Do we have a “Godzilla” el-Nino on the way?

追加: 2026-06-02

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[00:00:05]>> On 702 and Cape Talk.

[00:00:10]>> Southern Africa is once again facing growing concerns over the possible return of a powerful El Niño weather pattern with some climate scientists warning it could become one of the strongest on record. El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon linked to unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and it is typically associated with hotter and drier conditions across much of Southern Africa. On the line with us is Professor Roelof Burger, climatologist at North-West University.

[00:00:35]Professor, thank you so much for joining us. How are you this morning?

[00:00:39]>> I'm very cold here in the center of South Africa. Morning.

[00:00:43]>> Yeah, we're climbing out into into fridges to get into our offices this morning, but I'm a huge tree hugger, Prof, and I I tend to overthink and and and a lot of time I'm concerned I look at a lot of the conservation happening and for listeners unfamiliar with the signs, what exactly is El Niño and why does it have such a significant influence on weather patterns in Southern Africa?

[00:01:06]>> Okay, so El Niño is basically what we call a blob of warm water that accumulates in the eastern Pacific.

[00:01:16]And this has been shown to cause these global disruption of weather patterns.

[00:01:21]So, what happens is the the easterly winds over South America weakens a little bit and then we get more of this warm water bubbling up from from the subsurface of the ocean.

[00:01:35]And that then has a secondary impact on the weather system. So, we get more uplift in that region and that spirals and impacts weather globally.

[00:01:47]>> And some scientists have suggested that this could be a super or even Godzilla El Niño. What are they seeing in the data that has prompted such strong warnings?

[00:01:55]>> So, so basically is the speed of development. So, these days we we have uh satellites that can very accurately observe how much uh uh heat there is in the oceans. So, they've been seeing this build-up of warm water underneath the surface in that area of the ocean.

[00:02:14]And then uh for the last month or two, we we see this rapid increase in the temperatures. So, uh but on on average, we look at how much more uh the the heat the water is warm in that area. And when when it's warmer than about 2 2° C than the the mean, we we would typically call it this uh super El Niño. Now, at the moment it's just about 0.5° warmer, but what is indicating this forecast is the rapid increase in the temperature and then this build energy that has seemingly been built up.

[00:02:53]So, all the models are forecasting this to develop here by November-December.

[00:02:58]And it does seem if we look at the trajectory, does seem like it will be a very strong one.

[00:03:04]>> So, it's not our first rodeo as as you've mentioned, Prof. And historically, these events have often uh brought drought, crop uh losses, and water shortages to the region region.

[00:03:14]How concerned should South Africans be about agriculture and security over the next 12 or 8 to 18 months?

[00:03:20]>> Sure. So, one thing that is that is particular about this upcoming season is that we've had very good rains this year.

[00:03:27]And uh the soil moisture will be will be not that dry.

[00:03:32]So, what we've seen in in recent El Niños is the combination of longer-term droughts and then the heating is the things that should concern us. Now, the heating is is concerning because the last 3 years is the the warmest 3 on records. So, and it seems like it's going to continue. So, there is quite a bit of concern. Uh our big El Niños was uh the 24 season then 20 15 2016 and then 98. Now, 98 wasn't that bad for us, but the 2016 one we saw maize production drop by 50% in South Africa.

[00:04:07]>> Sure.

[00:04:08]>> And then the last one uh 2324 we saw 20% drop. So, it's not a a given that that it will be a that that bad, but uh in all indications is that there is some concern.

[00:04:23]>> And it seems the C-word, climate change, is frequently mentioned alongside El Niño. How does a warming planet potentially alter or amplify the impacts of an already powerful El Niño event?

[00:04:35]>> What we've seen uh in in years, right?

[00:04:38]Like people that's been around for decades in the field, uh 20 years ago there was these predictions that climate change will increase uh weather uh and climate variability. And what that is what we living through. This seesaw pattern seems to be coming worse. So, what what the main prediction is is that we will see uh more extreme El Niño and La Niñas, which is the the the cooling event. And uh you know, if we look at the last 5 to 10 years, it does seem so.

[00:05:10]The record is not that long, but it does seem that we getting this seesaw pattern is becoming more extreme.

