NASCAR BETTING ODDS: Naval Base Coronado Through the Gears with Michael Bellifemini

[00:00:06]Hello everybody and welcome in to Through the Gears. I am Michael Bowles family of frontstretch.com and getting ready for the Race the Base or Racing the Base this weekend, massive weekend in NASCAR, historic weekend it out on Naval Base Coronado in San Diego for the Enduro 250 for the Cup Series truck race just started as a recording this. Um big weekend all three series going on and we'll take you through all you need to know with the Cup Series betting lines for Sunday's race and it is courtesy of DraftKings and I wasn't on Through the Gears last weekend because I was at Pocono covering it for Front Stretch but um I'm pretty sure that Denny Hamlin was the odds-on favorite so he once again uh nails that one. He's been seems like he's been the odds-on favorite every week uh last few weeks picking up these wins and he got another one at Pocono last Sunday. Saw that live uh great performance from him but that streak is over uh cuz we are at a road course and Denny Hamlin knew it. Uh he said that as a joke in the presser last week but um seems like more of the same for who the favorite's going to be at San Diego for the Naval Base race. Um there's only been one or there's been two actually two road courses this year. Tyler Reddick won at COTA and Shane van Gisbergen won at Watkins Glen in May and Watkins and he is the favorite. SVG is the favorite and I saw a comment from him today. Um first uh day of press at San Diego and he was kind of surprised and he kind of it it seemed like he kind of felt bad that he was the odds-on favorite again because it kind of seemed like disrespect I think he said or he wasn't respecting the his competitors but I mean when you look at what he's done in such a short time on road courses in his NASCAR Cup Series career taking it from Supercars down under. He's a had a massive road course winning streak, and it seems like even though we're all at a blank slate here in San Diego, no one's had track time, you just feel like from his background, he's going to to be able to hit the ground running. I think he said the way the course is laid out, it's going to be hard to put up put down a perfect lap, so I'm sure that, you know, um the way your car handles, the way it's prepped is going to put a lot into it, but Trackhouse and 97th especially seems that they are going to have things, um uh dialed in, and he was not the fastest in practice. He was eighth fastest. Kyle Larson was the fastest cuz uh with this weekend, kind of a weird schedule how Cup practice today but not qualifying, qualifying's tomorrow. But Kyle Larson put down the fastest lap, and uh SVG's was eighth fastest. His teammate Connor Zilisch was fourth fastest. We'll get to him a little bit later, but uh with the way SVG's been able to do, it's no surprise that he is the odds-on favorite, but um Kyle Larson has won on road courses before in his career. I believe he's won some in the Next Gen car, uh especially since he's gotten into that five car, that's when his road course uh wins have come through. Um I remember if I remember correctly, I think he's maybe won on the road, I think he's won at Watkins Glen, so uh he's definitely been able to do it, but he is on a long winless streak still.

[00:03:20]Uh it's been over a year now since his last win back at Kansas last year, but he did win that championship. still running well. He led laps at Pocono last week. Started on the front row with Denny Hamlin, but uh and still brought home a top five. So, he's going to have a good qualifying metric. So, I would expect Larson to be in the mix, but uh we talked about SVG and what he's been able to do on road courses, but talking about the other road course winner this year and just slightly the points leader now, leading the whole year is Tyler Reddick. And it's kind of a surprise, but it is a long season that everyone's like, "Wow, I can't believe that Denny Hamlin closed the gap." But what he's been able to do matched what Reddick did earlier in the year. Winning three straight races is huge. Winning's that much more important with this new format. And Tyler Reddick, four wins on the year, uh five wins on the year, four career wins on road courses. He won He's won twice at COTA in the 45. That's the only track that he's won on in the 45 car because he won two races in 2022 in the eight car on road courses at Road America.

[00:04:20]That was his first career win, then he won at Indianapolis when they still ran the road course. Um so, Tyler Reddick still trying to win on some other road courses with this 45 car, but I definitely think he has a great shot at it. Um cuz he's going to have a great metric as well. He finished second last weekend at Pocono. I think if he had about five more laps, he could have been able to get to Denny Hamlin and challenge him for the win.

[00:04:42]But he knows that the the pressure's on that Denny Hamlin is now just under 20 points behind him. So, Tyler Reddick's got to get back going here. Two straight road courses coming up could help him out cuz Denny Hamlin isn't the best at at road courses as we said, but uh Tyler Reddick definitely has been one of the best uh in recent memory even though he hasn't been able to win, but uh he's right up there. He's I think he's had some good runs at Chicago and then the natural road courses Watkins Glen and Sonoma. Um I definitely would expect him to be in the running, and his odds are pretty good for the best Toyota odds. Um he's plus 900 to win and uh minus odds for a top 10, but um I think that the manufacturer best uh line is something to look at, and I'll get to that a little bit later. So, some other guys I want to highlight.

