How worried should you be about hantavirus? | The Current

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-14

[00:00:00]Hello, I'm Matt Galloway and this is the current podcast. It is a very different pathogen with a very different risk profile. But if the headlines about hivirus are giving you flashbacks to the early days of CO, you are not alone. In a moment, how the pandemic is shaping our social and psychological response to this outbreak. But first, I'm joined by Dr. Cameron Khan. He is an infectious disease physician at St. Michael's Hospital in Toronto. also the CEO of Blue Dot, which is a private company that tracks and analyzes infectious disease data from around the world. He's with me in our Toronto studio. Good morning.

[00:00:33]>> Good morning. Thanks for having me.

[00:00:35]>> Thanks for being here. These daily reports about new cases, people selfisolating might be giving people bad memories of 2020. Are you immune to uh that sinking feeling?

[00:00:44]>> You know, when when I first heard about this outbreak, I think it's kind of a natural feeling to go, "Oh, uh this sounds familiar."

[00:00:53]>> And you know, I can understand how people would look at this. There's a cruise ship. There's a severe respiratory illness. Like it sounds a lot of uh a lot familiar uh to the early days of the pandemic. And so um but you know when I look at this objectively >> this is not co 19 and this isn't going to become the next pandemic.

[00:01:14]>> So at this point and this is the key thing at this point how serious of a risk do you think this ha virus poses?

[00:01:20]>> Yeah first of all this is a serious outbreak. Let's just be totally clear.

[00:01:24]Um, you know, this is a deadly virus.

[00:01:26]Uh, we know that if you happen to be a person who was on that ship or a contact, this is like very serious. Um, but you know, in terms of its potential to become much broader, like of pandemic proportions, it just doesn't have the legs to do that. And and I say that for a few reasons.

[00:01:44]>> You know, first is we've known about this virus for roughly 30 years or so.

[00:01:49]And you know we don't have all the answers for for this particular virus but but what we do know is that it's not as efficient in terms of its ability to spread from person to person as say SARS KV2. And we also know that in all the outbreaks over the last 30 years that we've seen in in South America, the kind of standard protocols, isolating people who are sick, uh quarantining and observing those who are contacts, like those have all been effective in bringing these outbreaks under control. And and more recently, the genetic sequencing of the virus in the current outbreak, you know, the preliminary analysis is that it looks pretty similar to what we saw in the past. this virus hasn't changed in some profound way. So, a serious outbreak, it will probably get worse before it gets better. And I think we're going to be talking about this for months. Um, but this is not going to become the next pandemic.

[00:02:45]>> What are you watching for right now?

[00:02:48]>> I think the things that are I'm most concerned about, like all of the cases to date are directly traceable back to someone who was on the ship. And it's the contacts of people who might have been exposed before we knew this was an outbreak. You know, some of those travelers, I think it was St. Helena, they got off and disembarked and then some of them went back home, you know, on commercial flights and so forth.

[00:03:14]>> And it's possible that some of these other other individuals may have been exposed.

[00:03:20]>> So far, thankfully, all of them have tested negative. We know that this can present with generalized symptoms.

[00:03:27]people are going to develop fevers or cough or a pneumonia. Um so we'll have those triggers which I think is appropriate. Um I think what I would be concerned about and the complexity of managing the outbreak will increase significantly if one of those non cruise ship related individuals are you know test positive for for antivirus >> which suggests there will be I mean again this is these phrases that we all became familiar with after 2020. this idea of contact tracing >> correct >> is going to be so important.

[00:03:59]>> So contact tracing if one of them becomes positive you now have a whole much broader sphere of people who need to be followed and again reminder of the incubation period here that's the time from you know when someone's exposed to the time they develop illness >> um you know that can be up to six weeks and so you know we're going to be watching this for for some time. part of the things that you do with with blue dot is to kind of have the radar up, right? Um and you're looking around to see what's going on with infectious diseases around the world and you picked up what in December of last year >> that something was changing with a specific strain of antivirus. So, you know, just briefly, like Blue Dot, what we're doing is we're consolidating information around the world because there's outbreaks happening all over the place um on any given day and some of them in animals that could spill over to humans. Like there's all this multilingual data from all the world's languages and so forth. So, we're bringing this all together and organizing it. But we're not just taking a look at what the snapshot is of today.

