AWN Tuesday 5/5/26 Midday Statewide Forecast Update from Drew McCombs

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[00:00:01][music] >> It's time for your statewide Alabama weather cast.

[00:00:08]>> [music] >> Hi, I'm meteorologist Eric with the Alabama weather network and this is your midday forecast update for this Tuesday, May the 5th and looking at our satellite and radar most of the state is very calm out there. Sunshine, warmth, maybe a few high clouds, but very calm day. To the north got a few showers starting to approach the northwestern corner of the state. Some of that could start to reach the ground here in the next couple of hours, but it looks like it should mainly weaken as it moves further towards the east. As we take a bigger look here, you can see again the kind of slow moving cold front to the northwest moving towards us. Low pressure, big trough coming in that will bring us a round of rain and some storms tomorrow night into Thursday and kind of lingering into the later part of the week. We'll have a chance of some strong and severe storms with that. So we'll be watching that as we move into tomorrow.

[00:00:55]Looking at Florence, we're looking back towards those showers moving in in the northwestern part of the state. So you see the gray skies there. It's 71 degrees. Dew points are in the low 50s.

[00:01:03]So still we don't have a ton of moisture in place quite yet in north Alabama or really most of the state. As we look at Moulton, we're looking back in the other direction, but the clouds are starting to move in, but not as close to Moulton. 72 degrees is your temperature. Winds are out of the south southwest around 10 miles per hour. As we continue our tour in Huntsville, seeing some high clouds there as well, but calm otherwise. 69 degrees at top Monte Sano. Dew points in the upper 40s. Again, lower moisture content in the atmosphere for now is going to probably keep those showers from doing a whole lot in north Alabama over the next couple of hours as they move to the east. As we look at Cullman, mostly blue skies there in downtown Cullman. 70 degrees is your temperature and the winds are gusting up to around 22 miles per hour. At the region center in downtown Birmingham, kind of a mixture of sun and clouds there. 70 degrees is your temperature and winds are out of the south southwest.

[00:01:51]Continuing down further towards the south and to the east a little bit.

[00:01:55]Mount Cheaha looking beautiful. A little bit cooler at the highest point of Alabama. 64 degrees is your temperature.

[00:02:01]Winds are relatively light though. And as we move down to Montgomery to the capital city, a little bit more sunshine there. A little bit warmer. 72 degrees is your temperature. Dew points those still generally in the low 50s even further down towards the south, but as we get all the way to the coast at Gulf Shores, dew points are in the low 60s.

[00:02:17]So moisture starting kind of pool and will start to move north over the next 24 hours or so. 75 degrees is your temperature. So definitely a little bit warmer right there along the beach.

[00:02:26]Here's a look at our key messages as we move through this week. So storms moving in by tomorrow night. Could be in the afternoon even a little bit more in the northern part of the state. Some of those are going to be strong, some severe. It's possible we could have a couple of tornadoes, but it looks like the damaging wind threat's probably the bigger threat with this. Could see some hail as well. Heavy rain though is the beneficial part of all this. We expect some heavy rain with it and then that rain lingers through south Alabama, especially in the Thursday and Friday, but even north Alabama could see another shot of rain or two as we move through that time frame as well, but just maybe not as big of a chance. As we look at our sky watcher reports, our lows this morning Big Bell and Black Creek hit 48. Michael Reeves and Leeds 49. Same thing from James Mystic all the way down in Fadette in the southern part of the state. Duncan Hope in Independence 53 and Bud Bean in Northport hit 54. And right now temperatures are in the 70s pretty much across the board. We've hit 70 in Alexander City, 72 in Cullman, 75 in Selma. Looks like that's that's kind of the warmer reading we're seeing there is around 75 76. Looks like 76 in Dothan right now. Again, the dew points are still relatively dry, but starting to moisten up a little bit especially to the south and to the southwest. Starting to see some 60 degree readings starting to move in. That moisture will continue to increase as we move through the next little bit of time here into tomorrow and then highs today will be pretty warm to the south up into the low 80s across most of south Alabama. Further to the north where you've got those clouds starting to move in and and a few of those little showers trying to skirt the north, we've got generally mid upper 70s is what we're forecasting for those highs today.

[00:03:55]And lows tonight should be pretty mild.

[00:03:57]Definitely decent bit milder than we were this morning as as moisture continues to increase, winds pick up, clouds will start to be more apparent.

[00:04:05]And so maybe only generally low 60s across the board. And as we look at our overall picture here of of the kind of mid levels, you can see we are kind of in a zonal flow almost right now kind of on the western side of a trough, but we'll see this next trough to the southwest start to move in and that'll help to be kind of the driver of our weather for this potential severe weather for tomorrow. So as looking at our storm prediction center outlook for tomorrow, you can see most of the northern part of the state under a level two slight risk in yellow there. That includes Thomasville, Selma, Clanton, Alex City and to the north.

[00:04:38]And the main threats there are going to be heavy rain for one thing, which is a good thing. We we still can take more rain even though we've had a decent amount recently.

