May 6, 2026: ECMWF Targets Historic El Niño | Snow in CO, then 70s… | Rain East (needed) | Late May

Added: 2026-05-13

[00:00:00]Well, good morning everybody. You know, as we start this video, I just want to give you a quick heads up if you just want to fast forward to the new discussion about the long range content because the new European model came out yesterday right after Matt finished his uh recording and it's still predicting a powerful Elino. Just slide down here toward the end and you'll be able to kind of just see that presentation. But in the meantime, I want to cover some important things going on in the near term here. First map you've been looking at is the May just up to this point in May uh temperature ranks by climate district. And it just represents such a a massive change over what we saw uh in March and in April with a reorientation of the jetream, a big ridge that built into an Omega block across the West. And that's what's driven in some extremely hot temperatures for this time of year uh into the Pacific Northwest. And as a result, deeper lows have been forming here and behind them, high pressures come in, creating fronts. There's one this morning that's lingering right here over parts of Colorado, uh producing some snow, which we talked about. and later on it's going to press farther into the south and increases severe weather risk across an area that for most of March and April did not see uh much severe weather. So, we're going to dig into that. But just look at these statistics. I mean, look how much this has changed over what we saw in the month of April especially. All right, let's zoom in here on our uh radar viewer and we can see this is colorcoded according to precipitation intensity and also type and right along the Palmer divide. Uh we are watching for um some heavier snow. appreciate all of you the other day in the comments telling to remind me I I just couldn't remember the name of this geographic feature. I should, but I'm a flatlander. I'm way over here in Illinois, so I often forget these things, but you know, you definitely can see the snow coming in here this morning and locally very very heavy uh into parts of Colorado. Now, this is the forecast uh released by the National Weather Service uh early this or no, late late last night. So, they're going to update this, I'm assuming, here in a little while, but it's still quite early um in Mountain Standard Time. And as you look at it, they have the lowend amounts here generally along that divide. You know, 2 to three inches of snow. So, this is of course snowing in Denver right now, but look at these snowfall totals that are up into the mountains. And this is the lower end and and this is the chance of higher end.

[00:02:06]So, we do have this possibility of a pretty significant event here. We'll need to wait and see what the totals look like as we go forward because as of the data, you know, that was available late last night. Yes, we saw the mountain snows here, but we've not yet, you know, this was valid 6:00 last night. So, so we did not have um you know, we didn't have the snow from the overnight in this map just yet. But, you know, if we end up getting over 2 feet of snow into this area, this is like mission critical to this area. And I'm going to show you why. We've not talked about this for several weeks uh simply because of how warm the the um March and April were and how much snow melted. But I just want to show you kind of have a look here at our basin average snow water maps and we're still take a look at this. These values here sitting in the 60 to 90% ranges. I mean that that that's better than not. That's that means there's still some snow in the mountains here farther to the south. In fact, let's get over to parts of of Colorado here. Kind of click on a few different basins like the lower green.

[00:03:05]Uh you can still see we're pretty low here. If you click on the headwater uh excuse me, this is the upper Colorado Dolores. Uh just have a look uh at the data. You know, we're way down here uh compared historical averages. So just as a reminder, you know, we would be here with a peak some point in probably very early April there. And where were we this year? You know, way down here at the bottom of this distribution. And so we're just continuing to monitor these.

[00:03:31]Um there's the Colorado River headarters. Let's just have a quick look at it. So, we could we could be seeing this bump up just a little bit more here after what had been such an historically low, you know, uh, peak of the season.

[00:03:44]So, again, that's March and into April.

[00:03:46]So, any snow we're getting into this area is is critical and I'm I'm excited to see it and and just it's just water.

