BREAKING: TRUMP'S NEW IRAN DEAL LIKELY TO FAIL - w/ Fmr. CIA Larry Johnson

追加: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]is Lindsey Graham. I'm like, the tweet says the following.

[00:00:04]>> A senator should focus on the people of their state, not the entire world. These are the countries South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham posted about this month.

[00:00:11]Iran, Saudi, Qatar, Pakistan, Israel, Lebanon, Iraq, Cuba, Russia, China, United Arab Emirates. This is so this says it all.

[00:00:18]>> Yeah, but he remember Lindsay Lindsay is just responding to his donors, you know.

[00:00:23]He's going where the money is.

[00:00:26]>> That's what happens. I should probably I should add a comment. That's what happens when a senator responds to their donors and not their people.

[00:00:32]>> Yeah, >> that's a good point. Well, Larry, it's Tim, pleasure to have you as always.

[00:00:37]Thank you for for making the time this weekend. Um, yesterday was a crazy day. We had the ornik launched at Ukraine. We had the shooting at the White House, but all eyes are on Iran. The day started very positively. Last night was also very positive. And um, yeah, it looked like Trump was posting about a deal. were getting reports from mainly western media, Israeli media, less so from Iranian media, but also indications from Iran that a deal is near. So everything was looking good and then you know Trump was even yesterday saying that'll be signed by today. Small few small details just very bizarre.

[00:01:10]>> And then today obviously things started going um in the opposite direction. We had Tasnim said a few hours ago theou between Iran and when I say deal as you know I meanou. So that's we're getting a one pager.

[00:01:25]>> H Iran the Tim says the MOU between Iran and America may be cancelled and it seems the the two main sticking points.

[00:01:33]Initially they were reported to be the unfreezing of assets and the war in Lebanon. Now that was a few hours ago.

[00:01:40]Since then I've heard more about the unfreezing of assets and less about the war in Lebanon, which makes sense to me because that one seems harder to to solve. Um an informed source told Tasn that Iran holds no optimism um conducting all exchange to the media.

[00:01:56]That's not the issue. Okay. So they TAN news put out another report saying um the claims of American officials that Iran would not receive any sanctions relief until it begins transferring it rich uranium are false. The unfreezing of assets is one of the red lines from the beginning of the deal. So we see um you know a pretty tricky predicament we're in right now. Um so yeah what do you we haven't spoken for a few days.

[00:02:22]What do you make of these developments?

[00:02:24]>> Well let's first understand you you know why which assets were frozen why those were frozen in the first place?

[00:02:30]>> Iranian assets.

[00:02:32]>> Yeah.

[00:02:34]>> What where did those Iranian assets come from?

[00:02:38]Did it was it just in a bank account the Iranians had sitting around doing nothing? Or was it the fact that Iran prepaid the United States while the Shaw was still in power for a number of weapon systems, F4s, F-16s.

[00:02:54]>> So they've they paid for weapons that were never delivered. But so it's just like you know you preparing prepaid for a Lamborghini and I never deliver it to you and then the money that you prepaid I keep. Would you be okay with that?

[00:03:12]>> No. So that's why that that's what why uh that's one of the main sources of assets. The other source of the assets was uh o oil money that so Iran when it was still even under the ayatollah was still participating in the petro dollar system. So those assets too were frozen.

[00:03:34]So Iran's been through a number of the promises going back to JCPOA that oh the as a well trust us we'll get those unfrozen never did. So that's why it's a red line. uh the United States is going to have to unfreeze assets. Not eventually, not waiting to see how Iran complies upfront.

[00:03:56]Now, uh there have been some reports that Iran was would be willing to take half up front and then on the condition, you know, I think that'd be crazy, but you know, I'm not on the Iranian negotiating team. Um the other one is the lifting of sanctions, not some point down the road. Again, Iran's been, you know, they've been there, done that, they got the t-shirt. JCPOA, they signed on. They complied. It was only when Trump tore up the JCPOA agreement that Iran said, "Okay, we're going to start enriching uranium and just to try to get you back to the table." That didn't work. But, uh, the, uh, never were the sanction, in fact, the sanctions were toughened. So, that's again another red line. Those two things have to happen.

[00:04:44]or there's not going to be a deal.

[00:04:45]Period. Uh the third is the fighting's got to stop in Lebanon and in Israel. Uh the Israelis have to pull back. Uh I don't think Israel will do that. And I don't I don't see Iran walking around say, "Oh, never mind. That's too difficult." No, that I mean that's that's at the that's at the center of this entire conflict going back uh 46 years. Uh so uh then you know the last issue is the straight of Hamoose. Now, Iran's willing to, you know, they've already opened it for those countries that are willing to abide by the PGSA, you know, the Persian Gulf Strait Authority that Iran has put in place.

[00:05:24]You know, got to learn a new acronym.

[00:05:28]>> Yeah. If you're not learning a new acronym every show, dude, you're not doing your job. So, we learn a new acronym. And, uh, you know, again, Ron's not going to back off of that. Uh as far as uh the store of of enriched uranium uh there is a possibility that they might allow Pakistan to take possession of it. That that's a possibility. But remember the central country in all of this behind the scenes is Pakistan.

[00:05:59]And what happened to Pakistan in the last 24 hours?

[00:06:06]>> The Beluchis bombed a train and killed a hundred people.

[00:06:12]Guess who has a historical intelligence relationship with the Beluchis?

[00:06:20]Give you one guess. Begins with an I.

[00:06:25]Israel.

[00:06:27]Israel has been providing funding. In fact, there was a big scandal several years ago called with the Jenalins, the Jandalans, I guess it is, uh where Mossad agents went out and presented themselves as US intelligence officers providing paid sources in the Baluchi.

[00:06:47]It's and claimed that they were acting on behalf of the United States when in fact it was Israeli agents, but they were getting the Beluchis to carry out terrorist attacks inside Iran. So this is an old uh habit. So I I'm willing to bet you that this terrorist attack was set up as a message to the Pakistanis to back the hell off that Israel back that up.

[00:07:15]>> I saw the explosion >> killed 100 people.

[00:07:19]>> Yeah. I I dismissed it not in an inhumane way. I dismissed it as an accident. I thought it was an accident.

[00:07:25]I didn't even read the I just saw the headline and that's it.