[00:04:59]We're looking at trends that suggest that maybe something is changing. Maybe something is unexpected. So one of the things that we had picked up on and alerted all of our clients to which include governments and industry partners and and hospitals and so forth was that the epidemiology of antivirus in Argentina was shifting. And so what we were seeing was a shift towards certain regions of the country more in the central region of Argentina where we don't typically see as many cases and also higher fatality ratios where people are more likely to die and these are often people in their 20s and 30s who are young and otherwise healthy. So that was a little bit of a you know uh a precursor that the landscape may be changing and this this may be related to a variety of factors but I I suspect maybe climate change may be an important factor here. So is there the risk that because you have folks who are on this cruise ship from all over the world >> that they've now dispersed and gone to wherever they live or wherever they're isolating or what have you that that strain and the things that you were picking up on could take hold elsewhere?

[00:06:03]Well, look, first of all, I mean, the strain that we're talking about, there are many different types of antiviruses.

[00:06:08]There's kind of old world antiviruses you find in Europe and Asia, and then there's so-called new world antiviruses.

[00:06:14]Uh Andy's virus is one of them. That's the particular strain we're talking about in this outbreak, and that's the only known hivirus uh that we know of that can spread from person to person.

[00:06:24]So while it's possible that as people start to disperse and go different places, it's possible you could to have some ongoing transmission, but all of the cases today are they have been moved in very controlled circumstances. They are in facilities and institutions that are um prepared to accept patients with so-called high consequence pathogens like antivirus. So I think everything has been done quite well from an operational standpoint today. The question that I have coming back to you know the earlier point is the contacts or potential contacts who may have been exposed who are not on the ship you know none of them are positive to date but that's the place that I would be looking to.

[00:07:07]>> What do you make of and you've hinted at this how the World Health Organization but other uh local health authorities have handled this thus far.

[00:07:15]>> I would say from an operational and logistical standpoint it's kind of remarkable actually. I think, you know, you've got a a ship in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean with this deadly outbreak. Um, somebody's got to figure out, well, clearly the ship does not have the facilities to manage critically ill patients. Somebody's got to figure out where this ship is going to go and where the patients who are sick are going to be treated, how the contacts are going to be managed. They're from citizens from all around the world.

[00:07:41]They're being repatriated. It's when I look at the logistics of that operation, it's actually kind of pretty remarkable to see how well it's been done. If I am to look at this and and think a little bit of are there some areas that perhaps we could do better. You know, one of the things we we may recall during CO was that there was, you know, differing opinions on how we should manage this situation. One jurisdiction might decide that they were going to manage it this way and and this was confusing for the public. And we're seeing a little bit of that now with how long do we put people under quarantine? Is it, you know, 6 weeks? Is it less? Um, and so I think consistency of messaging is going to be really important to allay the public's fears and concerns.

[00:08:26]>> Fears and concerns are, and we're going to talk more about this in terms of just what the last several years that we went through have shaped how we respond to these things.

[00:08:34]>> Um, but you have a huge gathering, you know, here and in Mexico and in the United States coming up in a month. It just, it was a month yesterday until the World Cup begins. ostensibly, you know, thousands and thousands of people will be traveling around the world to come together. Do you worry about that?

[00:08:50]>> You know, first of all, you're right.

[00:08:52]Like there's 48 countries, if my my memory is correct, that are like converging on 16 cities in in three countries. So, you know, this is a global mass gathering. This is the reality of the world that we live in today. Uh convergence of people and then they go back and and clearly these can be amplification events for for outbreaks. you know where when I think of these types of mass gatherings the things that I think are maybe more likely measles that's like that would be a real concern uh >> particularly given you know that Canada and the United States have lost their measles exemption stats >> I mean it's not just the host countries that actually have an uptick in measles but also around the world but when it comes to antivirus again in this situation we've got you know I think as of today about 11 cases or so they are all in facilities being closely managed.