[00:05:30]And one guy I want to highlight from We talked about a Chevy, we've talked about a Toyota. I want to talk about another Chevy here. A veteran driver who's been having success on road courses in the next gen car. He's won here in the in the next gen car at Indianapolis in 2023.

[00:05:44]Um they ran two road course races at Indianapolis in the next gen car.

[00:05:48]Reddick won in 22 and driver for Spire Motorsports number 71 Michael McDowell.

[00:05:53]That was back when he was with Front Row in the 34 car, but he has proved time and time again in this next gen car that he could compete for wins. And I'm sure he would have had one by now if SVG stayed in his his home country out with the Supercars, but he ran well at Watkins Glen, finished runner-up. He was running well He was out running uh SVG last year at Chicago. I remember in that the pole car until he had a mechanical failure. I would have loved to see how that one played out, but Michael McDowell should be no surprise that he has solid odds if I think if he keeps his car clean cuz you never know with this this track it seems it's pretty chaotic. A lot of bumps. We'll see what happens with McDowell.

[00:06:36]Um 1400 to win, good value there. Top Chevy is plus 1100.

[00:06:42]Once again, minus odds for a top 10. And I think out of the three Spire cars he has the best chance to win out of the Spire shop. Plus 1100 for for Spire win.

[00:06:53]I think that McDowell just using that open wheel background he has and just what he's able to do.

[00:07:01]I talked to him in the media center at Pocono. He said these next two races are very important for him to get back in the chase conversation and I definitely think that you know, we'll see how strategy comes into play whether you go for the stage points or not, but I think McDowell definitely wants to win and everyone would want to win such a historic event.

[00:07:19]Everyone wants to win the inaugural inaugural race somewhere and this might be the only time they race in San Diego with logistics, so I definitely think McDowell is going to be hungry to try and upset SVG. He wants to beat him. He said that someone's going to have to do it. So, hopefully we'll see you some more intense battles between those two veterans SVG and Michael McDowell, two guys with a lot of roadcourse experience. And one more driver to note before we move on to the fantasy aspect of Through the Years.

[00:07:46]And talking about a lot of guys with success, talking about a lot of guys with veteran, you know, experience, but switching gears now to Conor Daly the rookie.

[00:07:57]Only three starts on road courses. This has obviously been a really dreadful year for him.

[00:08:02]Such a big difference between the O'Reilly car and the Cup Series car, and not a whole lot of reps he had last year. I think he only had like four or five races. He was supposed to race at Watkins Glen last year, but unfortunately had that really terrible fall in victory lane and couldn't race cuz he had that collarbone injury. But uh he had good pace at COTA, but he spun out twice.

[00:08:22]In Watkins Glen, the strategy didn't work out for him. I think he had a tire cord go down, so he has just had He's been snakebitten everywhere.

[00:08:29]But the DraftKings oddsmakers took note of him that he still should be respected as a great road course racer with great background, that he's minus odds for not only top 10, but top five. Uh I think that just if everything goes right, Conor Daly should be able to at least grab a top 10.

[00:08:46]Uh I feel It's been It's been tough watching the kid struggle this year with the the wrecks on the ovals and the road courses not going his way. Plus 650 to win. And uh best Chevy plus 500. It's It's really I think everybody's looking at SVG and Daly for the the top two Chevys this week. But you could throw in, like I said, McDowell. Keep an eye on him. And uh we'll touch on the Fords a little bit later, some Fords I'm looking at uh for some potential bet slips. Um so now moving on to fantasy at Front Stretch. We have a league through Speedway Collective.

[00:09:17]And the way it works, you have four groups and you have a bunch of different drivers in each group. And it ranges from standings and resumes cuz Class A is just loaded with a bunch of past champions and top top cars. As we move down the field, we'll see when we get to that later on how you could switch it up, but uh for the top drivers to watch in class A, group A, Tyler Reddick at the top of the board and Denny Hamlin with both averaging about 40 points per race, but again, road courses are a little bit different, but Tyler Reddick definitely one to watch there. He's mentioned Kyle Larson as well because he was fastest in practice. Chase Elliott a lot of road course wins in his career, but not a whole lot of them in the next gen car. Chris Buescher has also won at road courses in the next gen car. He won the Roval.