[00:07:28]>> This was a bombing. This was not an accident. This was a deliberate terrorist attack carried out by a terrorist group. See, I had their name here before. What they're claiming uh let's see uh yeah the BL the Baluchistan Liberation Army. Now they've been you know seeking independence from Pakistan central government oh for years. But uh so they say that this attack killed at least 24 people. I heard a hundred uh and the train was the train was carrying soldiers. But see the other thing that's going on behind here is Pakistan is the one who is heading up at the direction of China the negotiations between the United States and Iran and also with the Saudis. Um if uh you know Pakistan is uniquely positioned, it for example could give the Saudis as part of their security agreement a nuclear umbrella because Pakistan can say anybody attacks you, we got your back. We got nukes.

[00:08:36]So Pakistan uh I believe is you know they're uh what I'm hearing is they're they're fairly optimistic that they might get at least they've got the they've got all the uh ingredients for an agreement there. The problem is Washington and Israel and as soon as the word started leaking out that there was uh the possibility of an agreement then what happened? Oh boy, Ted Cruz went on the offensive. Lindsey Graham went on the offensive. Miriam Adlesen's making calls. Uh BB Netanyahu's got his hair on fire. Uh so so the pressure is real and significant. And then then and in the aftermath of that then the United States starts changing its uh what what's saying in public and or toughening its demands. You know Iran's not going to cave into on those demands. This is this is not you know this is not like negotiating over the price of a car where you know each side is going to have to make some concessions. Iran is not going to make concessions with respect to uh frozen assets and sanctions and its control of the strait of Hermus.

[00:09:53]So then the big question is um so I've been seeing oh you said you've you've seen my interview with with the other gentlemen earlier so you would would have heard me say I think the two sticking points that I think both sides need to concede on the unfreezing of the assets which you've made a very important point is that there's a lot of pressure on Trump not to take the deal and that's why I said that if Trump if Trump managed to make a deal that's going to be bad for the US either way it's just a matter of how bad but if he does sign a deal um despite all that pressure. I would give him credit, not for the war, obviously it's a stupid war, but just for being able to make a deal with all the pressure around them to try to sabotage it.

[00:10:29]>> Sure. There's a concession on the American side for the unfreezing of assets. And there's a concession on the Iranian side for not charging a fee at the straight home, which the Americans are saying the deal does not include Iran charging. No, >> Iran Iran's not going to do that. Iran Iran, that's what I think charge a fee.

[00:10:45]you know, they they they want a fee to cover all the damage that has been done by the first Israeli US bombing or the second combined USIsraeli bombing of Iran, not to mention the first attack that took place a year ago in June.

[00:11:00]>> So again, Iran Iran's not backing off of that. Now, um, you know, possibly they could come out and they say, "Okay, we're going to unfreeze all your assets and that'll that'll give you, uh, the quote the reparations." But, but still, Iran said, "Wait, we're paying out of our own pocket. We didn't do this to us. You did this to us."

[00:11:23]And you know, in the same way, we've seen how the Russians took very very seriously the Ukrainian attack that killed those 21 school girls, largely school girls, a few male male students, but mostly girls. And man, they they pounded Kev uh yesterday significantly.

[00:11:44]And Iran has not forgotten the 168 Manab girls.

[00:11:50]I mean, that's, you know, they're not going to just let that go.

[00:11:54]They haven't forgotten that. And so, you know, the United States has never felt that pain. Iran has. So, I I I just see Iran is, you know, Iran's taking a very principled stand. There are so many lies that are consistently told, and we we've talked about these before. Uh, and I just I just did a search. Yeah. I used I used two different uh engines Grock and Claude you know anthropic both came up with the same answers. Give me the top 10 terrorist groups since 2000 both in terms of attacks and fatalities and casualties.

[00:12:38]80% of them are Sunni extremist groups that have ties to the uh the Saudis and to the Gulf Arabs. Hands down. Uh Hamas shows up simply because they're counting October 7th, 2023 as a terrorist attack.

[00:12:56]I maintain that was not a terrorist attack. That was a that was a raid, a military raid. It was targeted principally at military personnel and militias. Yes, there were civilians and and that qualifies as terrorism. But in terms of did Hamas kill the vast majority of the civilians? I don't know because you got to look at what Israel did and with its uh Apache helicopters blowing cars up willy-nilly that were fleeing that rave. And there's significant evidence implicating Israel in the deaths of many of those civilians. So, it's just not a simple black and white. Oh, Hamas is terrible.

[00:13:35]Um I I watched I watched a monk debate uh last um Wednesday that featured Mike Pompeo and Victoria Nuland on one side, John Mirshimer and Steven Walt on the other side. And they were debating the the the it was basically going back to John Adams speech about we we do not go out to seek monsters to destroy.

[00:14:02]And um the you know the the entire premise of that question is false in the sense that monsters are imaginary creations like Frankenstein a monster Dracula a monster but they're they're they're imaginary and uh in the course of that Mike Pompeo made the claim that you know Hezbollah had killed thousands thousands of Israelis. So I looked it up.

[00:14:31]Since 1982 when Hezbollah came into existence, Hezbollah has been responsible for the death of 872 Israelis.

[00:14:42]Think about that. 800 over over 44 years, and you can look it up yourself.

[00:14:50]44 years, 872 Israelis.

[00:14:54]How many Palestinians have the Israelis killed?

[00:14:58]close. They they go conservatively with the 92,000 and that includes the 73,000 that the Israeli Defense Forces admitted to, but that number is probably much greater.

[00:15:10]But what you're looking at is for every dead Israeli over the course of the last 42 years, you've had a 100 dead Palestinians.

[00:15:19]You tell me who the monster is.

[00:15:28]So, I want to I want to read out a quick report that came while you're speaking before I go back to my questions. So, I haven't read it yet. According to a report from CNN, and we've been seeing these all days, it's like really difficult to understand which ones are intentional leaks as part of the information warfare versus um genuine leaks. Um, Tus did report something interesting earlier today. They said um um Iranian officials got um got told by American officials not to listen to what Trump says on Truth Social because that's all for the media and for the for the people in the US. So more part of a narrative and not actually part of a deal. So they told him to just ignore what Trump posts about. According to Dusty News, the um so the report that just came in now from CNN, a senior Trump administration official claimed that the deal would commit Iran to giving up its highlyenriched uranium, which according to most sources, the MOU has nothing to do commit. Okay, that could be a commitment, which Trump refers to as nuclear dust with the official summarizing the approach as no dust, no dollars, adding that this is the trust but verify on steroids. An Iranian source told CNN that the thread is already open, but the that the coordination with Iranian authorities is required to ensure safe transit while also stressing that the most important thing for us is that the war must end for good in the whole Middle East.

[00:16:46]They've really quadrupling down on Lebanon. They're not budging an inch on Lebanon. Trump separately told Netanyahu he supports Israel's right to maintain freedom of action against threats on all fronts, including Lebanon, according to an Israeli official. So, that says it all. Three different sources, three different stories in that one report.

