July 17, 2026: Smoke/Flooding/Heat | Hot August?? | Is It Too Early To Talk About 2027?

[00:00:00]Well, good morning everybody. It is Friday, July 17th. And I want to start off today's video by kind of focusing on the three big things kind of happening across the country. Uh the ridge and the heat. We're going to talk about the smoke that's coming out of the the wildfires just north of the Boundary Waters here. And then I want to get into what's going on and kind of some of the big drivers in the Texas flooding. We're going to push that out to a longer range forecast. I've got brand new data from the Climate Prediction Center. I want to give you some analog years that I think might be applicable even into 2027. So, we're going to cover a lot today uh in this forecast video. But, as the sun rose this morning, we can still see extensive wildfire smoke that [clears throat] extends, you know, way out into the Atlantic Ocean. And there's just a lot of news coverage and discussion about this over the last 48 hours. And I wanted to show you a couple of things about this smoke. So, this was yesterday as the sun was setting. A lot of this smoke was very close to the ground, degrading air quality to some of the lowest levels that we've seen. I will mention that we can see on the periphery of this, sorry, I just got a new image there. Let's go back to yesterday on the periphery, the southern edge of this smoke, we did see quite a bit of connection, bigger storms that kind of popped up here uh in parts of Wisconsin and Illinois and also on the back side of this coming into this kind of the border here between North Dakota and Manitoba. And these storms were critical because these were the ones that overnight have moved through this area bringing in some much needed relief. So, let's just start with smoke today. All right, I wanted to show you just a tool. If you want it, go out and play with it. It's just aweather.com/smoke.

[00:01:26]And what you can do here across the United States and and into Canada as well is you can drop a pin. I've dropped one here just north of the boundary waters, which by the way, this is important to understand. I was getting asked a lot of questions like, why can't we fight these fires? If you don't know about the the geography of this area, it is it's just lakes everywhere. There's not a lot of people that live in this particular region where these fires are.

[00:01:49]And so fighting them is very difficult.

[00:01:50]In fact, if I mean I know I have friends, colleagues that have gone on fishing trips here that the only way you can get in is to come in via like an airplane that lands on the water. And so this is where we are. Uh thing about this website aweather.com/smoke.

[00:02:05]It'll actually give you a calendar view of uh the the um Noah's prediction, not Noah's prediction, Noah's observations here of the smoke. So you got a calendar view. And then if you look at any of the historical years, which I think I take this back to 2021, you can even get the nearest weather station monitor looking at particular matter at 2.5 microns.

[00:02:25]It'll give you a historical uh date on that. But they look over the last couple of days just how low the um amount of daily insulation that sunlight getting down to the surface has been in this area. In fact, this whole region is in deficit on the year for daily insulation or sunlight again reaching the surface.

[00:02:41]But I want to talk about a couple of other things here. So, let's go back and just have a look at why the smoke was able to get all the way down to the ground and stay there across Wisconsin, Michigan, even all the way over here into uh I mean, as far as New York City is is where we saw this and the reason has to do with this big upper level ridge and upper level ridges um produce a lot of suppression in the atmosphere.

[00:03:03]They get very hot near the surface and as a result the um the temperature gradient starting from the surface going up is is weak. We call that a lapse rate. Now, the lapse rate in Gaylord, Michigan, which is this star here, where they launched a weather balloon last night. I just want to show you this.

[00:03:20]When you look at at what these lapse rates, you know, are we're talking about, you know, something around 6° Celsius per kilometer. Now, that number probably doesn't make a lot of sense to a lot of folks, but that's almost the moist to adiabatic lapse rate. You're going, "All right, what the heck are we?" What we want if you'd like to get convection, mix that smoke out, bring in stronger winds, is you want the temperature change to be much greater, almost up to 10 degrees Celsius per kilometer. In fact, if you get to that, you're what we call dry adiabatic and you'll get storms to just explode in that environment. So, it's how quickly the temperatures change as you go up in the atmosphere is a major determining factor. In fact, it is the determining factor as long as you have moisture as to whether or not you're going to get storms or not. something to trigger the air to rise into a destabilized atmosphere is all about the destabilization is all about the rate at which the temperature changes as you go up. I mean if you want to make a big you know watch this big huge storms like this got to be hot near the surface and cold aloft. So we weren't getting that in here. The lapse rates were too stable. They were they were too slow.

