Ghana's gold economy after Middle East crisis | Beyond The Numbers (22-06-2026)

[00:00:00]Good afternoon, and of course you're welcome to today's edition of Beyond the Numbers. Now, we're coming to you live from our studios [music] here in Kokomlemle, Accra, and this is Ghana's leading business analytics show, where we bring you packed data-driven [music] stories for you from our market headlines to big analysis segment.

[00:00:18]>> [music] >> Now, let's get straight into our headlines. Now, could tensions between the United States and Iran be edging [music] toward a virtual reset in global geopolitics? Well, in Switzerland, both sides have agreed on a 60-day [music] roadmap toward a potential deal, even as earlier disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and ceasefire concerns continue to cast a shadow over global security [music] and trade flows. And back home, Ghana's rural and community [music] banking sector is quietly building momentum. Total assets jumped strongly to over 25 [music] billion Ghana cedis, driven by robust deposit growth and expanding [music] lending activity, signaling stronger confidence in financial inclusion and the deepening role of local banks in supporting underserved communities.

[00:01:10]Well, we'll be breaking down all of [music] these stories right here on Market Headlines. I am Michelle Agbelekum, and of course the men are with me. Caleb Zilevu on the smart wall there, and of course Winston >> [music] >> Hocky.

[00:01:23]Happy new week, guys.

[00:01:26]Yeah, oh men.

[00:01:28]Well, let's head on to our first story, uh the issue of US and Iran [music] war.

[00:01:32]I mean, it's it's it's uh an agreement we've all been waiting for. Finally, uh into the early hours of today there's been some sort of agreement, [music] but I'm asking myself, and I'm going to ask you, too.

[00:01:48]Israel, which plays a role in this [music] whole, you know, uh war, was not present at the table.

[00:01:56]How is US sure that that [music] ceasefire could actually happen?

[00:02:01]>> Well, you know the entire Israel they are being backed heavily by the United States. Now, Israel has asserted indicated that they do not want to deal with Iran and that that involves Lebanon. Well, because Lebanon is in the mix, Israel has been to step back a bit.

[00:02:15]But then we know the US is behind Israel heavily >> [music] >> and the US aside from funding them with money, they also fund them with weapons and then you know so much support coming from Washington for Israel. So, once the US is in the mix, it means that they are you know trying to tell Israel that accept the deal. Again, we saw last week even though the day that the US and Iran signed a deal, that day Israel went ahead and you know attacked Lebanon. That's actually clause one of the agreement. So, they just broke [music] the first clause of the agreement the same day that US signed the deal with Iran. So, I think I mean it's it's very it's it's it's skeptical that the Israelis are not at the table [music] as we speak. But then we know the US has some influence over the Israelis and then which is why maybe the US is trying to take points in this. Already, Israel does not want to do at this point and we've spoken about this before. But then I think it ultimately depends on the US. The [music] US gave back in for Israel to start the attacks in the first place. I think even the US is with this some attacks before Israel also came on board. So, um seeing the commitment on the US side and then also the Iran side, we should see some headway. But then again, we cannot control what happens in Israel.

[00:03:20]Already last week we heard that Trump was very angry with you know the prime minister of Israel and he used some you know some curse words in there when he was speaking to some journalists. So, I think it's still a very fluid situation.

[00:03:31]But then once the US is they set their minds on something, I think we should see some you know some respite moving forward.

[00:03:37]>> Well, what is it you think that 60 day is realistic? [music] >> It's a road map. So, anything can happen within the 60 days. Now that plans are the first stage has been done, the MOU has been done.

[00:03:50]There's there's going to be a committee to oversee the implementation stages. So, those negotiation more detail will be done, especially now that they're going to meet behind closed doors to determine [music] what encapsulate the whole agreement. So, it's going to take some couple of weeks to see real implementation [music] the stages and what it entails from the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which now has become quite sensitive. [music] Anytime you touch the touch Iran, they go I'm going to suddenly straight. [music] Yeah.

[00:04:21]Suddenly, just last 2 days ago, about 26 tankers were using the Strait of Hormuz.

[00:04:26]Just this morning, the numbers reduced to six. So, it telling you how crucial it is. A lot of the ships have switched off their transponders so that they cannot be located [music] on the movement because it appears there has been so much tension in as much as this conversation has gone on.

[00:04:42]But, if you go down, there's so much lower elevation.

[00:04:46]Right now, the agreement encapsulate the fact that Iran is going to get some benefit about 300 billion dollars for restructuring of destructed places and also support from some of the Gulf [music] countries. There's also lifting of sanctions by the US on their oil exploration. The sanction on some of the >> [music] >> place their ports, their assets that have been withheld for years because of sanctions. These assets is part of the conditions that will release. So, in as much as we're seeing this whole conversation, Trump is quite positive.

[00:05:21]But, we should go earlier to the initial 2015 agreement that Obama laid on the table. It all seems similar. But, one thing Trump I feel underestimated the extent of this war. He underestimated the players in this war. He underestimated the interest >> [music] >> is in this war. So, if you look at the mood last week at the G7 meeting, it tells [music] you that everybody want this to be done with and for things to return back to business. A lot of economies have had their impact felt on their GDP.

[00:05:54]They want oil to ensure exploration.

[00:05:56]Their economies are being stagnated.

[00:05:58]Some countries are even >> [music] >> rationing their oil full supply. A lot of factories are on standstill production. So, if you look at the global output, especially on the crude oil front, today we've still it reduced marginally by 3% around 44 74 75 dollar per barrel outlook. [music] Yes.

[00:06:18]Instability is one thing that causes a lot of tension in the commodity market.

[00:06:22]And with that being said, the IMF and most countries are now reviewing their options. And we're [music] hoping that within the next 60 days certainly it's not going to take a matter of 60 days. Look at the the first day we saw the breaking agreement telling you that give and take is going to be difficult.

