The One XRP Metric That Predicts an Instant Flash Surge

[00:00:00]Hey everybody, this is the digital asset investor. Now, we've covered a lot of things where people do XRP uh valuations and models for pricing, but I found something that I don't think I've ever seen done before. There's some guys that did a research paper, and what they did is they came up with some modeling for what precedes extreme price surges in XRP. And I think it might precede uh if it does the opposite, it might precede extreme price downturns in the XRP price. But that's what we're going to talk about today.

[00:00:37]I'm going to show you this modeling research paper that was done. I think you'll find it fascinating. And I also found on a certain date when we had a crash based on this modeling, they would be correct because it did the opposite.

[00:00:52]And you're going to find it fascinating.

[00:00:54]Enjoy that intro.

[00:00:57]Ignition [music] sequence starts. 6 5 4 3 2 1 zero. Liftoff. We have a liftoff.

[00:01:10][music] [bell] Okay, we're going to have to use the full screen. This this research paper is called anomaly prediction and XRP price with topological features. Now this paper if you read through it I think you have to have a PhD to understand everything they're talking about but luckily we have AI so we can get them to decipher it so that it speaks to all the rest of us. But I do want to show you what they said the aim of this. They said the aim of this research is to study XRP crypto asset price dynamics with a particular focus on forecasting atypical price movements. Recent studies suggest that topical properties of transaction graphs are highly informative for understanding cryptocurrency price behavior. In this work, we show that specific topological properties of the XRP transaction graphs provide important information about extreme XRP price surges and can be used for more competitive prediction of anomalous price dynamics. So, what I did first is I went to um AI and I got it to summarize the whole paper. And here's what it said. Says um let me get it see if I can get this higher. I don't think I can. I'll read it to you. In short, the research paints an optimistic picture. XRP isn't XRP isn't just random price action. Its transaction network acts like an early warning system when the topology starts lighting up with the right Betty changes and modus. And I don't know what that means, but history shows a fast dramatic surge becomes more much more probable. investors are um or analysts are monitoring these onchain structural shifts could potentially ride the next big waves with better timing and confidence than those watching only charts. This is academic evidence from past data showing how surges can can be anticipated more accurately not a price guarantee. crypto remains volatable but the paper highlights a real structural reasons for the sorry paper highlights real structural reasons for optimism around XRP's capacity for rapid upside moves always do your own research dot dot so they're covering AI is always covering its butt so here's where you can look at at um the live transactions which won't necessarily help you as much if you're looking into this it's but it's livevenetxpl l.org is what you're looking at here.

[00:03:47]But it gets interesting when we start looking at the daily transactions um and they and we start looking at months.

[00:03:56]These are the XRP daily transactions over the last few months. This is uh May to February 2026. It looks like it spiked up in February. Um and I don't remember if we had surges after that, but I got some other things I'm going to show you. um the transaction volume month by month from January to uh May May of June. It looks like here in May and June, well, it looks like it the the volumes were ticking up uh in those months and then but here in May and June, we're um we're lower on transaction volumes. Here's where it gets interesting, folks, because this right here, you're looking um June.

[00:04:40]Let's see. Am I looking at Yeah. June 19th, 2025 to June 19th, 2026.

[00:04:48]I want to show you something. Do you remember when we had the massive crash on October 10th? It wasn't just XRP, but XRP went down with the market. Look what happened on October the second. Right before that, you had a literal, look at that crash in XRP transaction volume.

[00:05:08]you had a major crash in XRP transaction volume and then on the 10th was when the XRP price along with everything else in crypto crashed. But it's a very interesting thing if you can see it days before a market crash like the transactions cratering. This could be a gamecher if you're one of those people that's trading. I don't trade but a lot of you out there might that might be your thing. But it's a very fascinating look at what can happen in this research paper may be right over the target. Now, I'm not going to play this because they got music over it and I don't know if it's copyrighted, but the guys from EZA, Phil Quac says when it happens, it will happen in a flash. Now, I think this could be directly tied to the transactions going nuts maybe after the Clarity Act because those transactions when they final when when all these Wall Street firms and institutions are finally able to legally jump in this game, I think that it'll be a domino effect of or a snowball effect of transactions and everything else. And I think there will be a lot of accumulation of XRP to be used for the transactions. I think all of that will happen. So I think he's right. It'll happen in a flash. He says, he said, "But those of us who are here now will remember what it took to get there." My wife happens to be sitting right here and I know that she will reme remember what it took to to get there.

[00:06:39][laughter] It's been a long long road. Okay. Wanted to uh highlight this. You know, Caleb and Brown is one of my sponsors. Listen to this from Caleb and Brown.