[00:17:05]The US is saying we're not going to um unfreeze anything until you get the uranium. Iran is saying we control the shadow of Homos and the war needs to end everywhere. And another Israeli source is saying Trump says oh Israel could keep fighting in Lebanon. It is so difficult to reach a deal. It's like all sides are pulling in all these different directions. You start to wonder how much decision-making powers the the president really has and the American president really has when all these like when I decide something in business when I decide something everyone can give me an opinion and I make a decision and everyone goes with it. It's how businesses operate. Now I would expect the same thing here.

[00:17:41]>> Everyone gives their opinion to Trump whether it's Netanyahu his senators it's the list goes on. They all give an opinion to Trump and then Trump makes a decision. Everyone goes with that decision. Now, I understand Israel has agency, but Trump could easily strongarm Netanyahu. Trump is more popular than Netanyahu in Israel. Um, so if push comes to shove, Netanyahu needs Trump more than Trump needs Netanyahu. That's my my my way of looking at it. So, I don't get why Trump just doesn't crack the whip and just make a deal or just walk away and stop this uh charade.

[00:18:12]>> I don't think he can walk away anymore.

[00:18:13]I don't think he can walk away because he keeps threatening he will strike if there's no deal. So, he's in a corner. I can start by giving you 250 million reasons. Uh the money amount of money that Miriam Adlesen gave to Donald Trump. Um then you've got the political pressure the likes of Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz. Uh in fact u you know a significant number of his Republican donor base uh would be just furious if he makes any concessions to Iran. And again, it's all predicated on the lie pro that was spread that, you know, Iran is this uh fanatical regime you responding to the leading terrorist threat in the world, which it's not.

[00:18:55]It's absolutely not. The the facts, particularly over the last 26 years. In fact, the only one that has been sponsoring helping sponsor radical Islamic terrorism is the United States itself.

[00:19:09]And when the Israelis want to complain about Hamas and oh look at what Hamas has done to us. You guys funded them, you know, you you funded Hamas for the very purpose of trying to blow up and destroy a peace process. So nobody, you know, neither Washington nor Tel Aviv accept any responsibility whatsoever for all the death and mayhem that they've caused. So I you know what what has happened I guess behind the scenes what Pakistan is working on is uh is it's solidifying its relationship with the Saudis. The Saudis now have before the Saudis felt they didn't have any protection. They had to rely upon the United States. They now no longer have to do that. But in the course of that, Pakistan's also brokering a permanent security arrangement between Iran and Saudi Arabia so that the Saudis don't have to fear. You know, Iran has Iran has never been in the business of exporting this Islamic revolution. Uh it has been it's true. It has absolutely provided support to Hezbollah and to Hamas over the years, but Iranian support's not the critical ingredient in that. I'd venture to say I think Israel provided more money, billions of dollars to Hamas than Iran did for starters, but uh you know this ultimately getting the Palestinian people a homeland and and self-determination.

[00:20:42]You know that that's not subversive.

[00:20:46]That's humanitarian. And Israel in the process is and I think uh Brendan uh Brendan Wikert Brendan Wikert made this point with you earlier pointing out that you know Israel has been its own worst enemy diplomatically it has it's managed to alienate most of the most of the Middle East and now at least Turkey and Egypt uh they are more open listening to uh the kind of diplomatic solution that Pakistan is proposing and again Pakistan is proposing it with the full weight of the Chinese and the Russians behind them. So this is, you know, Russia and China were dead serious about trying to create a new security architecture in the Persian Gulf, one that's not dependent upon US flexing military muscle there. Now if if that you know if Saudis and Qataris hold firm the United States will you know if if it tries to restart military attacks on Iran it's going to face a real uh some real obstacles.

[00:21:53]>> Iran Iran made a threat drop site news reported on this. Um Iran said it will consider any attack on its territory a resumption of the third Gulf War and would target Israel and the GCC countries. any attack on his territory.

[00:22:06]So that kind of crosses out the idea because there was a theory coming out that the US may ask Israel to strike Iran and the US may not strike Iran. So Iran when it retaliates only focuses on Israel, not strike the Gulf. But Iran's making it clear any strike will drag everyone into it. A source close to the IRGC said Iran's retaliation would result in the oil and gas infrastructure of the GCC countries coming under attack and the Houthis closing the Babel Mendum straight blocking the Red Sea. So Iran is drawing a very red line, very big red line against any military action.

[00:22:35]>> Well, understand that Israel cannot attack Iran without US support. It needs it needs the air refueling capabilities at a minimum to to launch any kind of significant attack with the US supplied F-35 uh jets. They they have to be refueled before they could even get within firing range of Iran, you know, and I'm assuming they launch something like tomahawks or jasms because they're not going to fly over Iranian territory and get shot down. They're going to they're going to do a standoff again.

[00:23:13]They need to be refueled at least two times inbound and they would probably and they're going to need to be refueled at least two times trying to get back to home base. So that air refueling capability is huge and and that can't be underestimated.

[00:23:28]>> I think didn't they get refuel refueling tankers that are being delivered now? I think I read it somewhere that they're finally getting refueling tankers and some Gulf countries are not happy about it. Not operational yet. So probably still need the Americans now cuz there's talks about how they were able to strike Qatar >> because they shouldn't have the capacity to strike Qatar unless they use a refueling tanker or they alter the fighter jets. Legally they can't make any alterations to the fighter jet. No country has I've heard, you might know more than this about than I do, but I've heard that the Israelis are the only ones that were that altered their fighter jets despite the Americans barring any clients of those fighter jets to to make any alterations.

[00:24:04]>> Well, they could, but you know, they could they could attach additional fuel tanks, but >> yeah, >> you know, that's usually for fing those jets from one point to another. That's not carrying a combat load. So the they when they're carrying a combat load their their effective distance is about 550 miles nautical miles >> and just look at the just look at the map from you know pick your spot in Israel to get to say Qur I think that's about 800 miles. So, you know, right off the bat, they they're going to need refueling. And then even when they get to Qatar, they need to be refueled again because even if they launch, let's say they just launch from, you know, the Persian Gulf side of Qatar towards Iran.

[00:24:47]Uh if they use the JASM, those those have a range of about 500 miles. Again, Iran is a massive country.

[00:24:55]So, you know, I don't care how many jets. Israel does not have the size of an air force of such a size as to blanket uh blanket Iran. They don't. And as soon as as soon as if if bombs start falling on Iran, the Iranians aren't going to waste a minute. They're they're locked and loaded. And so they they will pull the trigger and then the war would be back on in full, you know, uh in full horror. So this is you know again Iran has played this very cool you know they're willing to talk they're willing to negotiate but they're not willing to surrender.

