Separatists trying to link Carney to Trudeau: analyst | Alberta Primetime for May 28, 2026

追加: 2026-05-31

[00:00:02]Alberta Prime Time with Michael Higgins.

[00:00:04][music] >> Welcome to Alberta Prime Time. Ahead tonight, our politics panel on dialogue around separation within the United Conservative Party. But first, weighing the pitch for independence.

[00:00:17]>> This is not something that results in increased prosperity for Albertans. And anybody who's trying to tell them that that's the case is lying. uh business community reaction to building debate over a question on secession being added to the October referendum. According to the Calgary Chamber, even the prospect of separation uncertainty causes people to leave and compromises investment, economic growth and productivity.

[00:00:43]Joining us now, Keith Wilson, a constitutional lawyer and advocate for independence, also founder of the Alberta Transition Council. Mr. Wilson, welcome back to Alberta Prime Time, sir.

[00:00:54]Uh, thanks for having me on.

[00:00:56]>> Okay, we just heard the clip of Deborah Yedlin off the top and she had much to say in our conversation about why the Calgary Chamber is deeply concerned by the prospect of separation, notably that the referendum will trigger significant and lasting economic consequences as as a starting point. How do you respond to that perspective?

[00:01:17]Well, I recognize that she's advocating a political position and she's wrong to suggest that um when you look at the situation that we're in in Alberta and in Canada, uh that a move towards independence and having decisions and laws and policies passed in Edmonton instead of Ottawa will scare business away. And the evidence of that is pretty clear. uh you if you look at the report from uh the Royal Bank of Canada that was released less than a month ago, it found that over a trillion dollars in investment has left Canada and and most of that being investment that would have occurred in Alberta because of the uncertainty that's been created by the laws in Ottawa. There's no prospect for us to change those laws. These are laws that are anti-development. They increase the cost of business. They create so much uncertainty that the uh that corporations and companies decide to invest elsewhere including the United States and around the world but not here. And the fact of the matter is there's a legal pathway to independence where the decision-m and lawmaking would shift from Ottawa to Alberta and we can create an environment of certainty and I think the greater challenge we'll have is the amount of investment that will want to flow here because we have the third largest reserve of oil in the world. We have a young uh entrepreneurial, hardworking workforce and we have a diversified economy.

[00:02:42]>> You're a Kings Council lawyer. We we've spoken with you before on on property rights cases among others. Why why do you believe personally believe Alberta would be better off as an independent country?

[00:02:56]Uh well, I I do so because I'm also a dad and um uh and I'm an Albertan and a a family person and a member of my community. And when I look at the direction unfortunately that Canada's on and how dramatically Canada has changed uh under under the governments in Ottawa over the last 11 years that I'm very concerned about the future for my children with the cost of living the future for grandchildren um with the increasingly restrictive laws from Ottawa there their shift to authoritarian type tendencies with censorship and other laws and um it's absolutely clear to me when I look at the the wealth and the the wealth of resources and and entrepreneurial spirit and hardworking Albertans that my kids will have a far better future a far better future in an independent Alberta and then I put my lawyer's cap on. So that's checks the dad dad box. Um uh I put my lawyer's cap on and Canada is a unique country. There's no other developed country that that has a constitutional pathway for a province or a state to legally leave and we do in Canada. The Supreme Court of Canada said if a clear majority of Albertans uh vote on a clear question, then we have the right to negotiate a new relationship with Canada, we'll still be neighbors to Canada, uh but we'll be able to govern ourselves and determine our relationship with the rest of Canada instead of having it imposed upon us.

[00:04:21]>> Okay. So, that that that brings us to what we mentioned earlier, the the Alberta Transition Council. What what do you bring to the table with that?

[00:04:30]Well, it's, you know, uh, anybody who's thinking about independence and, you know, what they should vote in the upcoming referendum in October, you know, should we stay or should the the Alberta government formally commence a vote? Um, has many questions that are currently unanswered. you know, um how are we going to provide continuity of service of of of uh border services at the airport and at the at the um at the borders? Uh what is the monetary policy going to be? How are we going to transition the pensions from the Canada pension plan to Alberta? How are we going to maintain aviation services? So, I've brought together a group of experts in all of those fields, telecommunications, military, international trade, monetary policy, and we're currently working on a white paper that we'll be releasing later in July that will detail how the transition can occur. Not advocating for it or against it, just saying if Albertans vote for independence, what does the transition look like? How do we ensure continuity of service? How do we ensure investor confidence? How do we uh smoothly transition from Alberta being a province, a colony controlled by Ottawa uh to uh an independent country uh with with Canada as our neighbors instead of our controllers.