[00:06:51]>> Great service in crypto is about being proactive, human support, and security first. Our team is always being constantly trained and provided updated information on how to identify common scams, how to recognize risky external exchanges, how to recognize suspicious wallets and withdrawals. and they're there to guide you step by step on how to do those wallet transfers. Education is part of the protection and crypto can be quite complex, especially when it comes to real money. The human support really makes a difference.

[00:07:27]>> I cannot tell you the value of having an actual broker that you can talk to. In fact, with these recent XRP prices, uh, um, Caleb and Brown, all I have to do is send an email and say, "Hey, you see that cash? Buy me some XRP." And that's what they do. It's as simple as that. If all the other exchanges crash, I don't have to worry about it because Caleb and Brown can route orders even if their site goes down because they have multiple liquidity providers. And that's another benefit of them. when when these markets take off, you're going to be looking for liquidity and you're also going to I mean when they take off, it'll it a lot of times everybody's crashing when the markets take off [snorts] and that's when you really can use things like this. And you can you can have a hard wallet and still open a Caleb and Brown account and just send it on to the exchange when you're ready to trade. So don't think you can't do that.

[00:08:22]Go to xrpealth589.com.

[00:08:26]That's the Patreon. I'm sorry. I'm con I'm crossing over my um I'm I've I'm so used to memorizing my intro and my outro and doing some of my promos that sometimes my mind glitches. You go to XRPWealth589.com.

[00:08:44]That's how you get to my my page on Caleb and Brown and you click sign up today here. Um, it's just a.com so that because a lot of you are driving down the road and it's easier for me to say something like that that you can remember and then when you get home you can just type in xrpealth589.com and it'll forward you right to the page.

[00:09:05]You click sign up today to open a Caleb and Brown account. Let me go back to the split screen. This right here is um Kristen Smith, Salana Policy Institute, talking about Clarity Act um talks hitting a snag. As I've told you a thousand times, there will be drama, but these people are going to pass it because these the all of these people who are anti-crypto, they're going to hold their nose because they saw Trump get elected in large part because of crypto and they saw themselves get destroyed at the polls. They're not going to let it happen again. I think President Trump has the right vision. We want the US to be the crypto capital of the world and getting the Clarity Act enacted is the final step. We're incredibly grateful that Trump has a strong adviser and Patrick Wit who has been negotiating successfully with the Senate with leaders like Senators Lemus, Moreno, Ggo and others. And I do think that there are some people out there, including Jane Diamond, who have the wrong impression uh that this bill is deregulatory. It's really quite the contrary. This bill creates regulation for markets. It creates new consumer protections, new tools for law enforcement. It fills gaps that exist today, and now is the time to get it done.

[00:10:26]>> Okay. Um, now I wanted to play you this clip. This is from Thinking Crypto. This is Christian Carlo, [clears throat] smartest guy I've met in crypto since I got in it. Listen to what he says about CBDC.

[00:10:37]>> Let's get one thing clear as as custard here. Okay. There's no privacy in stable coins.

[00:10:43]>> None.

[00:10:44]>> Right?

[00:10:45]>> Zero. The word privacy barely appears in the Genius Act. So for people who are saying, "Oh, CBDC is dangerous.

[00:10:54]Government's going to have all this data."

[00:10:57]>> There's no data protection. there's no uh uh privacy protection.

[00:11:00]>> And I've said this before, too, folks.

[00:11:04]If if if you can only issue a stable I don't care what they call it. If you can only issue a stable coin because the government allows you to issue a stable coin and it takes government approval, what's the freaking difference between that and a CBDC?

[00:11:19]Look, we're going into a controlled system whether you like it or not.

[00:11:24]You'll have good actors involved. You'll have bad actors involved. It'll be a it's going to be a political struggle just like you have in politics now. The socialists ver versus the conservatives.

[00:11:35]You got this socialist mayor up there in in New York. It's ridiculous. It's it's scary the things this guy's putting in place. You're going to have many struggles on the crypto front, the AI front, and it's going to be ultimately a struggle between those same political forces. The bad guys that were in office last time, they're going to try to use this to control you. They're going to try to use it to tax you. They're going to try to use it to control everything in your lives. The struggle is going to be to make sure that the good guys stay in power so that it can be used for good. Just like I've said before, any technology be can be used for good or for evil. A drone can be used for good to use in, you know, surveying land or something like that. But a drone can also be used to put a bomb on and go and and fly it into something and and bomb it or fly it into a building and bomb the building. So doesn't matter what the that's what's so crazy about all the fighting against crypto all these years.

[00:12:38]Every technology, it's how you use it that's what's important and that's what the regulators are for. What they've been trying to do with crypto is not is is not give it any regulations. So that you've got this gray area where they can just try to kill it. That's what the clarity acts about. That's what this is all about.

[00:12:56]>> Stable coins.

