Friday's Best NBA Props & Bets Today May 1st

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-03

[00:00:17]What is going on everybody? Welcome back to the channel. We are coming off of a bad free pick day. Let's talk about the free picks. Yesterday, Randall with a hook. Jaylen Brown with a hook, Jason Tatum with a hook. I mean, it was just bad hooks galore. And then Brunson, obviously, when you have the Knicks beating the Hawks by 50 points. What was that game? Now, let's talk about that game because I had some big money on that game. I put a,000 bucks on the Knicks last night right here. It was minus 145. A little bit more juice than I would want to run it. Um, you could have got it at minus 135 on Novig, but the thing about Novig is you can't get big volume sometimes. The most I could get on Novig was like 150 bucks. So, I ended up just throwing a thousand over on Dicey. If you guys haven't signed up on Dicey, I am doing something um like a $500 giveaway. So, five people will win $100. It was supposed to be a 48 hour giveaway that I did like three days ago.

[00:01:14]Like we had like four deposits. I can't I we got to have more people in it than that. So, I'm in my Discord. The Discord's free link in the description.

[00:01:23]You click the link and then you guys can go sign up for Dicey using our link and or you use our code. It's code ACES and anybody that makes a deposit on there.

[00:01:30]We'll be in a giveaway uh for $100. Five people will get picked. So, I'm doing that. I'm going to give it probably to the till Sunday and then I'll go ahead and pick a winner as long as we get some deposits or some people actually playing on it because we had like a hundred signups just like five deposits or four deposits I mean. So, uh anyways, that is there if you guys want to try it. Um, they have good odds and most of the time they have some cool things coming up pretty soon. It's not an app. It is a sportsbook website. So, if you guys do sign up for it, just know that you can't download like an app like prize picks or anything. You have to go through the web browser. But all that information is in the Discord. If you send me a message, I'll help you out in any way that I can.

[00:02:05]But that is there. Regardless, I am going to pick a winner from yesterday's video to win free VIP. We did not hit our like threshold. I'm going be honest with you guys. Uh, it shows our view count right here at 2100, which I mean, views are are down right now. It always goes down at this part of the year. I don't know why. It just regular routine.

[00:02:24]But we got 230 likes. So, I'm still going to pick a winner because I'm feeling generous. It is May 1st. The end of April was very, very good. I forgot or I don't have a screenshot of pick it as of right now. I will try to put it in tomorrow's video because I totally forgot about that till I just looked.

[00:02:40]But anyways, the end of the month was good. I ended up green for the month.

[00:02:44]Now, it started off very, very rough.

[00:02:46]The profit this month wasn't nearly as good as the launch of Marth March. And I'll show both of those in both of those in the next video. But that is there.

[00:02:54]230 likes not there. We got to get 250 today. And I'll pick a winner for free VIP. But I am going to pick one from yesterday still. Just make sure today's gets 250 if you guys do want a chance at winning. And I'll have a baseball video coming after this one as well. So make sure you guys are watching both videos.

[00:03:09]But let's go ahead and pick our winner from yesterday. You got to be a subscriber. Make sure you guys are leaving a like and a comment. Make sure you're subbed. Winner is going to be for Joshua Carbo Productions who said, "VIP worth it to be honest." Well, man, since you're already in VIP, I do appreciate you. You got yourself a free month now.

[00:03:22]I appreciate the love and support from you, my man. And um yeah, I mean, there you go, guys. VIP worth it to be honest.

[00:03:29]That's what he says. So, as long as he's having a good uh a good experience for him, he'll he'll stay. And I mean, obviously, every day is not going to be green, guys. But we'd like to have you guys in there. And if you do want to try it, there is a W link in the description. Code 30% off right now is playoff. just use that for the entirety of the NBA playoffs. You can get 30% off your first purchase. You can do monthly, weekly, or you guys can do yearly, too, and get a very, very big discount on the yearly if you sign up for that. But that being said, let's go ahead and talk about these games. So, we have the Pistons versus the Magic in game one, the Cavs versus the Raptors, and then we have the Lakers versus the Rockets. Now, we got some very, very competitive games today. We got minus 160 as the worst value on any of these games, which is very, very good. So, I know you guys just saw I put $1,000 on the Knicks. I'm probably going to do the same thing on a slip today. I'm going to throw a grand on somebody, maybe a little bit more.

