Ground-Hound Day For Semis, Space & Solar Stocks

追加: 2026-05-27

[00:00:01]This short clip is from my live trading room. You can engage directly with my fabulous team and me at leuktrading.com for all our research and trades or for just my daily live streams you can access via YouTube memberships. All links are in the description. It's Groundhog Day for Iran ceasefire headlines. All weekend long, Trump is saying deal negotiations are proceeding nicely. Rubio, all of them getting in line. And yet the US still carried out some uh air strikes against Iran late Monday. So uh this is the Groundhog Day.

[00:00:33]Anyway, we still have the AI excitement drum beating loudly specifically and we sized this up. That was in space and solar. This is a big big big theme especially for Luke. If you see his trades in Slack live huddle, he's been really really heavily heavily invested in the solar and battery energy storage plays of the space we identified early but in particular just the past few weeks they have really really picked up speed and that was a sentiment. We'll go take a look at those that folks are right now trading and semis are still strong and Samsung did their deal with their union. We'll kind of go over that, but for right now, you've got yield coming back down. Exactly when I said bond bulls need to get defended right now. So, sure enough, they did come in.

[00:01:23]Worsh is now in the hot seat. He was sworn in on Friday. And basically, they don't have to do anything right now. I mean, Waller is saying he doesn't know which way it's going to go, cut or hike.

[00:01:33]But basically, the Fed chair doesn't have to do a thing because the market is still convinced that he wants to cut rates. So that's going to keep some of this rate spike in check. Again, talking it down over time. We still have wars are very inflationary. We still have a deficits that are not coming down but expanding. Interest on the deficits both by the way, trade and fiscal. And then of course we've have AI is inflationary and wage inflation is not keeping up. So that's still the same thing of recession and to all-time highs. But right now the read through is that inflation will come down because oil prices will come down.

[00:02:20]Tech look at this lovely little chart from Bank of America. 8 out of 10. So consensus max bullish people who are positioning bullish or held profits, they haven't sold yet because a dollar has not picked up speed. yields breaking up hasn't gotten above some key key levels that I have anyway of being a headwind. They haven't really even started taking profits. You got some shorts that have come in. You've got lots of folks that are long and protecting, but they aren't cutting the longs. They aren't selling. So, mostly the sentiment, first of all, Grifter Chief is a bullish sentiment, but then so are these big huge humongous IPOs coming to market. So until we get some policy tightening and uh CPI gets really really aggressive not just 3.8 right now but gets into the four to five handle yields also again not really into the sweet spot of drama. You have a market that still wants to play and right now they're playing in space. They're definitely definitely playing in space.

[00:03:23]So, real quick before the market opens, you can see UFO, and we've gone over this for a little while, especially as came back in beautifully, if you recall, down to this trend line. Had earnings. I said, I think it's going to hold that 75. Well, it's printing 113 115 today in a very short twoe period. And then you've got UFO which is well above the 60 target that I gave which happens to be a fib level 2618 from this pullback into 2024. And you got to you know manage these profits cuz that is definitely extended. You've got fly that's also a name that a client was very excited about up another 6% this morning. You've got RDW, which was a gorgeous breakout several weeks ago from this trend line with followth through just needed to get above 1455. This is RDW and it's printing 20. So these are extended. There should be some profit taking in some of these plays. Not the least of which of course is RKLB right into that fib level at 142. So all the space plays have continued very strongly. So has the solar energy storage contingency. Look at this fuel cell explosion from 8 to 28. So let's see if we get a little calming down. The news over the weekend was that Samsung settled and I forget how much money they are paying. Oh, I can tell you 400,000 annual bonus for chip workers, eight times their base pay. So that is the Samsung wage deal that was struck over the weekend and AI is inflationary.

[00:05:08]That's really all there is to say about that. Anyway, so you have the semis sector still in fugo. This is called an all-time high and many many many charts were set up last week for continuation.

[00:05:20]We talked about this. It would have to get and stay below this level. It didn't. And lots and lots of stocks looked with these huge bullish engulfing candles on a weekly. Don't care really what the stock is, but they had this turnaround last week. This happens to be CRDO with a big bullish engulfing.

[00:05:39]Anyway, long story short, not shortable until this comes back and breaks, for example, 21380. So, you get tons and tons of stocks that had this very, very large reversal last week after some digestion. And now this Tuesday post long weekend and a shortened trading week, we have a big gap up. And this gap and go is also front and center with Micron. It did not get back inside this key level and it's gapping up. So it's not a shortable until it gets back down below this kind of 746 area. Marll up another 10% practically with 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 green weeks on the scene. Yes, very extended, but it really doesn't matter. They're all looking that way. So, we have no profit taking yet that has come in on semis.

[00:06:33]That was a really important kind of gap up today. It could be exhaustion buying, but in the meantime, you can see there isn't a lot of selling in this space.

[00:06:42]We'll go through. Apple has already crushed it. Green on the scene every single week. It has a fib level coming in to about 316.

[00:06:52]Very close nearby. Microsoft hasn't really gone anywhere. It looks like an explosive move potential, but it is still 1 2 3 4 5. This is week six of potential sideways. Oracle also hasn't broken out, but it has digested several weeks. You've got semis right now over software. Software is flat, but it's still firm. I mean, it's still fine.

[00:07:17]It's just coming up off the bottom. And semis are the ones that are still blowing up higher. Oh my gosh. Luke's BB is also I can't even. It's a double and then a double again. So, some of these are very, very, very long in the tooth for lack of a better word. Just take care. There isn't a lot going on with Tesla despite the fact it's doing its big road show right now and it looks very bullish. In other words, I wouldn't short this. It has stayed above this 414 and a half. Very important once it got above it, stayed above it for a whole week, two weeks, 3 weeks, and now here's the beginning of the next week. We push higher. We can get into this 460 again.

[00:07:57]Lots of calls are still coming in. We talked about SNPS last week. They have earnings on the 27th. That's tomorrow.

[00:08:05]That's synopsis and their design manufacturing in the semispace. I liked cadence post earnings. If you recall, it had this huge explosion candle. Moved higher into 327. That was the earnings.

[00:08:18]And I said as long as it holds above 327, I really like this trend line tag into about 360. And then what did it do last week? Massive bullish engulfing.

[00:08:29]Closed above it. closed above the monthly at 369. And again, these are very strong continuation plays. Anyway, Cadence and SNPS, they're related.

[00:08:40]Speaking of related, you've got Walmart that was already warned coming into earnings that they would likely disappoint because of the lower-end consumer that is strained and they don't sell to the higherend consumer. And sure enough, it dumped eight and a half percent and it is still poor. Even though the CEO came on CNBC and said, "We don't have bad guidance." Basically, that's not what the analyst read at all.

[00:09:07]So, this gap and go has basically continued and it's still really weak.

[00:09:13]Also, I expected BJ's to disappoint.

[00:09:15]They did. They uh had earnings last week and sure enough, they busted. Costco has been hanging in there, but this did a fake breakout, fast failure in Costco and came back inside that trend line.

[00:09:27]Can you see the weekly bearish that is just 1 2 3 4 days of right back to the 55day in Costco BJ's continuing down into the 200 week also post earnings. Walmart also post earnings but because of earnings also continuing likely into this right here 117 a half with an overshoot into the 50WE. I would think 50 week is a better place to defend.

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