HNOW: Business with Garth Bray 27 May 2026

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-26

[00:08:45]morning. It's Wednesday, May 27. Welcome to Herald now business. Thanks to our partners, Two Degrees Business. I'm G Bray. Great to be back with you. Coming up, we have Infertil's chief executive on how investment in data centers and renewable energy has driven its result and how to grow MAI participation in high value tech sectors. Plus, what to expect from tomorrow's budget and what that might mean for households and businesses. But in news today, the US has struck at Iranian missile launchers and mine laying craft. Its central command said the strikes were conducted in self-defense. Meanwhile, talks to extend a 7-we ceasefire by a further 60 days continue. US Secretary of State Maro Marco Rubio has said there was strong agreement on what a preliminary draft should look like. Adding details would take a few days to iron out.

[00:09:36]Taking a look at how that's affected markets there. You can see the oil futures have responded to that fresh volatility adding around 3 and a half% to the front month and through the third quarter. Actually, the long curve a year out under 80 bucks a barrel suggesting someone somewhere sees an end do this.

[00:09:50]Uh just taking a look at a little bit of weakness across the board for our dollar as we prepared to dial in at 2 p.m.

[00:09:55]today for the May monetary policy statement along with a call on rates from uh the RBNZ. Looking at the US indexes, it's still all about AI. Some blockbuster days for semiconductor stocks like Micron, which is up 17%. Uh you can see the NASDAQ there leading gains. Pretty healthy numbers for the S&P 500 though. Uh and clocking the Asian market, it's a little softer there on the nic and hanging. We might need to make room for another player as Taiwan's exchange overtakes India to become the world's number five market by capitalization with just under 5 trillion US. That's driven of course by the chip maker uh TSMC. Here at home, NZX Oh, you look pretty this morning.

[00:10:35]closing up uh almost 100 points yesterday largely on the back of Fischer and Ple Healthc Care's uh s surge around $3.7 on another strong fullear result yesterday.

[00:10:47]A significant slice of the NZX50 reports earnings this week. We mentioned Fisher and Parkle Healthcare there also Ryman Healthcare Goodman Property out of the blocks with more to come this week.

[00:10:57]Matthew Goodson from Salt Funds Management joins us. Matt, what a great time to be a healthcare company in New Zealand from the >> terrible time if you're in Australia.

[00:11:07]What what really stood out for you from those results that we got yesterday?

[00:11:10]>> Yeah, we had 30% of the NZX 50 report yesterday and um look it was really the reverse AI trade of what's been going on around the world where AI and data centers have been winning and healthcare traditionally a quality growth sector has been uh really weak and in Australia it's been annihilated. So you know year to date we've had CSL down over 40% uh Coccia uh down over 60%. And I think going into FPH as a result yesterday there was a lot of nervousness >> uh as to how they would do but as it turned out they delivered at the top end of analyst expectations and gave solid guidance >> and so what we got a we bit of a relief rally almost as they as that number came in.

[00:11:50]>> Absolutely. Yes. Very very much a relief and short covering rally and I think when you really dig it apart there's a couple of things going on here. Uh CSL has had a they made a bad acquisition uh several years ago and they've had a couple of new competitors or more aggressive competitors uh come into their core blood fractionation business.

[00:12:11]Coccia has started to see the US consumer start to be afraid of paying for hearing implants to the extent that co-pays are required and insurance companies have started to get more aggressive on the size of a co-pays. FPH though if you're sick and you go to hospital with the flu you need humidified pressured oxygen to stay alive. It's not discretionary and that's 70% of their business and uh that's what was really the key driver of yesterday's result. So I think the thing that really made it stand out from CSL and Cclair is just the durability of that demand for their product that they're a clear global leader in.

[00:12:45]>> I didn't hear anything at all about sort of tariff exposure and tariff problems and manufacturing problems either. They seem to have largely weathered all of that, haven't they? uh to date there's still the the risk of section 23 uh 232 changes uh coming through in next year's result. uh their guidance range the midpoint was a little bit below current analyst forecasts but they've traditionally guided conservatively and given all the uncertainties at this stage on transport costs on tariffs uh the market took that very well saying look you've given us this range even though these uncertainties are still out there >> and like you said 30% of the market I mean they're about 17 or 18 they're about half of that right so when they move the whole NZX shifts pretty >> oh indeed yeah and it was only partially offset by infril which is about 12% of a 50 which is like you said a little bit of a backing off in that tech stock. Uh but just looking at a couple of the others that came out, we sort of see some numbers there from Ryman as well. I that's again an area you're building homes, you're building places for people to live in retirement. You would have thought that that is uh a sector with a long future, but obviously construction's being hampered at the moment.