[00:06:39]So, most you can't basically make a projection. Trump changes his mind when he wakes up. When he sees his face he says, "I don't like my face today." Then he go and does something else. Exactly.

[00:06:48]So, I don't think it will take 60 days to get here. Looking at the bad faith on the first day, even yesterday the Strait of Hormuz was shut. So, telling you that if you're business you have to decide deciding. Some groups have decided that they want to create their own supply chain pipeline outside of the Strait of Hormuz. And with that to tell you that people are now thinking of options of supplies.

[00:07:12]>> And there's so many countries within the Gulf that cannot do that. Saudi Arabia and a few other countries. How did that come?

[00:07:17]>> So, you can be doing what you're doing, but people will still find their ways around. It's business and people think on their feet. People pay for consultation. [music] And if you are the problem for your supply, many amount of dollars are being withheld [music] because of these. And so, surprisingly about 100 ships used to pass through the Hormuz a day. Now it reduced to 26 yesterday five. Telling you that it's a bad faith for business and the understanding of global economy.

[00:07:44][music] >> Yeah. Well, let's head it to our Well, before we get into that I was going to ask you for your take as [music] well, what you think countries are in fact the the entire world should be doing, even though we're looking forward to some good news.

[00:07:58]Again, there's some uncertainties. We've said [music] that within 60 days a lot of things can happen.

[00:08:02]>> Yeah.

[00:08:02]>> What should other economies be looking at doing to cushion them when [music] things get terrible than it was >> Well, unfortunately we've done about you know 3 months of [music] the war than 3 months of the war. So, majority of world economies can do with different languages. Ghana we had some cushioning at the pumps. They had to take that out because you know what, they're betting on the sector. Other economies also started increasing production of oil if they could. Other societies tried to get bypass the streets and get their oil needs from other countries. And then you can you can just go as far as you can. So, >> [music] >> at this point we need a deal to be done.

[00:08:36]In fact, Trump has even mentioned that the pressure coming from other economies is what's letting him go to the table now to [music] Iran. So, I think at this point we just need a deal done. Without a deal we'll be in crisis mode in the next month or two. So, hopefully this 60 days time [music] line can be met. We know there's so much emphasis on Iran's nuclear program. Iran also does not want to give that up. So, we'll see how the 60 day plays out and if the US just you know decides to forget about the nuclear program in Iran and just let things go back to normal. So, hopefully the 60 days time line will be will be met and then things will get back to normal. But, for economies around the world we've done all what they can do and there's really not much they can do anymore.

[00:09:12]>> Well, [music] the moment you said that it just hit me.

[00:09:15]You know you know that saying Yeah, the religious people that they come with about 77 of them. So, as we face we've had our fair share of this whole crisis. I just hope that they're able to settle things in time. But, anyway to our next story just on Friday we were talking about how the uh and uh community banking [music] sector. I mean, their numbers are looking very good. And also government initiatives [music] to make sure that there's a structural uh proper structure to how they uh I mean, how [music] they operate. We spoke about some possible mergers if care is not taken. Today, there's some good news as well. But then, I'm thinking, looking at the mandate given them by government. [music] I mean, before, yes, the farmer could take loans worth and all of that. Could there be some risk to uh in terms of non-performing loans? Because now they they have they [music] have a certain mandate, and now prices of better stock they're lending may go up. Could there be such risk?

[00:10:15]>> Um I mean, that risk always exists. Um but then, because now you have to be recapitalized. So, before they had a minimum of I think about 1 million Ghana cedis. Now, they're doing 5 to 10 million Ghana cedis. So, this is the beautiful way of saying that, even though there might be some NPLs going forward, you need to have enough >> [music] >> uh buffers, or your books need to be able to absorb some of the NPLs going forward. Now, again, if you read through the beautiful language, you can see that the shift is now moving towards the [music] community banking perspective, which is why they are We spoke last week Friday with the the rep from Capital >> Community Bank.

[00:10:48]>> Capital Community Bank. He mentioned that they're trying to get more shareholders from the communities. So, the community now views it as their bank, you know? So, if there's any trouble, they understand what what to do with their, you know, They're all stakeholders within the with the the community. And again, uh if there are any issues with NPLs, and in fact, most of the rural banks, now community banks, they understand the climate. And we even spoke about this last uh last week Friday when we had a conversation. They understand the needs of their community.

[00:11:14]They know what moves, [music] what doesn't move. They can give someone a loan today, and they know where the person stays. And you can go You can walk to the person's house. You can monitor progress. You can walk [music] to the person's farm or the person's fishing uh you know, business and and see how things are going for yourself.

[00:11:27]Again, that also eliminates the need for some structured uh bookkeeping. Because if it comes to the traditional banks, they need to see your books. But then for the rural areas, they understand their clientele, they understand where the money goes to. So, it's easy for money channel evaluations to ensure that at the end of the day, your their loans get paid. [music] And again, majority of the local or the community banks now, they rely on a heavy deposit base. So, unlike the commercial and investor banks, where they can make easy, you know, funds through the [music] commercial securities and all of that, majority of the funding for the rural or the community banks now comes from their deposits. So, so many people within the community trust the bank and they leave their money there. So, once you have a large enough deposit base and now you're being recapitalized about 5 to 10 million Ghana cedis, the buffer [music] should be enough to withstand most of the, you know, the stress that comes within the banking sector. But then again, these risks always exist. That's why the Central Bank has now made, you know, Apex Bank and mini Central Bank to monitor the space. And then once your monitoring from the Central Bank is lacking, there's always that risk. So, I think the Central Bank needs to focus more on that. And then, you know, allow and make sure that the corporate governance within the community banks, you know, you don't give out so much of a loans to one particular individual. You know, all those corporate governance architecture is in place before I think we move forward.

[00:12:39]>> Winston?

[00:12:39]>> Yes. [music] I think if you look at the structure of rural banks, now community banks, it's it's it's emphasizes more loyalty.