[00:04:18]We'll see depending on how confident I am. I will say it probably won't be from the Lakers Rockets game. It'll either be the the Cavs Raptors game or the Magic Pistons. And I got to figure out which side I want to take on this one because these are tough calls. They really are.

[00:04:31]But, we're going to I got two slips locked in. We're going to talk about those two two slips and then um I'll show you locked in live and then we'll go over some money lines as well. And I do have my novig open in case we do want to run a NBA parlay there. But let's talk about game one. Pistons versus Magic. This is a game that is a what three two series. Is that where we're at right now? 3 to2. Detroit is losing right now. So Magic can end the series right now. The odds in this game right now, Magic are plus 151 at home. Three and a half point spread. Very low scoring 209 and a half total. When you look at the public betting on this, you have majority of the money going to be on the Magic side of things. It's crazy to me to see 80% of the money on the Magic. I will say that. I I figured most people would be on Detroit today. 90% of the Magic covering this three and a half point spread, which um that one I don't I don't disagree with really. But when you look at these teams, you have to look at the Detroit side of things.

[00:05:26]Tobias Harris questionable. Was a big loss for them. Kevin Herder also questionable. You got a couple guys here that that may not play and I think they're going to play, but you never know. Um Orlando, you have Vagner missing right cast strain. He's going to be out again tonight. He was out the last game which they kept very very close. I was surprised by this for the game to be a seven-point game in Detroit. I kind of thought Detroit would win by a little bit more than that. Then you got Jonathan Isaac who was also doubtful. Now this game in Orlando worries me for Detroit because if Detroit is it's win or go home. Like they have to win this game. Take it to game seven. They got to win two in a If they can win this game on the road, they can have the final game in Detroit and have a a beautiful chance at winning here as long as their team stays healthy. So, for me, this game, I'm looking at Detroit as long as Tobias Harris plays. If Tobias Harris sits, I don't know where I'mma fall on this game. So, I got to wait, see where injury news lies on this and then I'll make my decision based off of that.

[00:06:21]Where the odds are right now, Detroit at minus 150. Not super great odds. I don't like playing the lines like that because throw a,000 bucks on it, you're going to win like $500, which is a pretty big risk for a lot of risk for I mean a decent reward, but it's still not that great. You just usually don't want to play juice lines like this. But for playoff purposes, I'll end up doing something like that just for fun. Uh not as the most like the best bang for your buck or whatever, the most um best return on your investment, whatever. But regardless, leaning Detroit here as long as Tobias plays. If Tobias sits, like I said, I don't know where I'm going to be in terms of player props for this game. I do like um I do like I kind of like Ben Carro. I'm not going to say I love Benro here, but he dropped 45 points his last game. This guy was a a monster. 45 points. They have got to stop him from dropping 30 to 40 points this game. Now, he put up what, 31 field goal attempts, 55% majority of games, he's not doing that. You can see that's just a very very big outlier game where he just popped off in Detroit and tried hard to end the series in the last game. Now this game in Orlando, I know we talked about ban ban banning Berro because he is not the most consistent guy. This is a spot where I don't mind taking him and I haven't locked him in a bet yet, but I do think that he is a a premium choice for Orlando tonight. his line is 23 and a half points. When you're putting up I mean 18 field goal attempts isn't a great line that you want for for um for the line that he has. But when he put up 31 shots last game, I don't I don't mind taking it. Now Veno is a stat fielder majority of the time. He can get a a lot of rebounds and assists. You can see averages 15 over his last uh last 10 games. So I don't mind taking P here as well. 61 P the last game. 36 is his line. anything up to 30. I probably lean 34 and a half is probably the line I would like to take for Benoa. That's what I usually take even during regular season. I think this is a good line.

