High Voter Turnout In Bengal & The Vijay Factor In Tamil Nadu | Bengal Elections | TN Elections

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[00:00:00]Just want to ask uh Rajat and Sajjan normally high voter turnout traditional conventional wisdom anti-inccumbal though is a state which has regularly had high voter turnouts very politicized both sides will therefore claim one side as priti said will claim we mobilized ouras the other side will say it's a it's a suggest anger and fatigue against the ruling government both could be true which one do you think is more likely >> so Rajiv this thesis around higher uh voting uh results in anti-incumbency impact showcasing on the polling booth is a bygone era. It's the '9s that we're talking about when polling percentages used to be very low only when there was a genuine anger of the voters that they used to come out on the streets. But the fundamental shift that has happened the competitiveness around uh Indian politics has gone to a level where it is not a marker anymore. In fact, there are lot of peer-reviewed papers that have been published that there is no correlation between anti-inccumby and polling percentages at all. So, you cannot come out and categorically say that if it is anti-inccumb. So, but one thing that is established uh in in in such a scenario is that both the parties have used their organizational base to ensure that every single voter that they have marked is actually coming down to the polling station and voting. So it is the organizational might of two organizations TMC and the BJP which has been unleashed uh uh on the polling day and also it's a fiercely intense election. I mean I was just quoting if you look at the uh the flight tickets flights going into Kolkata 20,000 25,000 rupees all booked uh the trains going into Kolkata all choked. uh this is the reason why everybody feels that you know participating in this election I mean is a is one issue but just being just being part of this infranchising exercise is so vital for the Bengali voters that they have gone out and voted uh and it's a win of of of democracy >> okay uh Sajjan you want a quick response to that high voter turnout who would it logically benefit >> uh difficult to say but let me tell you in Bengal people do not speak they whisper you know they give you codes so for both the camps the committ Ed voters given one hint that it's now or never moment for both even for the ones who wanted BJP to come the one who wanted TMC to be there. So one thing is clear that higher voter turnout despite factoring sir is because every side of the voter has come out and voted and therefore uh of the three m factor which we may discuss later mahilas were hedging right so they will decide but certainly at this juncture very difficult to say >> okay so the mahila vote of course we look at the gender turnout in the first phase there was a marginal increase in comparison to male voters more women had voted but it was marginal and remember in the overall voter base of Bengal men outnumber women so you've got to keep that also into account when you look at uh the numbers in West Bengal but there are two main contenders and there was a battle for Babanipur in the heart of Kolkata where Ma Banerjee started in a way her political career it is where she lives or uh it is her home in that sense but Shuendu Adikari of the BJP her one-time aid has taken the battle right into her own home. Listening to both Suendu and Mta Banerjee who are on the streets today >> and CRT cannot torture like this. See no state police is there. What?

[00:03:32]>> None of the boots are safe.

[00:03:33]>> None of the boots all their all they have captured. Is it their duty? They should they should secure the border instead of secure the border they securing one political party. I'm sorry.

[00:03:46]I have never seen this type of thing because in my life I'm fighting my election since 1984 at terrible atrocity from yesterday night they started atrocities and they arrested so many of it is a contempt of sending but I have never seen this type of democracy but instead of that I'm They have gimed the press media that victory is here and is WINNING BANGLADESH Bangladesh Bangladesh Muslim Okay. So you can see the high stakes battle. Now Maria, you interviewed Shuvindu Adikari. You heard him there when you know the moment he was surrounded by people. He said Bangladeshi Musulad. Has he made that pitch that if Bengal if the BJP comes to power the first thing they will do is tackle the so-called Guspetia election?

[00:05:03]Did you see communal polarization on the ground?

[00:05:06]>> So infiltration is a pan Bengal sentiment according to the BJP. They have tried to make that a talking point across the state. That's the question that I did ask Shuendu Adikari and I asked also other BJP leaders. But Rajep when we look at the BJP's campaign, they say that infiltration, yes, they are also looking at other ways to reach out to the Bengali uh voters which includes the sentiments which has to do with nationalism as much as polarization. So nationalism issues of national security and national security being linked to infiltration.

[00:05:41]>> Interesting. And uh more difficult to track Ma Banerjee down and Abhishek Banerjee. But what is the sense you got from the TMC? Are they nervous given the fact that the PJP has put all their efforts into this election as they do most elections? But they made the effort. You've had the prime minister eating Jalmuri. You've had Anurak Takur having having Machi. They seem to have made that effort to push the TMC on the back foot on this whole Bengali versus outsider plank. How do you see the way Ma Banerjee has been responding to a Suendo Adikar in Babaripur? Not an easy seat when it comes to the demographics, but a seat which traditionally the TMC has won.

