What now for Ramaphosa impeachment process?

Hinzugefügt: 2026-06-03

[00:00:00]The impeachment committee had its first sitting, but the question is where to from here? Let me guide you on the road towards the next committee meeting and the next steps in President Rama Porsa's bid to stop interrogation of his pala pala scandal.

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[00:00:44]>> Spread the fire. Welcome back to SMWX.

[00:00:48]Subscribe. Take us to half a million subscribers. And it's always good to have you back, fam. Now the impeachment committee has sat for the first time and check out our episode where I reviewed that first sitting. Chairperson Makashle Ghana of Rise and Zansi was elected a non ANC chairperson of a very important committee. It's quite an amazing moment in South African politics. But today I wanted to give you a guide as to where things go from here. We've got this parallel legal process where the president is reviewing the report that triggered this committee. We've also got the impeachment committee itself and I think between now and let's say mid August a lot is going to happen. So I want to give you a heads up so that you can follow along very closely. So firstly I'm going to talk about the impeachment committee and what we can expect but then I'm going to talk about the parallel legal challenge that will run alongside the impeachment committee so that you can get some milestones in the road ahead and then we'll talk about some outstanding questions that we still don't know. So let's start with point number one which is where to from here for the impeachment committee. Now, Makashuleana, the chair of the impeachment committee, came out swinging last night, the night after he was uh elected as chairperson and made it very clear that the committee will continue its work unless a court tells it to stop. Now, you may remember that in Ramapora's review application, he said it would be a travesty if the committee continues its work and he is sure that the committee won't continue its work.

[00:02:24]Well, the committee is continuing. So he has one option which is to bring an interdict otherwise the committee is going to go ahead according to the chairperson and I think that's absolutely the right thing to say. It's reassuring that Ghana has already come out to say this committee will move ahead unless a court stops us. Now I want you to take a look at what he said so you can get a sense of that.

[00:02:45]>> So what I said in parliament and I'll continue to say this. My focus is on the things that are within our control as parliament.

[00:02:54]the things that will take place outside of parliament, be it on the streets, be it on the courts, it's something that's not in our control. I have a responsibility tomorrow to meet with the team in parliament to start preparing for the first sitting of the impeachment committee that that that work is going to proceed and we are going to do our work until such time that either the court pronounces one way or the other. But we are not going to uh not work on account that there could be an interruption tomorrow a day after.

[00:03:27]>> All right. Any thoughts on Ghana saying committee will go ahead. They're not going to suspend.

[00:03:32]>> Yeah, I think it's a good it's a good attitude to have especially from the chair before even having started this >> this committee. Um >> there probably will be attempts now that I mean what I think was happening with the speaker was that she was not delaying announcing the names and getting this first meeting started because she knew that there might be opportunity in the long run to you know delay this process whether they decide >> at some point that look >> the review of the president has started let's just suspend this while >> that happens or push back the times that this meeting this committee can meet because of like we know there's budget votes happening in parliament so that could be a delay so I think coming from the chairperson that's an important >> uh position to hold >> indeed indeed and let's look at those dates actually because the question is where to from here now parliament goes on recess towards the end of June I think it's the 25th of June so the question is will the impeachment committee meet between now and then and I would like to believe that they will have at least one more meeting between now and the end of June because they need to make sure that they meet before Parliament goes on recess because it's only coming back in August. So, if the impeachment committee does nothing between now and August, I think that would be a serious disappointment. This committee needs to move fast. It needs to get the ball rolling. It's got a lot of work on its hands and it can't wait until August to have its second meeting.

[00:05:04]That would be that would be untenable in my view. So they need to meet at least one more time and that would be the next order of business which is the terms of reference of the committee. So they need to meet, talk about rules, talk about terms of reference and then probably in the recess they can workshop those terms of reference in their parties, get legal advice and then come back in August with the terms of reference ironed out so that the committee can then move on in August to appointing the evidence leader and actually getting into the first phase of the inquiry itself.

[00:05:38]>> Yeah. So I think what a lot of people and that's what you're saying now might not know is we're not going to go straight into hearing from witnesses from the president etc. So it's important to use the time now >> to be able to tick all those boxes and I think another >> milestone for this committee is who they'll pick as their as their evidence leader which is going to be very important. We've seen from the adult committee >> investigate Tim Konazi's allegations how important it is for >> the committee to have a strong evidence leader.

