Trump - Xi Summit: What does the US want?

Añadido: 2026-05-11

[00:00:05]So, President Trump due to meet President Xi in Beijing on 14th and 15th of May. Trump famously transactional will be the one thing he'd be hoping to go home with >> by American. He wants to sell American products. Uh he for the good of the American agricultural industry, for American uh aerospace and aeronautics industry. So, China is a huge market for the US that has really been damaged by this trade war. And so, resetting that relationship is something that would be, I think, in Trump's eyes, a big win. And being able to demonstrate concrete wins and deliverables is something that I think will be attractive to President Trump.

[00:00:46]>> I I do think it will be interesting to see, you know, how closely any deliverables map on to the political landscape in the US. When you think about the the pain that's being felt in farming communities, especially with the 30 to 40% increase in fertilizer prices recently, you know, getting agricultural commodity purchase commitments from Beijing, you know, that could have a targeted effect. But something that's a bit more diffuse, um, you know, purchase commitments that ripple across an entire sector or a distributed supply chain, it's hard to see that necessarily moving the affordability math for Americans before they go to the polls in November.

[00:01:20]though the headline value will still remain for the president.

[00:01:24]>> What do we expect going to be on the agenda and what's going to be top of the agenda?

[00:01:28]>> This is the first time an American president is going to China in about 10 years. Trump was the last president to go to Beijing and he goes again with a a fairly narrow agenda focused on economic goals, questions of whether China will buy more American products, airplanes, soybeans, if China will do more to stop the flow of fentinol. So these are meaningful but also smaller ball issues in the whole range of topics the US and China could be discussing today.

[00:01:54]>> I think it's remarkable relatively how narrow the agenda is considering how broad and comprehensive this bilateral relationship is all the issues that it encompasses from nuclear stability to the AI arms race to you know financial issues and industrial over capacity and what that means for the US but also for allies and partners around the world. Is this a meeting about mood or is it about substance or is it about timing?

[00:02:16]>> This is about vibes. Uh yes, it's about substance too. But we know that uh these two leaders, President Trump especially, seems to very much uh cue off of how he feels like an engagement went, whether he feels like he and the United States were able to get tangible benefits from a certain engagement. This is the transactional future that we live in today. Um or at least the one Washington is trying to pioneer in new ways. So the question is yes, how does the visit itself go? But I think even more importantly is how does President Trump and the US feel coming out of it? Are the promises made delivered on? Are they meaningful and substantive? And then that is really going to set the stage for what this relationship looks like over the next months.

[00:03:01]>> I share Laurel's kind of low expectations for what the summit will yield. That said, I do think there is a tail risk of either some sort of blow up in the relationship or of an unexpected accommodation that analysts don't see coming. And I think the lack of staff work underscores that possibility. You know, this is the same incoherent um kind of personalist policy process that yielded AIPA tariffs that were ruled illegal and sent global markets into uh you know, repercussions. It's the same policy process that yielded a war in Iran, which uh remains unresolved and has been deeply unpopular at home.

[00:03:36]>> So, President Trump's not a man who is used to or or likes being on the back foot. He comes into this meeting on the back of of Iran, the war. Nobody is claiming that to be an unqualified success. How does that backdrop affect the preamble to this summit?

[00:03:52]>> Look, Iran is the big conundrum Washington is trying to untangle. Uh Trump's backed himself into a corner a bit with this uh offering new leverage to the Iranians now that they control the straight of Hormuz. What's fascinating though is China is beginning to quietly step in into a mediating role. They have a self-interest here.

[00:04:12]They have huge commercial equities to make sure traffic flows through Hormuz again. But they also probably relish a role as a as a mediator in this conflict because this is a conflict that just doesn't affect the US and Iran. It affects every country and every citizen around the world, but Iran will loom large over all of this whether or not it's on the agenda itself.

[00:04:32]>> So, two huge super tankers to to use a current metaphor. Um any sign that one may persuade the other to change direction or do they seem fairly set on their courses and that will continue before during through and after this summit? I don't know to what extent each pushes each other to a different course but I do think in some discreet areas you will see uh you know tax changes in direction. I think one notable place to look for um for shifts is on export controls in the US going from you know what was a more intense crackdown under the Biden administration to a more permissive approach. I think more broadly looking beyond the summit, beyond the midterms, there remains in Washington a strong bipartisan consensus for a more hawkish view towards China.

[00:05:22]There are nuances in terms of what that looks like, how it expresses itself across different issues. Um, but I think this is a a fairly unique moment.

[00:05:30]>> As you said, this is bipartisan consensus that a that a forceful and strong approach to China is something that both parties agree to. Many Americans also support. Um, but it also has to avoid falling into conflict.

[00:05:46]That's also something Americans do not want to see. And so I think that's one of the challenges here with this with this summit is how to find those discrete areas that you can build upon.

[00:05:56]Uh, with lower expectations, you're going to get grand bargains on big things that the world wants and needs.

[00:06:01]Um, but also try to put those guardrails in place to make sure it doesn't veer off course into something more dangerous. The one other point I would say we should keep an eye on going forward and even before the midterms is as the US reconstitutes its tariff architecture in the wake of the Supreme Court's invalidation of the emergency tariffs, um the section 301 tariffs that are currently being investigated will likely come in the weeks ahead and that could be a point of escalation again in the relationship if they are heavily targeted towards China.

[00:06:31]>> But I think you're exactly right. uh even the small pieces will try to be big headlines um to show that this summit is producing something concrete. The question is how big or meaningful these headlines are and how enduring they'll be. But we'll see some headlines for sure.

[00:06:47]>> And beyond the summit into the summer, we have the 250th anniversary of US independence. I I forget.

[00:06:53]>> Indeed. Indeed.

[00:06:54]>> I forget from whom temper. Um uh you're going to be in a panel uh here I think on the 27th of May.

[00:07:00]>> That's right. That's right. Yes. On uh the enduring features of US policy, the debates the founding fathers had going back 250 years ago. We're having some of those same debates in the country. We're going to start that conversation on internationalism versus isolationism in US foreign policy. Something that's very relevant to the conversation on China too.

[00:07:20]>> Right. Absolutely. And Chattam House will be holding many events, lots of discussions, lots of reports, lots of papers on this. And the links to your work and your colleagues works will be in the description of this video and on the website.