"Be Prepared!! This Is What's Going To Happen To Bitcoin NOW" - Raoul Pal Bitcoin Interview

本站添加: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]But really speaking, we could see an extended extremely hot business cycle that runs. And the only thing that would null and void that is if the bond market says no way, which is why Bessant is over in China and Japan trying to stop that happening by getting more buyers at the long end. So, if kind of anything over like 5 5 and 1/2% of 10-year notes, you start to say, "Okay, this could decouple." But we also have the reaction function is the moment that happens, they do something.

[00:00:30]So, it's kind of they don't want it to happen. They'll use some vague form of yield curve control to keep this happening. So, I kind of am airing towards the supercycle, which is the dangerous thing cuz somebody on here is going to say, you know, after we have some liquidity cycle, you said it was a supercycle.

[00:00:46]I'm not I'm saying probabilistically it's increasing.

[00:00:55]Hey guys, welcome to Everyday Finance.

[00:00:57]In order to secure a significant grand bargain with Xi Jinping, Donald Trump carried out a historic diplomatic visit to Beijing with a strong delegation of American corporate, technological, and financial leaders, including Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, Tim Cook, and Larry Fink, validating Raoul Pal's ambitious macro predictions for 2026. At the summit, China agreed to buy 200 Boeing commercial jets, US soybeans, and liquefied natural gas. It also effectively extended a trade truce that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had pre-negotiated in October 2025 regarding vital minerals for ASIC and battery manufacturing. Due to traders' aggressive piling into $82,000 call options for the May 29th expiry, Deribit's open interest surpassed BlackRock's EBIT, and Bitcoin reached a 24-hour high of $81,000 as a result of this well-publicized economic alignment.

[00:01:49]In addition to significant AI sector milestones such as X Labs raising $250 million led by a16z and Anthropic achieving the fastest revenue scaling in world history by jumping from $10 billion to $100 billion in a single year, the broader cryptocurrency market recovered for a fifth day in a row propelled by this regulatory and geopolitical hype. Pal claims that these quickly overcoming challenges ahead of the midterms are entirely consistent with his accelerationist framework demonstrating that the real underlying architecture of global financial and technological power is unfolding precisely as he predicted. I've had this whole thesis around this universal code that everything is funneling from energy into intelligence and it's driving the geopolitical process, it's driving the investment process, it's driving literally everything right now.

[00:02:39]And what we're getting into is this funnel moment where this Trump administration which was basically chosen by the accelerationist, if you remember it's backed by the crypto lobby and by all of the Democrats who used to be uh all of the tech overlords who used to be Democrats all flipped because they all knew that this chance was the chance because we're going to by the time we get to the change of administration we will have AGI, [clears throat] we will have crypto everywhere, all of this stuff.

[00:03:10]So, it's been hurtling towards this. Now we're getting to the summer where everything has to resolve.

[00:03:16]Everything has to resolve for Trump for the midterms because again if if um I divided by E continues to play out, I intelligence needs to accelerate then it really has to have the uh Republicans winning the midterms.

[00:03:33]It's not necessary but it's highly the most efficient path for this to happen.

[00:03:38]So, it feels that all obstacles clear out the way. Now, I'm not sure people realize even the government's realize that this is what they're doing but this is what they're doing.

[00:03:46]Trump is getting the Clarity Act across the line as we speak. I said that was going to happen cuz it had to happen cuz the crypto lobby and what needs to happen before the midterms. We will see similar with AI because that's going to come too.

[00:04:01]We have now got the change of Warsh.

[00:04:03]He's been voted in.

[00:04:05]Warsh is the Greenspan appointment of the 1950s appointment. He's going to run it hot.

[00:04:11]We will have um um we will have financial repression and they will let productivity take the sting out of CPI um and keep core CPI lower. That's what they're going to do. That's what Warsh in place. Here's the tech accelerationist. He's a crypto guy. He's a prolific tech investor. He understands the game productivity is the game.

[00:04:34]Trump on the meantime is with Elon, Jensen, and about a hundred others of all of the tech leaders in the United States have all gone to China.

[00:04:43]And Julian and I've talked for a long time about a grand bargain that's coming and we think this is the stage of the grand bargain. Iran, Venezuela was all part of the same picture, which is get the cost of energy lower.

[00:04:56]Get the Chinese, the Japanese, the South Koreans to own as much of the long bonds as possible.

[00:05:02]The [snorts] ESLR takes care of the short end plus stable coins too, which is why stable coins were so important cuz it finances the deficit.

[00:05:10]Trump's going to negotiate here with the Chinese maybe to give them a lower dollar.

[00:05:15]In exchange they will buy the long end.

[00:05:17]Um there'll be some kind of agreements on trade, some agreements on who gets what tech technology. That's why Jensen's there. Um there's going to be some agreements over access to Nvidia.