[00:05:49]>> Pent up anger and frustration have have fueled momentum for separation which the Smith government has acknowledged by by triggering this separation referendum question. on on the other side of the coin, there are Albertans who are angry, even fearful of of the province being thrust into this situation. How do you address that perspective?

[00:06:11]Well, I'm I'm very sympathetic to it.

[00:06:14]But what I would encourage those people to do is to have an honest, openeyed assessment of the trajectory of Canada.

[00:06:24]We have record debt. you know, the uh Trudeau and Carney Liberals have accumulated more government debt, you know, and that's the credit card, the taxpayers credit card they're racking up uh than all of the previous governments combined. Um the the the debt servicing alone is projected to hit $80 billion.

[00:06:46]We have inflation. We have the lowest growth rate in G the G20 countries.

[00:06:51]Canada's in bad shape and we're seeing affordability crisis. you know, my kids' friends aren't able to buy homes in in their in their their their late 20s and early 30s. Kids aren't having children because of the cost of living. Uh we have uh when the cost of living goes up and when inflation goes up because of government policy, we work as hard as we did tomorrow as we did yesterday, but our money is worth less. So, uh, I think people should really look at the authoritarian tendencies that we're seeing from some of the laws in Ottawa and say, you know, is this really So, what scares me more is Alberta staying in Canada and watching this continual degradation of what Canada once was and the affordability crisis and there's no sign that the Carne Liberals are going to change course. Um, Alberta has incredibly blessed with resources. We have more than what it needs to be a country. There's been 41 countries come into existence since 1990. Uh new countries and creation of new countries is a normal relatively normal thing on the planet earth. And uh we have a legal pathway. We have the skills. We have the infrastructure. I think Albertans can do this. And when people look at it, I'm hopeful they'll realize the right choice for their children and their grandchildren is to support independence.

[00:08:07]>> All right, we'll have to leave it there for time. Appreciate your time this evening, Mr. Wilson. Thank you.

[00:08:12]Thanks for having me on.

[00:08:14]>> That's Keith Wilson, constitutional lawyer, advocate for independence, and founder of the Alberta Transition Council.

[00:08:33]From the voice of separatists in the independence debate to where the UCP stands on Alberta remaining in Canada.

[00:08:40]Time now for tonight's politics panel.

[00:08:43]And joining us this evening, Dwayne Brat, political scientist at Mount Royal University and political analyst John Santos. Good evening to you both. And let's begin with the uh the taking of sides within the separation debate. We heard from lawyer and independence advocate Keith Wilson off of the top.

[00:09:00]Dwayne, he uh he faced off against former Premier Jason Kenny in in a couple of recent organized debates over the independence push. What is to be made of the voice Keith Wilson brings to this dialogue?

[00:09:14]>> It it's a more rational and and reasonable voice than some of the other uh separatist leaders like Mitch Sylvester or Jeff Wrath. Well, the message is the same that Alberta would be better off outside of Canada, that Canada is in decline, that Canada is moving towards an authoritarian regime.

[00:09:34]Those are all similar to Wrath and to Sylvester, but he doesn't get into, you know, that Carney is a secret Chinese agent. Um, you know, and and chemtrails and and the Emergencies Act and and things like that. So, you know, he makes the case in a more reasonable, logical fashion that you would expect from uh from a lawyer.

[00:09:56]>> John, we we touched on his transition council. So, how challenged will he be to bring an argument to the table that can be backed with credible facts and explanations that will cause opponents of separation to actually sit up and take notice?

[00:10:12]The issue with debating the, you know, policy and economic details of the separation debate is that it's quite complex. Um, and I mean we see organizations forming on the federalist side trying to present um, you know, the the policy and economic arguments for staying in Canada as well. And I think the average citizen is just having is going to have a lot of difficulty following those things because um, they rely on a lot of models and comparisons with places. And of course, all of this is a big hypothetical. And so, you know, I I think it's good. I think it's important to have a policy based debate that, as Dwayne said, is is quite rational. Um, but by the same token, I think I'm not sure how many people are going to be persuaded by facts on either side. I think a lot of people are going to be uh choosing how they vote based on um emotional decisions and then and then finding the facts that just rationalize after the fact um a position they've already taken for emotional reasons.

[00:11:12]>> Dwayne, having heard Keith Wilson, how how organized and effective do you see the pro-searation side being overall in in the leadup to the referendum?

