The Democrats' Geography Problem JUST GOT WORSE!

追加: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]Hello everybody and welcome back to Red Eagle Politics. Make sure you guys like this video down below and subscribe to the channel if you are new. So we have the updated map that estimates interstate migration. So we're talking about people that move across the country, what states are gaining residents, which states are losing residence. So, it's important to take a look at this to understand the future of the electoral map for one, but also the future of which states are likely to grow in the future um you know even ahead of like 2040 in that census. So you're talking about where the you know center of power in the country is what states are going to get more house seats and it shows a very similar pattern to uh what we see in a presidential election almost because you look at where people are moving to where people are leaving where people are going and it's not a onetoone you still have rust belt states like Ohio even if you want to throw Iowa in there as examples of states where you have red states losing population. You also have some in the Great Plains, although a lot of that is like people just dying out in rural Nebraska, rural Kansas potentially that could be getting factored into that data. Uh but it would make sense why people might want to leave those states.

[00:01:23]There's not a lot of opportunity there if we're going to be completely honest.

[00:01:26]And you look at states like California and states on the East Coast, the blue states, the Democrats, they love to tout how great the blue states are compared to the red states. and they use these metrics that are a bit handpicked and kind of ignore the nuances behind it all. Um, for example, demography, like they'll be like Mississippi, it's a red state, but it's like a bunch of, you know, rural poor black people and poor white people to a lesser extent that live in a place like Mississippi, whereas you don't really have that same demographic in a place like California at the same level. So, it's not really a onetoone comparison, but still people are leaving California and going to Mississippi, which kind of should prove that, you know, they're doing something right and California is still doing something wrong because at least you can afford to live in some of these places.

[00:02:15]Red states, even in the quote unquote deep south, are growing the fastest when you look at it. Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, Texas, you look across the country. Now, on the Democrat side, you have Delaware because people are retiring from New York and they're now moving to Delaware. Uh, which again, Delaware is not really growing enough to get another like House seat, but New York is losing population. So, you kind of see what's going on in this map.

[00:02:45]We're going to analyze it more. We're going to break it down. We're going to look at the future of the House. We're going to look at the future of the presidential map as well because of this. But first, I have to tell you guys about my friends over at Cove Pier. You may have seen this. Researchers have been documenting male fish developing female characteristics in rivers all across the United States. It comes from birth control pills that wastewater treatment plants can't fully filter out, and it's in the same water that runs into your home. I say no thanks. Which is why I use Cove Pure to purify my water. So, here's how it actually works.

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[00:04:23]All right guys, so back to the video.

[00:04:25]You kind of see this shifting uh going on here where a lot of red states are growing. You have some blue states that are growing as well. Uh Colorado used to be growing, but it kind of capped out.

[00:04:36]Same thing with Oregon and Washington.

[00:04:37]They had lower taxes than California. So you had a lot of liberal Californians move up there. But now you have a lot of like conservatives and you could see this when you look at Idaho and the growth you have there. You have people leaving rural Oregon going across the border to Idaho. Same thing up in Washington uh state there in the northwestern part of the country. Idaho is the second fastest growing. South Carolina is actually the first. So you have conservatives that are leaving. But still in many cases like California and New York, what's left behind due to the poor leadership? It's red pilling people to an extent because the states keep getting redder as they lose conservatives to other states. For example, you look at New Yorkers going to Florida. Florida's getting redder.

[00:05:21]Although Florida's kind of getting a bit full. I would encourage people to think about moving somewhere else because they keep just getting residents and residents. I did a whole video on why Republicans probably should rethink moving to Florida unless they really really have to live there just because again it's getting overcrowded. It's, you know, the cost of living is going to go up no matter who's in charge for one because of that, but also again, you talk about other states that Republicans could lock down. Pennsylvania is one people aren't leaving. They're not moving there. And even a state like Wisconsin, that growth is largely from the Chicago area, and that means a lot of liberals are moving up near like Madison or Milwaukee. That's kind of what's caused the wow counties to move a little bit to the left more than anything. So that's kind of why you look at Wisconsin, it was the rightmost of the three rust belt states in 2020 than it was the leftmost to a lot of people's surprise in 2024. So when you're looking at that, it's like, yeah, you look at Wisconsin, something's going on there.

[00:06:21]And a lot of it is because you have a lot of people leaving the Chicago area, going to a state that's a little bit less blue, a little bit better run. and they're going to move the state to the left possibly depending on where they really stand politically. Although it is true that at the same time a lot of Californians that have moved to Nevada, moved to Arizona, moved to Texas, they've actually pushed those states to the right even as California has moved to the right. So it's not like you, you know, always see a blue state lose population that means that the, you know, red states that people are moving to get bluer. It's kind of a misconception, but there are some times where that can actually apply.

