Are We Facing Motor Oil Shortages This Summer? Toyota Issues A TSB

Added: 2026-05-15

[00:00:00]As most of you have probably seen over the past few days on social media, rumors are swirling of an impending motor oil shortage. It all began with a post on X and since then it has been spreading like wildfire. I have seen local media outlets talk about this, putting out videos, interviewing people on the streets, interviewing shop owners to find out what is going on here. I've also seen automotive media outlets talking about the same thing alongside the reports that Toyota has released a TSB on the oil shortages letting their dealerships know that temporarily the hybrid vehicles can run on a thicker oil. So, in today's video, we're going to go over what we know, what we don't know, what we can verify and not verify, and also should you be concerned heading into the summer of 2026. Will there be bare shelves? Will there be a price increase when you go to your local dealership to get an oil change like I did a couple of days ago? All this and more in today's video. So, let's begin with this post on X. It's from a guy named Costa Cap at the NASA. He's not just some random guy or random dude trying to throw up misinformation to get clicks and get some ad revenue on X. He owns one of the fastest growing oil change companies in the US. Basically, a rival to Jeffy Loop. The company is called Costa Oil. I think they're based in the Mid-Atlantic region because we don't have any of those up here in Massachusetts or New England. But I have heard of this company before. It's called Costa Oil. And he does sponsor a race team. So that's probably where I've heard of this company before. But the post says, "Just got word Mobile and Shell have informed Costco and Walmart they have no package product to send them and expect bare shelves in the motor oil section in a few weeks." So people are already freaking out at this point, right? So they're running to their stores. They're trying to see what's going on at their local Walmart, their local Napa, Advanced Auto Parts stores, and they're getting mixed results. Some people are seeing some bearer shelves. Other people, it seems to be like the supply is right there, no problems. But when you start taking a deeper dive into all of this, there's some cracks in the wall here that definitely create some concern because as you guys have already seen, we've experienced for the past what, 8 weeks now, higher gas prices. But with crude oil and the base oils that we are extracting from the earth, it would make sense because, you know, motor oil is taken from crude oil and we also have some other fluids that helps get our engines moving that we could be seeing a shortage of this in the summertime.

[00:02:25]We're not going to dive into that today because there have been some smarter people out there that have already put out videos and live streams about a month ago, such as the motor geek with over 300,000 subscribers. I'll leave a link in the description for that particular video. fascinating really, but a bit concerning if we continue on this trajectory. But Costa had some other posts that I completely agree with and I can cooperate on because when I take a look at my receipt for my oil change a couple of days ago, the numbers really aren't that far off what he's reporting here. In another post that he had put out, he says, "The cost of passenger vehicle lubricants to most end retailers has nearly tripled in just the last month or so. Your mom and pop repair shop went from paying $10 a gallon to $25 a gallon for 0W20 because they don't have the scale to demand a better price. If they follow a normal pricing matrix to keep the same margin they previously had, they should be charging $150 for an oil change. Now, $150 for an oil change is ludicrous. It is nuts, but is it? So, 10 days ago, I got an oil change for my Volkswagen GTI.

[00:03:31]I've owned this car for almost seven years. I've always known what I was going to pay. That walking in with the oil change, tire rotation, I had a pretty good idea.

[00:03:41]But this time around, I'm taking a look at the receipt and I'm like, "Wow, it's actually increased substantially." So, I always knew I would pay about $80 to $90 for an oil change. That includes the air filter as well. This time around, $130.

[00:03:59]$130 for the oil change and filter.

[00:04:03]That's about $40 more than what I paid a couple of years ago. And I think even last year I paid 90 for it. I'm paying $130 now. And then on top of that with tire rotation, $50. So I'm walking out of the dealership paying like $180 when a couple of years ago I'd be leaving the dealership at $120, $130. I always knew what I was paying. Now it's become a bit more expensive. So that is actually pretty accurate. So I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing more of that in the future here where you might be paying $150 and and some people are now like maybe I should do my own oil changes. But that leads me into the potential for bare shelves because as Costa said here there are pores that Mobile and Shell have already talked about this but we haven't heard anything from Valene. We haven't heard anything from Havalene. There's some other motor oil companies out there and they've been pretty quiet so far.

[00:04:56]My personal take on this in regards to the shortage themselves before we dive into other media outlets and what they're talking about. I don't think you're going to be seeing it on the shelves necessarily, at least not within the next few weeks, but you will be seeing it when you go for that oil change, which is why I would recommend getting your oil change now than later in the summer when you could be paying peak prices. But this leads me into one of the local media outlets from Las Vegas. They had a video put out on what's going on here in their local area. Let's check out that video. Let's watch and listen.

[00:05:29]>> With all the talk about gas prices going up due to the war in Iran right now, I saw a post on social media on Tuesday morning that really caught my attention.

