Response to Canada entering technical recession ‘could get dangerous for this government’

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[00:00:00]Let's bring in our front bench to talk about that. With me tonight, former New Brunswick Liberal Premier Brian Galan is here with us in studio. He's now the CEO of Space Canada. Former Conservative Deputy Leader Lisa Raid is with us.

[00:00:10]She's the vice chair in the office of the CEO at CIBC. CTV News political analysts and former leader of the federal NDP, Tom Ware is with us, as is the Toronto Stars Queens Park Bureau Chief Rob Benzy. Hi, everybody. Good to see you, Brian. I'll start with I'll start with you. Kind of an interesting double reaction there. Sean Casey, one Liberal MP, kind of saying, "I'm not worried. We'll be fine." and Rob Olifant sort of addressing the the the the impact of a recession, let's say, on the ground with people. Um, do you think it's a big deal that the prime minister hasn't said much about this? Actually hasn't said anything since Friday about that.

[00:00:42]>> I like Rob Olafan's reaction. It's incredibly important at any point to acknowledge that there are people that are struggling and that as an MP, as a government, you are doing what you can to try to help them. I I don't think we should see anybody, any members of parliament be dismissive. I'm not saying that that's what was done by the other MP but I think he was a little bit like I'm just going to go inside and you know nothing nothing to panic about which to be to be fair it's a technical recession absolutely I think there's debate on whether it's a recession fits the definition that I know of technical recession and I believe that yes the prime minister should speak to it I don't know if it had to be on Friday night I don't think it's a a national emergency that you need to to go on air and and sort of do it within an hour but I definitely think we're going to hear from him whether it be this week or maybe even tonight. Frankly, I I believe he might be taking the podium. So, with that, he definitely has to reassure people that he has a plan, that he's aware that uh we have a technical recession, that we have as a country uh the the impetus to to act and get some big stuff done. And we've talked about this on the panel several times. His government will ultimately be judged, I think, on their ability to execute on a lot of things that Canadians want right now. I I believe that's most likely why they won the election because they spoke about doing some big things that are going to help the economy and then as Robant said trickle down and help people ensuring the economy is making their lives better.

[00:02:03]>> Lisa, does this data um mean something politically?

[00:02:09]>> Yes, in a roundabout way. What it means something politically is it allows the opposition to basically hammer on the government on two things. Number one, what's your plan to make sure that Canadians are feeling better? And I agree very much with Brian. Rob Alphant definitely nailed the response that was needed. Don't dismiss the fact that they may be a technical recession. Talk about what your people are feeling. Right?

[00:02:34]That's the most important part is to show empathy and that's where it could get dangerous for this government. If you don't show empathy to an economic situation that's problematic, then you are saying that you don't care. The second part of it though, which is interesting, is Mr. Carney really hasn't been that forthcoming coming out and talking to the press about stuff like this. He doesn't necessarily answer a lot of questions on the topic. If there are, there are control and they're kind of feeding into this notion that he's not available and he's not willing to communicate with you Canadians. And those would be the two ways in which the opposition will utilize this information from Stats Canada. But like if you listen to the bank econom economists across the country, a technical recession is what it is. They're looking to see what's going to happen in the future.

[00:03:21]>> Yeah. I'm not sure at this juncture, Tom, it's the Rword that is the main inflection point politically, but if you have 0.1% growth or.1% contraction, either way, your economy has flatlined, which I do feel like becomes a political issue.

[00:03:37]>> It's a huge political issue. And I love the way the word technical crab walked its way sideways and attached itself to the word recession because I don't know about you guys, but I'm trying to find any textbook that gives a definition of a technical recession. Yes, officer.

[00:03:54]Technically, I was speeding, but it was only a few miles an hour above the speed limit. A recession is a recession is a recession. Two consecutive quarters negative growth recession, not a technical recession. So PV is right to go hard on this. I'm not sure he serves his own purposes though, the way he does it. Sometimes his tone, this is the third time he's hit this thing since Friday, which shows that it is a very good target for the the official opposition. But the way Puadev does it, the way he brings it forward, it becomes the attack immediately. Not all this stuff has to be done at the same tone, same level. Now, if you're in baseball, then the only pitch that you have is a hard ball to the head. Yeah, the batter just steps back and lets the thing go.