[00:06:05]>> Absolutely. And and on that note, I'm not sure people realize how massive this is. I was actually reading reading up on impeachments that have happened in different parts of the world. Firstly, it's extremely rare for an impeachment to even reach this stage. Most impeachments don't go to like a trial or a committee stage, but in other constitutions around the world, so for example, the US, I think, has only had like in its in its history three impeachments or four in its entire history, like trials, let alone actual impeachments. South Korea has had two um I think one person was acquitted and one uh one uh president was actually impeached. And interestingly to to see how seriously impeachment is taken in different countries like sometimes the chief justice themselves presides over the the committee the trial committee.

[00:06:56]So you won't have like a chair from that committee like the chief justice becomes the chair >> which is what happens in the US Senate.

[00:07:02]In South Korea it goes to the constitutional court itself. So like you have your committee sitting and then the court looks at it and they say okay yes you impeach or you don't impeach. like >> the fact that we're here means that we're like in a rare territory in in global democracy.

[00:07:17]>> Yeah. And I think after terms of reference, after getting the evidence leader, when we've got our program of action in place, >> I think another important part about this process is is is exactly that is that it's a process and we can't treat any part of it in isolation. Yeah.

[00:07:33]>> And it's important to remember that we got here because of the section 89 panel report.

[00:07:37]>> So I think that's going to be a good place to start to say what was the report? Yes.

[00:07:41]>> Uh about what were the findings? What were those four charges that that that were included in the report and how does the committee take what the president calls information and not evidence in that report >> and probe it and be able to get sufficient evidence?

[00:07:57]>> This is a great point and it's going to have a bearing on the legal stuff later because >> effectively what may happen is that the committee lets >> Wait, let me let me take a few steps back. They must just appoint an evidence leader like they don't we don't have to wait for the rules and like they must do a lot of stuff.

[00:08:15]>> Yeah. um in parallel so that when now we have an evidence leader, we have terms of reference and now it's about okay what do we do?

[00:08:23]>> Now when we get there there may be like a preliminary stage before hearings where the committee is just looking at the report >> and just saying like what are the strengths, what are the weaknesses and it'll deliberate on the report maybe do some further sifting before it decides to call witnesses.

[00:08:43]If it does that, it's going to impact on the president's review because then events will have overtaken the president's review because remember this is all about the final report.

[00:08:54]>> Yeah, >> the section 89 report is just a preliminary report. This committee is going to look deep at the evidence and produce a final report. It lends credibility to the side of the three panelists and parliament to say well >> this prelim report that the president has taken on review was always going to come to a committee that was going to look deeper into this issue.

[00:09:13]>> Exactly.

[00:09:14]>> Yeah.

[00:09:14]>> And if that process finishes before the president's review finishes then what's the point of his review of the prelim report?

[00:09:21]>> It's moot. It's moot. I love it. Yeah.

[00:09:25]>> So yeah, that's another reason why I think this review eventually is is going to be moot or it's going to be unnecessary cuz the whole you can think of this committee kind of like a review of that report, but it's actually a longer, more deliberate review where they can call witnesses and all of that.

[00:09:40]A review court is not going to be able to call witnesses, test the evidence and all of that, but Parliament can. And that's a much better form of review than just going to court and saying, "Oh, I have nothing to hide and this report accepted inadmissible evidence." Yeah, we're jumping up around a bit. Sorry.

[00:09:55]But I think another important part going back to the chairperson is how he'll treat >> situations like we saw in the adult committee >> where and I I suspect we'll have similar issues in this impeachment committee where there's a lot of sideh shows >> happening that that that might be aimed at distracting us from what the task at hand is. the adult committee investigation investigating allegations. We saw this >> these side debates about whether Dian Kabana should be a part of this comedy, >> whether so and so should be part of this comedy.

[00:10:27]>> Um, Fidil Adams sideshows and I I think we already saw a taste of that in the first meeting on Monday when >> we heard that there was a letter submitted to the speaker about whether Dr. John Clope should be part of this committee.

[00:10:38]>> Yeah.

[00:10:38]>> So, it's going to be interesting how the chairperson navigates those those waters. Yeah, agreed. And in addition, when I go back to the busiway impeachment, that went to court twice >> while the process was happening. So, >> look, this is going to be a long long road.

[00:10:57]>> Yeah.

[00:10:58]>> Like, we're talking a year. We're talking maybe even two years. We're talking this can go to court multiple times. It's going to be it's going to be a saga. It's going to be a movie. It's going to be an epic. and just strap in basically cuz it's >> and we'll have major things happening in between. I mean we have an local government election in a couple of months. We'll have the ANC conference next year. Then in two years we'll have the national elections. I doubt the committee will still >> be working till then but you never know.