[00:11:22]I >> I think there are divides with the pro-searation uh movement. Um we we've actually got, you know, threats of lawsuits going back and forth between different people. We have the whole issue of the uh breach of the voters database. Uh that has caused uh issues there. Um I think it's important to put these into a policy document, but the Alberta Prosperity Project did that with what they called the value of freedom, and there were huge massive errors in there. Double counting of of pension revenue. uh greatly inflating uh economic growth, minimizing uh transition costs um that the the economic case didn't um stand up to to scrutiny. I'd like to know who is in this transition council um and to see what sort of arguments that they they come up with. Uh, I do want to emphasize though something that that I thought was a theme throughout Wilson's talk and that was, you know, just Canada is authoritarian, Canada is in decline and he focuses only on the last 11 years really and and more aiming at Trudeau when he says that Carney has done nothing. That ignores the creation of the major projects office that ignores theou with the Smith government. that ignores trade relations with China and India and Europe. Uh that ignores um you know uh bill CC5 that removes the the uh consumer-based carbon tax. So they're trying to link Carney to Trudeau and it just it doesn't work.

[00:12:59]>> All right. While separatists organize for the road ahead, groups opposing the referendum continue as well to grow in numbers. The latest to enter the frey.

[00:13:07]Alberta's Voice, led by this gentleman, political strategist Steven Carter. The group aims to fight all questions on the October ballot, saying they're being used to divide voters and distract from real issues facing the province. The group argues economic risks are real, saying uncertainty around separation alone could impact investment and job growth in Alberta. John, how much of a how much of a voice do you see Alberta's voice bringing to the conversation at a time when a multitude of groups and organizations are emerging to to drive pro-Canada support?

[00:13:42]>> I think they could play quite a big role. I mean, Stephven Carter's record uh campaigning speaks for itself, I think. And you know, Alberta's voice isn't just looking at the separation question. And this is something that people need to remember is that separation is just or the vote to have a later vote on separation is just the latest question to be added on to the the fall referendum. There are nine other questions and um Alberta's voice is unique in that to to my uh knowledge of of the landscape of um political action committees. They are the they have the they have been the only ones to say that they will be campaigning on all questions on the upcoming referendum. So I think you know that's an important bit of novelty that they bring. Um the other thing that people need to remember is that uh third party advertisers are limited in the amount of funds that they can spend and so um there's a lot of work to be done and many hands make light work and I think that's why notwithstanding you know the possibility of of diluting and and competing messages. Um I think there's lots of room for groups to play in this space because the spending cap is relatively restrictive. Dwayne, what's to be made of of Steven Carter emerging as the proponent here? It was not that long ago we were speaking with him about aligning with what remains of the Alberta Liberal Party.

[00:15:04]>> Yeah. So, as John is right, Steven Carter's got a pretty good track record of of winning campaigns and that's what this is, but not the face of the campaign. Yeah. you know, normally he is he is behind the the the scenes. And just as I mentioned, there's some splintering with the separation movement. We're seeing splintering uh amongst the pro-Canada forces as well.

[00:15:25]By my count, there's at least four different organizations, right? You have Thomas Lucas, Forever Canada. Then the movement of of Jason Kenny and and Monty Soulberg that they put together. Then there's a third conservative group with with Jim Denning and Travis Taves and and Jen Gerson and Ken Bosen and and now you have Steven Carter. They're saying some of the same things, but their tactics and their messaging is going to be different. And that's going to make it very difficult, I think, for the average person when there's two sides, but there's multiple voices on each side. All right, uh, time for us to take a bit of a break, but when we come back, the state of unity within the United Conservative Party on the issue of separation. More from our politics panel [music] in a moment.

[00:16:24]Welcome back with the question on separation now confirmed. Members of the UCP caucus are echo echoing the premier stance uh that Alberta remain in Canada.

[00:16:35]>> I definitely wish to remain in Canada. I think we there's a pathway to meeting the aspirations for Albertans within Canada.

[00:16:42]>> I always campaign for Alberta and Canada and better uh together is better.

[00:16:48]>> On Canada Day, we will definitely be celebrating and handing out Canada flags. And despite UCP president uh Rob Smith previously telling media the party will stay neutral on the separation issue since members have not had an official party vote. Danielle Smith in a radio interview Wednesday said hers is the last word and the party's official position is that it wants Alberta to stay in confederation. Dwayne to you first. To what degree is this maybe a potential turning point within the UCP as a unified party, including where the caucus is concerned?

[00:17:22]you you need to separate the different branches of the United Conservative Party, right? So, you've got um the you know, the premier, the leader of the party, the cabinet, the caucus. So, those would be the elected MLAs. Then you've got the the party structure, Rob Smith being the the president, the various uh constituency association presidents, and then you've got the larger supporters who may or may not be members or could be induced to being members. And to say that they're speaking with a unified voice, I think, is just frankly wrong. Uh all you have to do is compare um what Mitch Sylvester has been saying who is a constituency association president in Bonnieville. um who is a pro-separatist who is now trying to challenge Daniel Smith's uh leadership on caucus. Yes, they have come out um vocally in favor of Canada after Smith's TV address. But you also have someone like Jason Stefen um who is um you know an MLA out of Red Dear who wrote a very powerful strong pro-separatist message in in the Western Standard and then seemed to leave his parliamentary secretary job under very mysterious circumstances. So we're going to have a five-month campaign to think that all of those elements of the party that I just described are all going to speak with one voice. No, that's not true. There is internal divisions within the United Conservative Party, which is why we're having the referendum in the first place.