[00:13:47]>> Yeah. I mean, yeah, Ryman was a $15 stock in the glory days. It's now a $2 stock. uh and I think what people in the market have realized is the retirement village sector doesn't generate a great deal of free cash flow. The costs of operating the villages are significant.

[00:14:02]But what happens when you have a housing boom is most of the village is funded by the occupants, a little bit by the bank and a little wee bit by the equity player. So you have all that capital working for a little wee bit of equity.

[00:14:14]So when the housing market's running, uh they're a great place to be. But for some time now, the housing market's obviously been tough. uh and the lack of free cash flow generation's been hampering these companies. So, Ryman was very much a case of hunkering down. Uh they're going to do about half the amount of development in this coming year. Uh and they're trying to get some it was a reasonable result out of their care business actually, which is not an easy business.

[00:14:37]>> Yeah, Goodman as well. We saw some numbers from them. Industrial property basically.

[00:14:40]>> Yeah, they have a dominant industrial property player. Um look, industrial property's been in a great place in the postco boom. uh everyone was desperate for a warehouse, desperate for some storage and some logistics space. Uh industrial sector basically there was no vacancy. That's started to change.

[00:14:57]There's been a bit of spec development which is only now coming on. So Goodman does have about 3% vacancy down from effectively zero. uh and you are starting to see lifetime rents flatline, but as leases come off, Goodman still has all that catch up from people, you know, who'd been on fixed leases for a period of time and are now rolling off.

[00:15:16]So, their portfolio is still well under rented. So, you know, it was a solid enough result, but what's really going to drive VM is the path of uh 3 to 5 year interest rates, which uh means the Reserve Bank today is going to matter more, I think, from here for them. And obviously their pricing uh and how that affects the market might well feed into some of those decisions. It's a bit of a chicken in the egg.

[00:15:36]>> For sure. Yes. Absolutely.

[00:15:39]>> How closely is uh is that OCR result or rather not the the call today but the the Ford track likely to be looked at?

[00:15:46]>> Well, that's the focus of the market.

[00:15:48]There's less than a 25% chance priced in that they'll hike. Uh we certainly think it'll be a mistake for them to hike. The market expects hikes before the end of the year though. Uh so just what is said and the conditionality around outcomes in Iran I think will be the key for what the market's looking for >> and exactly who said what cuz we get some transparency today. We get to see exactly how who voted and and what they said.

[00:16:10]>> Oh, isn't it great? You know when when this first came in we were world leading then we uh a few others overtook us. So it's really good to see we're certainly on the right path there.

[00:16:19]>> Great to catch up as well with you. Uh thanks to Matthew Goodson from Salt Funds Management >> Infertil. uh we're just talking about them, a $16 billion infrastructure investment company which despite a lot of market noise posted an 11% rise in its earnings. Uh has 20 billion in assets across New Zealand as well as investments in Australian data center businesses like CDC, US renewable energy company, Long Road Energy, all driving the company's growth. Infertil uh chief executive Jason Boy spoke with Katie Bradford after posting those fullear results yesterday.

[00:16:50]The main drivers of the result are really CDC, our data center business in Australia, and Long Raid Energy, our renewable energy business in the US. CDC forecasted that growth um strong growth over the year and uh exceeded the target we set for it uh two years ago. So that's coming through. And then Long Road Energy was a bit of a surprise for people which they saw at the half year, you know, up 170% over the year. That's really the effect of everything they've been building. It takes about two years to build one of these projects. Finally coming on stream and those earnings coming through so that people can see them. So those are the two main drivers.

[00:17:26]>> Data centers, renewable energy, AI, there's a trend at the moment, right?

[00:17:31]That they're what helping you.

[00:17:34]>> Both of those are definitely driven at the moment by the buildout of AI infrastructure. So when we look ahead, we see that theme continuing and throwing up more opportunities for those businesses to continue to grow. um and really step change their growth even more uh over time.

[00:17:52]>> What does that step change look like?

[00:17:54]>> You can sort of look back at this year and see what that could mean. So CDC in May announced 555 megawatt of new customer contracts. That's um doubling its business uh in the next uh 2 years.

