Trump in China: What Happens Next for Global Markets? | Martin Armstrong

追加: 2026-05-14

[00:00:00]Meanwhile, if you look at the stockpile of of oil, it's going into crash mode.

[00:00:09]Um, so I don't see this as a shortterm issue.

[00:00:17]Uh, I think it's going to get probably much worse.

[00:00:35]Hello everyone and welcome to another edition of Triangle Investor Interviews.

[00:00:39]I'm your host Lucalkovich. And before I announce my guest, just a quick reminder of a disclaimer. This interview and all my interviews are not a recommendation to buy or sell any shares, products or services. Always do your due diligence and consult with your financial advisor.

[00:00:53]Today we are speaking with Martin Armstrong, American financial analyst, market commentator and founder of Armstrong Economics. Martin, always delighted to have you in the show.

[00:01:03]Welcome back.

[00:01:05]>> Nice to see you again.

[00:01:07]>> Thank you so much, Martin. Nice to see you again too. Uh, a lot of topics we will cover today. I have a lot of topics on my mind. We will see what we will manage to do it today. But maybe we should start, if it's okay with you, with inflation. The market is again confronting an energy-driven inflation shock. Is this a temporary geopolitical spike or the beginning of a second in inflation regime?

[00:01:35]Well, um we have some serious problems and one is that um you know Trump's blockade on Iran.

[00:01:51]China gets about 90% of its oil from there. So it ends up being a national security issue for them.

[00:02:00]Meanwhile, if you look at the stockpile of of oil, it's going into crash mode.

[00:02:09]Um, so I don't see this as a shortterm issue.

[00:02:17]Uh, I think it's going to get probably much worse. Uh, particularly over the summer. Um, I mean that's when you often have uh people traveling, driving around, vacations, things of that nature. So, usually August is the kind of peak in prices to begin with. So, I wouldn't expect, you know, prices to, you know, go down or anything of that nature. uh it's um and the computer has shown that while the US uh would be in a stagflation where inflation is higher than the the GDP growth um Europe is more going into a depression um largely because of the um the kind of really stupid decisions that have come out of the EU from everything from climate change to putting sanctions on Russia, etc. Um, it's kind of like I'm going to shoot myself in the foot to show you that I'm serious, you know. Um, it mean the price of energy is going up dramatically in Europe. Then you throw on the Middle East crisis. You have Mcronone out there meeting with Jien and Mcronone is more trying to take France to the you know like Napoleon they call him the the petite Napoleon he's more like the Gaul and wants to um Europe to separate from the United States promises that they will provide the nuclear umbrella for them. um he went met with Jen and said that Europe as if he's now the head of Europe uh will no longer uh get engaged in wars that are not in their territory Middle East. But he also said Taiwan we will not participate.

[00:04:27]Uh so um I don't you know I don't think he has an economic rational idea.

[00:04:39]Um, but you know, part of the, you know, Trump pulling out troops and things of this nature, if you go back to 1960, the debate between JFK and Nixon caused the gold panic.

[00:04:59]Why? because he admitted what was the real issue behind uh the decline in the dollar and gold reserves and he said it wasn't trade it was the fact that the US had military bases all over the world and um gold was 35 bucks at the time but it shot up to about 42 um because they were concerned that if he came the power that maybe he would start reducing the military in NATO etc. So um that would be you know pulling the troops out of NATO and cutting things off benefits the United States. It saves money but I don't think Mcronone realizes how much that that you know defense spending helped Europe. Uh, so it's, you know, I you're going to see him I I think that is basically part of the reason we're looking at a very serious decline economically for Europe into 2028.

[00:06:17]>> That is a good point, Martin. Which what breaks first in this renewed inflation, stackflation shock? Is it consumer demand, sovereign finances, or maybe corporate margins or something else?

[00:06:30]What do you think?

[00:06:32]>> Um the energy impacts everything um from making fertilizer to plastics. So it's it's not a single thing of just like gasoline. it it ripples through the economy. Uh and that's what caused the stagflation of the 70s.