[00:12:48]Most of the banks trust, like Caleb said, the structure of the banks. And for that reason, you find out that most of the managing director of rural [music] banks have long-term relationship with people in the community. He can name everybody in the community, including their grandchildren. So, you go there and say, "Your father gave to you your daughter this amount of money." And go and tell him, "He He owes us this amount of money." Meaning that they have the geographical information about the people and they understand the community so well. With that being said, it is important for us to understand the how they local economy basis the structure. So, if you talk about the urban population, >> [music] >> mostly the rural community banks are those who are intermediary capturing those data for us. Although, one thing the Central Bank have found it quite necessary is to ensure the incorporation of technology to to to prioritize [music] data collection from the rural bank. We know the Apex Bank does that oversee overseen by the Bank of Ghana.

[00:13:46]So, our ARB Apex Bank including the Water Bank of Ghana is going to do is going to bring more structure. So, I believe the rural banks in Ghana who are look is doing great if you look at the numbers with the deposit increasing the profitability, the dividends they So, last year I keep monitoring some of them their reports. If you look at how much the dividend they give, they even give higher dividend sometimes than most of the commercial banks. And they have that fortitude >> [music] >> with their businesses within the community. So, it helps you it help them the individuals including It's hard to you hear up apart from few instances a rural bank shutting down because they always have the backing of the rural leadership in those communities from the chiefs to the people, the community base, >> [music] >> and the the corporate society. So, the cooperative groups within those communities always save their money sometimes with with the rural banks. So, the rural banks have that flow of cash.

[00:14:44]The churches, the corporate groups in the churches find their money back to the rural banks. You go the women group, [music] all those groups sometimes small small savings >> Yeah.

[00:14:54]>> susu groups >> Yeah.

[00:14:55]>> all of them find their money in the rural banks. So, the rural banks have that community groundwork compared to the to the whole structure of the commercial banks. So, I believe it is high time and I like the way the Central Bank is bringing these dynamics. We are hoping to see that the incorporation of technology will enhance the outlook where individuals can save directly but it will take more of education. It will take some [music] few of time for us to see their record a more robust growth as they have done previously. And I believe also the outlook I'm just curious to see how the branding is going to look like.

[00:15:29]And the call for mergers in this [music] instance because about 23 of these banks are in distress according to what I'm picking up. And this distressful nature tells you that probably some of them are used to the old ways of doing things.

[00:15:42]With the new ways of doing things some may fall out, but consolidating the base is important where we protect the customer interest while ensuring that the local economy is as well. So going forward I I believe the rural banking system >> [music] >> is critical and essential to our whole economic outlook if you want the market to want to survive. How they get their produce from other countries into Ghana import and export the rural banking has been the lifeblood. And so I think compared to the the challenges of getting loans [music] from the commercial banks, the rural banks really help the local businesses.

[00:16:16]>> Well, definitely and this has been [music] analysis on these top two stories for market headline, but definitely we're coming back with big analysis. I mean the guys, so the men.

[00:16:28]>> [laughter] >> Caleb and Winston and Kofi will join them for [music] big analysis, but of course we're taking a look at Ghana's gold.

[00:16:35]It's been our number one foreign exchange earner in the past [music] couple of months if I should say, but what happens after this entire Middle East crisis? [music] Are we still going to see some shoot up?

[00:16:47]And again, who and who are buying the gold? Where are they buying them all from? And where does the gold from the >> [music] >> galamseyers also go? Please do stay with us. It's still beyond the numbers. We'll be right back.

[00:17:16]>> The external sector remained resilient despite the early impact of heightened geopolitical tensions.

[00:17:22]We temporarily slowed gold export shipments in March and April 2026.

[00:17:29]In the first quarter of 2026, the current account surplus improved to 3.1 billion US dollars from 2.43 billion dollars in the same period in 2025.

[00:17:42]This was primarily driven by robust gold and cocoa export earnings alongside stable remittance inflows despite the rise in payments for services and investment income. Then shipments of gold. Yes, the Middle East crisis for a while temporarily disrupted, you know, trade between from here between Ghana and the Middle East, sorry, the UAE. Um, but Gold Board has been able to find a way around it. They've been able to secure alternative trade destinations. And so, as we speak, shipments are ongoing. They've deployed other strategies to be able to sustain, uh, you know, gold exports.

[00:18:41]>> [music] [music] >> You're still watching Beyond the Numbers here on Joy News. And for our big analysis today, we take a clearer look at the fate of gold. Gold prices have pulled back from the record highs seen earlier this year when they climbed to around 5,600 dollars per ton. And today, prices are hovering around $4,191.

[00:19:16]While today's a notable decline, gold remains historically elevated. For Ghana, this matters because gold is our largest export and a key source of foreign exchange. Lower prices could mean reduced export earnings, slower accumulation of reserves, and potentially less support for the cedi if the decline is sustained. However, at current levels, gold is still trading well above long-term averages, meaning Ghana continues to benefit from strong export revenues. The bigger question is whether prices will stabilize, rebound, or continue to fall.

[00:19:55]That will determine how so much of a cushion gold can provide to the economy in the months ahead. Less certain for the details here on Beyond the Numbers, and I've been joined by my amazing brother Kofi Egyir here. I >> [snorts] >> I'm good.

[00:20:11]>> Looking solid.

[00:20:12]>> Father's Day.

[00:20:13]>> Happy Father's Day.

[00:20:14]>> Did you get any gifts?

[00:20:15]>> I did. I did.

[00:20:16]>> Oh, I see.

[00:20:17]>> I did.

[00:20:17]>> Uh what did you No, what did you get?

[00:20:19]>> [laughter] >> What did you get?

[00:20:20]>> I can't tell you.

[00:20:22]>> I see.

[00:20:23]>> Anyways, it's good to see you guys again. Now, we want to go straight to the number. Before we get to the detail analysis, let's take our viewers through the appreciative numbers, how the gold has been looking for quite some time now since it began experiencing an amazing growth.