[00:05:18]>> I was looking at some of the developments and I think it's it's positive progress being made um by the agriculture um minister, Mr. John Steenhuisen. And given that not every strong El Niño produces the same outcomes, what are the key indicators climatologists will be watching in the coming months and what practical preparations should governments, farmers, and ordinary South Africans be making now?

[00:05:41]>> Sure. So, I mentioned the the the soil moisture is a very important one, which is counting in our favor. And then the the second one is the the the mean temperatures. So, we are predicting a a warmer than normal winter. And then as the as the El Nino develops, that is the thing that we have to monitor.

[00:06:04]If it swings back fairly soon and we only have 1 year of this extreme El Nino, things might not be so bad, but we have to revisit this issue in in 3 to 6 months and and then see if if there's a persistence in this this one, concern should be higher.

[00:06:22]>> Thank you so much, Prof. It's been an absolute pleasure talking to you and just ameliorating some of those concerns we have.

[00:06:28]Just as a parting shot, Prof, I know you've given us quite an exhaustive exhaustive insight. What should we be paying attention to as South Africans? You mentioned this from an agriculture perspective. As an ordinary person outside of this conversation, what else should we be looking at as because a lot of the time we don't pay attention we what we are guilty of is not paying attention.

[00:06:51]>> Sure. So, so one of the the big misnomers is we talk about this thing called a natural disasters. And of course, a disaster is man-made. So, we have these natural hazards, but it's how we respond and prepare that turns things into disasters. And and and as you rightly say, we should be prepared for weather that changes and climate variability. And if we if we approach [clears throat] this problem correctly, then the impacts won't be that bad.

[00:07:22]>> And I think from the natural I didn't want to go to this aspect, but you the national disaster management act. How do we work cohesively because there's proactive ways to to to look at these kind of disasters with regards to that. And then from an insurance perspective, I'm thinking, is it maybe not a good idea to have conversations about what happens, does my insurance cover natural disasters?

[00:07:46]>> Yeah, so the the one thing that we and it is there in the in the discipline of disaster reduction and also in in our act the big thing is don't respond right, prepare.

[00:07:58]Uh diversify our economy. Uh our farmers must diversify so that they don't put all their eggs in one basket. Like if there is a basket like maize, we we know it is is a crop that will be sensitive to these specific specific weather phenomena. We have to make sure that we we've diversified.

[00:08:17]And uh get away from this response mindset. Uh let's let's get into uh building resilience uh in communities.

[00:08:27]And everything that we do and everything that we don't do, right? Like if we don't uh have services that work, we increase the the vulnerability of these communities. So so it's not it's not it's not one specific thing, it's everything that we do. We have to do in a sustainable and uh resilience building way.

[00:08:47]>> I love those terms, disaster reduction and resistance building, because what concerns me, prof, is when I look at, for example, um informal settlements that are, for example, being established on on loose land. You can You can see literally the soil is eroded. And it's it's a difficult conversation between obviously these there's there's housing issues and those kind of things, but you want to implore the community and say, you actually not safe here.

[00:09:14]>> Yes, and it's very difficult when you're poor, you don't have that luxury of foresight, right? And that's when when the government should be stepping in and and protecting communities with the future in mind.

[00:09:27]When when it's dry, people encroach on these wetland and unstable areas. And when the next cycle of of rain comes, they will be exposed.

[00:09:38]So, that's when we have to be planning and thinking and making sure that we we approach the problem carefully.

[00:09:46]>> Thank you so much, Prof- Prof- Professor Roelof Burger, climatologist at North-West University, giving us more foresight and insight regarding the El Niño, um which is apparently on the way or not. Prof, thank you so much for your time and entertaining us so extensively this morning. And to our listeners as well, I've received some wonderful messages from old and new listeners. It's been absolutely wonderful being with you this morning. Wasanga Mehana, I'll be alone.

[00:10:11]I'll be back with you again. Africa returns on Wednesday. I see there's lovely messages and WhatsApps here. Uh it's been an absolute pleasure. As usual, we've got Bongani Bingwa coming up on the 702 Breakfast Show as well as Lester Kiewit. That's it from me, Wasanga Mehana. Thank you so much to our listeners and also our producers and technical producers. It's 6:6