Oil Doubled in Two Months. The Market Doesn't Care. Tim Knight Says That's a Dangerous Signal.

追加: 2026-04-29

[00:00:00]Let's jump into the charts as we uh await just in an hour from now the uh cavalcade of earnings. Uh here's the diamonds. Um and they are down some, not quite 1%. It's the same story. They did not achieve lifetime highs. They have fallen short of doing so and they are respecting that broken trend line. Um the DAO 30 um as I keep saying just like Q1 2000 um topped out a while ago and has let letting tech just run with the ziness. And so it has uh over the course of the past about seven trading days pretty much been falling [clears throat] um pretty much lower lows and lower highs on a day-to-day basis and uh couple thousand points below lifetime highs. Uh the small caps IWM have uh they had their lifetime high I think last week. Today uh just been a perfect gap seal.

[00:01:02]Um let's watch [clears throat] that. Can we crack it tomorrow? Um as it has been now. We had our peak here uh last week and yesterday and today some weakness and at today's weakest point I just sealed that gap up nice and neat. So we'll see um if that holds or not.

[00:01:19][clears throat] kind of interesting to to observe. Uh but as I said, semiconductors which are the u you know seven cylinders of this eight cylinder engine driving the market those those um uh [clears throat] maintaining their strength had just a touch of weakness yesterday. That's been dispatched. We're up oh 1.66% right now in the vicinity of lifetime highs. the actual intraday peak was on Monday and the um um lifetime close high was on on Friday and we're we're still in that vicinity now. It's a real mixed bag. Uh it's incredible. Actually, I haven't even looked at Nvidia today.

[00:01:58]It's I've been very distracted by other things, but I've not looked at Nvidia. I have no idea what they're doing. Let's just take a peek. It's not I'm cheating here a little bit. I'm going to look just I'm curious is doesn't agree with the symbol on your screen. Okay, it's it's back within that. Uh, shame on me for not including that. That's kind of important, but it has uh slipped back into its pattern. So, sorry if I messed up the symbols on your screen, but we're back to the regularly scheduled program now. Um, crude oil is really strong and it's like people have stopped caring about it. It's very odd, very, very odd that it would be this strong. Let me try to put it this way. Let's say in February, let's say we took a time machine back to February for all this had happened and we gathered up a bunch of economists and market analysts and so forth and said just for the sake of argument, what if oil prices doubled in a couple of months and after they stopped laughing at the preposterous uh hypothesis we're putting forward, they'd probably say, "Well, my god, it would wreck this, it would wreck that, the Dow would be down 10,000 points, etc." Um it's it's come about in such a way that um people have kind of gotten used to it. You know, we have not just tripledigit oil, but you know, Brent crude's like 119 120 a barrel and uh uh it it's like it's kind of a version of the the frog in the in the pot where the water comes up slowly. This one's been a little bit different. It's like the frog was in the pot and they cranked it to boiling and they simmered it down again.

[00:03:26]Now it's slow to go back to boiling and the frog was just kind of used to it.

[00:03:28]It's like, well, water's super hot.

[00:03:30]That's just how things are. So, um, you because oil was a 50-ish a barrel creature early in February and now it's triple digits and has no signs of slowing down it seems because it's not like, oh yeah, did you hear about the nuclear war in the Middle East? And things are actually relatively quiet over there. you know, there's there's proposals going back and forth that are not being accepted, but it's not like there's a hot or all of a sudden. So, just saying people just don't seem to care that much cuz the market the equity markets are lifetime highs now. And um pretty much and uh you know, the inq up triple digits today, oil doesn't seem to matter. Strange, isn't it? Um okay, let's let's look at some earnings from yesterday. I made mention of being short Robin Hood, H O D, and uh that worked out. We uh were plunging on that one, like 15% or so, having a nice tumble on uh on Robin Hood. Um nice rounded top on that one. So, um um yeah, worked out. Um a couple of earnings that were explosive yesterday and I think led credibility to the zany tech valuations we've got. Uh well, one was the earnings, one was a sympathy plate. The earnings was STX, uh Seagate, and Seagate exploded higher.