[00:04:26]But on the periphery where we had some good sunlight and heating we got it. and uh some of the big storms that kind of went through here that were more farther to the south in the middle of this ridge down in Missouri and Illinois and Indiana. And then we were watching as a sunset a large complex of storms that left parts of North Dakota and moved through this in the overnight hours.

[00:04:46]Here's one other thing to think about.

[00:04:47]Um when I mentioned that the destabilization yesterday, late yesterday morning, do you see how hot this area was while this whole region was considerably cooler? So, you can see that the cloud cover that was in this area, excuse me, the smoke cover, not the cloud cover, [snorts] uh, you know, kept the the temperatures down. I mean, this is all sitting inside the same big ridge, but the smoke really suppressed those temperatures and didn't allow the atmosphere to overturn. I That's what we're watching here. There is something, and I got asked this earlier in the week by a friend and colleague about Lake Michigan. I do not know why. Right now, I've got to look at this over the weekend. Lake Michigan shown up very very excuse me get my legs right. Lake Superior is shown up very very cold uh in the middle of the summer compared to historical averages. And there's a story going on there and I just don't know what it is yet. I've been focusing on too many other things this week. But I just wanted to bring that to your attention with respect to these uh the storms, the smoke, the destabilization or the lack of it in the atmosphere. And let's go from there to talk about the next big threat we've we've been dealing with. And this is a radar animation that just goes back from late yesterday afternoon all the way through early this morning and the pattern that has set up to deliver this. Okay, there's your large ridge. All right, so that's what's driving all of these monsunal storms, some of which have been producing locally heavy rain, a tremendous amount of lightning. The storms are running around the edge, some popup isolated storms in the interior of the ridge, but to the south and parts of Texas, we've had multiple days of just non-stop, you know, rain. And I'm sure you've seen a lot about this in the news. Thankfully, uh the the the way that people have been alerted to this and paying attention to this after last year's tragedy on July the 3rd and 4th in the Hill Country of Texas, this has been just very well paid attention to and people are are are taking actions to stay safe. But I wanted just to show you why what's going on here. We've watched the the flow of the atmosphere look some version of this for most of this last week. We've got the Bermuda high sitting here and it has got strong winds to the south and as I mentioned on Wednesday, this is a key contributing factor to keeping the wind shear up in the Caribbean, the main development region and into the Gulf, which is going to be a key factor later in understanding the ability for tropical cyclones to develop. We've not had that problem over here where we have, you know, a big tropical cycle and a big hurricane that's forming. But I want to focus on this high pressure that's sat here over like New Orleans for weeks. Uh this is this has been trying to set up and the flow has been coming through bringing in very moisture laden air high precipit water content air you know right into this part of Texas loading it with just with moisture lots and lots and lots of moisture. You then step up in the atmosphere and okay there's our big ridge we've been talking about. Go even higher. This is all the way up to the jetream level. You can even see there's a weak upper level low here. So there's surface flow like this.

[00:07:42]Upper level flow like this. and it's concentrating all of that rising motion in one spot and it has nowhere to go.

[00:07:48]There's no reason for it to move because the main piece of the flow is so far north into Canada and as a result it sat there and just spun for for several days and this is what's created this massive flooding problem that we're continuing to deal with. I mean this is just the last 72 hours, the last three days. If we come down here into Texas with our MRMS Pro tool, I mean you can see here you west of San Antonio. I mean, there's Uvalde from from a year ago's tragic um flooding. And this whole region just in the last three days alone is is is 18 to 25 in. The week-long total in this region is is over 30 in in some places.

