Bitcoin Micro & Macro Outlook

Añadido: 2026-05-05

[00:00:01]Uh, good morning and welcome back to Market Master Will and Dattenburg. Today we're going to be discussing Bitcoin and we were going to be discussing this current channel that the market is in.

[00:00:14]We can see that this bear market rally has just about made its culmination. And why do we say that right now? Well, first of all, before we look at the indicators, we talk about squaring price and time.

[00:00:30]And as I showed you in previous tutorials, after 70 So, this is our bottom at 79 here. And after 78, 77 days, we squared a new bottom at 59. So, from that period, we noted that a low could take place. And from this period here of 59, we noted that after 59 days, we should be experiencing a change in trend.

[00:01:00]We did. We made a a low in this period here, and we've moved up in this bear market rally, re- re- challenging the topping area of this channel and this sloped trend line, which is parallel with our lower one.

[00:01:18]And it's obviously the same parallel as our previous our previous channel here is the same parallel trend line. So, I wanted to point that out.

[00:01:31]Now, after 78, 77 days, the price of Bitcoin is 77,78,000.

[00:01:40]We made it as high as 79.4, and it looks like a failure is about to take place where this change is about to roll over. As you can see, I have kept that arrow here from our previous tutorials because I wanted to point out that, you know, we can sometimes be a little a little soon on our analysis. However, it sure looks like this rally has caught a lot of traders off guard where they're all screaming for, you know, a moon boy move. And I just do not believe that we're about to experience that.

[00:02:18]I believe we're about to experience another round of downward pressure, retesting our 59 level. Getting below these levels here will be an indication that the market is really rolling over into a short period here or a short trade.

[00:02:37]And we would be moving down to our medium trend line here in the 50s and of course 40s. And of course, populated a line down on the 40 because we talked about how price swings around from its tops in the previous channels and has moved 405° on our square of nine, which we've showed you previously. So, I'm sticking to my guns and my analysis that we're still in a bear market campaign and that we'll be moving down to the end of the year. And let's go take a look now at the macro cycle here over on TradingView.

[00:03:19]And what I wanted to show you here on the monthly chart is all the the market cycles from the tops running from our first, second, third, and this fourth cycle, which is where we just made our top here from this point here.

[00:03:38]So, this fourth cycle is running run out. And now we are starting to move down.

[00:03:45]And in these cycles, I wanted to point out that these are all of 12-month periods. So, let's just put our counter on here and let's move out. So, you can see that after 11, 12, 13, and 14 months, this first campaign subsided.

[00:04:04]Let's go look at the second cycle. So, again, from our topping period all lined up, we can see that this 12, 13, and 14-month period, the distribution cycle had ended in in this downward campaign. However, we had another retest further out at the 21st month. So, that's something to keep in mind.

[00:04:30]Moving down to the third cycle, we move over and we can see that we have dropped down after 12 months, 13, and 14 months. This one moved into the 15th month before distribution had ended and the new campaign started to move up.

[00:04:50]That's our third cycle in 2017.

[00:04:53]Let's go have a look at our current market cycle where we called the bottom at 15,000 after 12, 13, and 14 months.

[00:05:01]Here again, we noted that the market was making a low and cycling again into the 12, 13, and 14 months. So, you can see how how well this time this time period played out in our current market that we've just completed here before we had our nearly 3-year run up to our top, which we called at 1,067 days from our low.

[00:05:32]And we also stated that um we were stating the 1,067-day count or 35 months was quite typical of the last three campaigns. However, our first campaign made top sooner here.

[00:05:54]And by the time we had made it out to around the 35th month, this market had reasserted a new low as it moved up in significant strength, which we have not seen Bitcoin do again these other cycles here, the second, the third, and fourth cycle.

[00:06:14]It just has not produced the whipsaw energy that we saw in our first cycle back in 2011.

[00:06:23]So, we are currently monitoring our current cycle right now for a capitulation low. Most of the energy does take place within the 6-month to the 12-month period here as is can be seen from taking a look at the big picture and comparing all our tops, bottoms, and our future tops.