[00:05:36]It's from the owner of an oil change franchise with locations mainly in the Midwest and East Coast saying that he heard Mobile and Shell told retailers that they have no packaged product to send them and to expect bare motor oil shelves. That would obviously be concerning to drivers here in Las Vegas, adding another wrinkle to the situation overseas.

[00:05:55]>> It's really hitting me hard. Like I keep having to fill up on gas. Anytime I find like a cheaper gas, it's like I need gas again.

[00:06:02]>> So, I wanted to check in with a local auto shop right here in the Northwest Valley to see what their motor oil supply looks like and if they're prepping for any shortages.

[00:06:10]>> It is definitely a scary thing to be thinking about um with shortages everywhere and everything that's happening overseas in order to get this product in.

[00:06:17]>> That's Jimmy Lodge. He owns my auto service at Cheyenne and Jones and tells me his oil supplier has assured him there won't be interruptions, but prices are going to go up.

[00:06:26]>> Unfortunately, I might have to up it a dollar or two, but for right now, I am trying to keep the prices the same and trying to help out the customers even if I am taking a dollar or two loss against my oil changes.

[00:06:35]>> Can you help explain like why there might be some questions or some shortages with synthetic oil? Oh, so apparently from what my oil rep told me, the base oil and additives they put in that full synthetic, that's where the shortage is and that's where the blockade is able to make the full synthetic. So, ingredients that go into there.

[00:06:51]>> Right now, Jimmy tells me the best thing you can do is stay on top of your car's usual maintenance.

[00:06:56]>> Don't slack on that cuz that's going to cost you a whole lot more down the line.

[00:07:00]>> But that hasn't stopped local drivers like Jennifer from thinking about buying her own oil in the future. I would just have like someone come to my house, put the oil I already have at my house in and that would be cheaper to just pay for the little bit of labor versus like, you know, maybe be $100 next time.

[00:07:15]>> If there's something going on here in the Northwest Valley that you think I should know about or maybe you've seen a spike in motor oil prices at this store, let me know. Shoot me an email atktv.com.

[00:07:24]>> Now, it's not just your local independent shop that's hearing things from their suppliers or are concerned.

[00:07:31]It's also the manufacturers themselves that are starting to release memos to their dealership networks. And from the drive, and this was also through Costa as well, that Toyota has released a TSB regarding the oil sourges. And from the drive, let's talk about what is going on through this article. Toyota reportedly sent a bulletin to its service departments late last month. It was dated April 30th, warning them of an impending shortage of certain oil weights. According to the memo, Exxon Mobile expects ongoing shortages of 0W8 and 0W16 due to the situation in the prochemical market. And this memo instructs the dealerships to substitute heavier oils in order to cover any shortfalls in supply. Toyota calls these memos pant parts and accessories news today bulletins and cost a cap of the NASA's owner of a large chain of oil change outlets shared the first page of the April 30 edition which lays the whole thing out pretty plainly.

[00:08:29]Now we really can't verify any of this cuz as the article continues on they were unable to find out any news from their spokesperson through Toyota.

[00:08:39]However, this isn't unprecedented because there has been TSBs in the past from Toyota, most recently during the part shortages and the earlier days of the pandemic where Toyota did tell their dealerships they could run a thicker oil. So, this isn't anything new. And in fact, these TSBs do go way back to 2006.

[00:09:02]So, 20 years of this. So, in some ways, we can kind of verify it, but for this specific one, we really don't know yet.

[00:09:10]Further doubling down on what we're hearing from the drive, here we have another article from hutcars.com, which they go a bit more into detail as to what cars are affected in the lineup.

[00:09:20]According to the bulletin, dealers are being instructed to reduce 0W8 demand by filling some ZW8 oil changes with 0W16 instead, a slightly thicker oil. Toyota also says some ZW16 oil changes can temporarily use 0W20.

[00:09:37]The company specifically notes these substitutions are intended for one service interval only. These oils are highly specialized used in newer Toyota engines, especially hybrids and efficiency focused powertrains. They become a major part of how automakers squeeze maximum fuel economy out of modern vehicles. That detail matters because enthusiasts already debate ultra thin oils constantly. Some orers believe oils like 0W8 are pushing tolerances too far in the name of fuel economy, while others argue modern engines are engineered specifically around them.

[00:10:10]Either way, this bulletin is going to pour gasoline on that debate. Here are the models that are affected. The Toyota Camry for the 2025 model and newer, Toyota Corolla hybrid, Toyota Crown 2.5 all-wheel drive hybrid, Toyota Grand Highlander hybrid, and the Toyota Yars Yars Cross. So, a very small list right now, but this could be growing as time moves on. Yesterday, to get some answers, I put out a couple stories on Instagram discussing the motor oil shortages. And as you guys know, I work with about 24 dealerships in the Boston area. And these stories did attract some people that I know in the dealership network saying, "Mike, we got memos.