[00:25:38]>> Yeah Brendan Brendan Wart you said you mentioned the interview he said something interesting he said Mario I wrote a whole book in my in that book I make assumptions that Iran just a bunch of fanatics that if they get their hands on a nuclear weapon they'll cause significant harm. And he's like Mario one thing I learned from this war is they're a lot more pragmatic than I thought. Not sure if you remember you heard that segment which was interesting to see how his perspective of Iran has changed over the years and it seems a lot of people have seen a different side of Iran in this war. Again, you know, there's a lot of criticism that could be targeted at various things that they've done in terms of strategies, but as a whole from a military perspective, it was a pragmatic escalation ladder, a tit fortat response. Um, and the whole negotiations process, they have their stats and they've been pretty u consistent with it throughout. If anything, I'm trying to be balance here, but if anything on the on Trump's side, he's the one that's making those outlandish claims about wiping out wiping out a civilization, talking about a big blow. These this rhetoric is not coming out of Iran. Um, and that's coming from someone, as you know me, I'm very critical of the Iranian government.

[00:26:41]Um but still that that their their behavior so far I think what they're asking for why wouldn't they ask for this? They've gone through decades of sanctions. Now what do you think um do you think the Iranians would accept?

[00:26:55]So that's I think they would if if the US agrees to unfreeze a bunch of assets right now before any without any preconditions. Do you think Iran would not charge a fee for the straight in the trade of hummus? Cuz they could do it later. They can say, "All right, we're not going to charge one. They can change their mind in 6 months." But that seems like a a possible middle ground for both sides to be able to meet and get some sort ofou signed. Just the two concessions, we stopped the war everywhere. I think that should be n that should be such an easy one to achieve in my view. A lot of people say that's going to be impossible. Karen, I spoke to Karen. She's like, "Mary, no way Trump can stop Netanyahu in Lebanon." Um but the one I think they can both agree on is the unfreezing of assets and the um Iran not charging at all.

[00:27:40]>> Yeah. I don't see Iran backing often charging the toll at all.

[00:27:43]>> It's going to be hard.

[00:27:44]>> You know, in the same way, you know, they charge Yeah. people say, well, the Suez Canal, that's man-made, so they can charge on that. Panama Canal mad. They can charge on that.

[00:27:54]>> Well, you know, this is this is still Iranian territorial waters at least 12 miles out.

[00:28:00]There's traits in Turkey, the Vosus and the other one the Dardell Danish Danish traits that much charges a few.

[00:28:08]>> So they could all they could all charge and it's just like you know it's right of passage in use. Now, um the we fortunately we saw Admiral Codddle the other day, his last name C A U DL E, and he admitted, you know, we we militarily can't send ships in that'll blast open the Straight of Hormuz. And you know, we've talked about this before because the multi-layered defense system that Iran has in place extends well into uh the interior of Iran. It leaves them in a place where they can fire short-range ballistic missiles and drones at any ship that dares to go through without permission.

[00:28:51]And so all of this gets back to the question of insurance. Countries, no insurance company is going to insure a ship unless they've got 100% guarantee that there's not going to be some drone fired at them because then all of a sudden that insurance company's on the hook. It's too risky and these guys are riskaverse. So, and Ron Ron said, "Hey, we've got a reasonable solution. Pay a fee, you pass. We're not the ones shooting at you."

[00:29:21]>> Um, then why why does Trump even need a deal? Because if if if the Iranians are not going to to concede on the fear of hummus, they're not going to concede on the enriched uranium now. They want to discuss it later. So, why does Trump even need to unfreeze assets? Cuz if Trump just walks away, the Iranians are going to attack first. Um, so then the how's the deal even on the table? Why is Trump talking about a deal? There must be some concession from Iran. Otherwise, Trump just walks away.

[00:29:53]>> It's it's loss of face. you know, it's that uh Chinese thing, even though they're not Chinese, but you know, as Trump has repeatedly said, he oh, he's obliterated, completely defeated, destroyed. The Iranian air force, Iranian Navy, the Iranian military, Iranian missiles is all destroyed. We've won. And it So, and you make the logical question, well, if that's the case, just declare victory and go home.

[00:30:22]But that's not the case because Iran is still intact. Their ballistic missile capabilities uh they haven't replaced everything that they used up in the first 5 weeks, but they have a they had a lot more in store than Western intelligence uh calculated. You know, I'd said that from the beginning, just that when you've got underground missile cities, when you got underground factories, unless you've got a human source directly in there telling you exactly how much they're producing, you don't know because you can't see through through the rock. Um and and Iran has been very confident, plus the reports that the Chinese have now supplied them with what are called CM302s, which are these anti-ship missiles, uh super they're supersonic, and they have a they have the range to reach out and hit US ships that are 200 miles offshore, and Iran in the past hasn't used those, but now they've got them supposedly.

[00:31:25]Well, um, this is one of your favorite questions that I always ask you. I know what your answer is. I think everyone knows what your answer is, but I'm going to ask you anyway because that's a good way to share the news. Then, how do you explain the news that just came in now?

[00:31:35]The markets have opened. Oil prices fell to their lowest levels in two weeks. Um, amid optimism that the US runs moving closer to a deal. Brent crude dropped 5% 4.5% to $98 per barrel and uh, West Texas Intermediate crude fell 4.7% to $92 per barrel. How do you explain that, Larry?

[00:31:55]>> That's happened 11 times before now.

[00:31:58]It's called it's called deja vu all over again to quote Yogi Barrow. Uh you know this it's market manipulation and there are insiders around Trump that are making boatloads of money. It is uh you know this is the fact that people keep getting surprised by this just amazes me. You know, I I look, I grew up in the era when Char Charlie Brown and Lucy first came on television. Charlie Brown was this cartoon character, you know, chubby, nice little kid, and he all his dream was to kick the football. And Lucy would say, "Hey, Charlie, come kick the football." Charlie go running up and she'd pull the football away as he took a swing at it, go up in the air, fell on his butt. Did that over and over and over. That That's where we are at. We're This is This is a Charlie Brown football moment. And the fact the fact that these markets and this is why you know these markets are crooked. They are not you know I I presume when you went to college you got an introduction to introduction to economics course probably.

[00:33:06]>> I did I did Yeah. I did banking and finance. So yeah.

[00:33:09]>> Okay. And so what did they tell you about decreased supply, steady or increased demand? What happens to prices in that case? Do they go down or do they go up?

[00:33:22]>> I think I know the answer to that one.