[00:08:27]And we're not done with the rainfall just yet. You can see the widespread flood watches out in place. The flood warnings that are here at each one of these rivers where the storms continue to sit. We do have the flood warnings out as well. This is going to continue uh to be a problem. Any small amount of rain is going to continue to trigger flooding. Outside of that, we've got our air quality issues and we've got the heat advisories that are here. We have the excessive uh heat issues that may be moving into the northwest possibly making these red flag warnings more problematic as we go forward. So there's just a lot on our plate right now trying to watch how the atmosphere around this ridge has generated these severe weather threats. Not in the terms of storms, but in terms of flooding, in terms of air quality. There's other ways to get severe weather here. But speaking of severe weather, here's your next three days. All right, you can find the ridge and there's the ridge running storms.

[00:09:21]That's today. Tomorrow, we're going to keep a close eye because in the northern side of this, this low is going to show up, go right over the fires, run through here, and drag a front. And that's why we've got a pretty large area stretching from right about where I live here in Illinois all the way to the east coast, parts of the mid-Atlantic, eastern Great Lakes with the risk of severe storms.

[00:09:40]And we're going to see these settle into the Carolas as we get into the day on Sunday. Now, to show you the near-term, this is the next 48 hours from the um high resolution rapid refresh. That's the complex of storms that was born out of what happened yesterday afternoon here. So, they're going right over the top. You continue to see the forecast of the rain farther to the south here and just playing through the middle of the day. You know, this gets us to 6:00 p.m.

[00:10:05]Watch for isolated storms in here inside the ridge. All of this is monsunally driven around the ridge, predicting where these storms will be from like the Snake River Valley into Montana. It's going to be a now event, but watch as this broader low develops here. And thankfully, there's a reduction by this evening in the amount and coverage of the storms in this part of Texas. But as we go forward, there it is. See this low spinning up. We're going to see that low move through storms into parts of Montana. And by the time we get into Saturday, there it is.

[00:10:37]There's a front that shows up. And that front is also going to be a part of a cool down that much of the Midwest, upper Midwest is going to be seeing here going into early next week. Now, as we get into the day on Saturday, this is where we have this whole region through here that needs to be aware of the risk of strong to severe storms. Our monsoon is still cranking. Isolated storms to the south of it. That's just that's just where we are. This is where this pattern has been living. Now, the question is, will this front be able to clear out that smoke? Well, I'm going to see if they've got any new data in. Oh, good.

[00:11:07]They got the 6Z running. So, the 6Z run Oh, whoops. I went to 8Z, didn't I? Ah, they went from five to 8Z. Darn it. They didn't do a 6Z run this morning. The reason I say darn it is because the 60 run like I just showed you with the her here is a 48 hour run. All the other runs are 12 hours. And so when I look at this, I can only take you out on the smoke forecast just a little ways. In fact, the full 8Z run is even in all the way. So let's go back to 5Z. There we go. So we're not going to capture that front yet. This isn't going out far enough in time. Uh it's like right here as the end of this animation goes through. So we'll have to wait later in the day to see if we get better uh maps for smoke as this uh as this moves through. All right, so that's a just a quick u you know hit on two of those events. The third one we got to talk about is the heat. If you just want to see what the last week has brought. So this is the 9th of July through the 16th. All right, where we've had the cloud cover and rain. We are cool. Uh all around it here though very very hot.

[00:12:10]And if you compare the 9th through the 16th to every other July 9th through 16th going back to 1893, this is ranking as either the warmest or at least a top five warmest in this particular corridor. And we've been thinking a lot about what that heat is doing in terms of the accumulation of stress degree days. Again, just the unit here adding up degrees over 86 each day. Now, just reiterate what I talked about earlier in the week. when you start to see these numbers get above 140 and you're growing corn in the Midwest. We historically see yield loss increasing past 140 these units. So you can see de mo is atund you know five Kansas City 130 and you get up here farther into the western cornbelt and these these numbers are growing.

