Market Report - 13 May 2026 | The close

追加: 2026-05-14

[00:00:07]Welcome back. Now, let's get some greater insight of those market moves now of Andrew Padayachy from Auto 1890.

[00:00:15]Andrew, hi. Good to chat to you on the close. Of course, the big story is Donald Trump in China. I see he has landed. He's climbed off Air Force One.

[00:00:25]The flags are moving. But, what do you make of this? Because the markets are very cautious at the moment.

[00:00:33]Yeah, fair point, Gray. I think this is the first time they've actually met since 2017 or the first since 2017 that Trump's been in in China with his entourage there with Elon and Jensen.

[00:00:44]Um look, I think they've got a lot to talk about given what's going on in Iran. I think at least they've they've both got um common interest there. I think they really need that strait to open.

[00:00:54]It's affecting China. It's affecting the states. It's affecting the whole world.

[00:00:57]So, I'm sure that'll be a major talking point. My understanding is also that the Chinese exporters are more worried about this whole strait of Hormuz thing than the actual UF tariffs US tariffs. So, yeah, they've got lots to discuss today.

[00:01:10]So, let's see what happens. Let's see what happens. We'll know this time I suppose tomorrow.

[00:01:14]Something else, US inflation. That that prints a lot hotter than we than we were expecting. This does not bode well for the Fed and others. What do you think's going to happen? I mean, the US Fed many saying they won't touch their rate.

[00:01:30]Mhm.

[00:01:31]So, with Kevin Warsh coming into the scene, I think it's it's unlikely he's going to be raising rates. But, I you know, coming into this year, not just in the states, but in in South Africa as well, we were expecting some rate cuts. You know, maybe two, maybe three. Um Trump was talking about how this whole deal with Iran is on life support. Well, I think that the hope of rate cuts is dead. Um I don't think that's going to happen in the states. You've got US CPI 3.8% going the wrong way. Energy prices are a serious issue and that's obviously what's affecting the inflation rate. So, yeah, it's a difficult job for the new man that's going to be coming into the the hot seat there in the states.

[00:02:13]But I don't think we're going to be seeing any any rate cuts in a while.

[00:02:16]Yeah, not for a while that is. And also as well, Eurozone GDP, in fact, quite a few figures out today. Your thoughts?

[00:02:25]Yeah, my understanding expanded by 0.1%.

[00:02:29]But you know, I think they were expecting 0.2. So, even if they hit 0.2, you know, it's there's not a lot going on in Europe. It's it's a pity, eh? If if we just look at the best companies in the world and and what's going on with AI and tech, there's not a lot of that stuff coming out of Europe. You know, what Europe's got is, you know, one or two pockets of excellence. You've got some luxury goods companies that are under a bit of pressure now, given what's happening in China. You've got car manufacturers in Germany that are now having to, you know, reinvent themselves given the competition in China.

[00:02:58]So, it's yeah, it's a it's a tricky place in Europe and you've also got, like you've got in the states, you've got high inflation. So, now what do you do if you're in the central bank of of Europe? So, it's it's it's a tough situation they've got there. Yeah, it really is. Right, some things are making news headlines today to pull up properties, that was one. I mean, there has been some good news today.

[00:03:19]Yeah, that's not too bad to see. I think it was revenue up 7%.

[00:03:23]I saw some costs had gone up just given with rates increases in South Africa, but thankfully on the finance side, they've managed to kind of make some changes there. So, they they they're financing costs have come down.

[00:03:36]So, that's why we saw a bit of margin expansion and earnings up 20%. But yeah, so nice to see a decent set of results from them. Yeah, then Anglo topping that one trillion market cap. I thought that's quite extraordinary, actually.

[00:03:48]But it's it also is is on what they're doing at the moment.

[00:03:53]Yeah, and it's incredible to see, you know, the likes of the Anglos, the Billiton, and Glencore is a kind of on my radar. Those three, you know, your big diversified miners.

[00:04:02]And yeah, great to see, but let's see how things play out with the whole tech merger. Yeah, absolutely. I think you know, especially with Anglo American, they've this whole tech merger like you say. A lot of people looking at tech, they're not having a look at Anglo American anymore. They're looking at the big merger. And it actually is exciting stuff.

[00:04:22]Well, I suppose it's all about the copper story going forward, you know, that's what we're kind of seeing. It's it's the move into the green the green energy. It's what's It's the energy we need for the AI infrastructure build-out. And so, you know, that's what we've seen with Glencore, Billiton, and Anglos as well. They're all kind of shifting to this to become copper plays.

[00:04:39]Yeah, absolutely.

[00:04:41]The resilient rand, and I call it the resilient rand, has started the day at 1645 to the greenback now 1642. Andrew, what is driving this? How we thought that emerging market currencies would be casualties of war, but not in this case.

[00:04:58]Well, I think what we've seen is is markets have kind of moved on from the Iran conflict, you know, March was a really difficult month for the rand as well as as markets. So, you know, we've seen a bit of recovery. I don't think we're out the woods yet.

[00:05:11]Um there's still a there's still a lot going on there.

[00:05:14]But, look, the rand's been really strong in the months leading up to this, and it's likely, from everything I'm seeing, as soon as the the conflict in Iran is kind of sorted out, the rand may continue to strengthen against the dollar.

[00:05:26]Before I forget, Equitas selling their UK assets is something I wanted to discuss with you. Interesting move.

[00:05:32]>> Yes.

[00:05:33]It is an interesting move. Um they've sold it all, and they're all bringing it back to South Africa strategically. I think Look, it makes sense, you know, if you if you're an investor, whether you're purchasing property or you have your own share portfolio, everything is an opportunity cost. If you find something better, then sell the sell the laggards and find your better opportunity and purchase that. So, I suppose that's what they've done. Yeah.

[00:05:57]Tencent's Q1 report. Now, a lot of focus on Tencent at the moment. Prosus, if you can look at the wider picture as well.

[00:06:04]People criticizing Prosus. Their stock price yesterday didn't do what I thought it was going to do, but as somebody pointed out to me, Ray, look at the finer detail in that. Your thoughts on Tencent?

[00:06:17]So, the Tencent results that came out today, I think it's it's similar to what we're seeing in the states with some of the the big hyper scalers. Big capex spending on the go and the markets want to see returns on investment. We're starting to see that with the likes of with Alphabet, we're seeing it with Amazon, and shareholders have been rewarded with those two companies. But, if we look at the likes of a Meta and a Microsoft, big spending, um but the share prices haven't followed. I think the jury's still out there, and I think it's a similar story with Tencent. But, I think the the returns will come. They're just not there yet. Yeah. All right, Andrew, what's your stock pick? What are you actually looking at at the moment?

[00:06:55]So, I think given the pullback with the war in Iran, Airbus is a company that we really like. You know, it's round about 170 euros a share. You know, very very high barriers to entry. It's Airbus and Boeing. There's no one else in this department and no foreseeable future competition. And they've got over 9,000 plans to build, so they've got a 10-year runway.

[00:07:14]Sure. Great stock pick. You can't go wrong with Airbus. Andrew, thank you so much. Good to chat to you on the close this evening. Good to have you with us.

[00:07:22]That was Andrew Padoa from Auto 1819.