[00:06:20]>> You know, Rajep, of course, the TMC is nervous. You can see that there's 15 years of anti-incumbency. There is sir.

[00:06:26]You really don't know how it's going to cut. So, there are reasons for the TMC to be nervous. Polarization. the last time it didn't quite work. Will it work this time? There is a sense and you can see it the more you have a suadikari who will go across and say uh Guspetier Bangladeshi Muslim more uh they're hoping that at least the Hindu vote consolidates and the pick of the BJP only comes from the Hindu vote. Let's look at the statistics Raji last time they got about 30 38.3%. It largely came in from the 70% Hindu vote. You do the math, they already have about 55% of the Hindu vote. Now they need to really maximize that because it doesn't seem at the back of SIR at the back of the kind of campaign that they have run that they're getting any vote from the Muslim section. So there is polarization. Ma Banerjee is you know somebody said it really well needs majority of the minority minority of the majority and will she get that minority of the majority and in that is another M factor that we discussed which is Mahila. Now that would matter and let's see how that goes.

[00:07:26]>> I will give that to Prashant Kish.

[00:07:29]Rashan Kish was the one who said this five six years ago when he was with Bumab Banerjee that to win Bengal >> it still holds >> majority of the minority and minority of the majority but we will see how that plays out because remember there are three other states at a union territory and they've already voted and there is plenty of excitement in each of the states none more so than in one of the states that Axita treats as a home state the wonderful state of Tamil Nadu where Axita the man whom everyone is looking at closely. Vijay uh was today in Shiri Saiaba temple. Uh he's been on a temple run ever since the voting ended. Explain to our viewers the Vijay factor. Is your attention over the next couple of hours going to be how well or how badly or who has Vijay really affected? Could he be king or king maker?

[00:08:20]>> 200% my attention is on the Wii factor as we've been calling it Rajib. Why?

[00:08:24]Because he's made this election interesting. what would have otherwise been a foregone conclusion of who's going to win has now become so interesting because there are so many questions how what why for which none of us really have any answers you know as far as this temple run optics go I will say that Vijay has been someone who's visited the tirandur lord murugan temple for the last many years he's a devity of that temple shield sai baba temple again a temple he's visited constantly so it's not really time to the election since voting also came to an end uh you know why I'm watching out for the we factor Rajep is not just King, king maker. But there's a very interesting we curse in Tamadu politics. And you know a senior politician I was speaking to in Tamaradu mentioned this uh that we any name that starts with we in Tamadu has never done well. Uh Vijay Kant >> Mhm.

[00:09:10]>> Vo GK Vasan uh none of them have ever been able to do well. So if Vijay wins and does well, he's also broken a jinx that's been very very prominent in Tamil Nadu politics. Yeah, we're also looking at the various actors uh politicians who've done uh who who who you've got MGR who was in a league of his own remember and then you had Vijay Kant who of course was captain as they called him and then you've had Kamalasan who really was not able to make a breakthrough now eventually is a Rajya Sabha member associated with the DMK but overall do you s did you sense when you were on the streets of Tamil Nadu that kind of excitement over this election because of the Vijay factor Has he in a sense broken the duopoly of the true Dravidian parties?

[00:09:56]>> There are two things here Raj. One is you know when I was in the newsroom about one and a half months ago when people came up to me and said what will Vijay do? I constantly said don't think he'll have much of an impact. The second I hit the ground the buzzword everywhere was Vijay and you know it's either people saying we'll vote for him or asking me what will be his impact. You know we want to see how Vijay will do.

[00:10:17]Another factor here is the gensification of this election in Tamil Nadu. The youth have never been more energized by an election than this time in Tamil Nadu and that's going to be a big factor. So while we speak of the V factor, I believe that's closely interlin to the Y factor in Tamil Nadu as well.

[00:10:32]>> It's very interesting because you've got the Sire factor which is the big imponderable in West Bengal. Uh you've got the Vijay factor with 40% of Tamil Nadu under the age of 40. So there's a large voting percentage of youth. I I was at a idli shop and these youngsters had finished running a marathon in the heat of Chennai and I I went to each of them and they were excited about the fact that Vijay was contesting they didn't quite know what Vijay stood for barring change. So the ch the word was what do you call piata in in Bengali?

[00:11:06]What what's the word in tab?

[00:11:07]>> Matramenu.

[00:11:07]>> Matram venu.

[00:11:08]>> Matum wenu.

[00:11:09]>> So that's the word for change.