[00:12:56]Anomalously de mo's 28 above where they historically are on the average and you're going why aren't you talking about here or here? Well, this this stress degree day number I gave you applies to the Midwest. Now, you can use it anywhere you want. We've talked about the heat in Florida, up the Mid-Atlantic, through the southeast end of the Mid-Atlantic, and then what's been happening down here in Texas, uh, the panhandle area. Uh, thank goodness there were some storms in this region the other day, and how hot it is in the southwest. But it's a great metric to also see that the West has not seen excessive long duration events of heat this year. But just to give you that corn heat stress threshold, again, we've watched all week as these numbers continue to climb and you're going to just want to keep an eye on the expansiveness of where we switch over on that hard black contour to um you know to to these colors representing over 140. Just again to reiterate, this number doesn't matter down here farther to the south. This 140 threshold, it's primarily a primary cornbelt threshold we just want to be paying close attention to. All right. Okay, temperatures. Let's blow that up a little bit. This is today's highs, and we know that there's a front that's going to try to come through later this weekend. So, that Saturday into Sunday, it's sweeps through, dropping these temperatures off a little bit. But, there's another surge of heat on Sunday coming on the back side of this, which means we're going to continue to add up a lot of these stress degree days here.

[00:14:20]And as we go from Sunday into Monday and Tuesday, that's when the first significant shift over to cooler weather happens. while heat is pressed farther to the south. I mean, I've got Little Rock at 101 and Norman at 102. And we also start to see some hot temperatures invading parts of the Pacific Northwest, which has been a concern getting out here to this point in July. So, the cooler weather lasts into Wednesday and Thursday. I mean, temperatures where I live back in the low 80s, upper 70s.

[00:14:47]That's going to be about a 25 degree drop over where we are right now. But, there's been commentary. I showed it to you on and Matt talked about it like we think there's a bit of a cadence to the position and strength of this ridge and it's starting to show up again here when we compare the European on the left to the GFS on the right. So get yourself oriented. There's the US in both maps.

[00:15:07]And what's going on here is that this ridge, this is through Sunday into Monday. Look, that's the trough that brings the bigger front through. Okay, it's in both models, smashing the ridge farther to the west, which you can see here, and allowing it to open up to the heat early next week into the Pacific Northwest. But the farther we go in this forecast, the ridge continues to rebuild and regain its position kind of somewhere in the mix between the four corners and the southern plains. And if it does that, okay, watch this next one reopen. It means that we're going to go through waves of heat. And this next one's likely coming in at the end of the month of July. So, we kind of talked about that like it's it's it's seven or eight days of heat, then a break, and then another buildup of heat. And I think a lot of this is anchored in the central part of the United States. And some of the models are now finally picking up on that well when you look out there at the end of the month. So, here's the next 5 days. Remember, our front is coming through. So, you'll start to see that cooling off as I lop off the next three days and add on three days later. So that's the cool down while the heat goes to the west and northwest. And then take a look as you get out there toward the end of the month. Both models are regaining the position of that ridge more toward the central states and building in heat. I think that's going to be a common theme.

[00:16:23]I think the GFS extended picking up on it better than the European. So this is our next week, right? There's the cool down we talked about coming through. And then watch as we get out there to the start of uh August, the heat regaining position in the midsection of the country and likely becoming firmly planted here for again another 8 to 10 day stretch before there's a break in that heat as well. So we are pressing our way toward a hotter finish to July and start of August. But as we've seen the heat waves have they don't last for 30 or 40 straight days. There's breaks in these and that's sometimes something that the models don't fully pick up on.

[00:17:04]All right, I'm I'm I know I'm focusing a lot on the middle part of the country, but that's where we've seen the these highly impactful swings in the pattern that have set up the rest of the country from the west coast to the east coast.