[00:18:10]So, you know, doubling every two years is kind of been the theme for CDC and it looks like that's continuing ahead for Long Road as well. In this result today, we've announced a new project that it's bought, a very big one, nearly 3 GW in size. That's nearly the size of the business today, which it would build by the end of the decade. So, again, another business that can double in 2 to three year period. So, that's the type of thing we're talking about doubling every two years. Given that growth potential for growth and the global trend we're seeing with renewable energies and data centers, any plans to boost your operations here in both those?

[00:18:50]>> We we definitely look at that. So we have a small renewable energy development business called Mint Renewables that is focused on renewable energy development. We have a large stake in contact energy which is also devel developing renewable energies around New Zealand and CDC our Australian data center business actually is the biggest data center operator in New Zealand as well and is continuing to look at developments here. I think what would be most exciting for New Zealand would be finding a way to control our own destiny and have our own AI infrastructure that's in New Zealand for our own data for our own systems. That's something we're pretty passionate about here. So if we can find a way to help that happen in New Zealand, we're definitely up for that.

[00:19:31]>> And your other New Zealand operations, Wellington Airport, 1 NZ, they're both holding up resilient given the current economic conditions.

[00:19:40]>> It's definitely how we feel about them.

[00:19:42]If you look at their peers, they're sort of flat or down as well. And these guys managed to find some growth in a very difficult year. And also importantly for Infertil what we rely on them for is strong operating cash flow through to Infertil to fund some of the more exciting growth and these businesses outperformed actually in terms of their operating cash flow through to Infril uh which benefits the whole group >> and you've already announced the sale process for contact contact energy here QC scan in Australia. I note that um your results today talk about uh potential for another billion dollars in divestment. any hints there of what you're thinking about?

[00:20:21]>> No, we never identify exactly which businesses we have in mind. Although, if you follow us closely, you could probably guess mainly because that causes so much disruption for the businesses, it's not really fair. Our objective is to give people a sense of how we're going to fund the growth that we're describing, which is obvious obviously enormous on contact energy.

[00:20:39]We're still a big shareholder and happy to be so. Um, we did sell a third of our stake uh the other day, so um that is helpful for that future growth. Um but we haven't announced anything to do with the remaining stake just yet.

[00:20:52]>> That was Infrul Chief Executive Jason Boy speaking to senior correspondent Katie Bradford. Coming up, Deep Tech has been seizing the lion's share of venture capital here who has yet more potential to tap into that. Plus, a budget day outlook for business from one chair.

[00:21:09]>> Ah, here she is. How's the business going?

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[00:23:09]>> You're with herald now business. The newly formed New Zealand Institute for Advanced Technology will connect researchers, industry and investors.

[00:23:16]Artukatai is on the board and brings more than 25 years of food, fiber and climate innovation experience. Arta is also a strong advoc advocate rather for growing mod participation in high-tech high value tech sectors. Uh Kilda uh welcome here to uh Herald now business.

[00:23:35]Can you explain a little bit about what this reorganization of public science means from the point of view of the of the institute that you're on the board of there?

[00:23:44]>> Sure. Yeah. The institute is the uh newest public research organization and really the only one that's truly fully denovo. Um so effectively a startup in many respects and um it's its mission its objective is really to improve the translation of the great frontier research we have going on here in New Zealand institutions our universities our research organizations into a larger pipeline of commercial outcomes u that benefit New Zealand. So I mean ultimately um we invest you know a significant sum of capital in discretionary science research and this government the ministers have really asked this board and this new organization to be at the cutting edge of driving advanced technology research translation into commercial.

[00:24:32]>> That step to actually get things out of the lab and into commercialization.

[00:24:36]That's been a 20 year mission for this sector though hasn't it? We've had many goes at it. What's different about this one? It has I mean I think um fundamentally I think there's a recognition uh that there's a need for an alternative approach. We actually haven't had a new research organization formed in the last I think 36 years. um you know the reorganization of the CRIS those CRIs are still primarily based around technologies in areas where we're already very good primary industry as an example but advanced technology is really driving the growth of small advanced economies like New Zealand and and we need to figure out how to get our share to be to be honest I mean I think from living in California and looking from the outside in a little bit I think one of the things we really need to do is a better job of coordination we have the talent we have the resources often we have fantastic fantastic research. We have a commercial need and we've seen actually some fantastic companies produced out of New Zealand. Who would have thought we'd be in rocketry 10 years ago? Even even 10 years ago, it would have seemed ludicrous, right? But we now actually have a worldass worldleading rocketry company. So, you know, the issue isn't whether we can build unicorn companies is we're not building enough of them.