[00:03:52]We need to have the water resources, you know, draining through the Colorado Basin and all of these key rivers uh across the western states. All right. If we zoom in on what's happening uh last night, this is kind of fun. Looking at the the presentation on um satellite, I just noticed a couple of fun things about this. Um you can see, look at this dense cloud layer moving in part the parts of the central valley of California. And just take a look. It's coming on the back side of a bigger low that's spinning here. So, this is kind of moving out of the north and east, this cloud field is. But I'm mostly interested in this. And I'm going to tell you why. Here's the big sagging front that is going to be driving itself into the south uh today. But this is something we're going to have to get a lot more familiar with. That's a piece of the subtropical jetream. And that subtropical jet is going to be racing over the top later today of the front that undercuts it. And that's one of the reasons why we're seeing the risk of strong to severe storms today that could of course rotate. You've got plenty of shear in the environment. And I think that's what's going to make this a possibility. There's also another interesting thing. Uh it's it's just subtle, but if you look right down here coming off of the coastal plane of you know the Carolinas down right there by Savannah and cutting in to Florida, you can actually watch um you know the seabbze pushing the cloud field farther and farther in. I always like watching those little features on satellite. But anyways, yes, look at the convection popping off the mountains in Arizona, New Mexico. This is all just spurred along by this and the front that's undercutting it. Now, why I'm so interested in this is that over the next nine months, the subtropical jester is going to wake up in a big way, and that's of course related to El Nino.

[00:05:33]But, uh, what we're going to watch for is the reorientation of this, especially as we get later in the season to do two things. In late summer, early fall, it's going to increase the windshare across the tropics. And that tends to suppress the maximum potential of tropical systems. It also tends to hinder their early development. Uh then as we get into winter, the likely scenario is that this comes across the country like this.

[00:05:57]It's going to flood more of North America with mild air. It's also going to probably split the country south of that line to be wetter all winter long, north of it to be drier. That's just a typical El Nino setup. So we are going to be just patiently watching where the subtropical jet goes in the coming days and weeks. Now today, one of its influences is going to be the severe weather threat. So, we've kind of honed in here on what's happening down from the Mississippi River over into parts, well, starting in Texas going all the way to to Georgia almost to Atlanta.

[00:06:25]There's a big slight risk, but in terms of categories, we're looking at the the tornado risk, especially in parts of Mississippi, which just a few weeks ago was clobbered with a bunch of severe weather and hail, very heavy rainfall causing flooding. Uh, then that's this now extends over to Alabama. Uh, the risk of the strong straight line winds is less in this case. I'll show you why when you look at the radar presentation of this in a moment, but there is risk of hail stretching from eastern Texas into Mississippi, too. And these hatchings indicate greater risk of those larger hail events coming through. Now, to see it, I'm going to show you the lower Mississippi River Valley view of our HER presentation. This is a simulation of radar data, but don't forget it's going to have contours looking at updraft over values that tend to indicate rotating storms. So, this is this morning and I'm going to talk more about this rain getting into the parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast in a moment here. But as we play this forward, just take note as we go through the middle of today, getting into this evening, you know, the the main frontal boundary could be lingering on the back side of this, but there are a lot of individual cells in the uh radar forecast by the HER model late this afternoon and this evening. And this just continues into multiple rounds. So, do you see how the model by 10:00 hasn't organized all of this into one, you know, large front with a big squall line that just sweeps through? It's it's got more individual cellular behavior.