[00:17:17]All right. Um, back to some more on precipitation. I do want to point out that over the last well since July began, the European model skill scores have been significantly better than the GFS. So, when we're comparing these models, I have the GFS on the right and the European on the left. In terms of picking up on the pattern, the Euro's been better. Now, I've got this zoomed way out because I want you to see two things. This is the Pacific high here, and there's the Bermuda high. It's showing up there, and it's in both models, Bermuda High, Pacific High. And as I play this forward, what I was interested in seeing is where the models were tossing in the uh the storms. If you just kind of play it back and forth fast, this is from, you know, this Friday to next Friday, you can still see the influence of that ridge and where the models are attempting to create the ridge writing storms. What is fascinating though is because of the presence of that high, this tropical system I showed you a moment ago, this big guy right here, it's in both models, it is trying to go almost straight north. Now, there is no indication that this is going to curl into like San Francisco. I'm talking about this. Okay, but it that's a that tells you where the big ridge is off in the Pacific.

[00:18:35]Normally we get these systems going straight this direction or a little bit toward the north and west. But because this high pressure is not settled over the western United States and high pressure instead is in the middle part of the country. H it's just going right between the two. Now let's flip over from there to just looking at total precipitation because this has been an interesting shift over the last couple of days. Uh this is your next five days.

[00:18:58]Now we could as the front comes through get storms here. We are still watching for weak weak low pressure development there. And we see that there are still more uh storms running up through this part of the west which we've been predicting this active southwest monsoon. As Matt pointed out, if you're looking for ridge running storms, they're pretty far to the north in the near term. Now, if we lop off the next five days and keep adding more, this is where we've been watching these models really bounce every single day. This is about a 10-day forecast. And I've seen the models attempt to put down storms in this area. But have a look at this. This is the most recent run. This is the run before it. See that? Look at it again.

[00:19:43]Most recent run.

[00:19:46]Watch right in through here. Run before it.

[00:19:50]What about the run before that? You see, these models have been trying to develop this region of ridgger running storms that come through the Midwest where we've been talking about the accumulation of heat, the flash drought scenario all week long. And the newest runs, uh, they they've lpped that off.

[00:20:07]They've made it they've shrunk it. So, what do what do we see out of this pattern? Like, what what do you deduce from it? Well, let's look at the ensembles first and look at the next seven days. Who's wetter versus who's drier? So that's a big area that stretches all the way from, you know, southern Canada through the Midwest all the way down the Mississippi Valley. In both models, it's drier and it's wet on either side.

[00:20:30]All right, we just keep going out there, you know, let's go all the way out there to the end of it. This is the last full week of the month of July. I mean, previous runs, it won't show you all of it. Boy, they were they were more stormy in this region. Let's go to the 12Z.

[00:20:45]They were trying to bring in better storms. I'm just going back over old model runs. It's like when I talked to you on Wednesday like yeah we're like hey look storms are opening up in there and the newest you know forecasts there's just not there's more of a risk because of the rebuilding of the ridge of keeping this region I think drier and I'm I'm beginning to get quite concerned about it uh because one we're not seeing it in the ensembles um the operational runs have now shrunk this corridor through which they were trying to bring storms and now look I've got more of Iowa and Illinois and Missouri showing up to our Minnesota Wisconsin. Heavier rains coming into parts of the mids south and into the southeast and up the mid-Atlantic. Active southwest monsoon still going, but this area is getting riskier to be drier as well. And then the uh you know the the probability numbers also kind of scream the same thing. That's the chance of staying under a half inch for the next 10 days.

[00:21:39]And even as I take it out further, you know, this isn't really shrinking or changing the shape of that region as the ridge develops.

[00:21:48]So, I think that's there's a lot of evidence there and I think the models can't shake it because when you look out there for the full month of of August, this is the newest update from the European model. Does it look any different? I mean, that that seems to be the way that things are settling. So, what what do we need to know and understand? Well, one, we got to figure out the position of this ridge every single day. Wake up and watch its movement. Two, see where the moisture regains position versus where it doesn't. We have to pay attention to humidity levels. Both specific humidity, which is the absolute measure of moisture in the atmosphere, and relative humidity, which is relative to the temperature. Okay. And I think the third thing is, is there something that can come along and kick this pattern out that the models aren't finding yet?