[00:11:29]>> Maybe it'll just sit indefinitely.

[00:11:30]>> Yeah. So it's going to be very interesting. It is you know with busua actually it was quite fascinating because it started in 2021 and I think she was impeached in 23 or somewhere but like years later and what ended up happening was that her term actually nearly ended before she could be impeached.

[00:11:48]>> So it was anyway she she would have left.

[00:11:51]>> Yeah exactly. So who knows maybe this will run into but I I think after the conference he probably wouldn't survive anyway. So >> yeah, which again is that question and I don't know if it's a legal question that's been answered is >> if the president does vacate office whether it's because of the ANC conference next year or he resigns.

[00:12:09]>> Yeah.

[00:12:10]>> Does the process carry on and I'm of the view and I'm not a legal mind that it doesn't make sense cuz how do you impeach a president who's not there?

[00:12:18]>> So I don't know.

[00:12:19]>> We'll have to do a whole episode but yeah I think I I I tend to agree at this point. Um so let's come back to the timeline. So June is where we are and we've had the first sitting. Then at the somewhere between now and and the recess we should inshallah have the second sitting right then parliament goes on recess and then it comes back in August where it has another term and that's where the committee must really like start moving and by then it should be very far on the evidence leader on the rules terms of reference and then it should be okay let's set our program for you know the foreseeable future and how we're going to be dealing with this report and potentially calling witnesses. Now secondly, we've got in parallel to this process between June and August, we've got a legal review of the report that triggered this committee. So check these dates out, right? The president has submitted his affidavit.

[00:13:15]The independent panelists who drafted the report which said there should be a committee to discover whether the president should be impeached. They have to give the record of their proceedings in midJune.

[00:13:30]Then the president is going to be able to supplement his papers based on what he gets from the proceedings of the panel. I think that's around the 17th of June. So we'll get a second set of court papers from the president. Remember, the impeachment committee could be meeting for a second time around there. I can just see the media. The president's defenders are going to be like, "Look at this paragraph and this paragraph.

[00:13:53]Everybody relax. Calm down. We haven't even heard from the other side yet.

[00:13:59]>> Rest man." So, so then finally in July, we're going to get the answering affidavit and that's going to be I I think that NOBO is going to abide. I don't think he's going to contest. And probably the same for the the people who've drafted the report. But what will Parliament do?

[00:14:21]That's a big one. Yeah, >> that's a big one. Cuz if they come in >> opposing the president's review, >> that's already going to dent. But if they don't, then it'll be a boost for the president.

[00:14:33]>> Yeah. And again, to the point of when these things happen, >> that is around when the Madanga Commission is scheduled to end. And we've heard that the Vincent Maguya, the prison spokesperson said they're not >> looking at extending this thing further.

[00:14:46]So >> I think there'll be riots in the streets if if Madanga is cut short.

[00:14:50]>> So yeah, August is when the Madlanga Commission is expected to submit it final report and it it ends what you're saying >> about nearly where.

[00:14:58]>> Yeah. Yeah. Exactly.

[00:15:00]>> Yeah.

[00:15:00]>> Okay. So answering affidavit coming in July. So that'll be like Zongula, the EFF, probably MK, maybe Bossa, whichever party wants to oppose the president's review.

[00:15:10]>> Action essay. Yeah.

[00:15:11]>> Yeah. Action essay. Then the president will reply. So there'll be another affidavit and then heads of argument. This is where the lawyers draft their legal arguments based on the facts presented in the affidavit. And the president's heads will be in in just before the the beginning of August. and then the responding heads from all the people who want to challenge the president's case early August. So actually early August we'll have all the court papers impeachment committee will be resetting.

[00:15:46]>> Yeah.

[00:15:46]>> Mlanga commission may be ending.

[00:15:49]>> Yeah.

[00:15:50]>> Yeah. I know.

[00:15:51]>> And that's actually probably when local government election campaigns are really starting to kick off.

[00:15:56]>> So true. So true. And I think this process lends the EFF, ATM, >> possibly MKP and other opposition parties a real >> um opportunity to go and campaign to people. Look at the the work that we've been doing in the last >> month or so in this impeachment committee.

[00:16:14]>> And I saw President Rama Porsa this past weekend on the campaign trail. I don't know if you saw that. And >> doortodoor and and what do you actually tell people when you do door to door as the president >> and you've got the pala pala thing.

