Prediction markets: The risks as users bet on war, politics and more

Ajouté : 2026-05-24

[00:00:00]What if you could bet on a war, or the next political shockwave, or the weather in Paris? Right now, billions of dollars are being staked on questions across fast-growing prediction markets where users trade on yes or no outcomes of real-world events.

[00:00:16]Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are seeing a surge in users trying to make a quick buck on just about anything, from wars to the weather, live events to general elections. In a recent case, a trader says he made $2,000 betting that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio would say DJ in a press briefing.

[00:00:38]This came after the diplomat was filmed behind a set of turntables at a wedding party. It can sound like a bit of fun, but the stakes are far higher when it comes to geopolitics.

[00:00:52]On these platforms, users are pricing the outcomes of conflicts, including the war with Iran, and trading on whether the regime will fall.

[00:01:01]Critics warn the markets are vulnerable to exploitation.

[00:01:05]This is 100% guaranteed to get manipulated and be dealt with in an insider trading manner because there's no real oversight. There's no one really protecting the consumers on these prediction markets.

[00:01:21]In one such case, a US special forces soldier who was part of the raid to capture then President Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela is accused of trading on Polymarket on the basis of classified information, making $400,000.

[00:01:37]Gannon Kan Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty.

[00:01:40]Regulators are now scrambling to catch up. And late last month, the US Senate voted unanimously to ban its members and staff from trading on prediction markets.

[00:01:50]But at the same time, one expert told us not to expect an aggressive clampdown >> [music] >> from the Trump administration. I think you will see a light touch to the industry from this administration. I think it's fair to say based [music] on the conduct that you've seen to date that this administration [music] views technology with a relatively light touch. You know, right now it's the wild west.