[00:33:24]>> They go up, right? So now let's look back at the co start of the COVID crisis when there wasn't an actual decrease in the supply of oil. I mean, Persian Gulf was still putting out the same amount that it did, you know, before CO. Yet, the price of oil spiked up to 150 a barrel.

[00:33:44]Now, we're at a situation where real world 20% of the world's supply of oil has been cut off. It's reduced. And it's not like there are now a bunch of tankers sitting out there on the high seas loaded to the gills with oil just writing to unload. No, they've already unloaded. So we're now at a 20% deficit and the price is going down.

[00:34:09]That is irrational.

[00:34:11]So that that shows clear market manipulation. These people are being and uh the the derivative market is making making billions off of this >> and it's just it's it's it's crooked gambling. That's all it is.

[00:34:30]>> Yeah. I um I think the markets are being manipulated. Um I think that an investigation should be launched. We already know there is an investigation.

[00:34:40]I think we already know that some certain transactions are being investigated like the big short on oil before the ceasefire was announced.

[00:34:46]>> Right.

[00:34:46]>> Um I think also someone was arrested when it comes to the Maduro raid that knew about the Maduro raid and made a polymarket bet. One of the >> Yeah. But he's he's a low-level soldier.

[00:34:56]That's okay. Go after them because he doesn't he doesn't have political clout.

[00:35:00]He's not wellconed. He's not part of the Trump family. So, hell, punish him. Make an example of him. But the ones who are actually making the money, hey, pat him on the back and say there's more.

[00:35:11]There's more where that came from.

[00:35:14]So I um the reason I I still listen to the markets is I think cuz once you know something's being manipulated, you know, so for example, if we know that Trump is always going to post something positive wanting to calm the markets, the markets start to getting used to it and have less and less impact. What happens with investors with big money? I'm talking about proper investors. They'll know they're like, "All right, a peace deal.

[00:35:36]We know Trump is lying cuz he lied 10 times already. We're we're not going to trust this one." and okay, the price is going down because everyone thinks there's a peace deal. We're going to buy up oil because we know he's been they're lying again because we've seen it happen many times. So, the strategy of manipulation kind of loses its impact once people know there's manipulation going on.

[00:35:53]>> Right. Right.

[00:35:53]>> That's why I think cuz when when there was a few days ago the price um Trump made a very positive post about a week ago, price of oil barely budged because people got used to it. So, this one is a pretty big shift. So then my question would be is 5% is not a massive shift but it's still pretty significant. So then the question obviously they could be manipulated again. Um and they have been many times. The question is all right so how would a deal look like for Trump not to walk away? Um the qu why I would think the Iranians can concede.

[00:36:23]I'd be it'd be hard to believe them conceding on the nuke on the toll of the stra unless they get a big concession from the US because they've made it they have a website. They have a Twitter account. They have a name and they've said it to their to to the Iranian people. So it's going to be a bad look for them domestically to just walk away from that position and they don't need to walk away from it unless there's a big concession. So then what would a deal look like and why would Iran conceded anything? The only argument one can make is maybe their their economy is suffering. We don't know how much. Some are saying the economy is about to collapse which obviously such nonsense.

[00:36:59]>> Exactly. They're over overstating it.

[00:37:01]But obviously there's still pain there.

[00:37:03]So the Iranians still want to see they want to go back to business as usual. So maybe for the sake of that they accept some concession. Maybe something just diplomatic. Maybe a promise about their enriched uranium but they don't need to take action now. Maybe maybe sharing the fear that's a good idea. Professor Iani said I discussed that with him yesterday. Maybe splitting the fear of the straight of Hamuz Larry with Gulf countries because that's got operation.

[00:37:27]They face damage as well and that begins the kind of the mending of the relationship between the Gulf and Iran.

[00:37:32]So that could be one solution.

[00:37:35]>> Well, they're splitting it already with Oman. So they they've cut a deal with Oman. Aman is going to share in the fees that are being collected. So that's number one. Um number two, uh business go back to business as usual. Business as usual was before was complete sanctions.

[00:37:55]>> Now business as usual as in opening of the straits.

[00:37:58]>> Yeah. But even business as usual with the opening of the strait since the straits have been closed, Iran's made more money off of the oil that's gone out because it's not what the future market says. This is not what they say with the price of Brent or uh the West Texas Intermediate is the the key is what are people in Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Japan, what are they paying for the oil that's coming off ship? My understanding is that's closer to 150, $160 a barrel or higher that is not 90. So this the you know what we're looking at on these future markets is a future bet about oh this is what it'll be in a month or two but the actual actual fees what people are actually paying is much higher and so those the the impact of that higher price the inflationary effect is spreading throughout these economies particularly in Asia it'll it's going to it's it's hitting Europe this week really uh full time and that it's going to be growing it's not going to be reducing So, um, now if if there was a firm guarantee that the war in Lebanon and against the Palestinians would stop and, you know, if if if Trump said, "Okay, we're going to make them stop," which I I I don't see that happening, but this is for the sake of argument that if that happened, then I could see Iran might be willing to make some additional concessions if they could get they could get a rockolid guarantee that that war is going to top and the introduction of some genuine peacekeepers in there to keep the Israelis back from killing and and and starving the Palestinians.

[00:39:40]But, you know, that's so far that's not going to happen because this extreme rightwing that dominates Israel, they're still the majority power, the majority of voters.

[00:39:52]>> They're not they're not the minority that they once were. So, um, you know, you've got to this deal is going to have to make sense for Iran, not just for temporary relief, because remember the they're getting they're getting transport via rail from China. They got seven land routes from Pakistan that are coming in. They've got products coming in from Russia via the Caspian Sea.

[00:40:16]They're they're actually Iran's doing better now economically than they were three months ago.

[00:40:24]during the war or before the war?

[00:40:27]>> Before the war?

[00:40:30]>> I I think that depends on how many of the ships are going through because I I just get different reports. I don't know.

[00:40:35]>> Well, no, it's not so much again. It's not just the ships. They go back and look. I They were not getting the volume of trade via the Caspian, via the railroad with China, via the roads with Pakistan. They were not getting that volume 3 months ago. They are now.

[00:40:54]>> Oh, so the oil exports be replacing the trader homes, you mean?

[00:40:59]>> Yeah. So, but the oil exports still they they've not been shut down despite what the west says.

[00:41:04]>> No, ships are still getting through. I don't know how many, but ships are still getting through.

[00:41:07]>> Yeah. So, they're still getting through and and the money that's coming in off those ships much higher. And you know, so Iran's taking the payment in yuan, not dollars. So, the United States, we're going to sanction you with our dollars. Fine. We're not we're not selling oil in dollars. We're selling oil in yuan. And we got a relationship with China that China's now stepped up in a way that it had not stepped up to a year ago.