[00:22:31]Maybe something tropical, maybe it's a move in the MJO, I don't know, something like that. But I did find it a bit interesting that in light of all of this, the newest outlook for the month of August came in from the eur uh excuse me from the climate prediction center looking like this yesterday.

[00:22:49]And I you know it is not in agreement with where we are with some of our models, right? which you we we we saw cooler here, more heat all in this area, and then we saw storms there, drier risk here, actually dry risk all the way down here and wetter. So, the CPC's newest forecast has got for the month of August does not quite fit what we right now see with the ridges regaining position, if that makes sense.

[00:23:24]So, I don't know. I'm just going to watch it with them that they're doing the same thing that I'm doing. They're trying to figure out where this pattern goes. And I have a feeling they're banking a lot of this on the fact that we have got like the MJO living way out here in the Pacific Ocean. And uh you know, the zonal winds just screaming for this level. Bring up here. Pull up here.

[00:23:46]The screaming El Nino. All right. You can't see it for some reason. It's taking its deer. There it is. Look at all that big strong westerly wind burst just continuing to push this El Nino.

[00:23:57]So here's what I want to do. I want to I want to examine a couple of things here.

[00:24:03]Look at some of the other forecast models and then we'll come back to the climb prediction center. So the first thing uh August to October. All right.

[00:24:10]This is the latest update from the European model on the top and on the bottom the NME and I just highlighted it. I put this in my report earlier this week. Few things to point out here. I think the later we go in the season past August, the more we get stronger subtropical flow and this will likely result in more widespread precipitation.

[00:24:31]Unless I think the Pacific Northwest and maybe the Great Lakes states could be on the drier side of average. We continue to mount evidence that it's going to be a suppressed Atlantic hurricane season.

[00:24:41]Doesn't mean no hurricanes, just suppressed. Okay, probably 75% of normal when you think about it in terms of percentages. We've talked at length about other spots around the world, so I'm not going to go over that again. But a lot of this is based upon the fact that we are now well into a strong El Nino scenario above 2° C. There's still plenty of warm water that's going to be surfacing over the next 3 to 6 months. I think the trickiest part of this forecast, and we've just hammered on it, is this odd behavior of these two cooler spots while there's massive marine heat waves happening to the south of each of them and even to the west of this one.

[00:25:18]And that has what's been stealing momentum from the pattern in the northern hemisphere, which we've talked at length about, and giving it to the southern hemisphere. You saw that earlier in the week, right? Just the strong flow going into Chile causing that flooding. Now, as I as I just look over this and and think it through, you know, there is still too much cool water here with this Pacific to Kal oscillation signal that just says, hey, watch out for more ridging in the midsection of the country.

[00:25:45]And we can exhaust our moisture pretty quickly that we have built up from June, for example, with all the heavy rains we saw.

[00:25:52]But with that in context, let's now go look out there a bit farther. October, November, December.

[00:25:59]And globally, I think we're going to have some wet harvests in places. I've identified here. I will be watching carefully this the fact that as we get into the heart of the planting season in in South America, specifically Brazil, we've got a lot of models that are suggesting drier north, wet or south. And you're going, why is that a delay? Well, they're waiting on rains here to get planted. They got to have at least two inches to get everything going, get the soil right. To the south, the rain is more like we can you can kind of think of this more like mid latitude rain. You have too much soil types are different.

[00:26:34]We just can't get into the fields. And as a result, I think we could watch for some for some significant planting delays. Now, as I mentioned, I I I have a couple other pieces to this I want to show you. Let's now go look at the new IRI multimodel probability forecast. So, this was just released as well yesterday. This is their prediction for August to September on global precipitation. So just kind of just get a good snapshot of this. And then we go out there to September, October, November. Look how wet this becomes and how we start to split this up. Still weaker monsoon, potential for flooding in the Middle East. We can see, you know, issues here with drought continuing. This is now the October, November, December outlook.

[00:27:17]Look at that.

[00:27:19]And this would be the November, December, January.