[00:16:24]>> Yeah. So, like not only are you trying to campaign to people who don't have roads and electricity and water, but someone's going to ask him on there's going to be a viral moment at some point on the campaign trail >> where people are going to ask like >> what happened with the couch, Mr. >> So, yeah, it's it's it's major. But so, so now that we've given you the timeline and of course things can change, but you know kind of what what we can expect.

[00:16:52]appreciate that the president doesn't have any option to stop this committee until August.

[00:16:59]So if the committee carries on and his review I mean his review will only and those are just the papers then there's got to be a hearing that will be set down which then will probably be like two weeks later let's say like mid August and then the court will have to deliberate and then write its judgment and then hand down its judgment. So I mean that could take like a month. So we could be talking midepptember and unless the president interdicts the impeachment committee. Then even if he carries on with this review, we're probably talking midepptember until any outcome of that review. By which time the impeachment committee could really be quite far along with its work.

[00:17:42]>> We hope. Yeah.

[00:17:43]>> And I think that's one of the benefits of having a nonc chairperson committee.

[00:17:48]And I think something interesting you've also said in the past is it's interesting that the president didn't bring this review application urgently.

[00:17:54]>> Very interesting >> cuz that would have succeeded helped helped him a lot.

[00:17:58]>> Yeah. The president timeline >> indeed. He hadn't he had the opportunity to bring this with urgency. He hasn't even pleaded urgency in his review papers which is strange. Very strange. And so he's kind of like well it's not urgent but we must expedite this non-urgent thing. Hey, let's review application.

[00:18:17]>> Zakala >> Zakal and then Zakala.

[00:18:23]So yeah, I mean you can see the next two three months are going to be crucial.

[00:18:28]But get this, unless the president brings an interdict, let's assume the court gets back to us with a judgment mid midepptember, right?

[00:18:38]Let's give them a month to think about these issues.

[00:18:42]People think oh let's say the court rules in favor of Ramaporsa far from certain EFF then leave to appeal then the court has to decide whether it grants leave to appeal then they appeal to the Western Cape court then let's say EFF wins that appeal then president appeals to the SCA >> yeah we could be in 2027 by now like and then Concort >> and we waited two years for one of these these Concord judgments. So this review could take 3 years. I'm I'm I'm not even I'm not even kidding. So this there's this misconception in the public that this review is going to be over very fast and then the impeachment committee is going to have to halt its work.

[00:19:28]That's not that's not going to happen.

[00:19:31]Like this review will probably only end like in the distant deep into the impeachment committee when the committee has already considered the report from every angle in which case the review will be moot in my view.

[00:19:44]>> Yeah. And whichever way it goes really the review application it will be appealed.

[00:19:49]>> Yeah. It's going to be appealed. If the president lo will appeal >> we know this >> the review if if if it's adverse >> unless he resigns unless the court's like no. And he's like I I I'm done fighting. Why would he resign so far into into this thing when the comedy is happening parallel where he would have resigned >> ago? I don't see why he would >> do all of this just to resign in the end whereas he could have resigned.

[00:20:11]>> Yeah.

[00:20:12]>> So I don't think clearly the president or people around him don't think resigning is an option >> weirdly enough.

[00:20:18]>> Yet.

[00:20:19]>> Yeah.

[00:20:19]>> Yet.

[00:20:20]>> Yeah.

[00:20:21]>> So we shall see. We shall see.

[00:20:24]Anyway, that's a little breakdown of what we can expect over the next few months. Mankule Ghana becomes a very important person in South African politics. We will continue to be with you at each of these stages. We'll look at the president's, you know, further affidavit. We'll look at the replying court papers. We'll look at the heads of argument. We'll obviously look at the impeachment committee. But now that you've watched this, you know more or less what to expect over the next few months and indeed possibly year to 18 months as this impeachment committee unfolds.

[00:20:53]>> And another important thing actually, sorry I forgot to mention something we missed because the impeachment committee started on that day.

[00:21:00]>> Yeah. Isungula said outside parliament that they will be bringing an application for this speaker to recuse herself >> from providing oversight on this on this matter >> which I at at the at at face value I thought how would that work but I think he brings in his point is that >> the speaker in 2022 when they did that vote was one of the people or in in that vote stood up as an MP and voted against >> this panel report. Um, so how does that impair her her judgment and ability to provide oversight on this matter now as speaker which is interesting.

[00:21:35]>> It is it is interesting >> and another curveball that could be thrown and make this thing longer.

[00:21:40]Definitely. Exactly.

[00:21:43]>> And again, I think it might be it might be a reach, but let's see. You know, again, it's kind of like the cla thing.