[00:41:35]Um you you brought up Israel.

[00:41:38]So I I mentioned to you earlier that I think Trump has more influence over Netanyahu than the other way around. A report did come in from channel 14 actually saying that apparently Netanyahu himself. So that's a report from channel 13. Netanyahu privately acknowledges that Israel currently has limited ability to influence Trump and that it has become difficult to pressure the US president. This is according to channel 13. Now as we know again take every leak with a grain of salt. Is it intentional? Is it genuine? But I I I've been you know I've been saying this for a while. I really think the tide is shifting for Israel. Um things happen that surprise me. Like for example the fact that the Lebanon war is even on the table as a bottleneck is surprising. I wouldn't expect it to be a bottleneck at all. After Trump had a call with Netanyahu, he should have told him, "Hey, you stopped the war there and that's the end of it." Um, and then I don't know if you saw another report from Axio, apparently Trump told Gulf countries, Arab countries, that after this deal is reached, the peace deal is reached, he wants them to sign the Abrahams Accord, >> which is bit of a surprise. Where'd that come from?

[00:42:39]>> That's going to happen. I'll see pigs flying before that happens.

[00:42:43]>> Yeah. Yeah. The complete opposite is going to happen. I think the countries like the UAE and others in Bahrain will revisit the Abraham's accords they have with Israel. Um yes I just don't I think the complete opposite is going to happen. But um but what I'm saying is that these reports kind of make me question my my my thesis that Trump has more influence over Netanyahu versus vice versa. Where do you stand on this seeing how things are developing? You still think Netanyahu has or do you think Netanyahu has still has significant influence over Trump or it's wavering after that war?

[00:43:14]>> Yeah. No, I think he still has significant influence. It's not just Netanyahu. I mean, if it was just Netanyahu, fine. He he might not have the clout, but it's not just Netanyahu.

[00:43:28]>> I said 200 I get $250 million $250 million reasons uh from just Miriam Aden alone.

[00:43:36]>> Yeah, the Massie election is an example.

[00:43:39]Paul Paul Sanger is it, you know, the guy that's benefited from the Venezuelan oil that had the oil refineries. You know, again, he's he's a major uh dollar guy as well, even though he tried to uh sabotage Trump back in 2016. You know, he was the one that initially funded what later became known as the Steel Dossier. He he played a role in that initially. So uh the it is the strength of the Zionist lobby in the United States which you know continues to constrain what Trump can and cannot do and that Zionist lobby they control uh Marco Rubio and you know with you know they're showing getting rid of Tulsi Gabbard and Gabbard's on her way out. Uh it is, you know, Trump is still beholdened and uh you know, I particularly reacted when when Ted Cruz got the first words of what this supposed agreement was. Man, he went ballistic.

[00:44:42]>> So, you know, Trump >> Yeah, Trump is he's still, you know, uh it's not that Netanyahu himself is so powerful, it's the overall Zionist structure because Netanyahu is going to go away. That Zionist structure is going to stay in place. That's not going to disappear. U yeah it is it's it it's got enormous influence and you know let's not forget Larry Ellison and control of Tik Tok that let's not forget uh there's also control of CBS. So they're controlling a number of media outlets in order to per perpetuate the propaganda that Iran is this impossible fanatical Islamic state that wants to kill Christians again. And when you go back and try to point out the people say okay let's let's look at the difference between how does Islam treat Jesus and Mary vice how does Judaism treat Jesus and Mary great difference the Islam mo oh yeah most the m vast vast majority except for the Sunnis you know the the Sunni extremists and I don't want to tar the regular Sunnis because the again the vast vast vast majority of Muslims adhere to the Muslim principles. They recognize Jesus as a prophet. The Jews don't.

[00:46:01]The within Islam, Mary is venerated as a holy woman. Not in Judaism, >> but they don't see them. She >> she's referred to as a [ __ ] As a [ __ ] >> Yes.

[00:46:18]Um, so you tell you tell you tell me and yet we've been, you know, perpetuated with this ridiculous notion that, oh, we share Judeo-Christian values. No, we don't. But the Christianity has more in common with Islam than it does with Judaism.

[00:46:36]>> Yeah. And this is an area outside my area of expertise completely. Um, so Lindsey Graham put out a post um today. This made me laugh and get really upset. Not sure if you saw it. The one that came in earlier today. Did you see it?

[00:46:51]>> You No, I didn't see it. But you got to stop reading that dude, man. He's going to he's going to cause you to prematurely gray.

[00:46:57]>> I enjoyed that one because he said everything first. I agree with everything he said. You actually I'm going to read it out for you. I agree with him, but then it drove me nuts the fact that he's even saying this. I'm I started feeling bad for Trump. He has to deal with people like this. He says the following. If a deal is struck to end the Iranian conflict because it is believed that the straight of Homus cannot be protected from Iranian terrorism and Iran still possesses the capability to destroy major Gulf oil infrastructure, then Iran will be perceived as being do a dominant force requiring a diplomatic solution. So saying if Iran still can close the straight, still can cause damage in the Gulf, then Iran is a strong power in the region that has to be dealt with diplomat diplomatically like that's a bad thing. This combination of Iran being perceived as having the ability to terrorize the straits in perpetuity and the ability to inflict massive damage to Gulf oil infrastructure is a major shift of the balance of power. Remember I've said this a lot. The major shift of the balance of power in the region and over time will be a nightmare for Israel.

[00:47:54]This is a senator of South South Carolina just to be clear. Senator for South Carolina.

[00:47:59]>> He's right. He's right. He's right so far.

[00:48:01]>> Yeah, I agree with Yeah.

[00:48:03]>> Exactly. Exactly. He's finally saying what we've been saying for a long time as if it's a revelation. And look what he what his conclusion is. Also, it makes one wonder why the war started to begin with if these perceptions are accurate.

[00:48:18]I am not knowing that he's the reason it started. I personally am a skeptic of the idea that Iran cannot be denied the ability to terrorize the strait of the reg and the region cannot protect itself against Iranian military capability. It is important to get this right. Imagine Trump reading this saying US sobb dragged me in this war. Told me we can easily cause regime change. Iran will capitulate. Then Iran did not capitulate. Iran closed the shadow of homes like everyone else told me. Iran struck the Gulf infrastructure like everyone else told me. And Iran told me they will do. Now I'm stuck in the war.

[00:48:52]And you're telling me why did we start the war? Because Iran knowing that Iran will do these things. How wild is this watching it play out?

[00:49:02]I I'm glad I'm sitting down. I never thought I would find myself agreeing with with Lindsey Graham.