[00:07:51]You're going to have multiple rounds of thunderstorms in this area today, excuse me, all the way through this evening before the front finally clears and pushes everything out. And this is going to be bringing rain to the Carolinas, which have been very dry. Georgia, which desperately needs this rain, especially farther to the south. And what I'm watching most carefully, I mean, this is this is some key growing area in southern Georgia. All right. And we're going to have to wait for that frontal boundary to slide enough to push that rain down toward the Georgia Florida line there. But that's the current presentation we've got uh from the high resolution rapid refresh model. Let me go ahead and show you though how much total precipitation some of our high-res models are getting out of this. And as we play out the NAM during that time frame, it is less aggressive on the return of that moisture into this area, which I I I do need to see that because, you know, I'm I'm concerned about how much is left over from these storms when they could be putting down inches of rain, several inches of rain in parts of Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, and South Carolina. It's just can they get that moisture down farther to the south uh into Georgia? We're going to keep an eye on that. Uh tell you what, let's come back to that in a second. I do want to show you the rest of the country though. So, let's just we'll stick with the NAM because watch this rain spread into the north and east as well. And we need this rain in the Mid-Atlantic. We need it in the north and east. We we got to get some moisture back into these areas which have been so very dry. Now, with all that being said, we're going to come back to these broader areas around the rest of the country in a moment, but I wanted to show you something. Uh maybe you've been to our website and a couple of times throughout the day, we've been getting what are called 503 errors. Uh it's a good problem that we're having. There's actually so many of you on the website that it uh outdid the resources on our main web server. So we've been changing some things around to make it way more efficient and cleaning up some old technical debt. And so I decided to release um to help us out with some of the maps what's called an MRMS light. So you know there's the pro tool that can show you MRS data going back several years plus hail plus all this other kind of stuff from severe weather reports. I just made a light one that'll run easily on the website that's outside of the pro tools. And now what you can do is you can look at the radar presentation of hail which is this color shading. You can take that off and just look at total preip as well. So instead of having dozens and dozens of maps, we just have one presenter like this. And we can see as you scroll in and hover, you can see you know different values of total precipitation. So I want you to use this. I still have the static maps though below it as you come down here of our typical what we call AHPS data and I'm going to look at that real quickly with you because over the last seven days, you know why I stress the importance of this rain coming through here is look how dry we've been in pockets of West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, sections of North Carolina and Virginia that continue to miss while there's better rain south and east. You know, this is just the last seven days, and it's very good to see the drier weather across parts of the upper Midwest, which has been just absolutely soaked this spring, including getting into Michigan. Now, we're not done with rainfall, but there is a drier signal in this area going into the near term. But as you slide farther to the south, I mean, there are pockets of the panhandles, which were forecast to have rain that missed. Same thing for parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. And in the west is the ridge built in. It's only been that little cutoff low at the bottom side of that omega block that made it in driving some of the rainfall into this area. Outside of that, very hot and very dry in the Pacific Northwest. Let's go back 30 days just to show you the expansiveness of how dry this region has been and also what's going on in the plains and southwest. And then going back 60 days really just illustrates the true depth of this drought in this region. Okay, this has just been one of our dest places compared to historical averages where the percentages when you look at percent of normal are down in the single digits, but it's key to get these rains farther to the east as well as we just saw in that radar presentation. Now, in the upper Midwest, yes, we're still in like record setting territory with spring rains and this has made some major delays in planting crops, especially with the cold weather that's in place now. Uh but the question is are we going to are we going to see anything different as we progress through May. So yes there is a lot of improved rainfall chances in the near term here. Why the Bermuda high which had been so expansive is much much much weaker but there is I still continue to see it and Matt reinforced it yesterday.

[00:12:19]There is reason to believe with that subtropical jet that I just mentioned that we could be developing troughs of low pressure that kind of come from this part of the Pacific Ocean over which the waters are very warm which means we're evaporating a lot of moisture into the atmosphere and we could get flow kind of coming around troughs in this area as we progress farther and farther into the month of May and then get into June which I think is going to wake this up about a month and a half late to your typical spring severe other pattern. And I'm going to I'll back that up with what I think, but I'm I I it's difficult just my typical inonation to tell you how skeptical I am of it. I I'm not I'm not even sold on my own ideas here with respect to what could happen in the planes. So, just understand that. But there are at least some signals uh in this region. Okay. All right. From there, let's just look at the next seven days. And this is what the new European uh operational run says in terms of precipitation anomalies over the next seven days. I just want to be careful because I show these maps a lot on the website. I look at them a lot. I don't know about you, but my brain just tends to turn it into a binary yes or no map.

[00:13:27]I'm like, okay, you know, super wet here and there and nothing here. And that that's not true. Now, there's going to be some places like I think maybe around Kansas City that are going to be very dry and maybe parts of Iowa that are and maybe down here into Oklahoma very dry.