[00:06:47]Looking at this now, we can see that for us to see a top in the next market, it will come in the 2029 area.

[00:06:56]And 2029 happens to be a 100-year cycle from the great stock market move down in 1929. We had a capitulation and the market just dived down after having a a very, very strong run up in the Roaring Twenties. And I just wanted to point out that our analysis is pointing to sometime in 2029 for a culmination top.

[00:07:29]However, our first cycle is not agreeing with this modeling. It states that it was going to come in or it did come in sooner. So, sometime in 2028 in this period, March and April, and May, we could be expecting to see a topping pattern happen in our future movements. This also agrees with our second cycle with a topping pattern in this area here for May 2028 moving forward and that this third cycle we moved up into this into this period here where the channel was trying to re-push upon the old tops here. And then once it overcame that, we started to make our tops into the market cycle here.

[00:08:20]Again, looking at our our current cycle, this move here, we moved up and our first topping pattern again for this market to turn bullish in January 2027.

[00:08:38]We'll be looking for tops to come out in the January, February, and March period and extend possibly as late into the May period here, which would be equal to our second cycle here and equal to our first cycle. So, we're watching these areas for these tops to appear.

[00:09:01]Furthermore, when we spoke about our second metric, we were talking about the uh the halving event, which took place in 2024.

[00:09:13]And I stated to you very strongly in some videos that the top would not come in until the 17th and the 19th month from the halving event. And of course, that's exactly and precisely what happened in this current cycle. And this has happened in all of the previous cycles.

[00:09:32]We've seen tops from halving events within the 17 and 19-month era. So, looking at that now, we're expecting the same thing to take place here in our new cycle where we think the halving event will appear here somewhere around April.

[00:09:55]Well, we believe it's 2027 or sorry, 2028 and 17 to 19 months would bring us perfectly out to this 2029 area as a second metric to prove that uh the analysis is stating that we could have these potential tops for the end of the campaign where accumulation will end and distribution will therefore take place and we are going to see this play out again in the future. So, I wanted to just show you how we use the past time frames and we're looking for patterns of time to culminate and distribution and accumulation to begin again before the campaigns can roll over into a new bull market. So, that's some of the analysis that we have been showing you and we wanted to just let you know that uh you know, we still feel this market has uh some more bear bearish signs and it's starting to show a bull trap coming up here as the chart here is uh taking a moment to populate.

[00:11:17]So, within that uh structure here we've uh we've identified that again we're into another channel since uh since our top and that uh it's very likely impossible that we uh we experience the same downward pressures and these channels that uh have taken place. So, we're in our second major channel here and we're starting to push upon these uh sharp angles that are parallel down from our tops and of course I put this angle here on our current market top after this violent whipsaw bottom here and we've lined it up with that top and brought it down at the same parallel angle and it is touching upon and we have three crossings of trend lines here. Our top trend line on our channel here, our downward aggressive main trend and then our our bear market rally trend line here which is equal to all these other These These angles that I have here they're all the same angles that take place before the market flops and rolls over. So, I wanted to just give you guys a little bit of a heads up that um you know, I did I called for this to tear down and change. However, the uh this Clarity Act and a bunch of things going on here in the market has driven us out further and right now we are 77, 78 and 79 days from our bottom coming up here and that's precisely and exactly where the pricing is and it's all crossing right here on our chart here and I wanted to point that out to you.

[00:13:12]So, for all of you that are wishing for it to go up, you know, at the bad news is is we're really about to experience some more downward pressure before this market uh the accumulation and distribution cycle of it takes place.

[00:13:31]Anyways, that's what I wanted to show you today.

[00:13:34]If you can, just uh hit that like button, share, subscribe and uh we'll get back to you really soon with some more information. Our channel was just interviewed the other day by ATS Geopolitics. So, go ahead and have a look for that video.

[00:13:52]I'll try to link it on to the end of this uh video. Peace and love to you, brothers and sisters.