[00:49:10]>> Exactly.

[00:49:10]>> He's he's right. So, u I mean, look, that is the reality. Iran now has become the regional power.

[00:49:22]up until February 28th, you could make the case that the Saudis were the regional power because they had the full backing of the United States. And what what we learned during the first five weeks of the war is that despite the United States and its superpower status, that there are limits to US power, that we our our ships had to stay away from the shores because they were vulnerable to attacks because of the advances in missile technology. The United States didn't face that kind of threat, you know, 40 oh jeez 40 or 38 years ago when the uh oil escort operations were underway when when Iran tried to shut down traffic in the Persian Gulf. Hell, we we sailed US Navy ships up into the Gulf and they weren't facing threats from missiles or from drones. There were a few they did have fast attack boats back then, but as I mentioned before, a friend of mine, he was the commander of the Hercules barge. You know, he fought off one night 24 Iranian gunboats with uh, you know, little birds and, you know, some J-C assets. So, completely different picture today. picture today is no US naval ship dares enter the Persian Gulf with or it can if it if it tries to challenge the Iranians it will be sunk. Now Iranians have they've they've held ceasefire so far as in accordance with the agreements reached you know April 15th.

[00:50:57]So, you know, but with what the Gulf Arabs learned is, okay, the US Navy can't protect us. And these air defense systems that they thought would protect us, they turned out to be a bust. The Patriot and the the THAAD, I mean, hell, Iran took out a billion dollar radar system, the Qatar with a drone, you know, not with a ballistic missile, with a drone. And these systems were supposed to prevent that. They didn't.

[00:51:27]So now the Saudis and Qataris are sitting back around looking saying you know we bought this insurance policy with the west and it doesn't work. They can't assure they can't guarantee our security. Now along come Russia and China and using Pakistan as the the lead negotiator in this um and you know I I I learned something earlier today. Uh I'm not at privilege to u release it, but uh the the Saudis and the Pakistanis have signed a pretty unique agreement. When that becomes public, it's going to set off some major alarm bells in Israel and in Washington.

[00:52:09]>> Is that blackjack next to you traveling with you?

[00:52:12]>> Well, no, that's actually Leia. So, okay. my my the female Rody the PR the princess.

[00:52:22]>> So last question for you Larry is putting all this together and based on the latest developments I always like to ask you that that that question every time. Uh with the information we have today what would you speculate could happen next?

[00:52:34]>> Uh we'll wait till when Eid is over. I think the United States will renew attacks.

[00:52:39]>> Oh wow.

[00:52:42]Hey, and get to call me back and say you were wrong.

[00:52:47]>> That'll be wild though. That's crazy if that happens.

[00:52:50]>> Yeah, I hope it doesn't. Uh, you know, you're you're correct that there is a foundation for an agreement here. Uh, the Pakistanis, I believe, are pretty confident that they they do have the meth the the means for an agreement, that we at least got the Gulf Arabs lined up, Iran's lined up. The only the wild cards here are Donald Trump and the Zionists.

[00:53:11]Until we get that sorted out, uh the the possibility of renewed conflict is still high.

[00:53:20]>> On a great note, Larry, always a pleasure to have you. Thank you so much for jumping on. I hope you're enjoying your time off.

[00:53:26]>> So much so much for optimism. But my friend, I listen I I I hope you get to come back and you get to say, "Hey, Johnson, you were wrong. You're old, but you're not wise." I go, "Yeah, that's true. I am old."

[00:53:39]>> Thank you, Larry. Good to see you. Oh, my friend. Hey, we'll see you later this week, I'm sure.

[00:53:44]>> See you, my friend.

[00:53:46]>> All right, guys. I'll give you a quick news recap. Um, and then we'll wrap it up for the day. Just going to give you an update so you're in the loop of all the latest developments because there's been a lot. I've given the recap briefly in the last few interviews, in the last seven interviews, and this one's the eighth, but I'll kind of give you a summary of everything so you're fully um updated. Um, so we had I woke up in the morning to a continuation of the positive news we had yesterday. So on the American side, let me go on the American side. So Trump posted talking about how Barack Obama's deal was terrible. His deal will be better. His deal will be the exact opposite. He said the blockade will remain in full force in effect until an agreement is reached and certified. But he then starts talking positively about Iran. I saw that as a really good sign. I still do, by the way. Our relationship with Iran is becoming a much more professional and productive one. They must understand however they cannot develop a or procure a nuclear weapon or bomb. I would like to thank thus far all of the countries in the Middle East for their support blah blah blah. But he's talking about Iran in diplomatic way. He even mentioned at the end so he said who knows maybe Iran joins the Abrahams accords. So you know it's a massive shift of tonality where he's no longer disrespecting them making threats. So that was a really positive development.

[00:54:58]Then we had Axios revealing the details of the deal. They say the deal has a ceasefire, 60-day ceasefire extension.

[00:55:05]Uh the straight home is reopened with no tolls and then the US would lift its blockade um and issue sanctions waiverss just letting Iran sell oil freely.

[00:55:15]That's the only waiver that they would they talked about. No unfreezing of assets. Uh the unfreezing of assets only happens after um certain conditions are met. We don't know what these conditions are met and verifiably implemented. Iran commits in the MOU to never pursue a nuclear weapon, which means nothing because they already have that commitment and had it for years, and to negotiate suspending enrichment and removing its uranium stockpile. So, they'll just have to agree. They're like, "Hey, we won't have a nuclear weapon and we'll negotiate about getting rid of our nuclear stockpile." Such a small it's it's not even a concession.

[00:55:51]Um Iranian apparently the Iranians gave um verbal commitments through mediators telling them how far they'll go. Um, US forces stay in the region for a full 60 days, withdrawing only after a final deal was reached. The MOU explicitly ends the war in Lebanon.

[00:56:10]Gulf countries all back the deal.

[00:56:12]Netanyahu raised concerns about the Lebanon ceasefire on a call with Trump.

[00:56:17]But according to Axio, he was overridden, but now we're hearing that this is a sticking point for the deal.

[00:56:22]Um, so that was a report from the New York Times. Sorry, Axio. The New York Times reported that um Iran apparently committed to giving up its nuclear stockpile of enriched uranium. Um and they folded apparently when the US negotiators threatened to walk away and resume strikes. Find it hard to believe they've made it clear they don't fall for threats, but that's what the report by the New York Times claims. Roughly 9370 blah blah blah. Um another detail in the New York Times, the MOU explicitly ends the war in Lebanon. Um they mentioned about what I just said.

[00:56:54]So kind of confirming what Axio said.