[00:04:38]Then maybe that's why Carney is so far ahead of him in the accumulated polls that we saw the references to over the weekend. So, being that being as it may, it is a serious problem for Canadians and we all agree Robant nailed it. He explained why it was important to the people in Canada in his writing in particular, but across the country, people are suffering and they need an answer other than let's duck and wait for this thing to pass.

[00:05:01]Mhm.

[00:05:02]>> Do you think the prime minister needs to say something about this data, Rob?

[00:05:09]>> Yeah, I think he does. I think Tom and Lisa are bang on in that it this is a mana from heaven for the opposition.

[00:05:16]Polyv has to risk not looking too gleeful about it, but I think he is perfectly uh wise to to to be attacking Carney. Remember Mark Carney was elected last year uh and the whole mantra was no uh no crisis no carney. Well, we have a crisis. So what is he going to do about that crisis? A recession is a recession is a recession. I uh Rob Alifon is a has a writing here in Toronto Don Valley West that is uh some of the richest people in the city and some of the poorest people in the city live in this riding. Uh and so he's going to see the disparity in his riding. I walk the streets of the city on my way to work.

[00:05:53]Uh and I walk by the Fort York Food Bank Vashy on College Street in downtown Toronto in uh Danielle Martin's riding actually Toronto Center Rosedale and there are lineups a city block long of people lining up for free groceries. Uh this is there are tough some tough times on the streets of of Canada, not just in Ontario. And I think it's important that that that people in in in Car's government and Carney himself recognize that. And yes, stats can says it's it's a recession. Uh, and I think that puts that that that underscores the state of where things are for a lot of Canadians.

[00:06:29]I think >> it it also reminds me of like a year ago, maybe more, Brian, when our panel was together and we constantly were remarking on the specificity with which the prime minister was making promises.

[00:06:42]like you know it's not like in this case the opposition invented the promise of the big the fastest growing economy in the G7 like it it is now in hindsight interesting that that that promise was made even as it was then when when given the headwinds that we were facing the chances of that at the time I think objectively could have been said to be you know slim to none.

[00:07:02]>> Yeah. Yes. So, look, there's other former politicians on this panel, so they'll correct me if I'm wrong, but I think a lot of former politicians will look to some that are there for the first time. And although he certainly was in the periphery of politics, uh, Prime Minister Carney just started out not too long ago. And making those grandiose promises very specific may work very well for some organizations because it has the team go towards a goal. But in government, it can maybe do the same thing. But at the same time, it puts expectations so high. You lose control of the message. You can't temper things. You can't like today maybe not be able to explain as to why, yeah, this is where we are now, but we still have a plan. And that still is our goal. People are just going to say, as my colleagues were mentioning, it's a recession.

[00:07:46]That's all new all Canadians need to know. So to me, it definitely is an interesting case where somebody that hadn't been in politics very long has really put the goalposts quite far and and very transparently. You got to give them credit for that. Made the specific goals known and and politically that can be very good. Um if you meet them, it can be very difficult if you don't.

[00:08:07]>> Yeah, it felt like when the promises were being made, Canadians were very receptive, Lisa, because it's refreshing to hear that level of ambition expressed. And it was in particular in this case. a year later and and not to say anyone expected it to materialize overnight, but a year later, it's very easy then for the opposition to say, "Hey, this is exactly what you said and it's not coming anywhere close."

[00:08:28]>> So true. And I think the other danger is that he gave Canadians hope in a kind of a hopeless kind of time for us dealing with with the United States. You know, I think the the route that Pierre Paul has taken in talking about how he's hiding from you, meaning the prime minister is hiding from you. The the Liberal Party has to be very careful about this because if you recall, Tom, you and I were in the same election. Man, we went to town on Michael. He didn't come back for you. That stuck and he could never ever shake it. And if you allow this narrative to grow, that the prime minister isn't here for you, he's not listening to you, he's doing other things, that's going to be hard to shake. So don't let this roll too far is what I would be advising the Liberal Party of Canada. Not that they take my advice, but nonetheless, it's definitely something that you do not want to take hold of because Pierre Polyv is very good at hammering a point over and over and over again.

[00:09:26]>> What? Okay, I'm going to take a quick commercial