Tropical Storm Bertha Begins Westward Turn; Dangerous Surf, Heavy Rain Continue for the Gulf Coas...

[00:00:00]Hey there everyone. I'm meteorologist Hannah Finken and thank you so much for joining me on this next update on the advisory that just came out from the National Hurricane Center on Tropical Storm Bertha. Now, the strength has not adjusted all that much, but we're starting to see a slight turn in the way of its path. So, this is the current radar picture of what Bertha looks like.

[00:00:22]Still seeing the majority of those rain bands to the south of the actual storm just because along our area it's still fighting some wind shear and some dry air. So, let's move on through the forecast. This is the current radar picture. It's at 12:56 right now and not a lot of rain in the area, but a small portion of us are seeing some of those rain bands make their way in. So, this is the current picture out the center is a little bit closer to our coastline about 40 mi off of the coastline of Pensacola there. Not a lot of thunderstorm activity. There are some lightning bolts associated, but right now looks just like a lot of rain and that's the only thing we're seeing locally in our area. So, a healthy rain band has made its way inland and it's making its way through through Northwest Florida at this time. It's very isolated to scattered rain if anything. A brief heavy downpour, maybe some gusty winds associated with it, but as you can see, a lot of us in the Northwest Florida area are not seeing much of those rain bands. Fort Walton Beach, it's just north of you and then we're seeing some offshore as well. Some of them slowly making their way into Baldwin County near the Alberta area as well as the Brewton area just east of I-65 those rain bands are currently located. So, Tropical Storm Bertha for its new advisory, 60 mph. So, we have not adjusted the wind speed or the pressure.

[00:01:40]Really what has changed a little bit is the movement. So, we're still sitting at 60 mph wind uh speeds at this time.

[00:01:48]Pressure is still at 995 millibars and its movement, this is where we're starting to see a little bit of a change. Northwest at 5 mph. So, it has picked up a little bit of speed, not a lot. We were only at three earlier today, but at some point we're going to start to slowly see it shift a little bit more towards the west rather than the north northwest like we saw. So, we went from north northwest to northwest, and then later this evening we'll probably start to see that shift for the west, and then we'll start to slowly see some um uh disorganization as well. So, its current location is 90 mi southwest of Panama City, Florida, about 120 mi south of the Mobile area.

[00:02:28]This is a high-res satellite at this time. You can see a lot of that convection is just to our south, but we're still seeing some dry air get sucked into the uh rain bands that are affecting our area directly. And we have seen some adjustments to the tropical storm um alerts. We still have that tropical storm warning for uh the entire coastline of the Fox 10 viewing area, and that's stretching all the way through the Mississippi coastline into the Louisiana New Orleans coastline there, and then inland New Orleans, and then to the continual west of that. We still have a strong tropical storm watch now issued for that area. We will probably see this continue on through the next coming days just until it starts to make its way towards our west during the evening hours of Wednesday.

[00:03:14]So, the track is still pretty much the same as what we've been seeing. The center of it is going to be primarily to our south, but obviously we can still get some of those rain bands that do fight through that wind shear and dry air as we're seeing right now moving through northwest Florida. Um It's just direct going to be just to the south of the panhandle of Florida where our northwest Florida counties later this evening, slowly making its way through our coastline moving to the west throughout the day on Wednesday until Wednesday evening. And then eventually it's expected to make landfall at this time somewhere in Louisiana. And then thanks to the fact that it's going to be interacting with a landmass, it's probably going to get disrupted, turn into a depression, and then just become a disorganized low by the time it makes its way to Texas, which is good news for the Texas area because they do not need any more rain, especially after what they've dealt with over the last couple of weeks. So, the steering current is still basically the same. That tropical system is slowly making its way towards our area, but before it actually makes it to us, then it starts to take that shift off to the west because of that upper-level ridge really dominating over our area. That's that orangey-red color, that high-pressure system.

[00:04:30]It's bringing in a lot of sinking and dry air. Well, when it comes to tropical systems or anything in regards to severe weather, we need we need rising air. So, because we don't have that, it's going to be continuing to push and trying to get away from that dry air, as well as that wind shear going into the coming days. And then our forecast models, this is the spaghetti plot where we get those ensembles and other models, majority of them are pushing towards the west. Couple of them are trying to say it stays a little bit more north a little bit longer, but majority of them are showing that they're all in agreement of it going towards the west later this evening. So, that'll continue on, and then obviously once it is disrupted with the use of that landmass, once it makes potential landfall in Louisiana, that's when things start to get a little bit more which way it's going into Texas, but honestly, by the time it makes its way to Texas, it's more going to be disrupted rain if anything.

