تحليل لتراجع مؤشرات مديري المشتريات - جلسة المساء

本站添加: 2026-05-19

[00:00:00]Joining us from New York is Steve Sosney, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers.

[00:00:06]Welcome, Steve. Let's just comment on what we heard from JPMorgan. Why do they see the decline in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and purchasing managers' indices as a major threat to cyclical stocks today?

[00:00:28]Good evening. It's always a pleasure to speak with you.

[00:00:32]Yes, that's right. I agree with JPMorgan. I haven't seen the full report, by the way, but it's clear that if these measures and activities are declining, it certainly tells us that the cyclical part of the economy isn't as strong as it should be.

[00:00:53]This is my opinion, a fair, just, and intuitive assessment because it's clear that spending on artificial intelligence has been driving the economy more than anything else. We have to ask whether this is replacing other spending or distorting the picture. We don't know yet; it's too early to judge.

[00:01:17]Okay, let me ask you about something because today there's a lot of focus on bonds. Among the G7 economies most vulnerable to the effects of weak UK debt, there's been a lot of attention. What about Japan? Japan has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world.

[00:01:37]The world's bond yields are also rising sharply.

[00:01:40]How concerned should we be about these trends and their impact on the markets in general?

[00:01:50]You've hit the nail on the head. This is the most important factor and the most significant event currently unfolding in the markets: the rise in global bond yields. We've certainly seen upward movement in previous periods. For example, on Wednesday in the United States, we saw the yields exceed 5%, the first time this has happened since 2007. Of course, we don't want to dwell on 2007. Why are yields rising worldwide?

[00:02:24]Friday was one of those days when sentiment in the bond market was very different; there was selling all over the world. You mentioned Japan; yes, their yields are high, but they are still lower than those of other countries. The United Kingdom, for example, had the worst yields because they are suffering from political problems specific to them. However, the yields on US bonds, specifically the two-year bonds, are above 4%, the ten-year bonds are above 4.5%, and the five-year bonds are above 30%. This represents a significant shift in market psychology, and you are right that... Bond investors, bond investors, excuse me, but they seem to be worrying now about a new idea: that countries are carrying more debt than they can afford to repay.

[00:03:23]Okay, in this case, I mean, you said, Steve, that we don't want to remember 2007. Nobody wants to remember 2007. If we remember it now, what does that mean for the markets going forward?

[00:03:37]What are we afraid of?

[00:03:43]I'll tell you something: people involved in private credit and private lending always ask me if we should remember 2007 when risky real estate was overvalued. Now, they're worried about private credit in general, or loans to private companies and individuals.

[00:04:09]Not everyone has private credit, but many ask me if we should also remember 1999 and 2000, which was a difficult period. There are also similar factors because there's a straight upward movement. Movements are not usually straight upward in sectors like technology and large sectors, and in that case, it didn't happen. In 1999, this didn't happen thanks to the Federal Reserve's easing of restrictions, which alleviated many concerns stemming from the anxieties of 2000 and Whittock Ferrers. So the situation is somewhat different now.

[00:04:54]However, the questions I'm asked depend on the individual, their location, or the period they lived through. If they lived through 2007 and were old enough then, they'll ask me about that period.

[00:05:11]Younger investors, on the other hand, don't ask me about those periods. They see every downturn as a buying opportunity and understand selling because they haven't lived through long periods or difficult crises. Those crises they did experience, like the tariffs or COVID-19, were resolved quickly. These are the crises they witnessed, and they were resolved swiftly. They have n't gone through prolonged crises like we have. Therefore, there are two types of investors based on age and experience.

[00:05:40]Remember that institutional managers' age doesn't matter when it comes to performance and the superiority that must align with the market. Whether they recognize the similarities or comparisons, they must maintain exposure. It's fitting, maybe that's why they say Jan X is stronger than us. Jan X, Steve, let me ask you again, how does that reflect on stocks? What is the impact of this expected change in bond yields on the strategy of stock investors, between cyclical versus defensive?

[00:06:21]Theoretically, people should move towards defensiveness. Realistically, we can't judge. I learned this very early in my career, in 1987. Now I've exposed myself and my age.

[00:06:38]At that time, bond yields were very bad. It was a bear market, and bonds were declining every day. Stocks were in a daily rally until it stopped one day, and that was the crash of '87. What happens with yields in bonds and stocks is that higher yields should equal lower valuations. But what we see now is moving based on expectations or spending in artificial intelligence. This is what moves the stock market, and we will know a lot about AI spending later this week from Nvidia and others. We will also know more about defensive stocks in the middle of the week.

[00:07:26]Therefore, it is a very, very important week because we will learn information about two economic sectors that matter to people more than anything else: consumer goods and artificial intelligence. People will be surprised because Walmart has a higher price-to-earnings ratio than even Nvidia, despite Nvidia's growth forecast being higher than Walmart's. So there's a lot we need to dissect, digest, and understand. But higher bond yields should equal lower stock valuations, or in reality, the situation isn't that simple.

[00:08:00]Thank you, Steve. I'll have to end the interview before I tell you my age. Steve Sunik is a senior strategist at Interactive Brokers. You were with us from New York. Thank you very much. Tak.