[00:07:00]Definitely Delaware surprised a lot of people because a lot of states uh in that region snap back to like the 2016 margins or even redder in 2024, but Delaware didn't really move very much despite the fact that Biden got completely screwed. And a lot of that is because you have a lot of people from like New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, liberals mainly moving to uh you know, southern Delaware and kind of moving the state a bit to the left in the process.

[00:07:29]So it's it's interesting to see that happen. Also, another interesting thing to note, Georgia was growing rapidly, the Atlanta area, in Trump's first term, and that's why the state is more competitive now. Growth to Georgia has slowed, growth to Florida has slowed.

[00:07:45]Even growth to Texas is, you know, it's still growing a fair amount, but it's kind of slowed as well. You have a lot of people choosing to move to other places like South Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee, even parts of eastern North Carolina, even Idaho. That's where they're choosing to move to um in this decade or at least this part of the decade. But regardless, we do have to take a look at where states are still projected to gain electoral votes. South Carolina still not in the threshold.

[00:08:14]Even though Wisconsin's turned a corner in growth, it's not growing fast enough to justify them keeping a house seat.

[00:08:20]Neither is Minnesota. Illinois is losing two. Pennsylvania, Rhode Island losing one, Oregon losing one, California losing four, and New York losing two.

[00:08:30]Meanwhile, every state that's gaining an electoral vote or more is a red state or at least was in 2024. You have Idaho, Utah, Arizona. Uh those are all gaining a seat. Texas and Florida gaining combined eight which is just absurd and and you know ridiculous to an extent but in a good way obviously. And then Georgia and North Carolina both kind of swing states. North Carolina leaning a bit to the right. Georgia not as right leaning as it used to be. Uh Georgia will be picking up a single electoral vote and a single house seat there. So regardless looking at what could come from redistricting. We covered this in a video, did pretty well. You see Republicans at 233, Democrats at 199 at like the end of like a redistricting war taken to the full but realistic max with like a few toss up uh districts thrown in there as well. So yeah, 233 to 199 that would mean Republicans would win it. But in part because Texas and Florida, not only with the new court ruling, do you have more room to work with in Texas and Florida, but you're also going to get more house seats that are almost certainly going to even be red house seats. And it's like Utah.

[00:09:45]They did that ruling there. But they probably wouldn't be able to have a 50 map anyways in Utah, just given the geography there. It possibly could be a dummy mander. You name it. Now they're going to be able to just have a blue vote sync. And now they're going to have four additional red house seats. Uh, and that blue seat's going to come from like California who loses seats. New York is losing seats. Illinois is losing seats.

[00:10:08]So regardless, when you look at it like this, Republicans are in fairly decent shape overall when it comes down to the growth of certain states and the rate that they're growing where they're probably going to be able to maintain control of the House throughout the 2030s if this continues. the presidency.

[00:10:28]Again, this is more easy than some people might think for them to go out there and do this. Is the updated map right here. Uh now, we know that a lot of the states that are not filled in might go blue. But the question is by how much and how can Republicans gain enough to get to 270. If they get Arizona, if they get Nevada, that's 247.

[00:10:51]North Carolina, not quite the ball game.

[00:10:54]But again, we talk about Georgia. If Republicans, given the fact that they have good geography there, they could actually do this thing that uh Maine and Nebraska do and Maine rule the state.

[00:11:07]And if they did that, you could look and we can go here, edit or or no, it actually would be split. you get to split Georgia and the Democrats might be able to, even if they win the state, get to like five or six electoral votes. But Republicans still, no matter what, have 11 baked in and then boom, you win the presidency, you don't need to win the rust belt. Although, I will say Pennsylvania should still be on the table for Republicans. So should Michigan. So even should Wisconsin despite some of the, you know, outgrowth of Chicago that we talked about. So, you're in a good shape if you're the Republicans. In terms of the electoral college, it seemed like back in the day, Republicans would need to win every single tossup and then sweep a couple blue states, mainly the ones in the rust belt. Now, those states are swing states, if not even moving towards potential red status by the end of the decade into the 2030s to the point where you would much rather be the Republicans. And instead of talking about some like electoral winter wiping out the GOP to be a regional party, which I think there's a fair amount of the old guard in the Republican party that still wants that for one reason or another secretly, they'll never admit it. Seems like the Republican party is in a tough position to dominate the 2030s, bearing some sort of realignment where the Democrats actually become sane, which I would not anticipate. But if they did that, it would still be a victory for the Overton window as a whole. So anyways guys, thanks for watching this video. Like this video down below, comment down below.

[00:12:41]Subscribe to the channel. Hit the bell for notifications so you never miss another video. Follow me on social media. The links are all in the description down below. And I will see you guys in the next one. Red Eagle out.