[00:13:42]We're going to open up the windows. It will warm up after Mother's Day in this region. Uh but I want you to understand there's still moisture there. Into week two, this is the ensemble forecast. Just take note that yes, I said there's a little bit of a drier go, but some of the models are increasing the chances of moisture here. And what I want to be watching for longer range is do we keep Pacific Northwest drier but start to see these green shades opening up more and more moisture into this area the farther we go into the uh month of May because this is week two which takes us all the way out there to um well it says May 20th but it's going to be that's the middle of the window. So we're looking out there um farther no excuse me that's the end of the window May 20th. Okay, so just to rehash this, you know, I showed you this and I said, "Ah, you know, look, it's so dry, but over the next, you know, 15 days in the model, you know, yes, there is our heavier precipitation. You can see the boundary." And yeah, we could be really dry in through here and very dry, like I said, around Kansas City, but this is not a no precipitation setup. So, just wanted to be careful with that as we think through this. Now, let's get into some of the details here. Let's blow this back up a little bit. the new European model forecast, the ensemble.

[00:15:01]We're trying to watch how long it keeps, you know, this look. Ah, sorry. Try that again. This look alive with this deeper trough sitting here pumping in waves around the backside that keep driving in one precipitation chances south and east into the colder air. Well, that's through Thursday getting into the weekend now. And what I'm starting to notice is that even right there on Mother's Day, we are opening this back up to some warmth. In fact, where it's snowing today, you know, in Colorado, tomorrow, and we're talking temperatures that are maybe 30 to 40 degrees warmer than they are today. So, it's it's going to melt fast. But, as I noticed, Monday into Tuesday of next week, we we just start to see that deeper trough in the model wash out. And that's why I think after Mother's Day, the spot that holds on to the coldest air the longest is going to be parts of Ontario, eastern Great Lakes, Quebec, maybe the Northeast. And much warmer air begins to flood into the country here as we get out past or toward the middle of the month and then past it. So keep that idea in mind because later I want to know where this ridge goes. And the farther east it goes, the more the chances are of opening up severe weather and storms into the midsection of the country. All right, now let's get into an actual operational model run. We're going to pick it up with the European.

[00:16:19]So, we've already seen through Wednesday, the heavy rain, severe weather here getting into Thursday, the front clears. The European model does bring that rain down into parts of southern Georgia, which is needed. And we play this out. There's Friday getting into Saturday. Now, you know what you're watching, right? We're just keeping an eye on the broader trough here. That's the most dominant feature. And so, Saturday into Sunday, this is on Mother's Day. So, this is I'm not going to tell my wife this just yet, but the soccer club that I help coach, they decided to have league games. I don't know why they did this on Mother's Day over in Springfield. So, I'm going to be hauling her over there to sit outside in the rain possibly uh for for my son to play soccer. And he better he better make sure he says something nice to her all day long because this is not going to be pleasant. But yes, there's there's a system coming through partly on the back side of the trough and there's still the flow to the south which is promoting the rain here. Okay, that's Mother's Day midday. Let's get through the afternoon into the evening. That spreads east. See it? And a low develops over the Mid-Atlantic. I love this. I just got to get rain into this area in the overnight uh into early Monday morning. All right. Now, after that, okay, there's one last little clipper I think that sneaks through here on the back side of that low and then we just start to see a little bit different presentation of things and stuff starts coming out of the south and west eventually. And that change over to the south and west which I I think is going to happen past the 15th 16th means that all this stuff see it finally goes away and it's just going to keep well goes east which means it keeps moving here versus starting here and coming through and I think that's what's going to be key to this whole pattern changing up.

[00:18:00]So we've already seen total precipitation.

