BITCOIN: WILL HISTORY REPEAT?

Ajouté : 2026-05-10

[00:00:00]Bitcoin is currently in the process of retesting a very important level and that level is $80,600.

[00:00:08]In today's video, I want to take you through the most recent Bitcoin price action and going over what could impact the market in the upcoming days, weeks, and months. If you enjoy the content, make sure to smash that like button and subscribe. Let's jump right into it. So, you can see here that this level that I have highlighted on the chart right at around $80,600 is the previous range low, which allowed Bitcoin to pop back up all the way to $98,000.

[00:00:37]Now, if you've been tuning into my content, you'll remember that I aggressively shorted Bitcoin from around this zone, and I made a lot of profits on the way down doing so. However, I added to my existing position after taking those profits. And right now, my Bitcoin trade is currently looking like this. I've secured around 320K in profits on this trade, but I am currently down 36K on this most recent addition to the trade. Looking to potentially add more to my existing position. So, let me just take you through the logic, the price action, and what I plan to do in these upcoming days. For now, the bulls really want to hold on to $80,600 because this would suggest potential continuation higher. The reason being, if we can reclaim the bottom of an existing range, it suggests that Bitcoin can go to the upside of that previous range. However, if we start to get confirmed daily candle closes below $80,600, then that could suggest that this was just a deviation out of the top of this existing range that we're currently in.

[00:01:46]So, where are my levels of interest for Bitcoin? We know that in a bare market, Bitcoin typically breaks above its bull market support band. And when it does, it taps into or gets very close to the 200 day moving average. On my chart here, you can see that the 200 day moving average is this dark blue line, which is currently sitting at around $83,130.

[00:02:12]A lot of people have their eyes on this level for a potential rejection for Bitcoin. If we go on the weekly time frame, it'll paint a little bit of a clearer picture where you can see that we haven't quite tapped into it, but we came within inches. And the last time that this happened was in the previous bare market. If we take a look at the Bitcoin price action and we zoom in, we reclaim the bull market support band.

[00:02:37]Everyone got very, very excited on this move from the low to the high. Just to remind you, especially if you're new to the channel, that is over a 45% pump.

[00:02:47]Then we came within inches of this 200day moving average. So, is history going to repeat for Bitcoin or is the bottom in? Because in my last video, a lot of you started commenting that the bottom is in. The 60K low was the low.

[00:03:05]Now, in my experience, based on the data that I have available here, I still don't firmly believe that the bottom is in. So, I do think that there is an opportunity over the course of this year for Bitcoin to likely drop below again.

[00:03:18]I've talked about this on the channel and a lot of you don't seem to like that. However, we've seen this time and time again and from the bare market, sorry, from the bull market top to where we are today, it's only been approximately 210 days. That would be one of the shortest bare markets in history. So, in my opinion, I think that we're seeing a bare market relief rally.

[00:03:41]It's very easy to get excited on these moves. And if you traded this move, you made some significant profits. So, congratulations on that. My long exposure for Bitcoin, as I've constantly discussed on the channel, has been holding spot Bitcoin. and I actually offloaded some additional spot Bitcoin above $80,000 since holding from those previous bare market lows sub 30K. So far, we've had around a 38% rally for Bitcoin. So, you can see that this isn't out of the ordinary for a bare market relief rally. Bitcoin can have aggressive rallies in the bare market.

[00:04:19]That coupled with the fact that we're seeing declining volume on this rally, coupled with the fact that if we zoom out a little bit more on the 7-day time frame, you can see that there is way more cumulative long liquidation leverage in the market. If we go on the 30-day time frame, it's even more significant. And if we go on the 90-day time frame, well, it paints the exact same picture. On the left, just to say the numbers out loud, we have just under 17 billion worth of cumulative long liquidation leverage. That would be if Bitcoin were to go back below $70,000.

