CARDANO ADA - Market Overreaction! Is This One Big Distraction?! This Move Continues!

Ajouté : 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]And just like that, we are now in the middle of the week. But unfortunately, we've gotten a little bit of red to get here. I do want to talk about this move yesterday because things had actually been looking pretty good early on and then they shifted very abruptly. I actually wanted to have a discussion about a a comment from a viewer because I think people need to realize that right now what we're dealing with is all one big distraction. Is this actually going to matter long term? We'll discuss all that and more. So again, if you're new or haven't already, make sure you like, comment, subscribe, show your support for the channel down below. But yes, it was a day that ended up being kind of all over the place. Earlier on in the day, we were rising. We were looking good. ADA actually got as high as 2472. BTC was staying on trend, above structure, and then things shifted very quickly. You guys can see that basically between 9:00 a.m. and noon, we saw ADA drop from that 2470 range all the way down to 2381. It was a drop of 3.7%.

[00:00:57]BTC had a very aggressive move to the downside as well. The overall day ended up being down 1.78%. Obviously, not a huge day, but it was a a day that brought us below that 50-day moving average. We had obviously talked about that that BTC might ride that for a few days before it decides to make a decision. Well, that decision got made, but really it all came on um some some news yesterday. And this news was that right there that uh Marco Rubio's signal that the Iran ceasefire and the straight of Hormuz negotiations are still far from finalized. So again, kind of this will they, won't they, will they, won't they? Escalations, deescalations, right?

[00:01:33]And that cratered the stock market. It dropped crypto. It caused massive liquidations to take place. Just to show everybody, [clears throat] $248 million in long leverage liquidation. So, not as big of a day as we we have seen, but for a market that's trying to hold on to structure and hold on to optimism, not not that great. Not exactly what you want to see. Now, since that time, ADA has been sideways. We've been following the trend. Nothing nothing too crazy there. We're still just trying to hold on to uh this this upper structure, and only time will tell if we are going to hold on to this. Some good news is that yesterday, Bit Bitcoin did in fact close that CME gap that was all the way down here at 75775.

[00:02:11]We do have a couple other CME gaps here.

[00:02:14]So, just pay attention to this one down at uh 75060. That is one that has not been closed from all the way back at the end of April. And then there are a few further downside ones. Now, speaking of downside ones, I know some people are still expecting much further, more significant downside. And it's very possible that that that could still happen, right? We've obviously talked about, you know, potentially BTC coming down towards the bottom of trend, touching potentially 73, 72K, somewhere in that range would obviously make a lot of sense if we do want to see more downside. Some people are expecting much much worse than that. And here's what I will say is we've been going through this time where again BTC has been ascending. We're obviously in a bare flag right now for BTC and we have not seen a downside break from this yet. At the same time, we are seeing our 20 our 200week moving average, which is your kind of bare market support band, if you will. That has been on the rise. In fact, now it's actually up to 616639, which is well above that 59K range uh that we came down to all the way back in February. So, as time has moved on, this has continued to rise, has gotten closer and closer and closer to price. And that is typically good for the rest of this this bare market, right? it's it's providing s further support. It's providing a stronger bounce level that isn't even as low as what we saw in February. It doesn't mean you can't go lower. The furthest we've retraced uh below our 200week moving average has been about 30%. So, just to kind of show everybody, you know, what that move would look like. That's a move for BTC down to about 43K. And again, I'm not saying this is happening for sure. I'm not being bearish. that came off of massive black swan events uh back here in in 2022. We obviously saw the same thing take place in 2015, but that was obviously when BTC was like $130. So, we're obviously obviously a long way away from that. Um but we are watching still good stability in the market, still major conviction from Wales.

[00:04:12]Obvious obviously institutions have been kind of all over the place, but their net holdings continue to rise. Yesterday was an outflow day just to show everyone $333 million worth of outflows. So they just kind of rode the wave of uncertainty, if you will. And that brings me to uh this this question from a viewer. This is from Jeffrey um Hearnden. He said, "Do do you not believe the war matters? Things will stay in this range. I believe nothing happens until ETF clarity and an actual bottom is established once the powers get the the price to the bottom they want. Only then things will change. Am I am I wrong?" And here's here's my interpretation of this. Uh they will use whatever they can to try to manipulate the market into further drops to try to make it set lower lows so they can get discounted prices. Um we've seen that before throughout history. It is not something that has changed which is why we've had such abrupt changes uh in the market. Now that being said, we have a different type of holder here now than we've had in the past. Remember, in bare markets in the past, you've always had new retail that's adopted the market as we've gone through these aggressive parabolic bull runs, you know, in in late late cycle years. We didn't have that this time. It's been people that have been here already, which means that people that are convicted right now have major conviction. And the people that are on the sidelines, they're on the sidelines, right? So, it's this balancing act between the two and you're waiting to see if one of them is going to make a move. And neither side is doing anything right now, which is why nothing has changed basically in the last 4 months. That typically does not happen in bare markets. So again, this is a very different bare market than what we've experienced historically speaking. That being said, at the same time that this is taking place, we're watching exchange supply drop. It's dwindling very, very quickly. And eventually, what happens when demand exceeds supply? Price moves up, right?

[00:06:06]doesn't mean it's going to be an aggressive explosion, massive upward candle like that, right? But it does help us gain traction and churn slowly but surely uh up and to the right. So that's kind of my interpretation on it.

[00:06:19]I think that right now the market continues to overreact to basically nothing burger news. I think that the the war uh between the US and Iran uh isn't is not going to matter long term.

[00:06:31]I think eventually everything is going to die down. There will be some sort of peace deal in place. uh things will open back up. You'll see oil prices eventually come back down. Energy will drop and it'll be at like one of those events that we look back throughout history that didn't really matter when it comes to the markets. For example, uh Ukraine, uh Russia at the time, do you guys remember the type of volatility we were seeing in the market? Does it even matter now? Do we even reference back to that? No, we don't. Right? It's the same thing with the COVID crash. It's the same thing with all these other events that have happened throughout history.

[00:07:07]It's just the local point of reference that continues to cause this just sea of volatility in the market. So, that's all I got for you guys in this one. Um, volume up slightly, uncertainty up slightly. Uh, and that's where we'll rest right now, but we'll see where the week brings us. I'd love for us to see a midweek pivot. And again, that short short presence is still very heavy. We did not liquidate shorts over the last 24 hours in a big way. So, it's very possible that now that we've gotten to the middle of the week, things may flip around and start to move the opposite direction, just as we've seen many times before. So, uh, keep in mind we have a PC report tomorrow. Um, I think we do have some, uh, Q1 GDP numbers as well that we'll pay attention to. So, I appreciate you guys. I hope you enjoyed the video. Let me know your thoughts below, but have a great day. Catch you guys in the next one. Take care.