[00:12:58]>> So, but Chris, real quick, if if let's say I'm a bad actor and I did something with the stable coins, the government doesn't need a warrant. They could just walk up to Circle or whoever. The Bank Secrecy Act applies. So, the same government agencies that go to City Bank and say, "Give us all that information you've got." the same IRS that goes to Coinbase and says, "Give us information on all your crypto holders can go to to Circle and can go to um uh Tether and say, "Give us all your information of all the transactions that were done last Thursday in Washington DC."

[00:13:30]>> So, what's the solution here? Is it uh stepping back and not so much worry about the boogeyman of CBDC, but >> what it is is what I've said all along.

[00:13:38]It's growing up and realizing that the Bitcoin maxis when they were yelling down with the banks, down with the government, it was that was never going to happen. If I was 18 years old, I would have bought into that. But I'm 52 now and and I never bought into this stupid idea that crypto was somehow this libertarian movement that was going to we're going to all be doing things on our own. We don't have to worry about the government or taxes or any of that anymore. That's silly. That's child stuff. We are all ultimately controlled by governments. It's just the fact jack and it's always going to be that way.

[00:14:13]All we can do is do smart things to make smart and legal things to make sure that we are are doing the best we can in the rules that are provided for us.

[00:14:24]>> We need privacy laws in place where all of these >> So so look, I'm a big fan of the Genius Act.

[00:14:31]I think it was genius to assign to the American private sector the modernist digital modernization of the dollar. I don't have any faith our government could could modernize the dollar for a modern generation the way that I think circle and and and tether and paxos and others are going to do. Okay. Um so when it comes to the technical modernization you know making it available in wallets and making it the payment system of the future highest marks possible for Genius Act but Genius was a missed opportunity to reconsider the privacy of our financial transactions. I think it was it was the opportunity.

[00:15:11]>> All right. Um now here's John Deon on the fact and it is a fact. This is why we got to pass the Clarity Act. you'll get another bad guy like Gary Gensler at the SEC. That's where we need to pass it so they don't have the leeway that they have to use the gray areas to their advantage to hurt innovation. What if a a Gary Gensler comes in again, you know, and becomes the chairman or someone like him? He could undo everything because the rules that the SEC is doing right now are all just called guidance.

[00:15:48]It's not the law. Now, Genius Act is the law. But in order for to get a green light for Charles Schwab, for Fidelity, for Vanguard, for Black Rockck, for State Street, for these huge institutional players, they need 100% clarity that if they offer exposure to digital assets that they're that it once the when we get a new president, if the new president doesn't like crypto [snorts] and wants to go after crypto.

[00:16:22]Well, they would have to change the law.

[00:16:25]Right now, if Clarity Act doesn't pass, imagine that President Trump uh leaves office in three years. It's a new president. And imagine Elizabeth Warren is in charge again. And she be she would be in charge of the Senate Banking Committee. She's the senior person.

[00:16:44]She's the chairwoman now if the Democrats become control. and then she could put in another Gary Gensler and all they could do is go all the way back to way it was in lawsuits uh by the SEC and we would just keep flip-flopping and going back.

[00:17:02]>> He's right. But guess what? You know what the dirty little secret is? And I've said it a thousand times. I'll say it again. There is only one digital asset in existence. Sometimes I wonder if this was the plan all along. There's only one digital asset that exists on planet earth that is legally a commodity. The only thing that makes it legal is a is either a passing a law. In other words, this Clarity Act may make it may make 13 digital assets legally commodities. The only thing that makes something law is either Congress passing a law or a lawsuit. If you don't have a law, a lawsuit such as the SEC lawsuit where XRP was was legally declared a commodity because it won. So if the Clarity Act did not pass, XRP is the only legal commodity and I have to assume everything built on the XRP ledger would be included in that. You have to wonder, don't you? Okay, here's Ashish Burla and he's talking about the early days. Let me see. I'm at 18 minutes. I'll play this and then we'll go into the group. This is Ashish Burla talking about the early days at Ripple.

[00:18:15]The most modest office that you can imagine, right? Like no air conditioning. We just opened up the window sort of places. We made our own desks. You know, Chris Larson was like, "We're going to keep the lights on." All right. So, we're going to like be super frugal here.

[00:18:28]>> Yes. Um, but you walked into that office that in the morning and and you could feel the energy and uh, you know, we didn't know exactly, you know, how it was all going to unfold, but like we knew this was going to be big and uh, and and we knew that the XRP as like, you know, the base foundational layer was at the core of it. And so you had Arthur Bridto whiteboarding in one room and David Schwarz talking about consensus in another room.

[00:18:57]>> I bet they were doing XRP price valuations in another room.

[00:19:01]>> And it was just like it was like half being at school and it was like a invigorating conversation and half of us just tinkering and building.

[00:19:11]>> Okay, we're going to go into dixrp.com.

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