[00:20:39]Kofi, take it from >> I'm here. So, we know after the return of Donald Trump to the White House, gold prices have been doing very well. And basically, people do not trust the US presidents anymore, so they started moving their money to more to gold. And we saw the effects for that in 2024, we heard that majority of the central banks now replace the euro as the second held assets with dollar with gold, sorry. And the dollar was also first. Now, 2025 details have come out that gold has now overtaken the US dollar as the central banks move their reserves more to gold.

[00:21:09]In fact, we've seen Ghana do the same.

[00:21:10]Most of the countries in the European Union also doing same. The European Central Bank is also going heavy on gold now. And China, a major player in the gold industry now, they are trying to, you know, de-dollarize the economy. So, all of these things push the price of gold up, which is why we saw gold coming from about $2,000 per oz. Went up steadily to $5,600 per oz. That was the highest we saw ever, and that all happened in January 2026. That was before the, you know, the impacts of Middle East. Now, surprisingly, this basic economic theory is that whenever there's a, you know, some tension somewhere or uncertainty, people move towards where they feel safe.

[00:21:44]Usually, that's gold. But then, during the entire conflict, we did not see that. In fact, we saw the opposite.

[00:21:49]The gold prices were falling significantly. Now, >> [clears throat] >> there are so many, you know, ways to understand it. One of the the prevailing, you know, thinking is that because people saw the $5,600 per oz, they decided to cash out because so many people said, "This is not the true value of gold. Once it has reached this high, we're going to cash out and get, you know, our profit."

[00:22:07]>> Talking about cashing out, people realized what they landscape here and thought possibly, and I believe this is where the conversation began about negotiation and the deal began around March there. But, however, we've seen it going up marginally in the month of April and sustained decline going forward.

[00:22:23]>> And so, since then, the price has been very subdued a bit, even though it's still high compared to historical standards. We are coming from less than $3,000 per oz. So, we are still at 4,000, which is good news. Again, this is why Ghana's economy is also booming at this point because gold is our primary export. If you check the graph, 62% of Ghana's exports at this point is gold. So, majority of the, you know, the gains we are seeing so far, gold is, you cannot take gold out of it. Again, because of how gold has also come into the conversation, the government now has control over the entire dollars or the forex whenever gold is exported.

[00:22:55]>> Great. Keli, I'll get back to you on this as well. Kofi, we've been doing the outlook of gold board. We we described it as a strategic institution for the government, including the governor the the president himself retreating that the central bank governor retreating that with the finance minister Dr. Kesel the force and also bringing in the light saying that the back of it we've been able to float. What would a business in the picture look like had it not been for gold in 2025?

[00:23:22]>> Well, I think we all saw that picture how the exposed value actually jumped from the highs of I think 11 billion dollars.

[00:23:29]And in 2025, we're talking about close about 22 billion US dollars in terms of gold export about 21 billion dollars.

[00:23:36]That is huge. If you compare that to the second highest and then in terms of a foreign exchange, there is the that item is nowhere close to where gold is at the moment. But it's all because of the elevated price we all saw in 2025 and simply because of what is going on in the US and then gold is exacerbated by the war in the Middle East. Now, Caleb made an important point that I think that it needs some level of you know, new modeling when it comes to regression analysis because if you look at the relationship between tensions or war and gold, what we know is that usually when there are tension, gold prices seem to go up because of the saving safe haven, you know, theory that we all know that once [snorts] there's a war, uh gold is your best bet in terms of where to put your assets. And usually when that happens, the dollar weakens and gold gains, right? But this year we are beginning to see something different. And it looks like the curve that we are seeing currently where it is now more of a quadratic than a linear relationship between tensions and gold where it actually went up like this and it's now coming down. Why is this coming down?

[00:24:48]It's because of the element that possibly we are not taking a keen look at, but has become an important geopolitical and international factor, which is what is going on in the US at the moment, not the Middle East, right?

[00:25:00]The Middle East has a spillover in the US. Remember that we've had wars, and the US has always been insulated from prices when they are tensions. But this time around, the war is biting everybody, including the US. Fuel prices have risen more than to about $4 per per per, you know, per liter. We've seen where inflation is currently at the US, where policy rate is US definitely wants inflation to be somewhere around 2%. We know currently it's almost nearing I think 4% or so.

[00:25:33]Just look at the headache it gives to the Fed, right? And you should know that once the Fed is not able to cut rate and they are holding on to the rate, or possibly hiking the rate, it makes US Treasuries more expensive. And holding gold becomes relatively, you know, exactly because now the opportunity cost of holding gold now is so risky to the extent that now investors are looking at what what is going on in the US. Now you know that there's a new Fed boss, right? And whatever happens in US actually reflects in our economy. And And if our economy will get any form of respite, it depends on what happened in the US, not just the Middle East. Because the economy currently needs a rate cut from the US to take a pause.

[00:26:20]Now because of the war, the Central Bank or the Fed in the US cannot do the rate cut. And this year we are seeing the projections.

[00:26:27]>> It's going to be a hiking state.

[00:26:28]>> Exactly. We are expecting, you know, at least 50% chance that there will be a hike. I have never seen this in about four or five years.

[00:26:37]Exactly, especially because, you know, when Trump replaced the Fed chair, the whole idea was that he has come to cut rate. Exactly. And when he came to his meeting, the language was he's not going to cut rate. The language is Why Why is the language because what is happening in the US cannot guarantee you a rate cut. Remember that here we look mostly at inflation, but in the US the labor market plays an important role.

[00:26:59]Currently, the labor market in the US is very very heated. The economy is exactly the the the economy in the US isn't heated, but prices coming from the war is making it difficult. Why? Because exactly you are having you know inflation going around 4%. You want to be around 2%. How do you do a rate cut?

[00:27:20]You can't do a rate cut and there are projections that you could possibly hike. So, when some of these uncertainties continue to fester, it only gives gold that needed momentum to possibly come down further because at the moment Trump needs the war to end quickly for him to be able to achieve that rate cut that he want. Without the war ending, there is no way the US can afford a rate cut and there is no way gold prices will go up if rates are not cut.

