The Market Won't Stop Going Higher - What Happens Next? The Bat & Uncle Tony's take on this Rally

Añadido: 2026-05-31

[00:00:00]Excellent.

[00:00:02]So, hey, let's talk about the markets a little bit.

[00:00:06]>> Oh, I'd love to.

[00:00:07]>> What do you think about this 9 weeks that we have uh been I don't want to say enjoying?

[00:00:15]>> Well, I mean, it's it's been a boom. I I mean, I think for retail investors, it's certainly been a boom for for everyone, right? I mean, we can't deny uh that most of the uh traders in the whole world are are are net long, right?

[00:00:30]I mean, that that's just a that's just a given, right? So, I mean, I think from a from a standpoint of view of the of the public in the world, it's a great thing for trading. I mean, if you stepped in front of anything here, which I think we have talked about on the show >> Yeah.

[00:00:46]>> uh all the time, you know, let's not sell naked calls. You want to sell a call spread, sure, go right ahead. If you don't want to sell a call spread, probably not do anything, and it's probably saved some people some money.

[00:00:57]Sometimes the trades that you don't make are the ones that uh are really the ones that save you money, or the trades that you avoid. I mean, if you had any kind of position in Dell or MU, any kind of strategic position, you know, you you you got ran over. I mean, there's no other way to put it.

[00:01:12]>> So, I I I just put up a chart of the weekly SPX.

[00:01:17]>> Mhm.

[00:01:18]>> It's been 9 I want to say effing weeks, but we have ladies in the in the project, so >> [laughter] >> So, we have 9 weeks of just pure pain for normal traders. For long traders, it's been pure joy, right?

[00:01:34]>> Sure. Sure. Sure.

[00:01:35]>> I mean, I can't believe it. March 23rd, which coincidentally, you know, COVID, the low was March 22nd.

[00:01:46]>> Okay, it's good to know.

[00:01:48]>> So, once again, March 23rd, we we stopped going down, and look at that, 9 weeks total.

[00:01:57]>> Yeah, it's unbelievable. I I mean, I held some We've talked about this, held some long delta on the way down, kept it for about 4 or 5 weeks, and then had long delta this whole time through, but a minuscule amount compared to what the what we were down at the bottom. So, I mean, you can't time it You can't time it all, but I riding the wave, right? I mean, even today on on my last roll up I did, you know, I said, you know, my puts that I'm short are down to a $1.50, and they got, you know, 20 some odd days left.

[00:02:27]It's It's time to go. You know, you get You got to roll. Sometimes you can't, you know, roll when the timing's perfect. You got to roll when you have to, and this is one of those times when you had to roll when you had to.

[00:02:36]>> 21%.

[00:02:39]Tone.

[00:02:40]21% in 9 weeks.

[00:02:43]>> Unbelievable. And look at the volatility, you know, you're under 15 in the in June, and >> It's gone.

[00:02:49]>> Yeah, 16 and a half out in July.

[00:02:51]>> Look at that. Look at that. Went down to 15.

[00:02:55]>> But, it is interesting when you go to the leaps, cuz we did that leap trade today, and maybe we could talk a little bit about it later today. You You're going out into November, December, January of next year, and volatility's in the in the 20s. So, you you're not as much as you think going into the leaps that you're buying leaps when it's cheap, they're really not cheap relative to the front month. Either the front month is extremely cheap, which I think is >> Yeah.

[00:03:22]>> an easy easy statement to make.

[00:03:24]Well, the back month is a little expensive, and if you think that we're going to continue to rally for the rest of the year, or at least stay at these levels, or inside a standard deviation, then maybe those leaps are a little expensive.

[00:03:35]>> They They look expensive, because you know, you're right, the IVs are around 20, and right now we're, you know, much less than that, which is a >> And you got So, now So, now you got to couple that with what's the average implied volatility, Tone?

[00:03:47]What would you say? Just across the board, what the average volatility is?

[00:03:51]>> I would say 17.

[00:03:52]>> Yeah, around around 17. So, the back month is a little bit more elevated, usually maybe 18 and a half or 19. So, on that basis, it's probably a little bit elevated in the back month. So, people are paying for insurance longer longer dated is really what it comes down to.

[00:04:09]>> Yeah, you're right.

[00:04:11]Thank Thank you, Gilbert. You know, these are my my Grow Your Pile account.

[00:04:18]Thank you very much for uh But, you're right. The account numbers, when I edit the video, I want to highlight those.

[00:04:25]>> [laughter] >> Right now, everybody here is part of the family.

[00:04:29]But, but you're right. I'm going to I'm going to try to hide them. You were watching You know, you're right. You're watching the Grow Your Pile portfolios anyways.

[00:04:38]>> Yeah.

[00:04:38]>> So, but just put them as as hidden or whatever.

[00:04:41]>> Yeah, exactly. So, what do you think Well, no one like Tom says, no one cares what you think.

[00:04:48]>> No, nobody cares what you think, right?

[00:04:49]>> think it's possible to keep going?