[00:04:45]And then I would almost call it a medium threat, but it's still kind of on the low side, but the gusty winds, straight line winds of severe level 60 mile per hour or more would be probably the main threat outside of the rain with this system. We expect a little bit more of a linear mode overall.

[00:05:01]So we expect that to be kind of a bare threat. We could see some hail. Could be some large hail, but maybe not a lot of that. And then there could be a few isolated tornadoes. We'll be watching for that. Doesn't look like a huge threat, but there is going to be the possibility.

[00:05:12]So we will be watching for that. You can see there is that level two risk in the marginal level one risk. The marginal extends a little bit further towards the south. And then on Thursday, we have a level one marginal risk for kind of the southern part of the state below Montgomery and Thomasville. All those places kind of to the south.

[00:05:27]And that's a little bit of a smaller risk, but there still could be some strong storms, maybe a few severe with that on Thursday afternoon. So as we move into our future cast here again, get those showers trying to skirt the north, but most places staying dry as we move through this afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s, low 80s. Good bit of sunshine out there. And then tonight, maybe a lingering shower in the north, but generally calm sort of warm evening out there. And then by tomorrow morning, another little storm complex tries to skirt the northern part of the state. Could see again some rain, maybe a few rumbles of thunder push through early in the morning, but then things kind of move out and set up for the next round, which would really be as we get into tomorrow afternoon. Start to see some showers and thunderstorms moving into northern Alabama. A few showers developing out ahead of things in south Alabama, but really as we get into kind of 4 5 6 o'clock p.m. tomorrow, that's where we really start to open the window for some stronger storms. So you see some scattered storms around in northern and western Alabama by 6 p.m. And again, we'll be watching out for the possibility of some isolated cells out ahead of the main line. And that would be the ones that we'd have to watch for most closely for tornado potential.

[00:06:31]Expecting eventually to become more of a linear site type of system later in the evening, but earlier on we'll be watching that. But even with it in linear mode, you can still get spin ups along the line as we all know. By the time we get past midnight, things starting to settle down especially to the north. Mainly just some rain left over, but along that leading edge there in south central Alabama, Demopolis, Selma, Montgomery, Auburn, places like that, you'd have a still have a chance of some severe weather.

[00:06:54]Things kind of quiet down a little bit and then another little round tries to come through Thursday morning, but it really looks like Thursday afternoon in south Alabama, things intensify a little bit again. We get a little bit more instability. Could see a few strong, maybe severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, but could see some showers lingering especially in the southern part of the state Thursday night. Friday, again, it looks like the best chance is going to be in kind of central and south Alabama, but a decent little round of rain coming through there that doesn't look severe or anything, but just looks like more beneficial rain trying to come through on Friday. Still probably a better chance in south Alabama versus north Alabama. Then by Saturday, we start to finally kind of clear out a little bit. Maybe we'll get a little bit of a break there, but hey, we we could use the rain. But again, looking at our heavy rainfall outlook for tomorrow, as I mentioned, that's going to be one of the main threats is some heavy rainfall, which again, we don't want to see any flash flooding or anything, but we certainly could use the rain. So again, there's some chance a few spots could get a a little bit more rain than what you need in short period of time. And looking at our rainfall outlook as we move through the next week, this is about as good as we've seen in a long time. Where basically the entire state more or less expecting to get about two inches of rain or more and some spots probably could get three or four inches. And so that that orange area would be a little bit of a moving target. That may move around a little bit. We do think we'll get some some totals around that sort of sort of area. So as we look at our seven day forecast for the northern half of the state, again, today looks mostly good. Maybe a few showers along that far northern border area with Tennessee.

[00:08:20]Upper 70s and then again, we get into tomorrow afternoon and evening. Rain, storms moving through. Some of those strong and severe possibly. We'll be watching those at the studio for sure. As we look at Thursday, things starting to kind of end mainly in north Alabama and shifting more into south Alabama by Thursday, but still could have a few lingering showers around. Friday, in north Alabama, again, looks like it a lot of places will probably stay dry, but that we may have to introduce a little bit more of a rain chance on Friday for northern Alabama. Saturday looks like it should be dry and pretty nice, but Sunday, we may see a few showers starting to move back in again, but you can see we warm back into low 80s potentially by then and the showers probably become a little bit more scattered in nature. As we look at the southern half of the state, looks very warm and dry today. Highs in the low 80s. Though you can see the the lows in the next couple of mornings start to shoot up a little bit as the moisture increases ahead of this system. But really, you know, for southern Alabama, tomorrow, you're not going to see much at all. You're going to see maybe a few showers, but the really the main rain and thunderstorms start to move south as we get into late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. And then you have another round potentially Thursday afternoon in the far south Alabama. And still continuing to see a chance of rain, better chance of rain on Friday for south Alabama, but Saturday looks like it should be dry for south Alabama as well before a few showers start to move back in on Sunday. Our Alabama forecast update, we appreciate you watching us here on the Alabama weather network.