[00:18:52]>> John, the party did issue a new statement on Wednesday signaling it supports Alberta staying in in Canada.

[00:18:58]To you, would that suggest the conversation is over where the UCP is a a political overarching organization is concerned?

[00:19:07]>> Not at all. um the separatist forces within the UCP are openly organizing to try and force um the the caucus and the the leader hand in this. Right? As Dwayne pointed out, there's different branches of this party. And sometimes the left hand doesn't uh control what the right hand is doing. And you know, this has been a classic Dwayne can speak to this better than I can. He actually wrote an article on it. This is a a timeless division within um Alberta provincial conservative parties where there's a more radical wing and a more establishment, you know, business-minded wing that have come into conflict before and it's always the discipline of power that's kept them um together. But I mean with with the separatists being um you know suppressed uh by uh a lot of the initiatives coming from from the premier and and the caucus, they're going to keep organizing and and this is far from over.

[00:20:05]>> All right, for us one more topic that is uh plans for major protests across the province on Friday and pushing back against Smith government policies and priorities. the Alberta Federation of Labor uh organizing leading a day of protests with 20 rallies and marches planned for 15 communities, the largest of which will be midday in downtown Edmonton and uh late afternoon at Riley Park in Calgary. John, what do you what what do you see this planned series of protests across the province accomplishing?

[00:20:38]>> I'm not sure. Um, I think there there is a role for these these labor groups, but um I think they just have to ask themselves, you know, if they're going to try and persuade people who might be tempted to separate, a lot of those folks are probably center right, maybe even like right leaning, are a bunch of union activists going to be the best uh people to persuade those people to stay in Canada? And I'm not saying that there isn't a role for for union activists to play, but if they're going to try and mobilize uh to make sure that the federalist side gets out and vote, do they need to be doing um these kind of like uh big public often aggressive um demonstrations that might push some of the soft separatists away? Um or can they do a mobilization campaign within their own uh base of support that is a little quieter and doesn't risk alienating um separatist curious Albertans? Dwayne, we should point out these protests were actually in the works well before the premier's announcement one week ago that a a question on separation is to be added to the October referendum. But how much of a role do do you see this AFL-driven initiative now having in the independence debate?

[00:21:47]>> Uh Gil Gil McGawan often promises mass protests. We we saw that in the aftermath of the use of uh the notwithstanding clause and the teacher strike. Um and those just fizzled out.

[00:21:59]There was no mass strike. Um there were some rallies but but small scale. There were some recall efforts. But you know when Gil McGawan makes statements about we're going to bring this government down um you know yes that mobilizes a certain group of activists um but it also alienates much of the rest of the province as as John pointed out. So, you know, I I think we need to uh give uh when Gil McGawan speaks with a bit of grain of salt because he does promise these big events and that those never transpire.

[00:22:33]>> Yeah. And and John, if if people don't turn out tomorrow, >> well, then it just looks bad, right? Um it's just another uh instance of the AFL overpromising and and underdelivering on um massive action.

[00:22:48]>> All right, gentlemen. We'll leave it there for time. Good to see you both.

[00:22:51]Thank you for this.

[00:22:53]>> Okay. Thank you.

[00:23:07]Now, here are a few responses to a recent story posted by CTV News about Premier Danielle Smith saying a referendum is necessary for Alberta to move past the separation debate. In response, Wolf writes, "Perhaps a general election to go with the unwanted referendum. Let Albertans truly decide this issue." Here's what Steven thinks.

[00:23:28]A party needs to run transparently on Alberta sovereignty in the next election. Win, convince the rightful owners of the land to void their treaties, and then win a referendum in order for it to be legitimate. The way this is going down is not democratic.

[00:23:45]Deb suggests add a question to ask whether Danielle Smith should be recalled. Beck says a referendum hurts Alberta more than any pipeline not being built. Nobody is going to want to invest in Alberta if there there's a danger of losing your investment due to a separation. But according to Giant Trance, Alberta independence can't come soon enough. Have your say. Email us anytime at commentsalbertarapimerime.com.

[00:24:14]Coming up tomorrow, policies and priorities of the Smith government, including the push to a referendum on separation will be front and center at day of protest rallies across the province Friday and we will hear from the key proponent. That is our program for tonight. Have a great evening everyone. From all of us at Alberta Prime Time, thank you for watching and join us again next time.

[00:24:41]Heat.

[00:24:57]Heat.