Northern California Morning Forecast 5-27-2026

Ajouté : 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]From the Weather [music] NorCal Command Center, this is your morning update.

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[00:00:23]Good morning, everyone. I wanted to show you this time lapse of Lake Shastina.

[00:00:26]This is our Lake Shastina sky cam of time lapse from yesterday. It's of course sponsored by Ellwood Ranch. And you can see just a really interesting day. We saw the clouds really inundate the mountain. You could barely see the base of the mountain there. And in fact, if you look closely, you see just that light dusting of snow at the base of the mountain. Then those clouds really began to shoot in towards the mountain, and you couldn't really see any of it. But look at above that. I mean, really those clear skies. So, it's that orographic effect where the winds blow up the mountain. It really helps to give us those clouds that tend to develop over Mount Shasta itself. And then we really began to see even more instability produced later in the afternoon. Look at that rain, that snow working its way into a Mount Shasta, turning out to be a gorgeous, gorgeous sight. Once we clear these clouds out over the next day or so, we should probably start to see a bit more snow on top of Mount Shasta.

[00:01:23]Should be interesting and beautiful, nonetheless. All right, take a look at the radar from this morning.

[00:01:29]And we're really not seeing a lot of rainfall, at least in the early morning hours. I do expect it to kind of pick up a little bit later on this morning, and in particular, later this afternoon as well. All right, let's get into your Courier's Quick Cast for your Wednesday, May 27th. Your Skeeter Meter for this week, it's on a 2.5 on a 0 to 5 scale.

[00:01:49]There's a look at some of the advice that the mosquito Shasta Mosquito and Vector Control has for you. Just to kind of help keep your property from becoming a breeding ground for those mosquitoes, you can always call the Shasta Mosquito and Vector Control with the number on your screen. All right, here's a little bit what we have out the door this morning. Now, there're going to be some clouds, there're going to be some showers, some areas more than others through about 8:00 in the morning, but just be prepared for wet weather off and on throughout the day today and some heavier rainfall coming in for the second half of the day. So, the big picture is this, we've got that cold front is that's no longer really the impact here. It's the upper area of low pressure that is just to our south-southeast and it's the flow around that low giving us that instability.

[00:02:35]Chances for thunderstorms, the areas in green and that could include pretty much all of northern California. We take a look at your forecast coming in from the HRRR forecast model. Then, what's that?

[00:02:45]Well, basically, it updates every hour based on the current data and this is the latest as of this morning. There you can see some of the showers we could see kind of that wave pushing through, nothing terribly heavy. But, then by around midday, the HRRR does get a little bit more aggre- aggressive on some heavier showers coming in by late morning, early afternoon and then another round coming in after that as we go into tomorrow afternoon, excuse me, today, this afternoon into this evening.

[00:03:18]That will probably eventually push westward into Del Norte and Humboldt counties later on tonight and into early tomorrow morning. So, for today, chance for showers, chance for thunderstorms.

[00:03:30]Now, I don't expect thunderstorms until probably late in the day for places like the inland areas and maybe eventually the coast as well. And again, maybe some of those morning showers for the coast, but not much through most of the day.

[00:03:43]Tonight, I do expect temperatures in the 40s and 50s for the valley, 30s and 40s for the mountains and right around 50, give or take, for the coast. Here's your 7-day forecast. Again, we're not going to see lightning strikes for everyone in the valley. In fact, lightning strikes are going to be a better potential for the higher elevations, but we did see some yesterday in especially Tehama, Glenn, and Butte counties yesterday, and we could certainly see more lightning strikes for parts of the valley today and tomorrow, but then drying out and really drying out and warming up by the weekend. Now, I put the word AM in there for the coast because I think that's the best chance for showers today by the second half of the day into the evening, better chances for some heavier rainfall coming in and maybe some thunderstorms for the inland areas. I still have a chance for showers on Friday for Trinity County, but do note anything we see on Friday looks to be quite insignificant and maybe a better chance for places like Siskiyou, Modoc County, and the eastern mountains for some more thunderstorms possibly on Saturday. Yes, we're going to kind of wrap up or a go into the weekend for parts of the mountains with that potential for thunderstorms, but I do expect drier and warmer conditions for everyone by the second half of the weekend and early next week. So, cooler and unsettled through Friday and in some cases through Saturday as we saw on that 7-day forecast, shower and thunderstorm chances across the board at least through tomorrow, if not of course into Saturday as well, but again, that's mainly the higher elevations at that point. So, it's wrapping up near this weekend basically around Friday, Saturday, and then drier and warmer by the weekend and especially for early next week. So, looking at your deeper dive forecast, let's start off by taking a look at the satellite image or excuse me, the radar because the radar of course tells the story of what's going on this morning, right? And we're really not seeing you see this little band of moisture as it comes in. Now, notice too the positioning and all what's happening. You see how it's coming in from northeast down to the south and west. And some people say, "Well, why is it coming from that direction?"