[00:27:47]>> I I I perceived that Trump saw the numbers in the US and saw how much they are holding in terms of support to the global economy and said, "Oh, I can bully my my way through this war."

[00:27:56]Unfortunately, he underestimated the elements that are relating to consideration. You mentioned rates which I want to point out here. In in 2026 February, we saw gold grew increase to all time high. The acceleration increased our international reserves as a commission Ghana and we understood that that certain aspect made our GDP, our reserves including our import cover look good. The the what is the eminent risk of building your economy based on commodity without necessarily ensuring that the structures are sustained in the medium to long term considering the fact that at these numbers already we are seeing decline there and government will have to reassess their risks going into the latter part of 2026.

[00:28:41]>> Listen, if you are building your economy on a commodity price, you should You that the the risk factor is always the price. And I think the beginning of this year cocoa showed us how not to rely on a commodity.

[00:28:53]Where we risk losing about 10 billion CDs as a result of the fall in the prices. Because I mean the fall in the global price of cocoa, right? And now with gold is the same thing. It was This is not the first time you're having this discussion. We've said it over and over again that the biggest risk at the moment is the price. The price the trading you know price at the moment which was around 5,600 now around 4,191.

[00:29:21]>> Yeah.

[00:29:21]>> And we know how important gold has become integral in this economy. Because if you look at the blueprints going forward, the whole idea is to build reserves. How do you How are you going to do the build a reserve 15 months of imports cover by the end of 2028, right?

[00:29:36]Majority of these reserves that we want to build is going to come from gold, right? So at the moment if gold prices fall to the level where we are not you know un expected. At the moment we still have some head room or breathing space because it's still about 4,000. It used to be around 2,500 2,800. Exactly. Now you are still about 4,000. But remember the same way cocoa was able to move from the highs of $12,000 per ton.

[00:30:04]>> 4,000.

[00:30:05]>> Now I think it even got to as low as 3,300.

[00:30:09]That should tell you that the story can also be the same for for gold. And at the moment the risk you're talking about for me I think if you ask about risk is the price. That is why many have said that how do you milk the space when price are elevated. That's why we I think that government did a fantastic job by introducing the the new sliding scale although the industry did not really like it. But that sliding scale ensured that we were benefiting from the rise in price. Other than that we were still going to take that fixed fee of 5% on royalties. Now we understand that the industry even wanted sustainability levy to go in total. But I think that the sliding scale conversation has really helped government at the moment because but for that, this whole, you know, increase in price in terms of the world market price would have gone past us and would have just gotten maybe the usual 5% that we used to get from the ports.

[00:31:01]>> Kofi, in 2024, we had an increase in production attributed from 2.92 million ounces for gold. In 2025, that is in 2024 basically. 2024, we seen 2.83 telling you there's been a 3% decline in terms of gold production in terms of numbers. If I'm looking at it from the large-scale perspective.

[00:31:23]>> Yeah.

[00:31:24]>> We always assess these numbers looking at how its implication is where government is getting its gold from.

[00:31:30]We understand the Ghana the Ghana wrap program ensures that some percentage of the gold from the large-scale mining goes straight to the reserve while the small-scale artisanal portion goes to the gold board. With that policy backing, are we expecting to see these numbers reflect in the output and the amount of money we get in terms of forex in the country?

[00:31:53]>> And well, we've already seen it because last year production [clears throat] we did 6 million ounces. That was the highest we've done so far.

[00:32:00]Small-scale did 3.1 million ounces.

[00:32:02]>> Yes.

[00:32:02]>> the first time small-scale sector is producing more than the large-scale sector, which is why the you know, the conversation about we should be uh monitoring for a slump in gold prices because usually when gold price when commodity prices goes up to a certain point, there's overproduction. So which is why we saw this in 2025. Small- large-scale, even though their production dwindled a bit, they were produc- they were producing tremendously last year. Same with the large-scale.

[00:32:26]Same with the small-scale, sorry. So now when there's an overproduction, usually there's no underproduction the next, you know, in the next season.

[00:32:32]>> over galamsey.

[00:32:34]>> Exactly.

[00:32:34]>> Yeah.

[00:32:34]>> We saw the same over galamsey is coming up boys one to will come July.

[00:32:38]>> [laughter] >> Yeah. We saw >> the same conversation with cocoa. When cocoa prices fell >> Yes.

[00:32:43]>> There were now over production, the prices so when cocoa prices went up because there was no production, production went up and then then there there was a slump.

[00:32:51]>> to crash the market.

[00:32:52]>> Exactly. So whenever we are seeing very high prices, we should expect that in the near future there's going to be a crashing prices.

[00:32:58]We are not at the crash point yet because of Donald Trump and what's happening in the US and the policies and and all of the uncertainties and all of that. But then a crash is imminent. And like you may like you rightly mentioned, we need to understand what the government is doing in place to ensure that we are moving away from this commodity economy. Because 3.1 million ounces from the small scale sector is very good. That's what helped the economy last year. That's what made sure our CD performed to 10 CD 60 pesewas 10 CD 40 pesewas because of production in the small scale side. Because gold board get the dollars from the small scale sector, feeds it to the BOG, BOG supply the market and make sure that demand is meeting supply. So I think uh we understand that we are where we are because of good prices.

[00:33:36]Even though during the conflicts gold the CD performed weekly a bit and I'm of the view that this was intentional from the BOG because the BOG could have you know made sure that the price or the CD stayed at 10 CD 60 pesewas.

[00:33:47]>> to set new cocoa price and we all knew that you need you know >> Yeah. So I mean Yeah. So we've we've we've seen the effects on the economy.