[00:09:41]The contacts are being very closely followed. So, I don't have concerns about this at this point in time. I think it's notable. We got to keep our eye on it. And this is work that we're actually doing with clients today at Blue Dot. Um, but I think again if we start to see those other noncruise ship related individuals, if any of them become positive, then I think this, you know, we need to certainly take additional steps to be uh prepared for the possibility that this might impact the games. But at this point, I might I don't see that risk. going to let you go. But just finally, one of the things people will say, and they said this over the last several years, that it's not um if the next pandemic happens, it's when the next p pandemic happens. You say this is not going to be that, but that will be coming at some point in time.

[00:10:28]What did we learn and have we learned enough from what we all went through that convulsive event of of CO so that we are prepared for whenever this thing comes?

[00:10:38]>> You know, it's it's really interesting.

[00:10:40]I feel like um you know you just highlighted there have been eight global infectious disease emergencies declared by WHO in the last what 16 years so the math is roughly every two years there's an Ebola Zika co virus >> your number is going to come up >> you know it's this problem isn't going away and so I think the investment in our state of readiness and especially in a country like Canada I mean we are almost by definition a microcosm of the world so interconnected so interdependent with what's happening in the rest of the So I think a key lesson is we have to maintain that state of readiness and that's challenging to do when we are you know outside of an outbreak uh >> and exhausted by the last outbreak >> and exhausted. It's almost like we want to forget but it's important that we maintain that readiness uh but also not let emotion and and and I get it. We're humans. We're emotional beings but to not let emotion get the better best of us and perhaps drive us to do things that are counterproductive. It's good to have you here. Thank you very much.

[00:11:39]>> Thanks for having me.

[00:11:40]>> Dr. Cameron Khan is an infectious disease physician at St. Michael's Hospital and the CEO of Blue Dot, which tracks and analyzes infectious disease data around the world. He was with me in our Toronto studio.

[00:11:53]Steven Taylor is a professor in the department of psychiatry at the University of British Columbia and author of the psychology of pandemics: preparing for the next global outbreak of infectious disease. Stephen, good morning to you.

[00:12:04]>> Good morning, Matt.

[00:12:06]>> This is not that. And yet that unsettling feeling is in the pit of many people's stomachs. Are you um are you familiar with that? Do you understand where that's coming from?

[00:12:16]>> Um it's it's understandable. Yeah. This uh antivirus outbreak reminds us um that many people are still very anxious about their health postco.

[00:12:28]>> What do you think that's about? I mean what is it that that shapes how people react to this specifically about what we have gone through?

[00:12:36]>> Yeah, there's a there's a number of things that seem to be going on. Um first off, the people who are most uh likely to get anxious about an outbreak like this tend to be people who who have a level of high level of health anxiety for for whatever reason it could be.

[00:12:51]They've just been like that for a long time. They could have health concerns and they have difficulty tolerating uncertainty. And then you have a situation with this outbreak that as has been mentioned it superficially resembled the onset of CO and you have the characteristics of this dangerous virus. It's unfamiliar to most people.

[00:13:09]Uh there's uncertainty about its incubation period. So you don't know whether you're interacting with someone who's infected or not. So those things can ramp up people's anxieties and and this fear level is also amplified by social media. I noticed there are a number of conspiracy theories circulating um around social media. Um, one other thing that that can come up which can inadvertently amplify people's anxiety is the kind of messaging um that health authorities give out and and sometimes it's difficult to avoid problems. But if you give out the don't panic message, don't panic about the hivirus. This is not co this is not a pandemic. what what you're doing is you're pairing in people's minds panic and hivirus giving them uh leading some people to wonder whether there's something to panic about and that's called the ironic effects of negation and that's hard to get around with public health messaging especially when you've got people asking is this going to be another pandemic so that sort of thing can um inadvertently amplify people's anxieties >> how much of that do you specifically tie to what we all went through during co in terms of how that shaped how we respond to something like this. I I think co played an important role in in shaping this uh for people but this kind of reaction predates co for example if you look at how people react to outbreaks of aven influenza and I mean outbreaks in poultry farms there are very few cases of aven influenza infecting people but most of the outbreaks precoid and post have been in poultry farms when those outbreaks occur people in the surrounding communities become anxious and the consumption of poultry products drops precipitously, but that's a short-lived um kind of fear reaction.