[00:05:25]Now, we have seen adjustments in some of our alerts. We did get a coastal flood advisory that'll last until 10:00 a.m.

[00:05:31]Thursday for the threat of minor coastal flooding in possible areas through Thursday morning, mainly near the coastline, Dauphin Island, the Bayway, excuse me, the causeway and such. And part of that is just because once we get high tides, some of those winds can push them in. This isn't really associated with rain if anything, but that'll last in the next 36-hour period. Overall, the rainfall forecast, this is probably the least impressive part of this tropical system for our area specifically. Usually when you hear tropical storm or a hurricane, you're going to think a lot of wind and a lot of rain. Well, yes, we're getting the wind impacts, but overall, the rain is not going to be as much of an issue for us. Most of the heaviest rain will likely fall over the Gulf waters as it makes its way towards Louisiana, but again, most of that still stays south of Louisiana, which is good news for that area as Louisiana and the New Orleans area is very prone to flooding. We could see 15 inches of rain falling over the Gulf, but for us locally, not as bad. We could see between 1 to 3 inches, maybe 4 to 5 of local flooding and isolated flooding in some areas, but this is our current future cast. As you can see, the center is still going to be offshore, but some of those rain bands could win the fight with that drier air and wind shear, which was to be expected. We were not going to expect a dry pattern out of this, but some of those rain bands, why we've been saying some of those squall lines could make their way through, could bring a decent downpour and some gusty winds associated with it throughout the day today and into Wednesday and parts of Thursday as well as it's making its way off to the west.

[00:07:08]And again, most of that convection is staying to our south. So, if it is going to rain, it's going to be a brief 20-30 minutes max of a downpour and some gusty winds, but the thing is, the gusty winds is going to stay pretty consistent over the next 3-day period going into Wednesday. Some of those showers could push their way into our more inland areas just because we're starting to have that wind shift. We're going to have southerly flow, so that's going to help push a little bit of those showers and thunderstorms come made from this system and push it into our inland areas near Highway 84 later in the day on Wednesday.

[00:07:40]Today and into tomorrow morning, a lot of the rain is going to remain along I-10 and just barely to the north and obviously along the coastline. That's where we're seeing most of the placement. Most of our inland areas today are going to remain dry, but we could see some of those showers get pushed inland due to more southerly flow because from the system itself cuz once it makes its way off to our west, southerly winds start to come into play for us. So, we could see a little bit more moisture increase compared to what we've been seeing lately. So, this will continue through the day Thursday. Um probably see those rain bands end probably in the evening on Thursday, but rain chances are still going to be pretty typical for our summertime pattern going through the weekend. We're not expecting a lot of rainfall from this between 1 to 2 in according to our Euro model. Our HWRF is showing actually less than this. So, we're expecting between 1 to 3 for the actual range in regard to our rainfall total. So, rain chances over the next 7 days, um they're going to be between about a 40% chance and maybe a 50% chance tomorrow.

[00:08:42]Mainly because we see more of those rain bands slowly push into our inland areas due to southerly flow. Once the system makes its way to our west, the southerly flow starts to dominate the area a little bit more. And then we'll have that 40% chance going through the weekend. But again, that's pretty typical for this time of year. Once we get to Friday, we transition back into our typical summertime pattern and things start to calm down just a little bit in the Gulf. We'll still see a moderate to high risk of rip currents, which is our main concern. And then those gusty winds will last through Thursday as well. We're already starting to see this especially near the coastline. This is our current wind gust speed. We're seeing a 32 mph wind gust in Pensacola right now, 30 mph wind gust in Gulf Shores, 30 mph wind gust in Mobile currently, 29 in Fairhope, then 25 in Crestview, then our more inland areas near Highway 84, they're ranging between 15 to 20. The coastline is where we're going to see the most powerful wind gust of anything. So, this is over in Destin, Florida, 35 to possibly 40 mph wind gusts throughout the entirety of the day when the actual wind speed is between 20 to 25. Same story for the most part in Gulf Shores, we're expecting up to about 30 to 35 mph wind gusts there with the actual wind speeds near about 20.