[00:06:59]People didn't realize how much it impacted everything.

[00:07:05]Um transportation, things of this nature. You just had like Lanza canceled 20,000 flights because of jet fuel shortages. Uh Canada just cut off flights from Vancouver to JFK. jet fuel shortages. Um, and you know, as you know, we've got offices everywhere from China, Thailand, UAE, etc. Uh, I can tell you in Thailand, there was basically no gasoline.

[00:07:36]That was fine. I mean, we had staff there couldn't even get gasoline for their motorbike.

[00:07:42]Um and but there was also a shortage in um in diesel.

[00:07:51]What did that impact?

[00:07:54]Without the diesel, your ships couldn't go out to get to fish.

[00:07:58]>> So then it ripples off into the food supply.

[00:08:02]>> Yeah.

[00:08:03]>> And that's why I say it's much more complicated than people uh realize in the headlines. as you might be reading in the newspapers.

[00:08:16]>> Yeah. Uh Trump heads to China this week.

[00:08:20]I want to hear your take on what will happen there.

[00:08:24]Do you do you really believe that something major will happen with this meeting or not?

[00:08:33]Honestly, um, China gets about 90% of its oil from Iran.

[00:08:44]Um, you know, Trump may be looking at digging in his heels here, but um, this is impacting the national security of China.

[00:08:59]So, I am not real optimistic about what comes out of this meeting. Um, something's got to give. Um, all right.

[00:09:10]China's, you know, um, basically controlling a lot of rare earths.

[00:09:19]Maybe there's that's the only possible I'll give you this, you give me that, uh, sort of thing. Um but then there's, you know, there's a lot of other issues that are um really on the table that should be discussed, but probably are not. You know, programming, AI, things of this nature. I'm not sure we're even going to see anything get to that level. Um but I mean um we we definitely have shortages like in silver or things of this nature as you're trying to create data centers etc. Uh but uh what we really also have to understand here is that there's um AI is not the the devil that a lot of people have portrayed. Oh, it's going to lay off jobs, etc. It's actually you see the stock market going up and everybody was saying, "Oh, it was going to crash 80% in April." It didn't happen. Um, I mean, we have probably the longest uh actual AI system in the world. Um, Socrates has got a 40-year track record.

[00:10:48]Um, it's been incredible in its forecast, but it's efficiency.

[00:10:56]There aren't enough analysts in the world to write the reports that it does every day. O like over 1,400 reports per day. All right. So, um it has expanded um our business dramatically over the years and that's what AI is doing.

[00:11:20]people are beginning to realize that it's increasing the productivity of companies, not necessarily laying everybody off.

[00:11:31]Um, you know, I don't see AI as um I mean there, you know, certainly there's a lot of jobs that are physical.

[00:11:42]Somebody's going to cut your hair. AI is not going to do something like that. All right. um but as a a tool to increase productivity in companies um because I've spoken to a lot of you know our corporate clients about this and the feedback I get is yes you're correct it's interesting it's actually increasing our productivity um so I mean I think we're probably going to see um you know corporate profits up more than people expected.

[00:12:24]Um but I still think you know we're in a a a period here because of the geopolitics.

[00:12:33]Um and I and so that's why I'm not so optimistic about Trump's meeting with with Jing. Um, I still think the stock market may peak out here in May and at least go for a couple months correction.

[00:12:50]Um, and I think this is more um geopolitical than anything else.

[00:13:00]>> Yeah. Uh, Martin, throughout our discussion, prior discussions, you often are you often argued war and depth are connected. So are governments now using geopolitical crisis as cover for economic weakness? Do what do you think?

[00:13:19]>> Yes. Historically they always do that.

[00:13:21]Um uh this is why Europe is constantly talking about war with Russia etc. It's it's a distraction.

[00:13:32]Okay. that if you're, oh, Russia's going to come in and and do this, then you're not paying attention to what they're doing.