[00:18:03]Um I tell you what I'll come back to this in a moment if I want to show you some other factors but let's just get into probabilities here. This is the 10day chance at staying under a half of an inch. And so our wetest areas are in white. So this is going on now. You've seen what's going on in the south. We still have systems though that are kind of east of that line bringing in more moisture. But where the ridging is most persistent, very dry throughout the west. No cutoff lows that I saw in the near term like we saw last week coming into California. So we're going to be relatively dry. Now the week 2 forecast maps. Okay, you see it's a lot of southern tier in the CPC, drier in the northwest. And that's actually in all three of our major models. But the European, notice how it's trying to wake something up here into week two. The AI model's a little farther to the south and east, but the GFS has something similar out into that week 2 time frame.

[00:19:00]And I think what the models are trying to pick up on is really going to be found in this shift over in temperatures. So about 6:05 this morning as I'm recording this, we've got the freeze warnings out for places here.

[00:19:09]Winter storm warnings in the mountains, frost advisories, frost watches, all this cold air with our flooding issues down south, which we're going to watch very carefully today. If you take a look at these temperatures, though, this is again about 6:00 a.m. We can pretty easily find that frost line again this morning. That's a lot of Nebraska and Iowa, some pockets of northern Illinois, Wisconsin, and these areas. There's been spots in here that have been planted that have now had multiple frosts since the start of this new month, which is going to be, I think, damaging to some of the crop that probably jumped out of the ground on on the heat from April.

[00:19:41]So, all the heat is way down south, though. Right now, we're at 6 a.m. where we're deep into the 70s in Texas and Louisiana. And that's what's going to set us up with instability for these severe storms. If we have a look at what the temperatures are going to do, this is just amazing. Watch. Here's the high temperatures today. So, we're, you know, what are we? We're we're approaching my goodness uh 30° colder than normal.

[00:20:04]That's today. And these are the high temperatures tomorrow. 70 64. I mean, look at these temperatures change. The cooler air moves east. That's by Friday into Saturday. And with that rain coming through, at least it's not going to be miserably cold in this area. The colder air is up to the north as the next wave comes around um you know, the backside of the trough that's living in mainly near the Hudson Bay. That's Sunday, Monday. I mean, I I'm not giving this enough attention. Look at the heat out west. Let's go back. Thursday, Friday, Saturday. Now, watch Sunday. We've got temperatures there that are 20 to 35 degrees warmer than normal. And that's on Sunday, Mother's Day, opening up to the Snake River Valley. So much of the Great Basin, getting off of the Rocky Mountains here. So, snow now next Monday, 85, well, 91 next Tuesday if you're in the Front Range. And we're getting deep summer heat returning to this area before I'm hoping to open this up to more storms, which means this is something we've got to watch very carefully as we get these very hot temperatures back into place and the east is the last hold out for the cooler weather. So major major heat coming in at this time. Okay. Uh larger view. This is now going out two weeks. So today, Thursday, Friday, Saturday. Now, watch the next round of cold coming into the upper Midwest on Mother's Day while the heat is out west. Look at that heat spreading on Monday into Tuesday. And by the time we get past Tuesday, I think, watch the Northeast is our last hold out. That's Friday the 15th, Saturday the 16th, 17th, 18th. I think it's just going to be through here that keeps the cooler weather in place as we start to see more routine warmer weather across these areas. Now into week two, the climate prediction center does have this area already identified which I mentioned of having, you know, the risk of very hot temperatures. But don't forget the heat is coming into the central plains here before that. That's that's I mean, let's go back to it and have a quick look. That's the May 12th.

[00:22:05]So we're looking after that, sorry, at all of this heat down farther to the south and our last cold here. All right.

[00:22:14]Now, they're also concerned about it being windy during that time frame. And that again, 13th to the 19th, specifically the 13th and 14th. And I'm watching some of the models to see when and if that wind's coming through. So, we just play this out. This gets you through um let's just go out there may maybe past Mother's Day. Thankfully, we're not seeing too crazy wind. And by the way, I'm working on my new April wind stats. I'll present those to you on Friday um once the data are fully in.

