Trump Stuck In ‘Catch‑22’ On Iran As Time And Hormuz Blockade Hurt Both Sides: West Asia Expert

追加: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]We have some breaking news coming in on our global. US President Donald Trump has claimed that negotiations with Iran uh are progressing positively. But he also at the same time warned that if diplomacy fails, the conflict could return to the battlefield bigger and stronger than ever. In a truth social post, Trump also pushed for a historic expansion of the Abraham Accords, urging key Muslim nations, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey to join the agreement alongside a possible Iran deal.

[00:00:31]And joining us live in the broadcast is West Asia expert group captain Raj Shakhra Maha on the broadcast. Very good evening to you sir and group captain Ma how do you see the latest development coming in while there is hope even the global oil prices are down but uh how do you interpret as the latest uh in you know statement that has come in from Donald Trump. He also has urged for linking the Abraham Accords Uh uh very interesting. Uh thank you Raxita for inviting me for this show. Uh this war, the blockade, the ceasefire and now the negotiation cannot be understood without understanding the reasons why America went into this war in the first place. There were precisely four objectives uh of this war. One was stopping Iran from going nuclear. second was dismantling its missile arsenal uh by which it was threatening the Gulf states and asking Iran to stop arming and financing the terror uh groups like Hamas, Asbullah, Houthis and other Shia militias in Iraq and uh Syria and the fourth was of course keeping the hormones free for international traffic.

[00:01:45]Um I mean uh what America has achieved till now on all these four primary objectives is what is of crucial importance. Now uh many have talked about regime change. Regime change was desirable but it was not the primary goal. The idea was to degrade Iran. uh and then Israel was in this war because Iran with all the above factor that I have just now mentioned was posing an existential threat to its existence and Iran had to be stopped. Now let's see what this war has achieved till now.

[00:02:28]Iran is completely devastated economically and militarily. It's a nuclear facility destroyed, pushed behind decades. missile power degraded but still large quantity remains uh intact which is a cause of our worry for the US. Uh now uh though uh you see uh hormones remain closed though the proxies this Iranian proxies Hezbollah Houthi and Hamas has been completely disseminated but the hormones blockage continues that's the problem the last one is the actual blackmailing chip of the IRGC by which it is it appears to be in some kind of position of strength in this negotiations.

[00:03:16]This Iran is achieving not through any this blockage of hormones Iran is achieving not through some any conventional military strength. It is left with none as you know but by using its geography and asymmetric war strategy.

[00:03:31]Now um it is not that America cannot break this blockade through military means but considering the nature of this asymmetric strategy of Iran such a venture can prove very expensive for America and Trump is not really not at this point of time at least he has no appetite left to take that kind of risks of heavy uh attrition on his side. So uh so there are two important things that is going on. The most important factor at the moment is time and this time factor is playing hell on both sides.

[00:04:06]The every day of delay in not opening the hormones is costing $500 million state revenue to to Iran IIGC. But on the American side do it is not losing anything by this blockage because America is a net fuel crude oil exporter. He doesn't need the oil or hormones. But the problem is the domestic pressure under which uh Trump is operating at the moment and there is a lot of pressure in domestically in America who are against this war and November there is going to be a midterm election and this this war being very unpopular in America um Trump wants to wind it up fast enough.

[00:04:56]Now the interesting part of is that if Trump closes this u this conflict without achieving the four objectives that I have mentioned above it will be treated as um Trump's capitulation and uh not having achieved it defeat >> so it is it is a catch 20 situation though uh America can sort a problem militarily but it it is not willing to do it. Time is not in its favor and therefore Trump is trying to also delay the thing to put uh more pain on Iran to come around to the table. So this is the kind of thing that is going on and Iran is a you know it is not a normal state. It is a revolutionary jihadi uh theological state with a national objective of exporting um Shia revolutionary ideology and uh domination of the middle eastern region. So it has got a very different orientation. It is not a normal state uh which is confined within its border, wants to live peacefully, prosper and look after it people. No, it it wants to export revolution. It wants to it is a um it is a revision revisionist power.

[00:06:18]It wants to throw uh destroy Israel and wants to throw America out of out of Middle East. Now these are the objectives with which the Islamic regime in Iran is operating with this mindset and they are so jihadi that they though they have lost almost everything but they are not ready to give up and such enemy adversary is very difficult to difficult to call look in terms of defeat and uh win. They are defeated but they will not accept it. And this is the irony of the situation I I I think and that's why Trump is saying uh negotiator no go slow till the time you achieved some tangible objectives the four objectives uh that has been uh I I put up just now >> right uh group captain metame thanking us with uh your thoughts on that very elaborate insight and putting it there uh putting it out for our viewers. Thank you so much group Captain Mata joining us on Republic Global.