[00:13:42]And uh their economic policies have been um absolutely the worst. Whatever wrong decision they could have made, they did. Um the proper way to look at and compare governments is not debt to GDP.

[00:14:06]It's what percent of GDP is consumed by the bureaucrats.

[00:14:12]All right? In the United States, it's about 35%.

[00:14:16]In the EU, it's over 50.

[00:14:20]So that brings down your productivity.

[00:14:26]And if you look at economic growth of the EU, it's a fraction of the United States.

[00:14:32]you know, they want to control everything, you know, oh, that went up. We we have to stop that. You you know, they don't believe in free markets. They don't understand um how things actually do function.

[00:14:51]Um and that's that's 99% of the problem.

[00:14:58]Um, I mean, I can tell you with with you get into fuel shortages. I mean, I remember the 70s, you know, we were you would get $2 worth of gas. That was it. And uh, every other day, and if you're you could get gas based upon your license plate, odd and even, which day you could get some gas. I had to go out and buy a Ford Pinto station wagon because I couldn't get enough gas to drive to work.

[00:15:31]>> That those were incredible times. I was not born then yet, but I remember the stories from my parents. Uh Martin.

[00:15:41]>> Yeah. Uh how close are we to a real global capital reallocation where investors stop optimizing returns and start optimizing political safety?

[00:15:54]Um, usually that's basically what war is uh unleashes and you're seeing the EU does understand that. This is why they're moving they're trying now to create uh their own stable coins um CBDC's.

[00:16:19]I mean, Europe routinely cancels its currency and they are moving in that direction because I think what they're more afraid of is that you go into war and it'll be capital flight again.

[00:16:37]Um, as I've said many times, the United States was virtually bankrupt in 1896 is when JP Morgan had to lend a hundred million in gold. Um, it was World War I and World War II that made the United States the financial capital was all the money move basic. You know, you got tanks running down the street blowing up banks. I don't think you're going to leave your money there. Um, and London was the financial capital uh before World War I and then they lost it. Um, New York took over. So war has always sent capital one way or another.

[00:17:24]Um I mean Athens rose basically with the fall you know of you know of Persia after they lost the Greek invasions in like 490. All right. So then Athens rises up and then you have Macedonia rising up and then they take Athens. I mean it's you know Macedonia became a very powerful economy.

[00:17:52]Athens was initially that's where insurance began things of this nature.

[00:17:58]Market economies that that's how um basically a country rises. If you look at history, uh Persia conquered Lydia in in Turkey and adopted theirs and they created the first realworld network of trade, you know, and then Athens does um and then Macedonia does and Alexander the Great. So it it's always um the market economy as long as it's free and expand it will grow dramatically you know when you start controlling it and things of that nature. That's why communism fell. Um you the productivity and you know I mean Stalin basically stole the food from Ukraine.

[00:18:56]Why? because they seized all the property and then you have a bureaucrat making the decision when to plant has no experience food basically a crisis and then to pretend the communism was still working. He had to steal the food from Ukraine.

[00:19:15]Um look these are government is at best a necessary evil. It's always the enemy. All right. Um, and it doesn't matter what form of government we're talking about. If it's monarchy, republics or communists or dictatorship or whatever. Um, you can read Plato and he he quotes a famous debate between Socrates and Thrasamakus.

[00:19:46]And thrass said justice is the same no matter what form of government. It's always basically the will of the stronger. And he's correct.

[00:20:02]You know, it's um nothing's changed in thousands of years.

[00:20:09]>> Exactly.

[00:20:10]>> You know, they it's uh it's still the same nonsense. They make a law and then they, you know, I mean, you can look at the history of laws. I mean, they even taxed the beard to raise money if you had a beard. I mean, um, so um, government is always the one that causes the ultimate collapse.

[00:20:36]No matter what form it is, they end up always wanting more and more power. And >> the way I see it, you take a small businessman and he wants to expand his business.

[00:20:54]All right? It's a human characteristic.