[00:04:52]I mean, >> Well, I think it could be a a buy the rumor, sell the news kind of thing. Although, my my technicians who write me in today said you have a spinning top today on a daily chart, which is just as good as a dose a gravestone doji, which is just as good as any other technical analysis because they all suck until they work, right?

[00:05:16]But, we have a spinning top. So, that could sig- signal a little bit of a of a of capitulation. But, from a technician's point of view, but if I look at it just from a math point of view, you know, volatility was in huge again today. It's been contracting every day. Even today when we, you know, when we got down to only up where we closed like, you know, nine nine dollars or even when we were we were down last night for for a time for a little time being, we only got up to 18 on volatility, which is up 10 cents.

[00:05:48]Really small move in volatility. So I don't think um I mean I think a pullback would be warranted. I mean 1 2% 3% would be fun to get everybody starting to talk and and and in the in the universe. But right now it looks like smooth sailing.

[00:06:06]You got What what's the catalyst? I mean other than price. Oil's down.

[00:06:11]Bonds are up.

[00:06:14]Gold looks looks relatively inexpensive.

[00:06:17]Silver looks relatively inexpensive. I mean when you can you know when you compare them from from what the market's done silver's gone nowhere.

[00:06:25]Gold's gone nowhere.

[00:06:27]Market's gone higher. Bonds are fine again. You're you're all good there.

[00:06:33]Oil is uh better. I mean you know nobody likes $87 oil but it's but it's better than than 110.

[00:06:43]>> Look at oil. Oil is down.

[00:06:45]>> Yeah.

[00:06:45]>> Let's look at bonds.

[00:06:48]You know bonds bonds are now rallying meaning interest rates are going to go down.

[00:06:55]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[00:06:57]Well well they're not in the 110 handle anymore. You know what I mean?

[00:07:00]>> Right. Right.

[00:07:02]Gold is getting hammered because of interest rates.

[00:07:05]>> Yeah it's gone it's gone nowhere. Yeah.

[00:07:07]Right.

[00:07:08]>> But you know what scares me is this last candle. I'm not a technician.

[00:07:13]>> Mhm.

[00:07:14]>> I just like to look at that last candle.

[00:07:16]Look how we gapped up and we did not look back.

[00:07:20]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[00:07:22]>> All the other weeks we kind of retrace a little bit into the body of the previous week. This week we didn't even have a chance to go back to last week's level.

[00:07:33]>> That's your That's your spinning top that they all talk about.

[00:07:36]>> I mean that's that's a runaway train. I don't know if it's a I mean I'm just looking >> Well Dell Dell gaps up 100, you know, the market's not I mean not that Dell is the big market leader by the way.

[00:07:48]There's not a lot of Dell stock out there.

[00:07:50]>> at this Dell. Look at this.

[00:07:51]>> Right. But you're not going to you know, and you had Microsoft today, you know, up big. You you you you're not going to get a I mean, I bet the breath wasn't that great today. I didn't look at what the breath was today, but I but I bet the breath wasn't that great today.

[00:08:03]>> Look at our nemesis, MU.

[00:08:05]>> Yeah. I mean, it's unbelievable.

[00:08:07]>> Well, not my nemesis, our friend Shark.

[00:08:10]>> Jesus nemesis.

[00:08:11]>> Yes. Yes. Yes.

[00:08:12]>> AMD.

[00:08:14]>> Yeah, it's the usual suspects. I mean >> Nvidia. Oh, Nvidia.

[00:08:19]>> Yeah, Nvidia came down a little bit.

[00:08:21]>> You know which one is in the dumps?

[00:08:23]Netflix.

[00:08:24]>> Netflix is in the dumps. So, there's a few in the dumps. Some of the I mean, I don't know if I don't know if dumps, but I mean >> Well, well, dumps it's the instead of being up 80% they're only up 40%, right?

[00:08:35]>> Right. Yeah, I mean, you know, BE's $285 instead of over, you know, 300, you know, the some of these some of these stocks that that BRT that a lot of people trade, you know, was over, you know, 370, 360, something like that. I think it's 315. Uh or close enough to that. So, I mean, you have some of these stocks taking a breather, but is this a breather? I don't you know, I don't know if this is a breather.

[00:09:01]But the market I don't see one thing in the market that's said, "Yeah, we can we should have a down day. We should have a couple of down days. I'd love to see two or three down days." But >> What is I've never I haven't seen We haven't seen one.

[00:09:12]>> No.

[00:09:13]>> Two weeks ago Friday was the only down day.

[00:09:16]>> And to finish to finish my thought, to me I think it's going to be a buy the rumor, sell the news kind of thing. When when Trump finally says the war is over, that's probably when you'll get, you know, some sort of of market selling.

[00:09:30]>> Yeah, but I think Trump has already ended the war like seven times in the last two weeks.

[00:09:35]>> I I I know. Agree. Agree. Agree. I guess when when all sides sit at a table is the way I should have said it. I apologize. You're right. I forgot who I was talking about.

[00:09:43]>> Yeah, you know, anyways.

[00:09:45]So, all right. So, now let's get down to