Trump Promised an Iran Deal. Here's What We Got!

[00:00:00]Hi, my name is Phil. I like to talk about politics. So, the US and Iran have finally agreed to some sort of deal which should see shipping open up again in the Gulf and Gulf States not have to worry about missiles targeting their production sites. This time, Iran have also agreed that yes, a deal has been reached, which is the main reason why I'm believing it because Trump has been claiming that a deal has been reached for months now. At the point at which I'm recording this, Brent crude oil is getting down to where it was before the start of the war. It's not quite there yet. The war is believed to have knocked 0.6% off the global GDP as far as I can tell and global inflation expected to hit 4% where it was 3.3% last year and last year was the year of the Trump tariffs. The war has also damaged relations between the Gulf States and the United States as well as further worsened them between Europe and the United States. It has also empowered the most evil faction within the Iranian command structure. Because let's not pretend that any faction was innocent here. The only innocents in this war with the civilian populations being battered in various countries as well as the people all over the world suffering the fallout including in some of the poorest country where food shortages could really become acute because of this war. But all three of the governments involved are all evil.

[00:01:20]Within Iran there are some reasonable sympathetic factions. They have found themselves weakened. And the emboldened faction is the one which wants to wage war across the Middle East, set fire to the entire region. They now feel more secure, which means we may well see more death and destruction coming the way of the Middle East. Remember that the deal was agreed despite Israel breaching the terms of the ceasefire and Trump effing and blinding at the Israeli government.

[00:01:48]That didn't seem to sc the deal, which suggests that the deal accepts this understanding that Iran and America will leave each other alone. But hostilities between Israel and Iran along with the various proxies will continue to destabilize the region. Finally, because the US has burned through so much ordinance that they've had to tell defense customers in Asia and Europe that there will be delays of literal years for orders being delivered.

[00:02:14]America has exposed the fact it cannot actually afford to wage a protracted war. Remember, the fake ceasefire lasted longer than the open war phase of this nonsense. So basically what I'm saying is there has been a high cost to this war. It's been expensive. But what did that expense buy? Absolutely bogall. The Iranian regime is not only still in place, but the worst part of it is now more in control. There is no nuclear deal. And even if one emerges, I'm not saying one won't emerge. That is still not a win because Iran were believed to be close to a deal before the war. We could have actually had it by now.

[00:02:51]According to people involved in the talks, there are now sea mines in the straight of Hum. So even if shipping is not threatened by blockades or drone attack, right, those mines will presumably restrict the flow of shipping until they're all cleared out, which is expected to take months. And although oil prices are down to comfortable levels again, the actual supply will take time to build up. So when we personally see those prices back down again, I do not know. Remember, some facilities were damaged. it will take years to fully repair all the facilities. Frankly, if you want to try and pick this turd up by the clean end, the best you could do is say, "Well, at least more governments now seem to have greater resolve to transition to carbon-f free energy and industry." Iran are claiming to their own people that they have won a victory. Well, given that it's not clear that they've had to concede anything that they weren't willing to concede before the war and that their military objective was simply survival, it's hard to argue against their claim. Trump is also claiming victory, of course, but what is he claiming to have won? As far as I can tell, he's claiming the fact that the straight of Hamos will soon open is the win.

[00:04:01]It was open before the war. The White House and Defense Secretary have claimed swift victory on the battlefield. But what were the spoils of this victory?

[00:04:11]They they don't seem to be offering anything. They're a bit tight lipped on that. In fact, even Trump's claim that the Strait of Hamas will open again, that's not guaranteed. Even though Iran say a deal has been reached, it doesn't mean it won't all collapse. Remember, there was a deal last month. The Straight of Ham was open. Ships were passing through. Then Trump refused to lift his own blockade, so Iran reimposed theirs. This is because it turned out that there was a misunderstanding between the two sides as to what the interim deal meant. Well, who's to say there isn't a misunderstanding with this latest deal. Until there is a public consensus between the two sides as to what exactly has been agreed and we see it in operation, we can't be fully sure that a deal has actually been reached, even if both sides genuinely think it has. Trump is not a details kind of person and the lack of direct communication between the two doesn't help. Remember it's been Pakistan doing all the leg work here. I saw in one report Robert Kagan who worked in the State Department under Ronald Reagan who was no stranger to foreign misadventures that Trump didn't merely fail to accomplish his goals, he actually harmed American interests. He said the US is objectively worse off than before we started the war. Iran has got an international sanction to charge tolls and control passage through the strait.

[00:05:29]Iran will use this to insist on sanction relief from any nation that wishes to use the strait. It will be backed in this by Russia and China. Iran has not conceded enrichment. I don't see how Trump stops Russia and China from replenishing Iran's weapons supply. The fact we are negotiating on the basis of Iran's 10point plan is a sure sign of defeat.

[00:05:53]So that's the assessment of someone who's been involved in geopolitical strategy at the highest level in his country. Absolutely damning. Not that we really need this assessment because the fact that Trump's government cannot point to a tangible achievement is evidence enough that the US won nothing and they know it. The bottom line is this. Yes, Iran has suffered from this war. The economic problems which caused the protests are now made worse. But Iran are likely to end up with tangible gains. They will. as Kagan suggests, end up with sanctions relief and what's more more sanctions relief than a peaceful nuclear deal would have won them. I suspect I talked about how the war had worsened relations between America and both the Gulf States and Europe. But personal relations between both Trump and Netanyahu have also worsened. Trump is now literally shouting and swearing at Netanyahu on the regular. This doesn't seem to have translated itself into any robust policy against Israel's military excesses, but it's not good news for the Israeli government. If this really is the beginning of the end now, and that is still a big if, as I say, then it is an ill wind which has really blown nobody any good, but has humiliated America on the world stage.

[00:07:05]The only champagne corks popping today will be in Moscow, Beijing, and Tyran, although probably non-alcoholic champagne in the latter. What do you think? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Please subscribe to the channel for more content. Click the bell notification icon so you know when new videos are out. Thanks for watching and until next time, I'll see you later.