[00:22:40]But just take a look at this. That That's not bad. We're not looking at terrible winds across broad geographies through Mother's Day, but we will watch the front range. But then as we get out there, this is Monday into Tuesday. You can see strong winds coming through the northern plains. And again, we're concerned about this region really beginning to see an increase in wind speed with all that heat. You combine very hot temperatures with high winds and now we have high evaporation rates, which is going to be a fire threat at that particular point. All right, where do we go from here? Now, I keep mentioning this trough, and Matt talked about it yesterday in depth, and there's this signal once we get out toward the end of May that we start to see the high contours doing that. See that? That southwest flow. That's that subtropical jet possibly influencing this. And if we can move the heat east with the ridge, drop the colder air out farther to the Atlantic, we will open this area up to better chances of storms. And you can start to see it on the global presentation of precipitation. Again, waking this area up later into the into the forecast. Now, very quickly, just want to point out some things over the next uh you know, couple of weeks. We're still very dry in parts of Brazil, but I don't I still don't know that this is causing any sort of a stir in the markets. I put that in a report on Monday um that just goes out via email.

[00:24:00]Even though we've been drier lately, I just don't have evidence that it caused large-scale problems. This would be amazing if we could get this rain to come into this here in Australia, which has been so very, very dry. We're seeing a pretty sizable shift in the MJO going back to phase 7. And then that would be key during that transition to get us some rain into this region. It's been actually quite cool and wet throughout much of spring around Ukraine, the Black Sea, into the Russian wheat belt. And I've heard some news that this is kind of slowing some things down. Much cooler than average and very wet. And you can see out here as we work our way toward the end of May that they're still drier as well. But big news. I mean, we're going to have to watch this region and this region and this region carefully going into summer. They are all kind of wet right now, but we're expecting all of them to go over very dry once we get into summer and this full-on El Nino develops. So, back home real quick. I do want to make note that the more of this cooler weather I see here, the more I think that these troughs are going to start to come through and eject over the mountains into heat and instability and wake this up. This is our last hold out for cooler weather. I think that is the case. It seems to be seems to make a lot of sense. But now, let's just go over and look at the precipitation. Uh whoops. I want to keep this actually want to keep it on the GFS. Let's do the 30 days. Okay. Right. That's through June 4th.

[00:25:28]Can you kind of see how we've eroded this going into, you know, more of June and starting to see that? Yeah. I I I don't know, folks. I'm skeptical of my own forecast here. Like I said, what about the European? Well, that's due June 9th.

[00:25:42]It's not really showing it. But I'm telling you, these models are just so stuck on persistence.

[00:25:49]I don't know. I Why am I thinking it?

[00:25:51]Okay, momentum is already building where? 20 to 40° north. See it? Much greater momentum than over the historical averages. That's a subtropical jet. We see that global momentum is all above board. And the global wind oscillation is all above the zero line, which means we've got more ability to get troughs rolling through the northern hemisphere than than ridges. And so I I just think the pattern's waking up. And then Matt showed you this yesterday, but we typically find that if we get ourselves back into the MGO phase 7, well, at some point in June, we we get troughs here more often than not when there is an El Nino, and that's what could wake this up, pushing the colder air out into the Atlantic, allowing warmth to return and getting the flow going. What I don't like about this is how bone dry it's going to be in the Northwest.

[00:26:42]So all of this this whole presentation where I think this pattern is going to shift is because of what we know going on with um you know El Nino and the El Nino nature to this is to just shove the MJO rapidly back over into the Pacific Ocean and that that's what we're seeing it do.

[00:27:01]So that that's that whole idea like hey boom we're going to go back over to that phase seven look now all it's all speculative but it's what I think could happen as we transition through the month of May. Now I'm also basing that off of this. We are watching an El Nino develop. We think it's going to be east base which means the greatest ocean temperature anomalies are going to be here. That's going to be colloccated with some of the deeper convection. And guess what happened in May, June and July? We woke this area up. We were a bit drier south and drier Ohio Valley, a bit drier. I didn't say dry, but a bit drier. That could be the pattern we see evolve in late May into early June. And as I said, watch for the dryness to return here and here. And you'll see it in parts of China in just a few moments.