[00:09:55]Then moving a little bit more inland towards Mobile, we're going to be getting up to about 30 mph wind gusts with the actual wind speeds ranging from about 15 to 20. So, here's a look at our wind gusts forecast. Keep in mind, this is just one model. We're already starting to see the 35 mph wind gusts in certain areas. We're just probably going to see a little bit more of a pickup in regards to our wind speeds and wind gusts going into this evening as the low itself is making its way west along our coastline. And then as it's making its way into Louisiana, we're still going to see those wind gusts behind the system, like we were mentioning where we could still get some of those rain bands coming in just because as you can see, we have more southerly flow on the back end of the system. And we can see 30 mph wind gusts continuing into Thursday.

[00:10:42]Then they'll start to slowly calm down into the evening hours along with our rain chances as well.

[00:10:48]So, because of the gusty winds, our biggest concern is our rip current risk.

[00:10:54]It's actually life-threatening. Baldwin County has double red flags waving. We would not be surprised if other beaches in Florida as well as Dolphin Island have picked up on that trend as well because we do have this high surf high surf warning in place until 6:00 a.m. Thursday for breaking waves up to 8 to 11 ft in the surf zone. So, we're going to keep that in mind. And that's part of the reason why we do have that coastal flood advisory in place is because the surf is going to be high.

[00:11:22]And then during high tide around 4:00 a.m. to 8:00 a.m. in the morning, we could see some of that flooding coming into play just because the waters are already high because of high tide. And then on top of that, the rip current is going to stay high over the next 3-day period. Luckily, they'll start to slowly calm down going into the week and we'll have a moderate risk of rip currents on Friday as well as Saturday. But still be extra cautious.

[00:11:46]This does change day by day and each individual beach can have its own different forecast. Even though we're saying there could be a moderate risk of rip currents, Baldwin County and such as Orange Beach or Gulf Shores could still be waving those red flags. Same thing going into Florida as well. So, what do those beach flags means? This is what we're see we see double red flags, which means extreme hazards are present. The water is closed to the public. It is illegal to get into the water when we see those double red flags. We already have seen some people have to having to be taken out of the water by lifeguards in Baldwin County because they're trying to ride the waves with a boogie board and inflatables. That is not what you want to be doing right now. That is extremely dangerous. These rip currents are expected to continue strengthening over the next coming hours and into the overnight hours. And really, the rip current risk is going to be the worst starting to right now and then lasting until through Wednesday morning and into the afternoon. Then eventually, we'll start to see singular red flags. I still would not get in the water if you're seeing singular red flags. It's just not worth it. And then eventually, we'll transition into those yellow flags, which is a moderate risk of rip currents there and that will probably see those a little bit more over the weekend. But this is why we're telling people to stay out of the water. This is our Orange Beach camera, Eastern Shore Toyota camera network.

[00:13:05]It has just been continually getting worse. And this picture has been picking up more and more of that white.

[00:13:11]You can really see how rough the surf is going along the shoreline there. It's not much better over in Dauphin Island, either. Over the next 5 hours, the wind is going to be the main thing. Could see some showers and thunderstorms developing in the during the lunchtime hours over in Orange Beach, Dauphin Island just as rough there. You can see that from uh our current picture off the east end there. And again, it's just going to continue to get worse as we go into the coming days. And on top of that, storm surge. So, we don't have that storm surge watch in place anymore. I think they're really starting to think more of a flooding risk possible, especially during high tide, rather than a storm surge. But, the potential is still there, especially for coastal Mississippi. Our entire area along the coastline is expecting storm surge between 1 to 2 ft. So, but the potential is still there. The likelihood is just not as high as what we were originally thinking. Now, it looks a little bit more of coastal flooding could be more of an impact compared to the actual storm surge itself. But, luckily for us, we're going to go into some of the things that are helping us.

[00:14:14]So, currently, our wind forecast, we're seeing those northeasterly winds around 15-20 mph. So, it's bringing in dry land air instead of getting in that tropical uh southern moist air from the Gulf.

[00:14:27]But, that will start to change once we get into Thursday because the back end of that system allows for that transition into southerly flow there.

[00:14:34]Here's a look at our water vapor. That black uh air mass, that is drier air.

[00:14:39]But, obviously, it's still fighting with the tropical system. So, that is why all the convection is staying to the south of it. So, it looks a little lopsided.

[00:14:47]Some people said it looks like a shrimp.

[00:14:48]But, overall, that is not expected to change in regards to our weather pattern. Most of it stays to the south.

[00:14:55]And also, it's just fighting so much wind shear, as well. So, it's kind of struggling to remain in appropriate shape. So, the system itself is still strengthening, but because it's fighting wind shear and dry air, that's why it kind of looks lopsided. It looks a little irregular in what we typically see with a tropical storm visual setup.