[00:05:46]Typically, it comes from the west. Well, that's because we have low pressure down where south and east. It's the flow around that area of low pressure that is causing it to kind of move in this direction. And what happens is too, is you see these disturbances rotate around that area of low pressure, and that's what helps to squeeze out some of that moisture in the atmosphere. So, we're seeing these bands kind of coming through this morning. There'll be another band coming in behind that later this morning and early afternoon, and heavier rainfall possibility by around midday afternoon. So, again, you can clearly see the flow. I'm going to put my fist right here. You see the flow around that area of low pressure. Watch again. See how all of that energy, and then of course, it comes down on the north and backside of that area of low pressure, giving us that cool and unsettled weather pattern. So, there's that area of low pressure. There's the flow around it. We see these disturbances. See these little bands that kind of come on through. For tomorrow, more showers, more thunderstorms in the forecast, including the valley and even parts of the north coast. Then, as that area of low pressure shifts to the east, we start to see things begin to kind of taper off a bit. We still have a bit of a flow coming around that low, and you could still see a chance for a light shower.

[00:06:57]Now, what I'm expecting is a bit of a lull in any shower activity on Friday.

[00:07:02]And then, as we start to kind of shift that off even more to the east, we still have what we'll call convective activity developing, and I'd say mainly for Siskiyou, Modoc, and parts of the eastern mountains. You know, but maybe even parts of Trinity County as we go into Saturday afternoon. But, we could even see a few thunderstorms developing for some of the mountains on Saturday as well. And then, that should pretty much move on out by Sunday. Maybe some Sierra activity here, as you can see there. But, by Sunday into Monday, this is when high pressure will start to build in, and we'll be looking at drier conditions. And of course, warmer conditions as well. So, the Storm Prediction Center has gotten a little bit more aggressive on bringing this a little bit more to the west. So, I'd say most of northern California has the potential for thunderstorms today and tomorrow. And then going into your Friday, yeah, again, maybe a stray sprinkle or light shower.

[00:07:53]Even the valley, quite honestly, could see a stray sprinkle as well on Friday.

[00:07:57]And then if we were to advance this into Saturday, which it only goes out 3 days, you would probably see the potential for thunderstorms off to the north and east, so the valley. So, let's take a look at Futurecast. The timing has been kind of going a little bit uh in different directions uh each forecast model run.

[00:08:14]But there you can see that band of rain kind of pushing down to the south. So, midday, you remember if you watched Kruger's Quickcast, we were looking at uh really some heavier rainfall around midday, even for parts of the valley.

[00:08:27]So, we could see that, but this model, our in-house forecast model, won't really wants to take most of it in the south end of the valley and eastward.

[00:08:35]Bottom line, there will be some areas of some rain by midday. Now, you can see a heavier band that looks to push through around mid-afternoon today. This is when we could see some heavier downpours, maybe even some lightning strikes uh by mid-afternoon. And look at that, there's even some heavier rainfall working its way into Siskiyou County. That then works its way westward. Now, eventually the north coast, I'd say by this evening, will see some of that heavier rain pushing through. That moves on out.

[00:09:01]Again, still the flow around that area of low pressure. So, that's Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon, I'm still seeing this, and I saw this even yesterday, that the bulk of any activity on Thursday does look to be in the higher elevations on Thursday. Having a harder time getting that into the valley. However, we still have a very saturated atmosphere. Not out of the question for any of these thunderstorms that do develop to the north and east of the valley to kind of roll down into the valley by by the time we get into Thursday afternoon. So, we have to keep that chance in there for pretty much everyone in the valley on Thursday, but do know the chances will be higher in the mountains on Thursday. Then we go into Friday morning, see what happens Friday afternoon. We just have the partly to mostly cloudy skies out there, and there may be a passing sprinkle or light shower, but nothing significant is expected on Friday. So, a bit of a lull in the activity here, including Saturday morning, and then by Saturday afternoon, I'd say Siskiyou, Modoc, Lassen, th- this is where we have the best potential for that afternoon convection. What is that? Well, it's the daytime heat, leftover moisture, plenty of moisture still I'd say on Saturday, and that's where we can see some of those showers and thunderstorms developing for parts of the mountains Saturday afternoon. So, rainfall estimates again, I just Sometimes I hate to show numbers because people go, "Oh my gosh, we're going to see this amount." When you have these isolated and scattered showers and thunderstorms, you can't really predict exactly how much rain we'll see in particular locations, but we can see the overall trend. And that's where the color coding comes in, right? The darker greens and the yellows indicating where we're going to see I'd say the bulk of the rainfall, then you see less in the valley, and even less for the North Coast, believe it or not, because really the positioning of the low is really focusing most of the rain for Siskiyou, Modoc, Lassen, and Plumas counties, and then the mountains east of the valley as well.