[00:11:10]>> That's what you constantly are on the ground. I heard it constantly they like mumu. We want change. It's excit you know it's interesting to see this phenomenon because actors uh as I said uh there Rajat have not really been able to make the impact since the great MGR and MGR also as one film historian reminded me had spent 20 25 years in the travidian movement before he made his big breakthrough in 1975 Vijay his first day first show box office hit is he going to be that or not that's one of the reasons why this exit poll is going to be looked at carefully it's a real going to be a nightmare for pollsters how do you pred predict a new factor in politics.

[00:11:48]>> That is right Rajib. And also we need to keep in mind that fans are not cadre.

[00:11:54]There is a difference because you have to slog out on that day >> to ensure that voters are marked. They are taken down to the police station. H sorry the polling station and >> you're watching too much Bengal news.

[00:12:06]>> Sorry about that. That's >> okay. But you know going back to this but there's BEEN HIGH VOTER TURNOUT IN TAMIL NADU as well. It's crossed 30%. So in the heat of Tamil Nadu something has excited the voters% 85% >> you say about 3% of it is beyond the s impact >> right so a substantial vote there >> but see socopolitical embedding in a society takes time it doesn't happen overnight and I think this is where these these actors they run out of patience theory apply in Tamil Nadu that no that won't work because >> he doesn't have You need you need a machinery. You need the sustenance to be able to do that. That's why I already said last film where you getting the money from you know political pressure.

[00:12:52]If you're sitting and saying I will not have any allies I will not join hands with anyone. It's impossible. This is a do or die election.

[00:12:58]>> You see there is there is one person who broke who broke your uh what you just said about Kashi and that was NTR NT Ramar and uh there's a great story. I mean India Today's magazine at the time Roy was doing the poll for India today at the time and they could see the numbers of a surge for NTR but they got scared they were not sure how far do we go here is this guy who's taking on this mighty Congress machine as it was and so they played safe guess what NTR won a big MAJORITY SO FIRST ELECTION >> FIRST WITHIN 6 months of forming the Telugu I mean that NTR was is the one guy first day first show super hit >> but what was the sentiment the sentiment was Telugu gaam telugu pride sure >> you know that is something that's already been juiced to death in Tamil Nadu it's something that parties already have for >> vij we'll just cut across to mtab banji who's speaking now that the voting is over in west Bengal CRPF interesting uh all the political leaders of West Bengal now claiming victory.

[00:14:26]Remember only one side eventually can win. Uh the actor phenomenon of course is something which is unique in some ways. actor politician to uh Tamil Nadu.

[00:14:35]We have stars and actors of another kind in different states. Politicians know how to play to the camera all the time.

[00:14:41]But there's a third and fourth state that we're going to look at Kerala. And there's much at stake in in Kerala as well in this election Priy because for the Congress party here is a party which since 2024 has had defeat after defeat in in state elections. Hana >> which most people believed including Priti Chri and me that that the Congress was going to win because there was a general hava so-called hava for the congress never worked out in Kerala also now congressman already seem to be wondering who's going to be the chief minister without the results having come in what's the sense how important do you think Kerala is in the context of all the states that we are going to look at today uh is it is in a way make or break for the congress they would have otherwise lost three consecutive elections >> but Raji they put all their eggs in the Kerala basket because they have at least assumed that Asam's not coming their way because there is also Asam in the food.

[00:15:32]>> We'll come to Asam in a moment.

[00:15:33]>> We'll come to Asam in a in a while but yes so you know so they put all their eggs in one basket which is Kerala but even Keralam Keral get and you can see that but there is also a little bit of I would think the Congress could have done better look at the number of rallies that Rahul Gandhi addressed. Look at the time Priyanka Gandhi spent there. It could have been more. I think they could have carpet bombed better where Keralam was concerned. I think that was wanting then there was >> Ram Gandhi is saving the forest in Niko Nikobar at the moment. Okay. But go ahead.

[00:16:07]>> That's a that okay that's a j that >> NO, NO. IT'S A good issue. It's a good GOOD ISSUE TO TAKE BUT BUT YOU KNOW BUT but if I look at it but if I look at it Rahul Gandhi didn't do a single rally with MK's talent together joint rally in Tamilad even though they all on the day West Bengal was polling put out a video attacking the TMC and MTA their so-called India alliances did five rallies in Assam in all and Kerala did a few more but as you're right the stakes are very high >> but the stakes are high he could have spent more time they >> was also pin vijayan versus who remember Rajep in 2020 21 here is the man who actually broke the 40-year-old political cycle of Kerala going alternate way.

[00:16:46]>> Yeah.