[00:25:47]>> Yeah. And are we making the most of the talent that we've got? I mean I know that you've got a particular interest in making sure that mighty potential is realized. Yes.

[00:25:55]>> So what are we leaving on the table in our system at the moment you think?

[00:25:59]>> Um look we absolutely have talent in abundance and I think you know an interesting feature about the MI population is that 70% of our population is 30 or under like it's demographically very distinct to the rest of the population. And you know, I think you don't you don't need me to say uh you know, we need to retain the talent that we have. Um but we also need to to grow that pipeline of talent. And um uh you know, I've sort of long believed, you know, we we need greater MI participation in STEM subjects. We have entities like Puhor, which is a private trust set up to actually help cultivate all the way back from high school um students. there's I think more than 4,000 Marty STEM students in their database which is a encouraging start.

[00:26:46]Um but I but I also think you know we we often get engaged in and work in the things we see mirrored every day and in the mighty economy if I can use that phrase you know that the bulk of resources are still allocated and working around land and landbased resources >> and on the sea a little bit.

[00:27:02]>> Oh absolutely natural res natural resources you know ta if I put it that way but um we're always saying people are our greatest resource. as well. I think it's, you know, it's great to see the investment that's going in particularly in education and scholarships, but we need more.

[00:27:15]>> So, if you look at um I guess Finsteer is the uh is the family office that you've been working through there.

[00:27:21]You've had a huge range of interests. Um where do you see the advantages? What are the lessons you've learned from the investments you've made there? And how would you try to apply those to try and you know, look at where we're missing things here?

[00:27:33]>> Yeah, it's a great question. Well, I think one of them is that deep technology, advanced technology takes time, you know, and so it's very rare that you find a deep tech company that suddenly goes from wo to go. Even a rocket lab or or a halter, there's an element of sort of foundational investment that needs to take place in order to build the the foundations for those businesses. And I think that takes patience um and focus and consistency that I think sometimes has been missing particularly when we have whatever the newest shiny thing is. You know now it's AI of course we do need to be an AI engaged nation and it's going to impact every sector that we're in. The hope is it might also speed up some of the actual you know progress from formation you know to really to a growth trajectory to you know escape velocity use that phrase. Um I think you know the other critical thing here too is that you know investment is a team sport. Uh and so I think in New Zealand we have a relatively small ecosystem.

[00:28:33]I'm I'm seeing more of that team sport attitude come out which I think is super encouraging.

[00:28:39]>> Well that's a great place to leave it for now anyway. Adama thank you very much for joining us here thisai from Bhut Partners.

[00:28:47]Tomorrow's budget comes with limited room to move if government prioritizes saving and fiscal restraint. What does that mean for households and businesses?

[00:28:55]Katie Bradford spoke to Hayden Wilson, New Zealand chair at Denton's and asked his expectations.

[00:29:01]>> Yeah, I think this is going to be an interesting budget. Uh, I think the most important thing is that it's probably not the budget that they sat down to write when they sat down late last year, thinking about um moving into an election year with the economy starting to come out of the doldrums. Being able to point to that achievement and say stick with us uh through the next election, you know, in in February this year, that all got tipped on its on its head. uh and you know the uh the war in Iran closure of the straight of Hummus the effect of that on uh the economy has only started to be felt and that really does narrow the government's options for for for this for this budget. They'll want to provide something to show the electorate that it's worthwhile sticking with a national le coalition into the next election period. But the constraints on them are really really tightened. And so they've been pretty clear that this is going to be a a conservative, fiscally sensible budget. Uh and we've seen some of that already in the announcements that have that have been made to date and I expect that will probably continue.

[00:30:12]>> What is the something that they could promise given all those constraints, but also knowing it's election year and they're going to want to make Kiwis feel better? How do you do that in a way that's I guess adding to productivity and long-term thinking at the same time?

[00:30:28]>> I think my theory is that everyone as they go into an election looks back at the last 3 years and and and asks themselves you know what has this government done that is has either made you know made my life better or will make my life better. Um and we got some indication of that from the uh from the prime minister's speech. You know it's very focused around security broadly drawn. So, we've talked about defense um security in terms of New Zealand's place in in a changing global world. Um energy security is is obviously a a key thing.