[00:20:56]Okay? But you take that same person, you put them in government and they want to expand the government.

[00:21:03]It's the same human emotion or objective. It doesn't matter. All right?

[00:21:08]Except, you know, the problem is to expand this government, they got to take the money out of our pockets to do so.

[00:21:16]Um, and they got to control us. Oh, we don't like you what you're saying. Um, so all of a sudden, you get into all kinds of uh crazy things. I mean, United States, we're supposed to have free speech.

[00:21:31]Very nice. Okay. The government can't stop you with CO. So they pick up the phone and say, "Cancel that guy. If you don't, I'm going to investigate you for taxes."

[00:21:42]>> So all of a sudden, YouTube, everybody else does the censoring that the is fine. The Constitution just says the government shall not.

[00:21:53]So they always have workarounds.

[00:21:56]All right? So you don't you do this otherwise we're going to investigate you for something else. I mean, it's um this is the way it goes. It doesn't matter what form of government, they're all the same.

[00:22:09]>> Yeah. Yeah. Uh Martin, let's move on. US debt. Uh US debt keeps growing. Uh it's nearly 40 trillion. Uh yet capital runs into dollar assets in every crisis. At what point does the safe haven trade fail?

[00:22:29]Um it doesn't look like it's going to fail anytime soon. Main reason it's like uh as they say US is the prettiest of the three ugly sisters.

[00:22:45]Um Japan's like the jet to GDP is well over 200%. Europe it it's what the US at least has the largest and strongest economy.

[00:23:03]It is expanding because of AI as I explained.

[00:23:07]Um but you know you know the the proportion consumed by government is also one of the least.

[00:23:19]So yes, it's got the biggest debt, but the proportion of what the government is consuming is less than that of Europe, for example.

[00:23:30]So it doesn't matter if it's 10 billion or 10 trillion or or 100red trillion. If the government is taking 50% of it all the time, the GDP growth is going to decline.

[00:23:43]Um but eventually what our computer shows or what this 2032 is about is that we go through these periods um where we overthrow monarchy then we went to republics and said um you always overthrow a government because they always end up corrupt anyhow.

[00:24:10]So between here and 32, what we're seeing is the average person is beginning to notice these things, not just those in finance. Um, and I think, you know, the whole issue with wars, things of this nature, um, are going to basically push this over the top. You know, they say we live in a democracy, but we do not. you know, they make the decisions to go to war. We we're never asked. Um when I ran, Netanyahu came into the White House and convinced Trump to do it. It's his decision.

[00:24:53]Congress didn't say yes. You know, nobody asked us, gee, you want to go to war with Iran? You know, Vietnam, it was, you know, that's why there were so many protests.

[00:25:06]You were 18, old enough to be drafted, but not old enough to even have a drink. You had to be 21 and you had to be 21 to vote. So, how is that democracy?

[00:25:19]You know, that's dictatorship.

[00:25:21]And that's what a lot of the protest in Vietnam was all about.

[00:25:25]>> I have no right to even speak about this, but I have a right to die for my country. What are you doing for me?

[00:25:33]Um, so I mean this is basically I think where between now and 32 more and more of the average person is is looking at this and um going to say you know this is not working. Uh even when you look at what was done with Hungary um to sell the EU uh they guaranteed that it had to be unanimous vote.

[00:26:12]As soon as Ursula interfered and got rid of Orban, what did she come out and say? Oh, we have to change this. One country shouldn't be able to stop us.

[00:26:26]So in other words, all the promises to join the EU have failed.

[00:26:34]Oh join, you'll have it this everybody will have the same interest rate. Didn't happen. Um you know it it's little by little everything that was promised to join the EU has been overturned.

[00:26:51]It just becomes a self-engrandized you know institution and they have to survive it. It's the same problem with NATO.

[00:27:05]You know, NATO should have been shut down when the Cold, you know, when the Warsaw Pack collapsed. But gee, if you do that, then they lose their pensions, their jobs. So, we have to keep NATO has to be constantly say that Russia wants to invade Europe.