[00:04:51]But let's let's zoom in. Look at this.

[00:04:55]Uh they opened quite strong and they peaked way up here. Uh just about at 700.

[00:05:01]This was a 500 500s [clears throat] yesterday and was at almost 700 today.

[00:05:05]But look what it's doing. That big red bar. And just as a reminder as a candlestick, the red bar only means that the present price is lower than the open price. We are trading at the lows of the day right now. Uh I shorted STX and WDC earlier today based upon the old selling into strength maxim. And so I've got a profitable short on STX in spite of it being up about 10% because it's a new new trade. Uh, and then WDC, which reports, I think, tonight. Uh, they blasted higher in sympathy as well.

[00:05:40]That's one of those funny trading words, sympathy. It always sounds sad, but it doesn't necessarily mean it's a bad thing. It just means kind of contango, you know, it's going along with it. So, it's sort of a joyous sympathy higher.

[00:05:52]So, WDC blasted higher, but same deal.

[00:05:55]It was much, much higher earlier today.

[00:05:57]It's trading at the day lows. So, I'm short STX as of earlier today. I'm also short WDC as of earlier today, even though they're announcing earnings tonight. Uh, one of the most common questions I get is, "Do you do you hold on to positions through earnings?" Yeah, I don't care. I mean, I kind of pay a little bit of extra attention, but good heavens. It's just like, "Oh, wait.

[00:06:18]There there's earnings tonight. I better close everything." What? No, [clears throat] it's a chart. I mean the chart should have the whatever information is [snorts] embedded into the fact earnings are coming already. So yeah the answer is no. I don't it's like oh there's earnings I better get out. I might lose money. No. No. That's the answer. Um SNDK by the way has has been uh continuing to blast lifetime highs regularly. This is very much related to SDX and WDC. These are all storage companies.

[00:06:51]uh Sandis being a much younger public entity uh but has done sensationally well up 900% since it went public something like that. Uh so that's just uh I'm not short that because I you know yeah I'm just not um okay I'm going to I'm going to beat myself up more about my close gold position. Um won't that be fun? My miners more specifically. Gold continues to fall just like I said it would. And I stupidly covered my gold miner short for no good reason. So, shame on me. And I say this every day, but it just keeps falling. Um, and I'll say what I did I'll say what I said yesterday and the day before. It's probably just going to keep falling. I could easily see this going to 4,000. Um, so yeah, shame on me. GDX, what which was what I closed um or covered. I I shorted it here. covered it here I think and then of course it continues on and I suspect miners will just keep going lower just like silver just like platinum just like palladium just like silver miners you name it so blleh um okay now as I mentioned I do have a whole heap 40 uh is it actually it's 43 that's how that's how I've lost position I've got 43 short positions that's bonkers isn't it um here's a few of Uh, here's one I mentioned a lot. AS Space Mobile, AS 3%. It's been a pretty steady performer to the downside. Um, the thrills of flying cars and rockets has died down recently. Uh, Palanteer PLTR um, short of this one yesterday and this is down today about 2 and a/4%. None of these are very dramatic, but they're they're going the right direction, particularly since another triple digit gain uh on the NQ.

[00:08:47]Um here's one I don't know if we've talked about or not. I might have cuz it's a really nice pattern. ADMA. This is ADMA Biologics.

[00:08:56]Um [clears throat] you can see plain as day. Uh beautiful head and shoulders top on that one.

[00:09:03]I've been tracking this for a while and there's a couple of reasons I sort of held off on shorting it. One was I didn't know how much closer it would get to that neckline cuz there's a lot of sunshine between the rectangle and where it peaked a couple of days ago. So, I didn't know if it would just keep keep on shooting higher. Um, the other reason is that it's not particularly heavily traded. It's it's um kind of middling volume, but it's such a big beautiful pattern I decided to give it a shot. And so, it's worked out so far. And obviously my stop is just above this bar right here. So that's uh ADMA.