[00:14:58]And when I heard about the hivirus outbreak on the cruise ships, I wondered to myself, is this going to be like the uh aven flu sorts of reactions? I guess we'll have to wait and see.

[00:15:09]>> You mentioned the messaging that comes out of public health. And one of the things that CO did was get people a to pay attention to public health, but also there were a lot of people whose trust in public health authorities was eroded by um the pandemic and and particularly some of the steps that were taken by public health. Talk more about that and how our trust in public health perhaps has been shaped by what we went through.

[00:15:33]>> Yeah, trust in public health is hugely important and it has been undermined during co uh and afterwards by a bunch of things. One is the rise of of of misinformation um around and the other is the so-called battle of the experts where you've got so-called experts um arguing alternative positions whether it be on vaccines or or other health measures and and that can erode people's confidence too.

[00:16:00]the conspiracy theories and the misinformation, I mean that exists uh in in any number of fields, but the prevalence of social media right now and a disease that uh perhaps people don't fully understand or a virus that may or may not be spreading beyond what people think can amplify that as well. Tell me a little bit more about what you've seen from from that world of conspiracy theories and again how much of that is tied straight back to what we all went through during co >> Yeah, talking about conspiracy theories is kind of tricky because I don't want to describe them because I don't want to promote promote the theories but but let me just say they're recycled. Most conspiracy theories are recycled. You know, a shadowy group of malifactors trying to exert world domination. So those have been coming up. I think what's particularly interesting is who posts and promotes conspiracy theory theories. Um, sometimes they're conspiracy entrepreneurs, people who post these things because there's some kind of financial kickback. You might put up a Tik Tok video and get lots of views and get ad revenue, for example, uh, if for your conspiracy theory. Or some people are trolls. They they put these things up just to wind people up.

[00:17:11]Um so those things are happening and can can inflate people's sense of threat.

[00:17:17]This arrives at a time when the news is not great broadly. And so I wonder what people might be able to do to manage their anxiety because it can be a natural inclination to again you hear this story. It sounds familiar. There's a cruise ship. What's going to happen?

[00:17:33]Are we still in in in the continuum of of what we live through over the last 5 years? So what would you say to people about how they could manage their anxiety?

[00:17:42]>> Um yeah, we live in an era of poly crisis. Um and for managing anxiety, I I would suggest three things is stay informed, but avoid doom scrolling. You know, you got to find a balance there.

[00:17:55]Um use whatever coping strategies you use for manage anxiety. You might have learned some during co or afterwards.

[00:18:02]Try those things and if they don't work, then I suggest talking to someone. It could be your family doctor. It could be a mental health professional. I know many people are increasingly turning to chat bots for advice about psychological issues. I would be very careful about doing that because these bots are not designed for that sorts of thing and um you problems can arise.

[00:18:22]>> Do you think we're psychologically prepared for the next major pandemic whenever that comes?

[00:18:27]>> It depends what you mean by prepared if uh I guess yes and no. we're we're um prepared in that people are familiar or many people are familiar with what what is required that we go through um let's say lockdown or masks and so forth but people are also prepared in ways that are counterproductive I would expect if there was ever a threat of lockdown all the disruptive things we saw in co would happen earlier and faster for example panic buying um you can bet that uh if we had any lockdown like scenario coming up today there would panic buying right away. Um whereas it took a few weeks during co there would be that those sorts of things.

[00:19:08]>> Stephen, it's good to talk to you about this. I mean again just one of the reasons why we wanted to have this conversation is because there are a lot of familiar feelings that people are having um based on on what we live through and so kind of checking that with with what's real uh and how people can manage those feelings is important.

[00:19:23]Thank you very much.

[00:19:25]>> Thanks Matt. Steven Taylor is with the department of psychiatry at UBC and the author of the psychology of pandemics preparing for the next global outbreak of infectious disease. He was in Vancouver. You've been listening to the current podcast. My name is Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening. I'll talk to you soon.