[00:08:22]Now, if you take it straight betted is minus 176. A little bit too juiced to take there, but I like this line for 30 for at 34 and a half for Beno. I'm just going to throw that out there. Even though this is not a play that I locked in for the free slips, just throwing it out there. But I do like this and I'll probably throw it in a slip as well later today. Um, from the Detroit side of things, I'm leaning Duncan Robinson again, guys. I mean, the guy put up 16 PR his last game. He put up 12 points for us. The thing about his points prop is nine and a half points. I'mma buy it down to eight and a half first of all and the line's going to be minus 190. So you can get it on price picks for a little bit better value. It's going to be a goblin. You can get it on parlay play as well. But looking at Duncan Robinson, man, eight and a half points when you're putting up eight field goal attempts is not a bad line. You can see right at nine field goal attempts average over his last 10. Over his last 20, he's averaging 8.7. So you can about guarantee he's going to give anywhere from seven to eight shots or more.

[00:09:14]Usually what he gives. Majority of those are going to be three-pointers. Six three-pointers on every game this series minimum. Some of these games he has seven and eight three-pointers. And then obviously a couple free throws a game.

[00:09:23]Not a huge um foul draw or anything like that. But still, when you're putting up nine field goal attempts and a lot of threes, nine points is not a lot. He can have a bad game. He can go 0 for six on the three-point line and chalk us. I don't think it's going to happen. You can see some of these games he gives us 20 points per game. I'm gonna keep running Duncan Robinson, man. He's only went under one game this series at eight and a half. So, get me in for eight and a half. That's going to be the first prop that I like. One of my favorite props on the board, even though it is slightly risky. I believe this is the slip that I ran for that, but I got Duncan Robinson. You can run them on prize picks. You can run them on parlay play. I will say keep a big bankroll in parlay play for a reason. It's one of the apps I like to bet on the most lately. The value's been a little bit worse on parlay play than other apps.

[00:10:01]These slips today are very, very competitive. price picks is a little bit higher on one slip and a little bit lower on the other and as of the recording of this video. So, um, Duncan Robinson I ran here. Code Fantasy Aces on Parlay Play. If you want to try it out, if you sign up, they give you $5 for free. You don't even have to make a deposit. You just sign up with Code Fantasy Aces and then if you guys make a deposit, you get a month of VIP for free. So, just throwing it out there.

[00:10:26]You can do that with any platform in the description. Doesn't have to be Parlay Play, Chalkboard, Sleeper, Underdog, any of those apps give you a free month.

[00:10:33]just let me know. You can stack them.

[00:10:34]You can get up to seven months in a row for free if you sign up for every app.

[00:10:37]Um, but yeah, Parlay Play is the one I'm recommending right now for some of you guys if you don't have it. It's uh a good app to me and I use it all the time. So, Duncan Robinson I ran over there and that is going to be my favorite prop right now from the Pistons side of things. Give me the Pistons to win this game. Second game on the slate, we have the Cavs taking on the Raptors.

[00:10:55]This game is going to be back in Toronto. Toronto plus 155 underdogs.

[00:10:59]Another game with a 350 three and a half spread I mean and a 220 point total. So a pretty high scoring total compared to the other games on the slate. I'm looking at the money right now. 61% on the Raptors, 86% on them getting three and a half points and then 94% on the under on this game total. When you look at these two teams, we are looking at another 32 uh 3-2 series. Right now the Cavs are winning. Um the Cavs can end the series here tonight. Last game was a five-point game in Cleveland. They kept it very close and they didn't have Brandon Ingram after the first first quarter. So, you got to remember that as well. Brandon Ingram tonight is questionable. Emanuel Quickley still missing. Chucky Hburn, it shows, is out.

[00:11:35]And then, uh, or is out, whatever. And then Cleveland pretty much fully healthy. So, Cavs looking good. I I want to take the Cavs tonight. That's kind of the prop that I was leaning. Now, they're minus 160. I don't love that line. Raptors have a I mean, very strong chance of keeping this game very competitive and can easily come out and get a win at home. very strong at home.

[00:11:58]Um I think they won both games at home.

[00:12:03]Yeah, they did. So both games on the series so far they've won at home. So they could potentially tie this series again. Take it to game seven. So we'll see what happens. If Brandon Ingram sits Cavs all day. If Ingram plays, man, you might be able to get some good value here on Toronto at plus money. So we'll see. See, got to wait for the injury news here. I want to say Ingram plays, but he didn't play the last game and it was a very, very competitive game that they could have took in Cleveland and then finished the series in Toronto. So, I don't know the extent of this injury.