[00:05:28]This is to avoid going to war over Taiwan, which nobody can do because it slows down the intelligence side because all of the chip fabs are there.

[00:05:37]So there has to be a splitting up of the two regions into the US and China, the only two people who can compete in the AI race. That is what is going on in this negotiation in my belief. The weaker dollar is another part. The UAE being given swap lines, Bison going to South Korea and Japan. They're basically saying, you know, the euro dollar system that lends to China is out of those countries and he's basically going to offer the Chinese liquidity. And the Chinese liquidity will flow through to the system in the same way that we expect global liquidity to come through. It allows the dollar to weaken, which weakens financial conditions. It will allow oil price to come down because there's going to be a agreements on Iran at the end of this. We have Venezuela wrapped in as well.

[00:06:20]This is a very big setup happening and it all has to get done and agreed and see things happening over the summer because the election's coming up. So, it's a crucial time and it seems to be playing out in the business cycle markets charts. It's all uh corroborating this. So, Julian, what you see?

[00:06:42]Um no, I mean I I agree with everything you said. I I touch on small bits of it within MIT, but obviously we wrote a really big piece about this in GMI. The thing that yesterday um during an IC call, one of the questions was, "Where are we in the cycle? Are we late or early?" And I said mid, but I think what's interesting is if we're right about oil and if we're right about the dollar, all of a sudden we're in a situation where we have like almost a a a new breath right of where financial conditions extend the cycle even further into next year.

[00:07:17]And I'm going to write this up in GMI and you did a whole piece on this last month is that the probability of a super cycle is is getting reasonably high now because of this massive cap expend that cannot stop. The race with China is on.

[00:07:34]The administration wants this to happen.

[00:07:36]They need it for votes and everything else. So, they will push for this whole thing.

[00:07:41]Liquidity looks like it'll come in any way, shape, or form. Now, because bill issuance is the main part of the liquidity cycle, we're actually losing cyclicality because of it.

[00:07:53]Even though we've got the big debt rollovers, but we've got 9 trillion to do this year, 9 tr- 10 trillion next year, it's like it's ongoing. So, the point you and I have been talking about for maybe a year and a half, maybe 2 years, is we thought that after this cycle would be a super cycle. And now we're kind of starting to think, you know what? Maybe we don't get a full liquidity down cycle here. Sure, we'll get market corrections, we'll get sideways trends for 6 months, whatever it is.

[00:08:20]But really speaking, we could see an extended, extremely hot business cycle that runs. And the only thing that would null and void that is if the bond market says no way, which is why Bessen is over in China and Japan trying to stop that happening by getting more buyers at the long end. So, if kind of anything over like 5, 5 and 1/2% of 10-year notes, you start to say, okay, this could decouple. But we also know the reaction function is the moment that happens, they do something.

[00:08:51]So, it's kind of they don't want it to happen. They'll use some vague form of yield curve control to keep this happening. So, I kind of am erring towards the super cycle, which is the dangerous thing cuz somebody on here is going to say, you know, after we have some liquidity cycle, you said it was a super cycle.

[00:09:07]I'm not I'm saying probabilistically it's increasing. By limiting access to Nvidia's cutting-edge chips and protecting the crucial fabrication infrastructure both superpowers need to race toward artificial general intelligence, AGI. The historic US-China summit confirmed Raoul Pal's predictive framework and established a grand technological agreement that divides the AI competition into two distinct spheres of influence, averting a disastrous semiconductor war over Taiwan. As proof of concept for this thesis, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's presence in Beijing as a core principle coincides with a significant change in the cryptocurrency derivatives market, where total Bitcoin open interest on Deribit exceeded BlackRock's EBIT holdings, indicating that sophisticated leveraged options volume has officially surpassed institutional spot ETF allocation.

[00:09:54]Despite recent bond sell-offs and ETF outflows, traders are aggressively positioning for a breakout toward $82,000 call options ahead of a massive $6 billion options expiry on May 29th rather than retreating to the $75,000 maximum pain level. This is driving a five-day crypto rebound driven by derivatives activity and gains in privacy-centric and quantum-resistant coins. By drawing a comparison between the current economic environment and Alan Greenspan's appointment in 1987, Powell places this sophisticated front-running market positioning within a larger historical framework. He suggests that the current macro environment is about to enter a mirroring era of structural disinflation, intense financial innovation, and technology-driven productivity gains that will determine Bitcoin's trajectory through 2026 and 2027.

[00:10:42]Anthropic now looks like it's going to go from 44 billion to 50 billion, which makes it like a 100% year-on-year uh rate of change that's happening. Their compute is that completely out of compute. I can see it in my cloud.