[00:04:52]On the right here, we have just under 3.7 billion worth of cumulative short liquidation leverage, which would equate to Bitcoin going all the way up to around $91,600.

[00:05:07]It doesn't mean that we can't continue to pump because the market structure locally at least is still bullish until we can lose some key levels. But what I want to bring to your attention is the fact that over the higher time frames, I still think that what we're seeing is a bare market relief rally. Now, will I be proven wrong? Maybe. I've gone things wrong before, but if you've been watching the channel, I managed to short Bitcoin at around 123K. Took all the profits out of that trade. And then in this bare market, I managed to long these lows for a fantastic move. And this was also shared in my premium group. Made hundreds of thousands of dollars on this move up. Then I managed to short basically the pico top right at around $97,000 when the anchored VWAP tapped into the bull market support band and Bitcoin got rejected. And then I effectively missed this move from a leveraged trading position. So let's see how the price action develops. I'm content with my swing positions in this market and how I've been operating. Some of you will give me flack for it, but honestly, I've nailed pretty much most of these moves except for this one. And I've talked about it time and time again. I wish I could have gotten in at a 65k retest because that was the level that I highlighted in my community. So, some of you guys, especially within my community, have been taking advantage of the bounces in the bare market, the drops, the bounces again. And ultimately, I think we will see something like this. So, let's see how the price action develops. Again, this isn't a call for you to just jump into a massive short position. I'm just telling you that I'm a little bit skeptical about this rally because we've seen rallies extend even further than what we're seeing today. And something else to support this is of course the draw down from all-time high. It's significantly less of a draw down compared to the previous cycles. Some of you made the argument that perhaps because institutions are involved the draw down will be less significant. And while I do believe that to be true, I just don't think that a 50% draw down from all-time high to what we saw right below $60,000 was the final low for Bitcoin. And if it was, to be perfectly clear, there's a high probability that we come back down and revisit some levels over the course of this year as we typically do in bare markets. So, something else that I want to bring to your attention which will likely determine where the market could be headed is the fact that on Friday we have the non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate to consider. And on top of this, if we take a look at the Bitcoin price action compared to what it usually does in midterm years, we are really overextended. So, can the trend break? This is within one standard deviation of the midterm year average.

[00:07:50]And so, right now, we are above that level. Will we come back to the norm or can this just continue to move on up shaking out all of the skeptics like myself in this market? Reminder though, and maybe I should have been a little bit more clear over the past few months, I hold spot Bitcoin. I believe in the asset class long-term, and I'm happy to have my long exposure as my spot Bitcoin bag. I personally think it's silly to not have at least one foot in the asset class. You never want to be fully cash.

[00:08:23]Of course, this isn't financial advice.

[00:08:25]I'm just telling you what I am personally doing in this market. And if you want to see how I have been personally trading the market, trying to catch the rallies, catching the dumps, well, you do have the first link in my description down below. This is where I share all of my own personal trades and my overall market analysis. Every single trade that you see I have open on the channel is shared within my premium group. If that interests you, you know where to find me. DM me the keyword CBM on Telegram after clicking the first link in my description down below. The only requirement is that you sign up with one of the affiliate exchange links down below and you start trading on there as you normally do with your own capital. Now, I also wanted to give you a quick update on one of my positions which was Tao. You can see here that this trade has officially been closed. I made around 150K profits on this trade.

[00:09:15]It was around a 53% gain. And some of you might be asking how is that possible? Well, I entered at around 323 when everyone was getting very very excited about Tao. Managed to share this in the community, caught a very nice short, and then I got stopped out at break even as the price went back up.

[00:09:32]So, that's how I like to play these kinds of swing trades. When I get favorable price action, I take profits on the way down and I simply move my stop loss to break even. So, let's see how the price action develops. We had some pretty interesting news yesterday.