[00:16:47]>> So it is Pinere Vijan who is on the ticket here. So it could I'm not too sure how the UDF would be doing but because Mr. Vijay has too much at stake here. It it is an election which will be >> ultimately this was a if you ask me a sitter 6 months ago if anyone asked who's going to win Keralum they said UDF is going to sweep this. Now the scenario has changed so much simply because of the effort Pinar Vij has put in which was lacking on the other side. The aggression with which the LDF said look after what happened to the local body polls we'll go all out. We will ensure that we kind of reawaken all of our Carter and reshake up our system. You don't see that from the UDF. What should have been a sitter is now a close contest. It's a close contest but Rajep I still think that the Congress has a a chance. I think they have the edge in Kerala but despite of having an edge this could have been their election >> after hana never say Congress has any edge >> that's true I agree the Congress has >> hana you know the ability to score self goals never fingers yet so I say two consecutive elections sir you know we'll wait and see the Kerala numbers remember all these numbers on the exit poll coming soon my access my India will be throw will be giving us the numbers but Sanj you travel through Asam a state that often gets lost because it's caught with these other three big states that go but is equally important in many ways because Sarma is also looking to carve out a slice of history uh win two consecutive elections uh win an election as a chief minister after you know after 2021 two consecutive elections not easy to get re-elections in Indian politics but do what is at stake in Assam >> uh what is at stake in Assam for BJP is whether it would be hattrick or not and especially after UDF has been exposed in one of the Rajya Sabha election wherein their MLAs were showing cross voting for BJP and in Lok Sabha election remember the MIA Muslims you know voty the savior Badhrudi Najal lost the Lok Sabha election by highest ever margin across the country by a margin of 10 lakh votes more than 10 lakh votes it was expected the consolidation of more than 35% and people say it's almost 40%. Muslims will catapult Congress. This this was the expectation. Two, it was also expected that when Gorav Goi was there, he will bring the home who have this losing out when BJP came to power, right? The upper or something. So these all combination were expected to bring election as a very closely contested election. But what happened on the ground that while the image of incumbent CM has taken a hit because of what they call it's not BJP anymore it's conjp Congress Janata party especially after Prahud Bullay but nevertheless it is a choice between incumbent BJP and Congress which has lost the imagination. Sajjun can I just come in here because I spent a you know quite a bit of time there and I get all the points that you're making but let's address the elephant but that is not in the room and that's delimitation in Assam and I think Assam will prove as one of the fear factors on why the opposition is so wary of delimitation.

[00:19:59]2023 delimitation takes place in Assam Rajep 26 constituencies are wiped out 23 new constituencies are made 34 constituencies where the Muslim vote was significant is reduced to 24 constituencies. A home vote is also neutralized in upper Assan which was seen that possibly it could go to the way of the Congress. So there is a sense of distrust at the back of and you know what is amazing is Rajip was on ground and Sajjun you might have seen this when you are in when you're in one constituency it's spread in five pockets there are five pockets you have to go from one pocket you enter another constituency then you go back to the original constituency factors two more factors quickly one >> 40 lakh women getting 9,000 in their account this is new this is not a continuation and two 3.5 lakh >> bananis tea tribes getting families getting the ownership right >> can I also add to that Raj 75% of asmme today 75 you know I remember sitting with Koshik Dika our uh you know uh northeast bureau chief and doing the math 75% of asmemes are touched by some scheme or the other where the government is concerned very popular in terms of deliverance >> it's tina factor we we're going to wait for asam numbers we have 2 minutes to go before we have which is the state you're most closely which you're going to watch most closely which you think is going to be most exciting Rajat Very quickly, what's the state that you're going to be look at?

[00:21:21]>> This boils down to your second state, your uh your Sasural, which is West Bengal.

[00:21:25]>> You think West Bengal is the one you're going to look at most?

[00:21:27]>> Absolutely. I think that's the the closest.

[00:21:29]>> That's the closest one that you're going to look at. Axita.

[00:21:31]>> Tamadu. No doubt about it.

[00:21:32]>> Tamil Nadu.

[00:21:33]>> West Bengal because I spent maximum time there. Kerala, I'm excited about it.

[00:21:38]>> You're excited about Kerala.

[00:21:39]Interesting. God actually go and Bengal. Okay, that's true. I'm looking at four states and don't forget there's a union territory of Puruchererry as well a wonderful little part of the country all these five states we'll be giving you the exit poll findings the access my India findings as well as a poll of polls so there's plenty to look forward to we have a couple of minutes to go before we look at the numbers that are going to take place remember we've got Puruchererry where last time the BJPled alliance NDA had won the election so the NDA will be the party and Rangasw Swami, very good tennis player by the way.