[00:15:15]So, even though the storm itself is pretty much trying to organize, it looks disorganized just because of the atmospheric ingredients we have in place. So, moving to our key messages, the deadly surf and dangerous rip currents is our main thing we're the most concerned with because when you're looking at you just saw on our cameras, it looks like a nice sunny day outside with partly cloudy skies. So, you don't think anything is wrong. So, a lot of people are just going to remain with their beach days. Do not go in the water. It is the most deadly killer across the Gulf Coast is the rip current. So, that's why we're just saying turn your beach day into a pool day. It's just safer and it'll be better in the long run. And then on top of that, we could see those passing quick hitting tropical bands. We're already seeing that in Northwest Florida at this time. The storm surge is not as big of an issue, but again, it's more of a possibility than a likelihood like we were originally seeing. They did drop that storm surge watch, but the main time we'll be watching for the possibility of maybe some storm surge is going to be during the hours of 4:00 a.m. to 8:00 a.m. tomorrow morning because that's when we have high tide.

[00:16:21]But overall, tropical storm winds is also the primary coastal concern. We're going to see some of that push inland as well. So, for your local headlines as we're tracking Bertha, here is what you need to know. Dangerous surf is our most our biggest concern. Life threatening surf at our beaches till about Friday.

[00:16:38]We could see a change in that though, so make sure you stay with us and check the local forecast. Breezy conditions, coastal winds gust about 35 to 40 mph.

[00:16:47]Then we could see some passing squalls, those quick hitting showers, no more than about 30 minutes in duration, especially near the coastline, but going into the later day of Wednesday and into Thursday, some of those could slowly push into our inland areas where we have that southerly flow allow for that.

[00:17:03]But just besides the point of Bertha, we also want to tell you that it is still very hot outside. We still have that heat advisory for George and Green County where we could see heat index values up to 108 degrees across those specific areas, but we're still seeing heat index values well into the triple digits for the entirety of the area. So, even if you're not highlighted in this heat advisory, you still want to take the heat heat to stay cool. You still want to take those heat-related precautions to keep yourself cool. Check on those vulnerable to the heat and also bring your pets in because obviously with all the information coming out with Bertha, keeping everybody updated with that, sometimes talking about the heat can get swept under the rug. want people to remember that it is very hot and it can get dangerous out there in regards to heat advisory levels as well as heat stroke or heat exhaustion. And part of the reason we're seeing a lot of these heat alerts off to our west was that ridge of high pressure that we saw that is steering the flow for this tropical system. A lot of extreme heat warnings over in Louisiana, parts of Mississippi, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and even going into southern Illinois as well as Missouri into the Tennessee Valley there as well. So, we probably won't see much more of these. We'll have to keep an eye on Wednesday though. Wednesday is looking to be our worst day in regards to our heat index values. So, we're still in that danger zone today as well as tomorrow. So, probably we'll see another heat advisory issued for at least George and Green County tomorrow.

[00:18:30]There was one yesterday as well, but they do start to slowly come down just a little bit on Thursday, Friday as well Saturday just because that ridge of high pressure or that ridge of high pressure is not completely dominated over the area. So, our local forecast to sum it up, the main concerns regarding Bertha is the dangerous surf, the breezy conditions as well as those quick-hitting squall thunderstorms. We saw that storm tracker alert days in place today as well as tomorrow, mainly for those three reasons I just mentioned right there. Then going on Thursday, we start to get more into our typical summertime pattern, above average temperatures starting on Friday just because of that ridge of high pressure being still dominant over the southeast. and then our rain our rain pattern our flow there is going to be pretty typical for our summertime pattern going through the weekend. Just make sure you stick with us. Obviously, our next advisory will come out about 4:00 p.m. So, we'll have an update then.

[00:19:25]We're going to do another update during Fox 10 Live at 3:00 p.m. Then meteorologist Nicholas Herboso and Chief Meteorologist Jason Smith will have an update at 4:00 p.m. when the next advisory comes out. Right now, what we're expecting from Bertha is more of a shift in its path. Those are going to be the main things we're looking for. I'm not We're not really expecting it to continue to strengthen anymore. We're kind of thinking it's going to stay at tropical storm levels, especially since it is expected to make landfall in Louisiana in the next 24 hours and that land interaction is just not going to allow for it to strengthen anymore. So, we're going to keep you updated online on all of our social media platforms on air as well. So, make sure you stick with the Storm Tracker weather team as we continue to update you on Tropical Storm Bertha. And also, make sure you stay cool in this heat.

[00:20:12]So,