[00:12:32]Says right inflammation. Um, let's see.

[00:12:35]Go through pregame warm-ups ahead of Friday's winter go home match before updating his status. So, he's going to have warm-ups. If he's in warm-up, I don't know, dude. I don't know about the the injury news here. I thought Crep Kevin Durant was going to play and he sat the entire series, which we'll talk about that here in a minute.

[00:12:51]As of right now, I'm leaning Cavs, but my mind could change on this one. Give me Cleveland. I'm gonna run with Cleveland in terms of player props for this one. Evan Mobley again. Donovan Mitchell, I don't think is a bad bet, but I like Evan Mobley, man. His P at 24 and a half is just a great line. This is going to be a Goblin play um that I did run. 76% hit rate on the season, 70% hit rate over his last 10 games, and on the series so far, he's catched it four of the five games they've played, averaging well over uh 27 28 P. The dude has been just balling. Had 33 to last game. Um versus Toronto overall. He's catched nine of his last 12. Like Mo's been balling. Um he put up 23 points his last game. Putting up plenty of shot volume.

[00:13:30]You can see 13 field goal attempts pretty much every game except for one in this series so far. He gives us 15 16 points. Then he goes over this line to me. Um because he can give a lot of rebounds and a lot of assists. So I like this match up for Evan Mobley. Think he balls out here tonight trying to end the series. And yeah, I'm going to take him for 24 and a half points. from the Toronto side of things. For me, it's RJ Barrett because if Ingram plays, you never know if he's going to be all the way there. And Barrett has just been stepping it up.

[00:13:58]So, we look at RJ Barrett. I like his P as well. I like his at 30.5 30 and a half lines are line I'm taking. He's cashed three of the five games in the series. 36, 43, and 42 in two of those games. So, his ceiling is there. The two games he went under. He went under by a little bit. One game was 29, so a bucket away from cashing that one. The other game was was four away. So, he's come pretty close in every game. Um, you look at his last 20 games, he has a 50% hit rate, and then on the season, it's a 40%. So, on the season, hasn't come close to this number really, but lately, he's been playing better. 32 EPA average over his last 10 games, he's putting up what um 19 to 20 field goal attempts over the last three in the series. So, he's putting up plenty of shot volume.

[00:14:36]Yes, Scotty Barnes has been balling as well. If you take Scotty Barnes, I wouldn't wouldn't think that's a bad play either. Either one of these guys can take over the game. And um I expect one of them to to have a a very very good game tonight. And I'm leaning RJ. I think RJ just continues this. Um you can look at the matchup here versus power forward. Very very good matchup for a man RJ Barrett. Small forward, not the best. I usually like to average out these. So you're looking at pretty decent matchup overall to the forward position. You look at center position, give up a dec or around middle of the pack. And then to the guards, they it's kind of the same story there. So overall, um you got a decent matchup over here. I think R.J. has a good game.

[00:15:12]30.5 P is the line that I'm going to take. Give me the Cavs here as of right now. And then I'll go ahead and show these slips. We have Duncan Robinson paired with Evan Mobley on the first one. It's 250 to win 475. So if you put 25 bucks on this, you'll win $22.50, which to me, pretty good bang for your buck there on two plays that I really like. And then on the second slip, we have RJ Barrett. And I ran it with Austin Reeds. So we'll talk about Reeds here in a minute. His points line is 23 and a half if you run it regular. I don't think that's a bad bet, but you guys can um can make your own decision on that. I ran it at 19.5 with Barrett because the payout was still a double up. It's a 1.96x or something like that.

[00:15:48]So, still profiting pretty much a double a double up on this slip. $240 profit off $250. $25 wins you $24 profit. So, if you guys want to run those, you can.

[00:15:58]If you don't like these slips, you're more than welcome to fade them. I like both these slips a lot. I'm feeling the sweep today on these NBA free picks, but I will have MLB as well. Hopefully, we can sweep both videos. Talking about game three, Lakers versus Rockets.

[00:16:11]Rockets are favored right now at minus 156. Another game with a three and a half spread, a 206.5 total, so the slowest scoring game on the slate. A very, very low scoring game. 66% of the money going to be on the Rockets with 53% on the Lakers getting three and a half points. Now, when you take a look at these two teams, the Rockets have won back-to-back games. They beat the Lakers in LA and then they won the last game at home. Now, how bad did they beat the Lakers? It was a six-point game. The game before that they beat him by 20 in Houston. They have not had KD.