[00:33:56]Now like you said, how are we moving the economy from the commodity, you know, base to now a more, you know, refined base. The government now is focusing more on, you know, building the reserves now which is very important because if you can build it now while your economy is in a very good position, this this is the time to do it. Because when gold prices crash, you're going to need something to fall back on. And if you don't have the buffers, you're going to be left exposed which is why in the 2022 era when we were locked out of the international markets, the current the economy was on the back of Eurobonds.

[00:34:23]Now when you are locked out of the markets and the Eurobond that you have or the dollars you have expires, that's it. You cannot go back to the market.

[00:34:29]Same thing with gold. Once uh gold prices tank, so we don't have anything within the economy that can support us, we're going to go back to the IMF with you know with with our cups out.

[00:34:37]>> I think we have interesting numbers there for the gold looking at these small scale miners sector.

[00:34:42]Uh what does look at these small scale miners? The number is 3.1 million ounces per annum.

[00:34:46]>> They are overproducing the last years.

[00:34:47]>> Exactly. We know the numbers are >> First time we are capturing that data officially.

[00:34:52]>> Exactly.

[00:34:53]>> It could be that they've always overproduced, but the first time we are capturing the >> We heard the the CEO Sammy Jimfi say that they are going to introduce the tracing. So until the tracing system comes, these numbers certainly may encapsulate illegal mining operations.

[00:35:07]>> Sorry, before before Kofi comes in, the tracing system was supposed to come in the first quarter of this year. First, the last quarter of 2015 didn't come, then they said the first quarter of 2016 we've not seen it yet. So I think we need some clarity from Gold Coast why they >> In fact, I know the piloting stage is still running, right? And that's why Wednesday made an important point about refinery because now we're talking about production. When prices fall and you you are country that is able to refine on a larger scale, you can do that and wait for good price, right?

[00:35:35]It's same with cocoa. If you're able to process some of them in your local space, you don't mind what happens in the in in the international market, you can you can process, store, and wait for good price. That's what good economic agents do.

[00:35:48]>> Yeah.

[00:35:49]>> But in our case, we are now talking about refinery, which I think that the the timelines have actually delayed a bit because of maybe some of the the difficulties involved, the technology, how difficult it is, exactly. How difficult Galamsey itself is becoming a problem. And I've always said that it is not enough to say we are we've gone into refinery at the moment because remember there are two markets that you can sell a refined gold, the premium markets and the highly discounted market. And I have, you know, an article on MyJoyOnline that talks about how Ghana has started refinery, but when we go out there to sell to the premium guys, they will say no, we will not buy at prevailing market rate, we'll buy at a discounted price. Why? Because you cannot source where that gold is coming from, traceability. So, when that happens, it means that we cannot sell in the premium market like the the LBM, the London market, the London bullion market, you know, New York and all of that. We will be forced to sell in India, UAE, Middle East, those places that will know gold prices are highly discounted. So, imagine, Gold Board buying, you know, a ton for for let's say an ounce for let's say uh $4,200.

[00:37:08]>> And And Gold Board is still buying at spot price.

[00:37:10]>> At spot price.

[00:37:11]And And And And you sell to this the refineries and they refine and they are not able to sell at premium. Definitely, there's going to be That's why we we've not been able to have a refinery. It's not always about whether we had the technology.

[00:37:25]>> Well, we're seeing some refinery MOU signed with >> Exactly.

[00:37:31]The point I'm making is that if you don't get that certification and if you can't trust and you can't trace your your gold, there's no way you can sell in the premium market to possibly break even or make profit. It is going to be bad news, gentlemen. We are likely to see some of these companies, you know, deciding to shut down in the medium-term or short-term because of some of these problems that we have.

[00:37:53]There's an arrangement to to make available some of the large-scale gold, but we're seeing the data. The data is telling you that where we need a lot of, you know, tracking, where we need a lot of concentration, is where that 3.1 million is coming from. And And it's likely that this year we are we are we could be producing about 3.5 or 3.6 million, you know, ounce from the small-scale sector. So, until we are able to to do proper tracing and tracking, where I know Gold Board is in a process, but we also know that certain things have delayed. And I've always made a point that why didn't we make sure we had the traceability program full-fledged before we go out for we go out into the >> visits the illegal places. What's the name?

[00:38:41]>> NIMOS.

[00:38:41]>> NIMOS. Comparatively, they every 2 days we used to get an information. Suddenly, the media presence has come down. I'm wondering why. Is there something going on that we don't know?

[00:38:52]>> I think they were they were >> They changed leadership when they changed leadership.

[00:38:55]>> Yes, yes, they changed leadership in the past 2 weeks ago.

[00:38:57]Yeah, maybe new strategies coming up.

[00:38:59]>> Is coming up?

[00:39:00]>> Yeah.

[00:39:00]>> People are still digging. We've seen we've seen the ripple effect in the environment degradation in some parts of the communities. Most of farming communities have been hindered. Now, let's not forget its implication on the environment. The Environmental Protection Agency are at the high sleep, not because they can't do their work, because if they go there, some of the artisanal small-scale miners are not abiding by the regulations within that community. They do not ensure where their mine is covered. A lot of loopholes We hear cases of mines collapsing on individuals going there.

[00:39:36]And these are situational cases.

[00:39:38]The most of the rivers have been diverted into cities. Now, it appears the water bodies are being polluted.

[00:39:45]Let's not forget that anywhere they mine, they use chemicals. The chemicals seep down, distill into the soil, get down into the basins underneath where we they withhold water. For instance, we know boreholes, you have to dig deeper to get access to water. Those waters are connected to tunnels within the cities and towns. So, you may be in Accra, but the borehole water may be coming from somewhere in Kumasi because of the interlink. And these waters get back to our plants, get back to our communities.

[00:40:11]We we we we water our plants in most places. You go to Don't forget, if you go to some of the bio labs in the country and they test the amount of bacteria's or elements on our foods on the market, they could tell you how much of chemical components are in and devastating.

[00:40:30]>> Yeah, I am from Bosome Freho.

[00:40:31]>> Yes.