[00:10:05]He got his first career win on a road course as well at the Daytona road course back in 2021. So, a lot of interesting choices, but for me, I think Tyler Reddick just seems like the slam dunk answer. Also, you got to be careful with this league that you space them out. You can't just pick Tyler Reddick every single week, but I've been smart with him and saving them up, so I think I would go with Tyler Reddick for this weekend just with his road courses, his experience, and his talent, and just it seems like the 45 team's just dialed in everywhere. Um, so that's who I'd go with out of like the the seven or eight drivers. And then moving on to class B, Ty Gibbs has been a very popular pick for me this year with how he's broken out, got his first win at Bristol.

[00:10:50]And he's another guy who has some really solid numbers at road courses, so he's definitely one to watch. Chris Buescher, I would say is the best road course Ford driver. I think Blaney's right there with him, but I think Buescher's had some better performances this year in recent memory. He He beat SVG straight up at Watkins Glen a couple years ago.

[00:11:08]That was Buescher's final uh not final win, but his most recent win. Still going to get back to victory lane, and I think that he's had some really strong runs on road courses. He's one to keep an eye on. Bubba Wallace kind of in the Denny Hamlin boat is he's never been known as a great road course road course racer. I think he's been getting better as uh time's gone on.

[00:11:28]And in this next gen car, I I some veteran Ford drivers, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, and then Ross Chastain out of the Trackhouse shop, one of four entries this week. We'll get to the open driver later on, but Ross Chastain, another guy who's won on a road course. He won at Circuit of the Americas in 2022. Um but then you might notice that the group B, since he's had such a tough year, there's no Conor Daly on the top six of of guys to watch. We also have Alex Bowman, too, who's been injury-riddled. He's had some good road course runs as well in the past, but doesn't have that win in that next gen era. And going on to class C, Carson Hocevar just seems like he's fast everywhere. Had that another guy who picked up his first win this year at uh Talladega. And then Erik Jones, who's been in running so well over the past month, he's now in a chase spot, but he's another guy who doesn't seem like a a top road course racer, but he's been uh really killing it lately. Austin Cindric has that road course background.

[00:12:28]I feel like he's another guy kind of in that chase Elliott camp where he ran better in the Gen 6 car on road courses, but I think that again San Diego is a brand new fresh slate for everybody.

[00:12:38]Maybe Austin Cindric could get things done and be the top Ford. Ryan Preece, it's been a really tough month for him.

[00:12:44]Uh he wrecked out of Nashville, or he had a a piece of a brake rotor go through his radiator at at Nashville. He wrecked at Michigan, he wrecked at Charlotte, and uh Pocono he ran out of gas on the final lap, and that's after he had a tough qualifying effort.

[00:12:59]And then you got SVG, who we've all talked about. Michael McDowell's in this group, and then Stets, uh just sneakily, quietly, always in contention at road courses, AJ Allmendinger. I know it's been a little tough for him this year with Kaulig because, you know, the whole transition period between Chevy and Dodge, but I think that Allmendinger could always be a good bet to maybe get a top 10 if you're cooking up a parlay of some sorts. Other guys in this group that aren't listed, Austin Hill in the 33, Josh Berry in the 21, as well. And going on to group D, bigger class than usual, got some familiar faces and then some new ones like I said at the bottom, that fourth Trackhouse entry this week making his NASCAR debut, Kevin Magnussen, Formula 1 driver.

[00:13:41]Um another guy with you know, road course experience. And I think that's one to take a look at. And then other guys that are not usually listed cuz there's three open cars this week. You have seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson in his hometown, his home region, South Southern California. And then Corey Heim in the 67.

[00:13:59]Um and Corey Heim's been able to win basically everywhere in trucks, but he's another guy that I feel like has been talked about too much with his road course background. But in that 23 11 car, I mean they're all fast, so keep an eye on him. Riley Herbst is in this group, you want to look at him as well.

[00:14:14]And then Daniel Suárez clearly the top of this this group this year with how he's just put together a great season, had that Coca-Cola 600 win, rain-shortened. Todd Gilliland's had some pretty good runs on road courses.

[00:14:26]And uh won a stage last week at Pocono.

[00:14:27]He even checked with the top five. He is going to have a good qualifying metric this week as well.

[00:14:32]But there you have it for the group D guys. But um for fantasy, my picks this week, I mentioned Reddick. And uh then I just hinted at some some Trackhouse guys. I feel like this is going to be a a big weekend for Trackhouse. I feel like for as much as they struggled, they still seem to have good speed with the road courses just from the talent behind the wheel. I'd keep an eye out for Chastain as well cuz again, you don't want to pick SVG too many times in a row because you got to save him up. So if you don't have SVG, maybe you go Chastain. I know that you probably should have Zilch uh stocked from how tough of a year he's had, but I think Trackhouse is going to perform this weekend in San Diego. We'll see how qualifying goes from tomorrow.