[00:27:26]if they don't. Oh, we're the only ones protecting you, you know. But Europe has nothing that um really that Russia would want to go in and take. They don't have energy. They don't have um anything of value. It's always the opposite way. That's why Hitler, Napoleon, everybody wanted to conquer Russia because Russia is the richest country in the world from a natural resource perspective.

[00:27:58]Um, it's been widely estimated they got $75 trillion in natural resources still in the ground. Rare earth, everything, oil, you know, tim timber, precious metals, you name it, they have it. Um, so it's always been the opposite way. Um but you know they like to to rewrite history all the time >> that that yeah you mentioned precious metals. Uh I want to conclude this interview with with precious metals. How do you see the big picture for silver and gold market going forward? Do you see a big rise in the price or do you see a I don't know a stable rise or big spike rise or do you see maybe pullback in the metal.

[00:28:50]>> Uh our computer, you know, was correct in forecasting a pullback for a couple months. Why?

[00:28:59]Um because Russia had to sell some gold off because of the sanctions. But what has also not been uh widely reported and uh quite to my surprise um I mean we had offices there in in UAE and staff there. Um why did Iran attack um UAE? They sent more missiles and and drones at UAE than they did at Israel.

[00:29:34]Because UAE became the real new Switzerland after Switzerland confiscated money of Russians and say, "Oh, you knew Putin.

[00:29:45]You're a friend of his, so we're just taking all your money." Once they did that, they lost their independence. Um, so um the capital began to leave and moved to Dubai and Singapore.

[00:30:00]So attacking UAE um was strategically an economic chess play. I can tell you that they have a uh a $30 billion AI complex there.

[00:30:20]What happened? They did attack it. They didn't destroy it, but they did damage it short term.

[00:30:28]the banking system went down.

[00:30:31]We couldn't even get money to our staff for a week. So again, you had people selling gold because you couldn't there was no banking system.

[00:30:44]So this is why you you got the um the short-term correction.

[00:30:52]Longer term, the metals are going higher. Okay. They're more of a um I think you'll see it uh after May, starting in June, maybe a re, you know, starting to pick up again.

[00:31:11]Um I say I think that I don't know the computer does not like uh it's looking at a changing trend for a lot of markets here as of May. Mhm.

[00:31:27]>> And perhaps the um the downside of this is um I'm concerned more about this meeting with Trump and Jing mainly because as I said about 90% of the oil for China comes from Iran and now you're messing with their national security.

[00:31:56]I mean, if the shoe is on the other foot, I think the US would start, you know, sending missiles. Um, you know, it's I would be I would not be surprised.

[00:32:16]Uh, you just had, like I said, Mcronone go to to China and say, "Hands off. No matter what you do to Taiwan, we're not interested. All right. Um, so Trump wants to do the embargo against Tyran. If I was China, I would, you know, put a blockade around Taiwan.

[00:32:41]They already attempted to see if they could, they could. So, does that become a a bargaining chip?

[00:32:50]Um there's a lot on the table.

[00:32:54]Um and the computer definitely shows a change in trend um in the weeks that follow.

[00:33:06]So I'm not so sure that uh this is going to go over um very well.

[00:33:15]Understood.

[00:33:17]Uh, Martin, how can people reach out to you?

[00:33:21]>> Uh, you can go to armstrongeconomics.com.

[00:33:24]Um, it's free, it's open, you don't have to put in any emails. Um, you don't get 50 emails a day trying to sell you something. Um, and we just try to provide it as a international uh public service because we have we're not blocked. We have offices in China um throughout Asia, Middle East, etc. So, uh we try to at least provide an objective view of what the computer is and not not biased politically or one one way or another.

[00:34:06]>> Okay, Martin, as always, a great chat.

[00:34:08]Thank you so much for joining me today.

[00:34:10]>> Well, thank you for inviting me. Take care over there. Um, watch your back.