[00:27:46]Now, again, what what am I basing this on? Well, we got the new European model data out. And holy cow, I mean, the European model is swinging for the fences. Now, yes, you're going to hear a lot of skeptical view of this, but the likelihood of us having a strong El Nino is very high. Do we get up here into this territory where the temperatures are above 2 and a half degrees C, cracking 3° C, which I've labeled as historic, that would be an historically strong El Nino event. But you keep hearing me talking about this being an eastbased El Nino event. And Nino region 3.4, you know, just to show you, I'll That's not a good map to draw it on.

[00:28:23]Let's just bring this up. Current nino region 3.4 is about right here and region three is there and need region 1 plus two is here. So three I'll just put the number one but it's one and two and this is 3.4. Okay. Now we always look right here. But you got to understand this El Nino is going to have those warm water surfacing over Nino region three.

[00:28:47]And I bring all that up because this is what you just saw. I just color coded it for you. Look at Nino region uh 3. These ocean temperatures, I mean like the ensemble average is settling on 3° C.

[00:28:59]That's the eastbased nature of this upcoming El Nino event. And if you watch it, here's May's ocean temperatures.

[00:29:06]June, July, August, September, October.

[00:29:10]Where are where's the greatest heating?

[00:29:12]It's primarily there, but this is a big one. It extends out. We got the positive IOD, the positive PMM. There's no signal that really cold water is going to show up in the Gulf of Alaska. And so let's just see what the model's doing with it.

[00:29:25]Uh let's switch over. Let's go to precipitation. We'll do seasonal. Let's bring you back to uh May, June, July.

[00:29:32]All right. May, June, July. See how it's waking this area up. Wetter to the south. Maybe drier through Canada, drier in the Northwest. But we're going to see these regions going drier soon. Same thing for a lot of Australia. Let's go forward. This is now June, July, August.

[00:29:51]This just pause it. Look at it carefully. This is uh July, August, September.

[00:29:57]This is a problem.

[00:30:00]That could be an issue. This is a huge problem. Look at the Caribbean. Look at how we're not anticipating any sort of a rapid ramp up to the hurricane season. And there's the kind of the heart of hurricane season, August, September, October. And the models are definitely pushing more of this into the North Atlantic versus the main development region into the Caribbean. But this is a worrisome note and so is that. Now that was our kind of global presentation. Let's come into the US since most of you are viewing from there. All right. June, July, August. Is the model telling us anything? No.

[00:30:34]I mean, what is that? It's a checkerboard of of precipitation intensities, which means the model is kind of indecisive on where this is going to be. What I'm concerned about is the new run tried to go drier in a bigger area in the upper Midwest July, August, September.

[00:30:51]And this doesn't make sense to me because most historically eastbased El Ninos, they were drier south and stormy in through here. And I presented that to you on Monday when I showed you that uh animation from the Japanese Meteorological Association, the JMA. You saw that. So I look at all of it and I'm like, "Okay, what's the deal here?" here. And then I remembered that the NME which was has not been released. This is the old run was also dry in this corridor for June, July, August.

[00:31:21]And I'm just going to tell you something. All of these models last year predicted mega droughts that didn't happen. So if you're saying, "Well, Eric, what do you think right now?"

[00:31:31]Remembering that I am unsettled with this. I don't know. I I got to see more of May to figure this out. These analoges are what makes way more sense to me than anything.

[00:31:42]So, I have to I have to go with that on this forecast. Now, Matt and I are going to continue to analyze this and we just need it just takes time. We got to sit here and dig through this. And in the meantime, we're trying to build you guys some really cool stuff. I I'm super pumped on what I worked on last night and this morning. I can't wait to release this stuff for you. But, um, I'm going to leave it here because this is where my brain is settled this morning.

[00:32:04]We'll just keep watching it, keep putting ideas together, and then watching the pattern fold together.

[00:32:08]Okay. I appreciate your attention. Have a good rest of your day. We'll talk again on Friday. Matt will pick it up tomorrow.