[00:31:02]And then ongoing economic security is a is is a is a is a real issue that that that New Zealand as a country has to deal with. The government's already announced um quite significant spending into into defense with about 800 million going into capital spending in uh in the defense sector and 700 million going into operational spending. Um there's been a couple of announcements about energy security with the uh new gas um transition loans that were announced uh 2 days ago. And then that kind of leaves economic security and and I suspect that there is something in the budget for that. Um I I wonder if it's something around um Kiwi Saver and continuing to increase New Zealand's savings rates because that feeds back into into the New Zealand economy. If if um people are saving and they're investing then then that money is then available um for economic growth and economic prosperity in New Zealand. But also we have this superanuation crunch coming. Everyone knows that it's coming and and this government and whatever the next government is has to find a way to to wrangle with that. And uh given those crunches and the fact that super and Kiwi Saver do look like it'll be an election issue, do you think that's enough to allow the government to feel uh like it's it's handing out something while still being responsible?

[00:32:31]>> I think if you can do something in Kiwi Saver that that people look at and go that will make this a better place for my children. Um particularly that's a really effective political strategy. It was what Helen Clark did with interest free student loans so so many years ago.

[00:32:49]You know that was designed to pitch to the moms and dads and grandparents of of children in New Zealand rather than to benefit them themselves. And I think investment in Kiwi Saver is is like that. Um there's been a lot of talk about um you know Fraser Winter's um super Kiwi Saver 2.0 O suggestion, you know, with with um almost a baby bonus account, and you've seen Winston Peters has come out, albeit at a lower level.

[00:33:16]Um that would be really bold uh if the government chose to to do that in this budget. Um but it would also be popular and it would also be the sort of thing that, you know, a future government is unlikely to, you know, feel able to to to take away even if even if they wanted to. So that would be one out of the box.

[00:33:38]Um but it would be it would be a real impact and it would um I think back of the envelope it's about 300 million a year. Um so it would be over the four-year budget period a $1.2 billion investment possible but very very tight given the constraints that the government has has set for it.

[00:33:58]>> We'll know soon enough. That was Hayden Wilson, New Zealand chair of Denton, speaking to Katie Bradford. Wrapping business with two degrees today. Shares in Ferrari have dropped 8 and a half% overnight after it unveiled its first fully electric vehicle, the luchi. The hows you'd expect from a twin turbo V6 engine have been replaced with hows of mockery from car critics. Hideously underwhelming and an insult to the mark.

[00:34:22]A cross between a Tesla 3 and a Honda Accord was one that I heard. Even a former Ferrari chair joined the pylon seeing a risk this would quote destroy the legend and hope that they'd remove the prancing horse from the car. Ferrari is famously supercontrolling of its new sales and resales process. Uh you could take a look at a very witty piece from business desk columnist Simon Robertson if you want to know more about that.

[00:34:43]It's apparently more like getting married into an Italian family and negotiating a prenup than taking a test drive and flashing your cash. What the social media backlash does to sales is anyone's guess, but in an interesting turn for Ferrari, it's reportedly giving equal priority to orders from new and traditional customers. Ferrari is clearly chasing the tech bros of Silicon Valley with a design steered by former Apple visionary Johnny Ivan, an upper body made from glass from Corning. The company earning a fortune supplying fiber optics to the AI data center buildout. So, I don't know. Is Ferrari making something that looks more like an iPhone on wheels a sign the tech bubble is about to burst? Who knows? But given the luche will set you back 640k around 1.1 million for many of us. This like anything involving Ferrari is a spectator sport. Well, that's that's us thanks to our partners two degrees Business. Up next, Ryan Bridge today.

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[00:39:42]C. Good morning. You're watching Ryan Bridge today. Great to have your company. Our apologies for being a little bit late this morning. It is Wednesday the 27th of May on the show this hour. It's OCR day today, so not likely to go anywhere. But when will it start rising? And we're going to speak to independent economist Tony Alexander about your mortgage and what it means for you. Oaklanders, buckle up. Wayne's got his 7.9% rates hike. We'll get a train set to boot. He's with us live in studio after 8 this morning. And we're going to challenge him on that. Plus, when was the last time you got a pay rise? MPs about to get a 2% bump.

[00:40:18]They'll be on over $180,000 for a backbencher. Plus remember ministers getting 50k for the living allowance in Wellington. Madma Davidson, David Seymour live before half 7. All that first here's Neva >> Herald now news powered by News Talk ZB.

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