[00:16:39]I get a little bit worried in spots like this because the Lakers were up three to zero. So, a reverse sweep has never happened. I think a team out of 180 games or something like that, no team has ever come back from a 3-1 like this. So, we'll we'll we'll see what happens. But, um yeah, it's three to two. Hopefully the Lakers can take one of these next two games. As a Lakers fan is is breaking my heart. Donic still missing. They do have AR this game. So Reeves will be playing. Um you look at Houston missing KD. KD doubtful. Fred Van Lee, Steven Adams still out. So we I mean nothing really new here to me guys, KD just give up on his team. Um even there's some some a lot of Rockets fans that I know that has been to the games and even they're saying they feel like KD just gave up. Now, I don't know the extent to his injury, the left ankle sprain. I know you can read here and it says two week minimum injury for Durant, whatever.

[00:17:38]We've seen KD do KD do stuff like this before. He's very emotional. Um, I mean, I get it when you put your heart and soul into the game, but still like to give up on your team in a playoff.

[00:17:48]That's that's kind of what I feel like is happening here. And I hope that's not the case. Maybe the injury is bad enough to where he just can't play. But we'll see, man. He's doubtful tonight. Um, this team needs him. if he was playing the whole series, I feel like the Lakers would have been out of there. I think this Rockets team is better than than they're playing. But regardless, man, I hope the Lakers get that dub tonight.

[00:18:07]Hope they finish him off. I don't trust them enough to play money on them, especially um the thousand slip or anything, but regardless, I'm probably just going to fade this game overall. Now, in terms of taking player props, sure, money lines, I'm a fade. If I had to call it, I'm just going to be a biased Laker fan and say Lakers finish them tonight. We're going with the Lakers at plus 156. But realistically, I don't know that that's going to happen. Um, looking at Austin Reeves, I told you I like his points prop. His prop is 23 and a half. You look at his last 10, he's only catched four of his last 10. Now, you look at his last game, he had 22. He put up 16 field goal attempts. He shot 25%. You look at his headto-head versus the Rockets, very, very bad headto-head at 23 and a half. You drop it down to 19.5, he has three of seven. still not a great hit rate. Volumes just really hasn't been there versus um versus the Lakers.

[00:18:59]Now you got to look at him on the season 54% hit rate. If you take this without Luca, without Donets, six of 11 games has been over and you can see this little stretch here, he really just didn't do much. So lately, he has not been much on the scoring. You look at the first start of the season, Duba dropping 40 and 50 points per game. This is the reason people are are expecting when Donish is out and he just has not been there. Um, you look at his minutes, a lot of these games he's coming off of injuries, so his minutes have been a little bit lower. He's not playing 40 minutes per game like he was. Um, he did play 33 minutes his last game. Expect regular minutes from him here tonight. I think 20 points is just a low line for for a guy with a ceiling like that. I'm not a ceiling like this. I'm not saying he's he's going to cash, but when your ceiling is 50 points per game and we know it can be done and you're putting up shots like that, it's hard not to take it for 20. So, give me Austin Reeds for 20 points. You guys saw on this slip already. I got it locked in. So, that's what I have for this slate, guys. Not really much from the Rocket side I'm looking at right now. Uh, my calls for these games. I'm very unconfident.

[00:19:57]Pistons, uh, Cavs, and then we're going to say the Lakers. So, that's what I got. Um, as of yesterday, nobody called the slate yesterday. Sixers taking us to game seven. Minnesota taking out the Nuggets without their star players. And then, um, obviously the Knicks finishing off the Hawks with a 60point blowout game. So, I mean, nobody saw the whole series like that. Let's be honest.

[00:20:21]Nobody saw a 50-point blowout. Nobody saw that. I mean, somebody maybe got lucky yesterday and called all three games, right? But that is just not what I was expecting. So, um, my confidence on these playoff games is a little bit low right now and calling the money line. So, we'll see what happens. Those are my picks. Lock them in if you like them. Fade them if you don't. And let's go ahead and jump into some MLB in the next video.