[00:27:24]Now, this is going to be very interesting to watch. Now, if you're curious why it looks like this, I went out and I made a couple of graphics. I went and said, "All right, we know we have a big Elino coming. Let's go use all of those strong Elnos from the past and let's go ahead and try to predict 2027. Why not?" So, the years that I'm going to choose uh are years where there's an El Nino that peaks uh greater than one and a half on the Ocean Nino index, which this one's definitely going to do. And uh we're going to go look at January, February, March, March, April, May, and May, June, July. Now, this is precipitation only. So, this winter, we're worried about drier northwest, drier, Ohio Valley. Very wet southern tier of the United States and central plains. That's winter. You then get into March, April, May. See the pattern here?

[00:28:11]A little drier risk north, but more of this filling in in spring. And then May, June, July, those years tend to produce a lot of drought in the southeast.

[00:28:22]Very wet Midwest. Drought southeast.

[00:28:26]Now, internationally, if we, you know, take a look at this bigger, like there you go. January, February, March, March, April, May. Now, this is going to be critical. If South America the soybean crop goes in late and then comes out late and in March, April, May, we're very wet in southern Brazil, drier northern Brazil, that could have an impact on safrina crops as well. Maybe even harvesting them as you get out there to May, June, July next year. But these are just simply using big Eli new years. And what happened the next year in terms of precipitation?

[00:29:07]I don't know. I think it's kind of an interesting way to look at all of this, but let's finish up by seeing what the Climate Prediction Center says. So, we're going to come back here, click on the three-month outlook, and now it's going to take us out here. So, let's go look at temperatures first. Again, I don't see how this happens. I I think we're going to keep more heat in the midsection of the country than what they've currently got here. Uh, let's look at the same time period for precipitation.

[00:29:32]I mean, you can see what they're trying to do. They're trying to bridge this gap. Now, I've said that, you've heard me say that. I think that could happen.

[00:29:37]They're drier here and drier on this side. But I'm I'm I'm now becoming more skeptical of my own thought process in this. Uh that is August, September, October. Let's go September, October, November.

[00:29:50]Uh let's stay on preip and go October, November, December. Classic El Nino for late uh you know, late fall into early winter. November, December, January.

[00:29:59]Yeah, there it is. They're going to say if you're south of that line, you're wet. Risk a drier here and drier there.

[00:30:05]That's That's a good I think that's a solid forecast given what this El Nino is going to do. And I bet you they show a temperature pattern. I've not yet looked at it. That is warmer than average here and cooler than average there. Let's go see it. There you go.

[00:30:17]Warmer and cooler. That's classic El Nino signal.

[00:30:22]So that's November, December, January.

[00:30:23]Let's go December, January, February, the heart of winter. And even out there farther, February, let's go all the way to February, March, April.

[00:30:34]Now, I was looking out here next spring. How about March, April, May? Ah, they don't have a signal.

[00:30:41]They're wetter south. What was I seeing for March, April, May? Yeah, wetter. Did they also see this dryness in May, June, July? Do they go out that far? [snorts] Yeah, they do.

[00:30:53]Oh, very interesting. They picked up on the same kind of analog signal as I did.

[00:30:58]No, wait, that's the opposite. Forgive me. They've got wet May, June, July down here. And I have got dry.

[00:31:07]Okay. So, there's a lot of differences.

[00:31:09]Uh that's what happens when you see me look at this stuff live. I didn't get a chance to really uh look at it too in depth this morning. Okay. We've got our work cut out for us to continue to monitor these things. Um we'll watch it carefully over the weekend. If you want, I'm just going to encourage you go to aweather.com and this this part of the website is free. Click on weather models. Click on the pro viewer. And then switch this over to the ensemble, European ensemble. I'm just going to tell you, go watch this uh this ridge placement. That's what I think is going to be key is where is that ridge right there? Let's go out there nine days from now on the 26th and see if it's really here. And if it is, are there bridge riding storms or not? That's what we're going to have to pay attention to. Okay.

[00:31:52]Okay. That's it everybody. Have a good weekend. Be safe this weekend. and I'll talk to you Monday. Thanks.