[00:09:38]Then there's Door Dash whose symbol is dash DASH. Uh this one is down. Although yeah, you know, kind of a scary looking little hammer there that might might do a little counter turn rally, but um I don't set stops that tightly. Um so that'll probably just we'll stick with that. Then there's GE Aerospace. We've talked about this a lot. Symbol GE. This is down about two and uh 2/3% and it's working on kind of a messy reversal top right there. It's got some more work to do. It's going to have to cut below the last the lows of last week in order to complete that, but you know, it's moving the right direction. Uh and then there's him. A lot of repetition here because um because they're working dayto day. This I think I mentioned yesterday as well up about five% on him and hers.

[00:10:30]There's the rather crude reversal top on that one. And then with uh with crypto still pretty weak strategy continues to work out. Um I'm short Michael Sailor Strategy MSTR off about 4 1/2%. And there's a nice nice big top on that one.

[00:10:49]Again, not particularly wellformed.

[00:10:52]Um, then here's one I don't think we've mentioned before. Pony PY. This is pony.ai.

[00:10:58]And this is off almost 6%.

[00:11:01]Pretty decent top on that one. And this is one of these, you know, never seen a profit in their life kind of companies.

[00:11:08]And um, it's doing good things. I look at a lot of charts to try to beat these out of the bushes. Uh, that's why you've probably never heard of a lot of these.

[00:11:17]And then uh one last one here, Regetti RGTI down over 3%. Uh so on the whole, just a really good day. As as usual, as I glance over at my quotes, there are some greens here and there, but on the whole, they're new positions. So they were entered earlier today at better prices.

[00:11:35]Um and so it's a pretty solid pretty solid day. Um I feel especially good about that because the market's barely down at all. Um, when the Fed did their announcement, it tumbled down. The ES was down like 28 or something. At the moment, it's down like six. It could well be green by the time the day is over. It's really all about earnings tonight. That's going to have an outsized effect. Um, speaking of, um, these are the four big boys and I've put them kind of in an increasingly interesting order. Uh, the most dull one to me is is Alphabet, Google. Um, it had a nice little top there, and this did what the market in general did in a big way. fell, retraced, and then rolled its eyes and just kept blasting higher. So, it's it's at lifetime highs now, and u no position um and um I guess it'll just keep on keeping on. This a very powerful stock and it's definitely acting very bullish. Uh Microsoft MSFT has been exceptionally weak stock um relative to everything else. You can see it had a just a terrible run here and this is in the context of a staggering bull market.

[00:12:39]Just fell and fell and fell. it finally bottomed and has rallied to some degree.

[00:12:45]Um, but I do think it's going to have to best last week's high to sort of prove itself. Then we have Amazon AMZN uh, which is I guess lifetime highs as well. Very messy. It has cut below and above this trend line. I got no read on that. Uh, the only one I have a position in at all uh, is Meta. Um, I have u options on this that expire in September. Uh, if this goes blasting into the stratosphere, I guess I'll just throw my hands up and get out and be done with it. But among all these, that's my only um position. Uh, so as far as income in general goes, um, this has been pretty much green for the day.

[00:13:26]We're still well above this rectangle that we've been within. And um this will definitely have some movement tomorrow because uh almost all the trillions and trillions of dollars of market cap are at stake with respect to these earnings announcements. And I'll just say in closing um tip of the hat to Bitcoin, which again keeps trying to scare me night after night, but this is the uh fifth red bar in a row. Um and I I'm I'm getting used to the spookiness in the middle of the night when when it's lurching higher. You can see it from those long shadows being thrown. But on the whole, this is old faithful. It's doing just fine.