[00:09:46]White House official Patrick Wit says that Bitcoin strategic reserve announcement could be coming within weeks. So, let's see if this is actually significant or if it's just another nothing burger in a bare market. There's also currently a 64% chance that President Trump signs the crypto market structure legislation into law this year. This could be very interesting for the markets overall and maybe it coincides with the bare market bottom.

[00:10:14]Let me know what you think in the comments section down below. Do you think that the bare market bottom is in?

[00:10:20]Was 60K the low to send Bitcoin much higher or are we going to have another low over the course of this year? I have to be honest, guys. This is looking similar to other market cycles. Same thing with a lot of the comments I'm getting on social media. You can see here that half the people seem to be bullish. The other half seem to think that Bitcoin can trend lower. But on this rally, we definitely liquidated a lot of shorts in this market. We cannot ignore that fact. Right now though, Bitcoin is currently hovering on the 4hour time frame, right above that $80,600 level. So, watch for this because we came very close to that 200 day simple moving average. We have the anchored VWAP from all-time high down to where we are today all the way up to $85,000.

[00:11:09]And there is potential resistance ahead.

[00:11:11]We must consider this. Something else that I'd like to bring to your attention in terms of potential resistance is when Bitcoin crashed to those tariff capitulation lows, it formed a little bit of a range in 2025. And within this range, you can see here that another confluence zone is met. And that is the point of control of that existing range, which is found right at around $84,300.

[00:11:34]So, if Bitcoin is to crawl up a little bit higher, please keep your eyes on that 83 to 85K zone. It is a big confluence zone. There's a lot of longs in the market. And in my opinion, as I've said time and time again, I think that these longs could get flushed out sooner than most people are willing to admit. From a timebased perspective, I don't think that the low is necessarily in for Bitcoin. Now, what else did I want to cover? You can see that open interest has been absolutely skyrocketing on this rally, similar to bare market relief rallies. And we also have the fact that Michael Sailor is going to potentially be selling some Bitcoin. Now, I'm not spreading FUD because he's came out several times saying things like, "Sell a kidney if you must, but keep the Bitcoin. Never sell your Bitcoin. The rules of Bitcoin, buy Bitcoin, don't sell the Bitcoin."

[00:12:26]Meanwhile, during his shareholder meeting, he said, "We will probably sell some Bitcoin to pay a dividend, just to inoculate the market, just to send the message that we did it." Now, I did cover this in my previous video, but I wanted to cover it again just in case you missed it because this guy is trying to own at least 5% of the total Bitcoin supply. So, it's definitely something you want to consider if he starts potentially selling some Bitcoin. That would be disastrous in my opinion because his average entry for Bitcoin despite being in the industry for years is around $76,000 and right now Bitcoin is at 80K. You would hope that he would hold for a little bit more of a profit than that.

[00:13:05]But let's see how the price action develops. And late last night, President Trump also came out and released a statement saying that the stock market is hitting record highs. I mean, he's not wrong. All-time high today. Jobs and 401ks are booming. And in my opinion, if the stock market continues to rally, then of course, Bitcoin may continue to catch a bid. But overall, you would expect Bitcoin to outperform the stock market. And at this point in time, from around this 65K level to where Bitcoin went yesterday, it was approximately a 27% rally. Now, the stock market had a very similar type of rally. You would have hoped that Bitcoin could have done a little bit more if you are a Bitcoin bull at this point in the bare market.

[00:13:50]The stock market basically did a 17% rally. So, here's the thing. If the stock market does a 17% rally, historically, you would hope for Bitcoin to do a 40 to 50% rally. So, is Bitcoin just lagging behind? Will it catch a bid? Or is there something else under the hood? Is Bitcoin going to potentially get rejected from around this key zone before pivoting lower into the bare market into the summer where we typically see weakness for the crypto market? And that sums up today's quick video. Is the Bitcoin rally just getting started or are we about to top out? If you enjoy the content, make sure to smash that like button and subscribe. As always, I have my bluffin leverage trading tutorial right here.