[00:10:49]Mike, we got TSBS a couple of weeks ago saying the exact same thing from mobile." and I can verify one brand and it is General Motors. Now, for those of you who are still skeptical, I have another article for you. We're going to dive into some of the paragraphs here and General Motors is brought up and they might be actually most affected by this initially for these potential motor oil shortages. This is from the truth about cars. According to the Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association, a group of its representatives met with the US Department of Energy recently to discuss rising concerns about shortages of base oil supplies. Base oils are used as lubricants and are categorized in four groups. However, it's group three based oils that are preparing to put a bigger crimp on American consumers.

[00:11:35]Group three base oils are used by automakers to lubricate the insides of car engines in the form of synthetic oil and they are most affected at the straight of Hormuz remains closed due to the war with Iran. 60% of group 3 base oils are used in automotive applications i.e. synthetic oils. Nearly 45% of group 3 base oils comes from the Persian Gulf.

[00:11:57]Either the tankers unable to use the straight of Hormuz or from production facilities currently offline in the region. The ILMA points out there are no simple ways to resolve the problem.

[00:12:08]Compounding the issue, South Korea, responsible for about 30% of US Group 3 imports, relies heavily on crude oil shipments from the Persian Gulf. While Korean refiners may pivot to alternative crude sources, lower yields are expected. Exasperating the issue is that US oil producers aren't positioned to take up the slack. While they do produce group 3 base oil, the additional capacity to make up the shortfall won't be operational until next year when refineries from Chevron and Exxon Mobile come online. Now, skipping a couple paragraphs down here, we have General Motors coming into play. General Motors may be the first affected as it Dexos oil products rely on group three base oils, meaning GM product owners may find it hard or expensive or both to get the right Dexos product for their vehicles.

[00:12:58]So concerned is the ILMA about this issue, it appealed to GM to allow for temporary flexibility for Dexos licenses so they can adjust the blends used to produce Dexos products. Now, as the article said earlier on, they brought up what's happening in the Middle East, which is going to affect everybody, right? But also South Korea. Now, why is South Korea important to this particular topic and for General Motors? Well, with the Chevrolet Tracks, the Trailblazer, they all use parts from South Korea.

[00:13:28]Those cars are built in South Korea. So, it's very possible that those particular models are going to be affected the most. I don't know what's going to happen on the higher end with the pickups, with the larger SUVs.

[00:13:41]Obviously, we have to dive into diesel at some point, but it seems like Chevrolet right now is going to be most affected. And then that might extend to Hyundai and Kia. We really don't know.

[00:13:51]not going to jump on that and not going to create any panic. So the remaining question is where do we go from here?

[00:13:58]What does the future look like? What does the summer look like? If history is any indication, this summer gas prices will likely increase, right? More demand. People are driving a lot more.

[00:14:07]The same could be said for motor oil as well. Now, I don't think there's going to be a run on motor oil. I I really don't. It's not like toilet paper like we had a couple of years ago because how many people are actually changing their own oil in their driveways? Let's be real here. It's maybe 10%. That might be generous cuz the only people who really change their own oil are car enthusiasts and people who work on their own vehicles and that's a dwindling dwindling market. You're looking at 5 to 10%. So I don't think people are going to be running to the stores even though on X and I think people are trying to profit off of this like I got to go run to the store. I got to go get it. I don't think that's going to happen. But what you will see though, and I'm already seeing it right now with what I paid 10 days ago, there's going to be an increase on motor oil changes. So instead of paying $80 or $90, you might be paying $130. And and this is a Volkswagen. This isn't, you know, a Lamborghini. This isn't an Audi or or even a Porsche. So we can only imagine what those customers are paying on the higher end because that's a richer oil that they'll be using. So, we really don't know exactly what's going to happen, but I would say my guesstimation will be you're paying more for oil. So, get that oil change sooner rather than later and then see where we go from there. At current trajectory, I think eventually there will be a shortage if that blockade continues, if there's still disruptions and like one of the articles said, you know, the refineries in the US on the US side aren't going to be up until next year.

[00:15:38]So, at the earliest, if things don't change, we won't really see any relief until probably next spring, next summer.

[00:15:48]So, I'm not going to say panic. This is no time to panic. This is no time to freak out, but you will be seeing it more. You're going to be feeling that pain in your wallet. So, just keep all of this in mind. Don't freak out. But, I will stay on top of this because this seems to be gaining a lot of traction.

[00:16:05]And if Toyota is releasing a TSB, I know General Motors has, a lot more manufacturers will be doing the same over the next few weeks. Guys, thank you so much for joining me for this video.

[00:16:16]Stay tuned for more because this could be the beginning of some possible shortages in the industry.