[00:10:58]And then naturally, we see a little bit of that less rainfall in parts of the valley. But as you kind of get towards the west of that flow, you see a little less rainfall, and that's why I'm expecting less rainfall overall over the next couple of days for the North Coast, but you're still going to see rain, don't get me wrong. Now, take a look at snow because there has been some snow.

[00:11:18]Uh and we're going to see more snow, but mainly above 7,000 ft. You look at that, the summit of Mount Shasta possibly seeing over a foot of snow.

[00:11:29]Right? And then you can also see out towards Lassen Peak, doesn't look like we're going to see much there, but even parts of the Sierra and even the Warner Mountains getting a nice dusting of snow as well. I tell you what, there going to be some beautiful photos photo opportunities once these clouds part ways after the storm because there's going to be a fresh dusting of snow 7,000 ft and higher. Should be a beautiful sight. Drier than normal conditions here once this all passes.

[00:11:54]All right, so do know that this may be it for a while with near normal conditions down to our south. Warmer, too, eventually. Even though we're below normal now, it's going to warm up significantly by really especially early next week. So you can see the upward tick even with those cooler temperatures we're seeing temperatures going up by the weekend by Sunday close to 90 mid to even upper 90s by the time we go through next week. So kind of peaking looks like Wednesday of next week. But you get the idea we're back well into the 90s for the valley by the time we get into next week. And the lake level's still very healthy, right? We've been talking about that and I've been saying it's been healthy for how many months now, really even all season, but you get the idea. We're starting to see those begin to drop a little bit. As result, we're going to start to see these historical averages and even the capacity percentages begin to drop as well. But that's normal for this time of the year because we see less rain going into less water that is going into the lakes and more demand from us needing that water, right? But that's how it works. That's kind of the cycle of all of this, right? Beach hazard statement's been issued by the National Weather Service for this afternoon through Thursday evening for pretty much the entire coast. Risk for sneaker waves is going to be that biggest concern. So you can see the high wave heights we have for today and then it drops off a little bit for Thursday afternoon, but eventually dropping even more most likely by the time we get into Friday and into this upcoming weekend. Marine forecast for your Wednesday, pretty strong winds from the west at about 20 to 25 knots. Your waves from the northwest at 12 ft at about 12 seconds and a small craft advisory. Here's your neighborhood forecast sponsored by Dignity Health and Grange Co-op. Here you go. Temperatures in the 70s for most of Trinity County.

[00:13:32]Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be today and tomorrow. I still got that chance for a few stray showers here and there on Friday, but should be dry for the weekend and of course going into next week as well. Take a look at your North Coast neighborhood forecast. 60s, 70, 71 degrees for Garberville, 70 out at Alder Point. Now, I'd say for the coast in particular, Eureka, Crescent City, morning showers dry through most of the day and then by this evening tonight, more rain then more rain coming in on Thursday, dry for Friday through the weekend and early next week. Same story heading up to the north although the inland areas I think you'll see a chance for showers coming in by mid to late afternoon.

[00:14:11]And of course some of those morning showers as well. A chance for thunderstorms again for your Thursday, then by Friday I'd say you're dry and then dry and warmer this weekend and in particular next week. Siskiyou County, Wednesday, today, Thursday, Friday a slight chance for a stray shower, nothing heavy.

[00:14:29]Saturday, yeah, maybe a chance for a thunderstorm and then as we go into Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, we're drying out, we're warming up. Same exact story for Modoc County. It's drying out and warming up for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday of next week. And same story for the Eastern Mountains. Now, I would say this that by the time we do get into say Saturday, places like Burney most likely dry. But east of that, even east of Fall River Mills, so around Westwood, Susanville, Janesville, Portola, all seeing that potential for thunderstorms as late as Saturday and then by Sunday, Monday, Tuesday drying out. Now for the valley, again looks ominous. Not everyone's going to see lightning strikes today or tomorrow much like that of yesterday, but the potential is there for everyone to see it over the next 48 hours, right?

[00:15:16]There's your 7-day forecast for Chico.

[00:15:18]Still mostly cloudy and mainly dry.

[00:15:21]Listen, if we see a stray sprinkle on Friday, don't be surprised, but mainly dry and mostly cloudy and cooler on Friday. And then by the weekend, completely dry. And early next week, completely dry and warmer. 70 for Redding all the way down to Red Bluff, Palo Cedro, 70, 68° for Whiskeytown.

[00:15:38]There's your 7-day forecast for Redding.

[00:15:41]Chance for showers, thunderstorms today and tomorrow, dry by Friday.

[00:15:44]Temperatures warming up, especially for early next week. I'll be back again at noon for the latest check your weather.

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