[00:11:00]They've had to negotiate from Elon, plus get a bunch of other compute. Jensen's telling us AMD are telling us, Intel are telling us just the endless amount of compute cuz Jevons' paradox is paying out is the more compute you give people, the cheaper it is, the more people want, and it's never going to stop. So, unless there's a complete paradigm shift the demand for this um semi-cycle is going to be at least into 2030 and beyond. Well, and the demand, as you say, is already here. That's what's very different to this build-out versus like the internet or rail, you know, or anything, is that it that demand was all speculative, right? But the demand is already here.

[00:11:45]So, it changes the entire cycle. Um so, yeah, things are coming together. In terms of things I'm looking at, um let me move you over here. Just pulling up a couple couple charts.

[00:11:57]So, let me share.

[00:12:00]So, I'll just start um I'll start by by just talking about Bitcoin. And then I'll kind of move out the curve and talk a little bit about equities, but this is basically the same chart I've been showing repeatedly on these shows, and what I've been watching is this um 120-day exponential moving average. And you can see that basically we tapped against that here, you know, rejected.

[00:12:25]We tapped against it here, rejected, of course, but, you know, managed to stabilize, and now we're well above that. And if anything, I think if we just zoom into this, I mean, this looks a lot like a bull flag to me.

[00:12:37]Don't know how how you you're thinking about it, but so that does stick.

[00:12:40]>> it does.

[00:12:41]So, that's Bitcoin.

[00:12:43]And then if I look at ETH, it's a similar setup, but we're not yet free.

[00:12:49]Um because here's the exponential moving average, and you can see the the compression going on here. Yeah. Um and we really need to clear, call it 2,400, but that's kind of level that I'm watching there. XUI is just what a move we had on Sunday.

[00:13:05]Um but if I zoom in a bit, I don't know.

[00:13:08]Looks like a bullish falling wedge to me. It's It's consolidating before the next move, I would say. Yeah, I agree.

[00:13:14]Um deep a little further out the risk curve. Again, these patterns are really interesting because these symmetrical triangle patterns, because it's either um like traditional technical analysis, it's either a continuation pattern or a reversal, so they're a bit difficult to to play, which is why sometimes you could do like a straddle or a butterfly, you know, in options, which is basically just you get to play either move. Um but in this case it's broken higher, come down to retest, and it's had a pretty what's up 3% today. Tau, I don't know how you're drawing your your bit tensor charts, but this looks, you know, pretty good to me.

[00:13:51]Hype just a series of you know, continuation consolidations.

[00:13:56]Um and then I touched on Doge last time.

[00:14:00]I think this chart still looks good.

[00:14:04]Yeah, don't disagree. And then going over to um you know, equities. I mean, look circle I mean, that's like such a fabulous chart.

[00:14:14]It is, and we added at the pro tier at 56 dollars. So, we bought here. Um so, we're up well over 100%, but the point is is that if we're right about where we're going with everything here, people are really still underestimating this story.

[00:14:29]Um and the chart's kind of telling you that, isn't it? It's Yeah. huge inverse head and shoulders pattern.

[00:14:35]And this chart is not pricing in the speed of which stable coins are going to grow and are growing. It's as simple as that. It's an easy story. It's just not there. It's just not priced.

[00:14:45]Raoul Pal describes a macroeconomic scenario for 2026 that draws parallels to Alan Greenspan's 1987 monetary policy. In this scenario, newly appointed Warsh is anticipated to run the economy hot, allowing AI-driven productivity to offset consumer price index CPI inflation while using financial repression, negative real interest rates, to inflate nominal asset prices and reduce government debt. In order to manage a declining dollar, this framework relies on regulatory changes like the ESLR rule to force banks into treasuries, stable coins to finance deficits, and strategic swap lines alongside recently unlocked Chinese liquidity. The result is a coordinated global liquidity expansion that provides Bitcoin with an unprecedented tailwind.

[00:15:31]Citing Anthropic's historic revenue growth from $10 billion to $100 billion in a single year, Powell highlights the swift shift into a hyper-efficient intelligence economy and makes the case that Bitcoin and decentralized finance DeFi will unavoidably function as the native machine speed monetary infrastructure for autonomous AI agents as businesses transform energy into highly valued intelligence. Powell claims that these political barriers must be removed before the midterm elections in order to appease the powerful crypto lobby and establish a justifiable bipartisan path forward despite the current political tension surrounding Senator Tillis's ethics clause in the Clarity Act regarding Trump's personal cryptocurrency holdings. In the end, this regulatory development coincides with a massive dual catalyst that is scheduled to occur on May 29th. The combination of a $6 billion options expiration and a $5 billion FTX bankruptcy distribution.

[00:16:26]This event is expected to reintroduce highly committed capital into the cryptocurrency ecosystem at the same time that the global liquidity wave is taking off.