[00:21:50]It's like >> just keep your focus on >> impeachment committee. Like now the speaker and recusals and what I do think they have a point where like when it comes to legal advice, it shouldn't just be the speaker. She should be consulting all the parties, getting consensus on what to do in parliament, etc. But um yeah, trying to force her to recuse herself might just be >> going to be tricky. That's why my thought was how would that work?

[00:22:14]>> How does she recuse herself from this >> specific >> Yeah.

[00:22:19]>> you know, oversight role on this committee?

[00:22:21]>> She's kind of no longer that it now moves to the committee. So Ghana chairs the committee makes a lot of decisions >> and um >> yeah, >> I guess maybe they might say look what if the committee comes to her and says can we please have an extension like the AROC has done? Will she then use her power to >> not give an extension when it's warranted as an example?

[00:22:43]>> Fair. Yeah.

[00:22:45]>> Look, the devil's advocate position is also like everyone has taken a position.

[00:22:50]>> True.

[00:22:51]>> Everyone's voting >> everyone on that committee >> indeed. So, >> and this was something that came up in the Bayer litigation is like how impartial can you expect politicians to be? It's like kind of their job to be partial.

[00:23:04]>> But then now you've got them sitting on this deliberative body that requires certain amount of impartiality.

[00:23:10]>> The courts, as far as I know, have said like, look, we don't expect these politicians to be super impartial. Um, they must just be fair and do their jobs on the committee.

[00:23:21]>> Okay.

[00:23:22]>> But but we'll see. We'll see.

[00:23:25]>> Strap in, guys.

[00:23:26]>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. And then this I just hope the Shaw thing doesn't become a whole >> thing is not going remember the ad comedy whenever they used to get this Diane Kabana thing it started at the beginning we all thought it was done and then at the end we had to get 50 legal opinions about this matter so I I don't think it's going anywhere.

[00:23:42]>> No exactly and then Diane Kabana ended up testifying at her own maybe will testify and then >> and then I can't remember if a witness came and said I refuse to be questioned.

[00:23:51]I think Sevilla came and said, "I refuse to be questioned by David Scosana cuz he opened a case against me." Like these things are going to happen.

[00:23:57]>> Exactly. Exactly. It's going to be fun drama.

[00:24:00]>> It's going to be fun. Oh, one more thing though. I do think we need to reflect on the president's threats because we've been saying on this channel, the president doesn't have an interdict case and and what has happened so far and it's gone under the radar. Remember there were those those first there were those rumors that came out of the Sunday Times that no, the president wants to interdict. He wants to interdict the process before it even starts which one can understand you know before the committee the speaker launches the committee and announces names the president says hold on don't do anything >> he waited we waited for what like two two three weeks no interdict >> not even a review application >> exactly exactly then the committee is established the names are announced no interdict >> then he drops the review application papers in which he says just suspend this whole thing because I want you to and then he says but if you Yeah. If you don't suspend I'm going to interdict you.

[00:25:00]>> Then the committee sits and it elects a chair.

[00:25:02]>> Yeah.

[00:25:03]>> Now he's written a a lawyer's letter reported by News 24. He says okay no no you can you can do preliminary stuff.

[00:25:10]You can elect the chair and and you can appoint evidence leaders but when you start this it started Mr. President.

[00:25:18]Where's the interdict that you threatened? So I think >> I'm beginning to believe he's literally bluffing on this interdict. He's not going to bring it.

[00:25:27]>> He just he just wants people to feel like it might at come at some point. But again, even if he brings it now, he's going to have to face a whole separate set of questions as to why did you wait >> for the committee to start, elect the chair, evidence leaders, do all his preliminary work, and then you want to interdict, >> which also adds credence to the idea that he doesn't want to answer questions cuz he's only going to interdict when it's time for him to answer.

[00:25:52]>> Unfortunately for him, he accepted to ask answer questions the day he decided not to resign before this thing started.

[00:25:58]Unfortunately for him.

[00:25:59]>> Exactly. Exactly. So the interdict that was never an interdict remains an elusive >> interdicted from interdicting.

[00:26:11]>> Maybe his legal team said we'll interdict you if they if they don't interdict.

[00:26:16]>> Yeah. So Mr. President, we await your interdict with bait.

[00:26:20]>> Fam, >> send us a DM. Let us know when you're dropping this.

[00:26:23]>> Exactly. Exactly. Fam, you are not interdicted from liking, sharing, or subscribing. So, please take us to half a million subscribers and we'll see you on the next one. Give us a positive review on podcast platforms if you're listening there and keep it locked on SMWX.

[00:26:39]Hey, there you no