:10:44]Um probably just rather anticyclonic summer uh really. The temperature anomaly is coming out slightly above average once again. Not excessively hot, but a bit above normal. Um precipitation-wise, well, this one's about to be a bit more unsettled as well than UK Met often is. Uh going for a rather wetter than average summer just to our north there.

[00:11:07]Hmm.

[00:11:09]Well, there we go. That is your second and final summer 2026 season one roundup. With all of those models from World's Leading Forecast Centers, I think we have a trend there for a dry summer in most of those models and probably quite a warm summer, but not that many of them going excessively hot. Of course, we've got Beijing Climate Center throwing a complete spanner in the works.

[00:11:34]And gave her a rather cool and wet summer. We'll see. You're going to find out tomorrow what Gareth will be forecasting for summer 2026, so we'll really see.

[00:11:43]Our summer forecast is on bank holiday Monday, very unusually so. Um but uh going to be an interesting watch anyway.

[00:11:50]That will be released at 10:00 a.m.

[00:11:52]tomorrow.

[00:11:54]Thank you so much Richard Shaw for our amazing winter update. So talking about my winter update for our amazing summer update. Get about to sleep from a towel, right?

[00:12:01]Um so much Rich for that and uh we'll see you tomorrow for our uh summer forecast.

[00:12:08]For this one though, that is all for now. Thanks for watching. Enjoy the rest of your Sunday and bye for now.