HIGH & DRY CONTINUES TO RULE BUT SLIGHT DEFLATION TO START AUGUST? TOUGH GETTING RAIN TO S UK!

[00:00:01]Good evening to everybody and welcome to the Tuesday edition of Vogen's European Outlook. This high pressure system just continues to linger. Really the persistence of it is quite impressive in itself for particularly the time of the year and I would be curious to see how this stacks up with the historical context. But in terms of precipitation over the next uh five six days or so, this is off the the MET model here indicating that we have got away from the northwest very little in the way of rain. Sure, we may pick up a few millimeters here and there across the north of the UK, particularly down that western coast of Scotland where we could be anywhere from 10 to perhaps 40 maybe 50 mm of rain in the wetest areas of the ups slopes of West Highland. For example, across parts of Northern Ireland, we may pick up 10 to at the very most 15 mm into the northwest of England. Um, we've got only 10 20 mm at best. Get yourself further south here where it has been driest in recent weeks. Good five, six, seven weeks in some spots without rain. And uh you can see that there is a distinct lack of moisture. Uh this is out to uh 3Z on on Sunday 26th of July. Let's have a look at the ECMWF then and see total accumulated precipitation as we progress through the rest of the month. And again, wetest areas across the north of the British Isles. We've got the area of high pressure anchored just to the west but extending in across the UK and Ireland here. But we do have some um frontal boundaries that will introduce something a little bit more moist across the far north. But the further south we're really clutching the straws. This is all the way to the middle of next week here 29th of July. And if you notice here that we have got um at best two to what five mm of rain between now and the middle of next week here fallen in an area that has not seen a drop of rain this July so far. So as I've said already there is going to be places likely across south and southeast UK that doesn't pick up any rainfall in the month of July. Um, and as we continue to play through this loop here, all the way out to what the 7th, 8th, 9th of uh of August, you're talking about what as much. Now, remember this is total accumulated precipitation.

[00:02:36]Sure, we're going to pick up potentially um 100 millm across the the north of the the UK, Northwest Islands, for example.

[00:02:44]50 60 millimeters across parts of the Republic of Ireland here. But even down along the south coast of Ireland here, southeast, we're only talking about 20 30 mm of rainfall here. And you're talking a good 2 to 3 weeks out. Uh this is off the ECMWF, by the way. Um so this is out to Sunday 9th of August here. And there is parts of the southeast that is going to be lucky to see 20 millimeters rain between now and then. And the new drought analysis has come out from the European drought observatory indicating uh increasing concern area across a good part of France. Not everywhere, but they can see here these reds indicating an alert here. We've got parts of Iberia as well. not quite as bad down in Liberia, but the certainly across the heart of France is um getting a little bit more concerning. And then across the bulk of East Wales and across much of the Midlands, the south and the east of England here, it's turning increasingly dry. Uh the southeast of Scotland and also parts of the Highlands is also seeing um an increase in in drought uh at the moment here. terms of the temperature anomalies then here this is the 850 temperatures um of the uh um it's uh sorry about this folks forget about that but basically we're talking about average temperatures uh across uh Inesse slightly below average actually and across London around about average in terms of the temperatures let's have a quick look then uh let's zoom out and see what the temperature anomalies are looking like of the ECMWF for the next 7 days or so here. So, we'll go back to the current period and let's select temperature anomaly for the next 7 days. And you can see here it's slightly below average. This takes out the Tuesday 20th of July.

[00:04:47]Slightly below average across the north.

[00:04:48]Warm than average again across England, Wales, much of Ireland here. Cooler than average. Notice here a good part of Europe has turned cooler in the upcoming 7-day period. 21st through the 28th below average in Iceland. all of Scandinavia, central and eastern Europe here, away from the far uh far east of the continent here around the Moscow area, we're actually talking about below average temperatures over the next 7 days or so here. If we look at the uh the the mean sea level pressure, actually, it's quite interesting to see what it's showing. Uh so there's that area of high pressure, very strong, anomalous area of high pressure extending from the North Atlantic into the UK and Ireland here. Hence why we've got the dry pattern at the moment here.

[00:05:32]And then you can see the trough over uh much of Europe here. So basically we've got something a little bit fresher into Europe while is basically traveling around that area of high pressure from north down into the the heart of the continent here. Um so what else was I going to show you here? Um yeah, as we play forward here, this is quite interesting. Now this is the period out to the 28th of July. But if you notice here that the high retreats off to the west out in the Atlantic allows something a little bit more uh of a lower pressure flavor to the the pattern as we end July and begin the month of August here. But what happens is that then retreats and we see the the area of high pressure returning as we head deeper into the first half of of August. Now, if we look at the precipitation only for this same period then and see if it's indicating anything slightly wetter, this is the upcoming 7-day in terms of the anomaly. Dry than average pretty much across the board here extending into Europe. Then it turns a little bit wetter than average, but still dry in the south, wetter north as you can see here. And then something a little bit wetter. Again, it's not a fundamental shift from, you know, dry to to flood by any stretch. Uh it could be a fleeting opportunity for lower heights more in the way of uh um moisture coming into play. But remember, very dry ground. Uh and obviously weather fronts tend to be weaker as they they try to drop south at this time of the year. So it's it's pretty hard actually really to get moisture especially in a dry pattern. It's hard to get moisture into an area that is seeing an increase in drought. Um but I'm I'm just simply not seeing any fundamental shift in the overall pattern. If we look at the temperature normally is then for the same period here uh and move forward.

[00:07:29]Let's have a quick check. Um so this is 7 days as I've said and then play through. You can see here that we're introducing something a little bit fresher across the north, not so across much of England and Wales has to be said. And this is as we head out of July into the month of August here. And then as we head deeper into August, perhaps something slightly cooler across the north, but we're holding on to this warmer than average signal across across the south here. Let's have a look at the temperature anomalies then through the 21st of July.

[00:08:03]And you can see here quite clearly how things are panning out. Very very warm compared to average across particularly France. That seems to be the epicenter of both drought and heat. Um and of course the two are very closely related.

[00:08:17]So um so that is it for today. A relatively short video. Like and subscribe. I hope you're enjoying the content and I'll see you tomorrow with more. Bye for now.