Tracking Potential Super El Nino: How Could It Shape Weather Patterns Across The US?

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-11

[00:00:00]Allison, long-time fan and we're so grateful to have you on the show here with us today and we want to do something kind of fun with you. It's called the four-point segment. We haven't done this for a while, but Haley's back, the band is back together.

[00:00:15]We've got four meteorologists here, so we figure what we'll do is we're going to come together to discuss the biggest topics or topic in weather and we've got Allison right below me here joining today. So, we're going to talk about the super El Nino. So, Allison, if you're game for this, all indications are a potentially historic El Nino shaping up and is on the way. And given that, we're going to talk about what maybe our biggest concerns are or what sticks out to us most about this potentially happening as we get later on into the year. First, since Haley's back and I you know, she's kind of the driving force behind the four-point segment, we'll we'll lead off with you, Haley.

[00:00:57]What are you thinking about the super El Nino? You know, I it's so hard to say it's 100% guaranteed that we'll have a super El Nino, but we know an El Nino is definitely in the cards. And one thing that really stuck out to me is the Eastern Pacific. We always have to focus on the EPAC because the warmer waters, especially if we do have that super El Nino, helps to enhance convection. So, a lot of times the EPAC is going to have a very active season. One thing though that maybe folks aren't thinking about, if you're tuning in from let's say Phoenix or out of Southern California, Palm Springs, the moisture from these tropical storms or hurricanes can get wrapped up and then carried into the Southwest, which is a typically fairly dry spot in the country. You think back to 2023, which was also an El Nino year, we had Hurricane Hillary. That was back in August. Hillary was able to dump over 2 inches of rain in Death Valley, which is over their yearly average. So, I know 2 inches sounds like nothing to probably folks in in Houston like Allison, but that's a whole year's worth of rain in one short times period and you know, also in Palm Springs. They had 6 months worth of rain just from Hillary. So the Southwest there's a little bit of drought going on right now, but I definitely think that this monsoon season which kicks off in mid-june through about mid-late September could be one to watch with the super El Nino.

[00:02:16]Well said, what do you think Allison?

[00:02:18]Y'all eat 2 inches of rain for breakfast there in Houston, [laughter] right?

[00:02:22]Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. We saw that last Friday. That was no big deal. I mean, for us being in the Gulf and you know, thinking about the Atlantic side of things, we hear El Nino and it's like, okay, that means increased wind shear.

[00:02:34]I'm like double thumbs up. That helps to tear apart any systems. The problem is we're still seeing very, very warm waters in the Gulf. So I want to take you back to 1983.

[00:02:47]That was when we had also a super El Nino. Well, the problem is yes, there were only four named storms and it's even crazy for me to say that. Four named storms, that's all. Well, guess what? One of them was Hurricane Alicia, which was a category 3 storm, which did make landfall near Galveston and that is very destructive for us here on the coast. So that's something that we are going to be looking out for. Yes, we potentially could be seeing a quiet season, but the waters are still warm.

[00:03:16]Not just in the Atlantic, not just in the Caribbean, but also the Gulf. So we're going to be watching that closely.

[00:03:22]You make great points. You brought up the year 1983 which caught my attention.

[00:03:26]That's my birth year. Michael, we'll kick it over to you. You're similar in age to me, but it looks like you were born in the 90s for crying out loud.

[00:03:33]Thank you [laughter] for that. No, I'm definitely a mid-80s baby. That is for sure. Guys, want to take a trip to a Hawaii with me?

[00:03:39]Let's go. You know, here's the [snorts] problem though when we talk about El Nino. What that is specifically is a warming of the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean. The reason why that's important is because when you have a lot of heat in the Pacific Ocean, that stirs up and drives up a lot of tropical activity. What that could mean is for our friends and family in Hawaii, those warmer waters could mean an increased threat for more tropical showers and thunderstorms, more potential hurricanes that could [snorts] impact all eight of the Hawaiian Islands. Now, it's something that we have to watch very very carefully, Nick, because of the fact that in recent months we've seen a heck of a lot of rain. In the month of March, my goodness, almost 40 in that's over 3 ft of rain in spots. So, we'll see what happens, but Hawaii perhaps might not be paradise with this El Nino set up. Yeah, no doubt. And I'll take it away here. I want to talk about the potential for the impacts of this winter season coming up.

[00:04:41]If we do get a stronger El Nino, as what typically would happen in this pattern is that polar jet then would push north and allow for warmer temps in the northern tier of the United States. And that would also lead to drier conditions across the Ohio Valley and parts of the Midwest. And then that strong Pacific jet would lead to more rain and a wetter pattern along the south. We were talking about it earlier how a lot of the south is in a drought right now. They could use some of the rain. So, you look ahead to the winter time, we could really chip away at some of that drought. Meanwhile, you get into the northeast, it was a pretty rough winter, a lot of snow for the east coast. And it looks like this year, if all plays out like we're expecting, we could see less snow. The west could get more in the way of moisture, and that's exactly what they need out there. So, that's look at our four-point segment. Allison, you're a natural. You should fit right in. Thank you. And listen, Allison, thank you so much for coming to hang out with us.

[00:05:41]You're welcome not just on this segment, but any segment. And please give give Chloe a big nice warm Mother's Day hug from Nick, from Haley, and from myself. And happy Mother's Day to you, Allison. Love you guys. Have a good one.

[00:05:58]>> Thanks, you too. We appreciate it.