[00:15:12]And then you got to go with Tyler Reddick in that A group. Um other Toyotas, I know Chase Briscoe is a pretty good road course racer. Maybe you want to go with him if you've used Reddick too many times. I'd normally say Christopher Bell, too, but you know, with that wrist injury, you never know.

[00:15:24]We don't even know if he's going to race the whole weekend. I know he'd like to, but uh Brent Cruise actually got some practice in in that 20 car, I'm pretty sure, today on standby. He's another great guy with uh road course experience at such a young age for him, just turned 18 a couple months ago, but there you have my picks for the weekend, Ty Majeski and then the three Trackhouse cars with Conor Daly, uh and Zane Majeski and Kevin Magnussen. So, a couple of a That's what I'm going to do before we close out the show.

[00:15:52]Some parlays of mine. Uh SVG to win because it just seems like you got to keep picking him until, you know, he he he he fumbles, but he hasn't been doing that lately. And then I'd go with Michael McDowell as a top three because just going off the momentum that he had from Watkins Glen, I say Spire just Spire's improvements as an organization this year. Plus 400 for McDowell top three seems like it's just too good to pass up, but you could substitute in maybe for Daly or maybe Allmendinger if you're feeling really lucky or maybe you want to throw him down to top five, which is where I put Ty Majeski. And uh then maybe the top 10, maybe you throw in an Allmendinger, maybe you throw in a Briscoe or a Larson. And if you want to expand the parlay from three legs to to four or five, but I like this one for plus 1687.

[00:16:38]With these odds, um SVG with minus odds, I think, uh you know, brings it down, but it just feels like the safe thing to do. And I'm sure that if you want to go even safer, the odds aren't going to be in your favor with like if you want to go SVG top three or top five, top 10, it's going to be the minus is going to keep going down, but I think that's a a smart choice. If you want to go even riskier, maybe go make Magnussen top 10, go kind of SVG style where he kind of took the the sport by storm in that first race.

[00:17:06]Obviously, he won it, but maybe Magnussen puts on a performance like that, top five, top 10, or any of other underdogs. And maybe, you know, this is kind of crazy with how this course is, that maybe there's going to be a lot of cautions, a lot of wrecks. Can these cars handle the bumps?

[00:17:22]Will containers crash out? Maybe you'll get some crazy surprising top 10 top 10 top 10 guys in here. Maybe Denny Hamlin will get a top 10. We'll see. Who knows?

[00:17:30]But um another bet that I crafted with the top finishing of all three OEMs. And like I said, same two cars we've been talking about really the whole show.

[00:17:43]Points leader Tyler Reddick and the favorite SVG to be top Chevy and top Toyota.

[00:17:49]SVG's got to watch out for guys I've mentioned already, his teammates, Almendinger, McDowell, maybe Larson or Elliott. Um but then the Toyotas Reddick is plus odds, so it's a little bit more of of a balance cuz you still have Bell, you have Briscoe, you have um maybe you throw in like I said with Legacy running so well, maybe you throw in a a guy like Erik Jones or in John Hunter Nemechek maybe off of one of these guys tries to to run strategy long, but haven't talked about the Fords much of this episode, but um just from how badly they've struggled this year, but and plus you know, it seems like Penske and RFK are the two clear teams. Um maybe if you want to throw in a surprise, maybe you say top Ford is going to be Todd Gilliland or Zane Smith, but I think that Briscoe is a another one. I think he had the I think he was the odds-on top Ford, but um I think Joey Logano had a good qualifying effort at Watkins Glen. I'm pretty sure he qualified in the top 10, but faded a little bit, but Joey Logano it's kind of surprising to see him still outside of the chase. Kind of like I keep waiting for him to get a a good rally going. Maybe that starts this week. Um RFK's been struggling. Brad's out of the chase now. Priest is out of the chase now, but Briscoe's still going pretty well. So that's why I still think off the the contract extension, too. I think that the 17 car is going to run well. Maybe you could throw him into a top five or a top three parlay as well.

[00:19:08]But those are the two bets I made there.

[00:19:10]A little bit safer on the parlay odds for this one. A $100 bet is plus 620 there. But, that's going to wrap up Through the Gears for this weekend at San Diego. Looking forward to seeing such a historic event, cool backdrop, you know, the whole ringing in the America 250 coming up on 4th of July.

[00:19:31]Um really excited to see all the the unknowns come into play and see how the teams adapt throughout the weekend. But, we'll see how my bets did and we'll run them back and review them before next weekend's race at Sonoma. We'll meet you back on Through the Gears next weekend.

[00:19:44]Shout out to Chris Gran for producing this. I've been Mike Ball Funny and we'll catch you next time on Through the Gears. Thanks for watching.