[00:40:32]>> [clears throat] >> And there's a community or there's a town or a village where they are known for the cultivation of you know, cabbage.

[00:40:39]>> Yeah.

[00:40:39]>> Right? It will shock you that when you get there, you see the cabbage farm one side, galamsey pit on the other side all sharing the same you know, water. So you ask yourself, the food we even consume and all of that, how wholesome is that?

[00:40:55]Now we are asking an important point about the fate of you know, Ghana's you know, economy after the Middle East crisis because it is only after the war ends, possibly when the war ends quickly, that we'll be able to get some level of respect. But at the moment, for for gold prices even drop from the highs of 5,600 to about 4,100 or 200. What is even the probability that after the war ends, we're not going to see the curve go this way or go this way, right?

[00:41:24]Because you can't really predict now.

[00:41:26]Most of the old behavior or characteristics of certain economic indicators we we used to know >> Yeah.

[00:41:33]>> without some of these geopolitical tensions and how sophisticated they >> are because of Trump, just one man.

[00:41:38]>> Exactly, just one man. And you you saw him at a G7, he said, "I'm the boss, right?" That that that statement sounded very, very, you know, humorous, but it meant a lot, right?

[00:41:50]>> [snorts] >> If I If you look at somebody shared a picture of you know, past G7 meetings where after that, you see a US president taking a photo with almost all the world leaders or the G7 you know, leaders, but this time around, Trump was in the middle. I don't know whether that but it was an interesting picture. That should tell you that the kind of president we have in the US he's one person but he's a big big geopolitical factor. And that's why I the gov- the governor says that when he wakes up, the first thing he does is that he will tune in to listen and see and hear what Donald Trump has said or done again because that is important.

[00:42:28]Whatever happens in the US economy we are far away from the US but it has an impact. It has an impact on our ability to even cut rates. We know we were on aggressive rate cut. But why has it paused? It's because of the tensions in the Middle East. Why has it paused?

[00:42:44]Because the US cannot cut rate at the moment because of the war. So, we need the war to end quickly not only to help the US but also to help developing >> I want to raise a very serious issue which I'll get Caleb's assessment on that. I'm so concentrated on the 3.1 million which is the fact that in as much as we are seeing growth and how gold board has come in, the implication on our GDP first quarter GDP looking good 2025 was amazing. My key question is government's challenge every government's challenge is translating growth into employability. Translating promises campaign promises into reality.

[00:43:21]We'll create 10,000 jobs. You wonder though though launch a very amazing programs. I've I've attended several programs. They launch amazing programs and they will say this is going to create 10,000 jobs. You go there you wonder what is the model which angle is how is is it is it is the job considered based on salary payment or is it based on productivity?

[00:43:45]Now, we understand the sector is making boom but when it comes to job and employability and real reflection in the base outlook of the economy, what should we be cautious about?

[00:43:56]>> Um so, let me start from the small scale sector. Now, even though they [clears throat] are cannot contribute about 60% of the last total gold exports, they pay about 5% of the taxes coming from the gold sector. The large gold sector is still doing the heavy work in terms of payments to the government. Now, if you are government and want to ensure that some of the host communities where mining takes place, like where the a place that was flooded recently, if the small-scale miners they are paying taxes to the government, then you can demand that, you know, the government should take care of our roads, take care of the gutters and all of that. But the government is not taxing the small-scale sector. Right now, we know that gold board goes to the miners who take the gold from them to their off-takers or to their, you know, agents. But then, I don't understand why gold board feels, you know, ensure that they are paying taxes. You know, there's there's We we know where the small-scale miners are because you get the gold from them. So, understanding why it's difficult for the government to now understand the entire sector and then ensure that they are paying their their due, they are paying their taxes because they are they are producing more now.

[00:44:52]So, I think that's the first leg of the conversation. Now, the second leg, and Kofi spoke about this, is how to translate this into the wider economy.

[00:44:58]Now, if we have Ghana produce the largest gold producer in Africa at the moment, 6 million ounces 2025, why don't we Why can't people get easy access to gold? Like, we know gold board jewelry is doing something of the sort, but then there should be deliberate policy where we can everyone can get up and own a gold a gold watch or something. You know, that's how you ensure employability within the sector. If you get more craftsmen, you know, within the sector, that that's that's how you will move the economy from >> at looking at the scope of the sector, would you advise I give that level because it demands specialization in that >> Winston, not not not to cut Caleb, but I know a number of people whose whose businesses have actually collapsed because of gold board.

[00:45:38]Right at the introduction of gold board.

[00:45:39]Why am I saying so? Not to say that gold board collapsed there, but because of the the formalization of the space, we know now the only person who has the legal rights to trade in gold is is gold board. But we should also know that they are local, you know, artisans who needs more gold to do these chains and I mean some of these rings and all of those things we see in some of the informal market like in Kumasi, the ornaments, the artifacts, and all of those things.

[00:46:09]It is becoming so difficult for them to get gold. And because of the the restrictions people are facing, there is a black market that has been, you know, created offering even prices above spot price. Because at the moment everybody is selling their gold to gold board. So, if you want me to give it to you, you need to be able to pay me more.

[00:46:30]>> I said, "If somebody if the CEO of Gold Board says, 'We do not buy gold.'" And I'm quoting from >> Well, he has to >> Who buys Who buys it?

[00:46:39]>> Well, they license people to buy gold for them. Like, Cocoa Board does not buy cocoa. And Cocoa Board has the the LBCs who buy, you know, the cocoa.

[00:46:46]>> But he was specific. "We don't buy gold from galamsey."

[00:46:48]>> Well, I'm sure he meant to say we don't go to to the >> site and give me your gold.

[00:46:52]>> It's a "Give me your gold." But Gold Board has no way of identifying whether the gold that has been brought by Kwesi Mensah or Kwesi Mensah team is from a galamseyer or from >> If you are illegal, you smuggle that. I do galamsey. I can't give coffee >> Yes.

[00:47:05]>> galamsey gold and he sells it to >> He sells it to me.

[00:47:07]>> You know, so that there's always a way to get around all this.

[00:47:09]>> So, so me my my biggest worry now is that it's going to be the small >> Gentlemen, before you get worried, just keep your emotions Let's listen to the CEO of Gold Board before we come back for this conversation.

[00:47:20]>> You haven't bought galamsey gold and you are not buying galamsey gold. By policy, we don't buy galamsey gold. That is the answer. That is the honest answer I can tell you. Because I don't buy gold.

[00:47:29]>> Mhm.

[00:47:30]>> Do you understand?

[00:47:30]>> Your officers who go out to supervise >> don't buy gold.

[00:47:33]>> And you >> My officers don't buy gold. A lot of people don't know. It's like, look at the Cocoa Board system. When the traceability system I spoke about is um procured in the next 3 4 months, then we can have this conversation again. We will not onboard you. And if we don't onboard you, you can't sell your gold.

[00:47:49]You are going to And if Parliament passes a law and says, "Now, if you are not onboarded on Gold Board's traceability system and you have any gold anywhere, you should be arrested, the gold should be confiscated, you should be prosecuted, and you have yourself to be blamed. Some will argue that that is going to create an underground economy where smugglers are going to take advantage of all that, but we can't also say that because we need a gold, then we'll continue to encourage illegal miners. So, the president is very passionate about this.

[00:48:18]>> We can't say because we don't need the gold, so we're going to cut illegal miners. So, this is one thing, including the fact that we do not buy poison. My people do not buy gold.

[00:48:25]>> But I like But I like his answer. Very honest. My point No, no, not not very honest, I won't say, but I say he said >> not honest in that. You're not convinced now.

[00:48:33]>> Well, honesty is to me is a bit subjective, but I mean, I think he says that policy-wise they are not buying galamsey gold.

[00:48:42]But >> It means that the reality is different from >> Gold Board itself doesn't have people who buy gold, but they have licensed private individuals who go and these are the private individuals who are buying the galamsey gold to sell to Gold Board.

[00:48:55]So, logically, the galamsey gold ends up with Gold Board, but Gold Board is not the one directly buying the galamsey gold.

[00:49:02]That's what he possibly meant to say.

[00:49:04]But in the long run or in the chain of this whole gold purchase program, >> There's definitely some kind >> it will definitely end up with Gold Board.

[00:49:12]>> You can't just eat one thing and wash the other.

[00:49:14]>> No, so you can't take yourself out of the equation. Gold Board is part of the equation. It's an integral part of the equation because if you sell to the the licensed buyer, and Gold Board says that, "Well, I don't know where you bought it from."

[00:49:27]>> So, would the traceability change the equation from this angle?

[00:49:30]>> That's what it is supposed to do, right?

[00:49:32]Traceability >> Will it completely >> Or just give No.

[00:49:36]>> No, because so for traceability, yeah, whereby we pick an ounce of gold, we should know the mine this gold is coming from. So, that's the entire >> A registered mine?

[00:49:42]>> A registered mine. A registered galamsey mine?

[00:49:45]>> No.

[00:49:45]>> No, a registered mine.

[00:49:46]>> A registered mine.

[00:49:47]>> Exactly.

[00:49:47]>> So, hopefully, when that happens, it means that these mines will start paying their taxes, and you know, the state gets more out of it. And without the traceability of Cocobod, we cannot sell our gold in the premium market, which is why we are accepting discounts in Dubai and India. Which is why again, when there was some disruption within the two markets, you know, with some dollars inflow within the economy, we also suffered a bit, and we saw how that impacted the city. So, moving forward, we need to understand the the plans for the restructuring of Gold Board and the entire sector. You know, last [snorts] year, Gold Board was traded on the was traded on the books of the BoG. The BoG made a gross loss of 21 billion. People think it's just 9 billion.

[00:50:19]>> The IMF warned cuz then in that India assessment >> Yeah, the entire loss was 21 billion.

[00:50:22]Mhm. The Finance Ministry had to give BoG about 5 billion to offset some of the loss because go and BoG also sold some of the gold within their reserves.

[00:50:30]They also managed to use the profit to offset some of the loss, which is why we at the end we said the gold purchase program lost about 9 billion Ghana cedis. The total loss was 21 billion.

[00:50:38]>> Now, Gold Board is coming to the market directly >> on its own books.

[00:50:41]Yeah.

[00:50:42]>> to deal with commercial bank. Another threat if prices begin to go down like we are seeing and we are not able to get the refinery and traceability game right because we'll still be buying at premium and selling at discount. It's going to be a loss on Gold Board books. The reason why Cocobod was not able to pay the banks not because they got the money and they spent it. It's because there was there were price differentials which made it difficult for Cocobod to pay PBC and Co. to pay the loan. If we don't get this whole game right, at the moment it looks very nice.

[00:51:13]>> Cuz prices are very high.

[00:51:14]>> Exactly, but if prices begin to drop >> Imagine the revenues.

[00:51:18]>> We all know where we'll find ourselves.

[00:51:19]>> Now, we are not leaving the conversation [music] here. It's about to be picked up here and continuously analyzed and analyzed here on Beyond the Numbers. And I'm glad you're watching us from wherever you are, Tamale, Kumasi, Sunyani, everywhere. You're live on Joy News [music] bringing you comprehensive analysis on topical issues. So, today >> Shout out to some people watching us from Pesewest Junction.

[00:51:40]>> Pesewest Junction.

[00:51:41]>> They are watching Joy News they they they are they are watching us.

[00:51:44]>> Okay, what's the name of the place?

[00:51:46]>> It's called Pesewest [music] Eatery.

[00:51:47]They're watching us there. They tune in to be on the numbers. Yeah, Peduase >> Thank you for watching. Caleb Kofi Winston Turkey. Thanks for watching. See you same time on Wednesday. Bye-bye.

[00:52:02]>> [music] [music]