[00:56:57]Then you have Rubio Rubio making a comment. He says, "No international waterway, no international airspace should ever be used or rationalized by any country in the world that that should never be accepted as a new normal." Talking about Iran closing the shredder homeless. So we're hearing great news from the US that a deal is near and Iran's giving up all these concessions.

[00:57:18]Immediately uh Iran through Reuters first despite claims Iran firmly rejects transferring the enriched uranium stockpile abroad. So immediately they're saying no to the apparent condition in the deal according to the US media. Then the Iranian foreign minister, his spokesperson, so an official says, "We have moved closer to finalizing a deal, but there's still issues which include the ceasefire in Lebanon, maritime issues, and the releasing of frozen assets, so they haven't been resolved yet."

[00:57:52]Then Iran's far news dropped something wild. According to them, American official. Okay, so that's an interesting one. Then the Iranians say, "American officials have been privately messaging us, telling us to ignore Trump's posts about a deal because they're quote primarily focused for promotional purposes and media consumption." So essentially, according to Forest, it's up to you if you want to believe it. But they're saying, "American officials saw us to ignore Trump. All he's doing now is just an information warfare, just kind of feeding propaganda to his people to make it seem like a win. Let him do his thing." Which I agree. Let him do his thing. If that if that means him walking away, perfect. But that says a lot on the the posts by Trump and the media the leaks that are coming through a New York Times. Again, that's assuming you believe that report from far news.

[00:58:34]Then Iran made it clear through tasnim news uh that the straight of Hamuz will not go back to the way it was. It's Iran's sovereign territory and they control the straight of Hammuz and they will be charging a fee on the straits.

[00:58:46]So they've made it very clear today that the reports by the New York Times and Axio about the Iran not charging a fee are false.

[00:58:56]Um and then Iranian then say they haven't agreed on anything to do with their nuclear program. Claims that Iran agreed to a 20-year nuclear suspension with the US are spreading like wild fire wildfire. Iran denies them. Again, according to Tesium News, no suspension, no commitment to remove nuclear materials, nothing on the nuclear file at all in the current agreement. So again, that goes completely against this is why it's concerning, guys. It's that we're getting completely opposing reports from Western media and Iranian media. And I don't get the point of it.

[00:59:25]Like one of my producers told me something interesting. I mentioned it in a previous interview. Like Mario, I think this is all intentional on the American side because the deal will obviously be a bad deal for the US, but what Trump and the media are doing right now is trying to confuse the average reader as much as possible. So when the deal actually comes out, people are just lost. What's true, what's not true, what claims are true. Um, and they just kind of forget about it, lost with all the the the um flood of information. So the information overload is intentional to confuse the average person, the average voter. It's a very interesting point and that could be true.

[00:59:57]Then Tim says, Tus News says Iran and the US are still deadlocked on the final language of their potential agreement and according to Iran, Washington is the one blocking finalization. The deal is written, one or two points are left.

[01:00:12]Um, and then lastly, we've got Tany Muse. According to the Iranian president, he said it to Tany Muse that no decision is going to be made without the Supreme Leaders, okay, without his go-ahad. Okay, so that's on the Iranian side. We've told the American side, the Iranian side. Now, what is the Israeli media and officials saying? Well, number one, according to um I think according to Harets's No, according to see the source, there it is, channel 14, Netanyahu has ordered his ministers not to talk to the media about the impending US Iran deal. Israel likely isn't thrilled. So, yeah, Netanyahu told his ministers not to talk about the deal whatsoever. In other words, the way I interpret this, assuming the report is true, that the deal is bad and you know, just Israel doesn't want any attention to it whatsoever. Or maybe they're trying to sabotage the deal or maybe they're trying to make changes to the deal. So they they keep being hush hush about it. I would guess it's because it's a bad deal. And I would assume it's going to be a bad deal. I've been saying this for a long time, guys, as you probably know, is that this is going to be the, you know, horrible deal for the US. Catastrophic deal for Israel long term because Iran's going to come out much stronger.

[01:01:21]Then you've got Israeli politician Benny Gant slams potential US Iran deals. He starts attacking the deal. He says, quote, "It is absolutely forbidden under any circumstances to accept the ceasefire in Lebanon as part of the deal with Iran. acquies acquiescencing to the ceasefire in Lebanon as part of the deal with Iran will be a strategic mistake that will pay for for years to come.

[01:01:43]This is exactly the case where Israel needs to stay to the US. No, there you go. Netanyahu facing pressure domestically to make sure this does not happen because that will be catastrophic for him politically. Then you got Harets. Harets claiming Israeli sources told them the US Iran deal under discussion would preserve Israel's quote freedom of action in Lebanon and other areas. Now just to be clear guys just don't forget when the ceasefire happened and there were report Israel was saying no we will not stop attacking and said it himself the war with Lebanon is not going to be part of the ceasefire and then what happened afterwards 2 days later and I remember I was puling about it I said guys I expect it to happen because I'm under the belief and many of you disagree with this but I really believe at the moment Trump has significantly more influence over Netanyahu than vice versa. Now, Larry made a good point earlier. He said, "Mario, it's not only about Natalya.

[01:02:33]It's about all the donors." That's where it gets more complex and that's why it's hard for me to have an opinion on that.

[01:02:38]I don't have that much transparency on the on what's going on on that front.

[01:02:42]Now, um so yeah, um we saw the same thing after the last ceasefire, the the initial ceasefire with this Israel saying, "No, no, we're going to keep striking and then two days later they stopped and they abided by the ceasefire." I expect the same thing to happen here, you know, but I'm far from certain. So that's what has happened so far. And then um the bad news starts to come in. So this is where the deal starts to look like it's on the verge of collapsing.

[01:03:09]So Tas Mu said as the reports were coming out said the MOU between Iran and America may be cancelled. Channel 13 reported that Netanyahu is said to have told officials in recent discussions that Israel's ability to influence Trump is very low or very limited and he believes Trump will move into an intimate inter interim agreement with Iran. Israel is now mainly trying to influence the content of the agreement particularly regarding Lebanon and we're seeing that unfold. Um the north and the the Lebanon the north and the removal of enriched uranium from Iranian territory. Netanyahu was holding another meeting of the restricted security cabinet tonight following discussions held over the past 24 hours.

[01:03:50]Uh what else does he say? Oh, that's interesting. Israeli officials also say Trump's decision to pursue an agreement instead of a military campaign was heavily influenced at the last moment by close advisers particularly Jared Kushner and Steve Witkov. So Kushner and Witkov according to many reports I've seen this a few times but this one is according to Israeli channel 13 but I've seen it before as well. they played a role in reaching this deal. There was a report yesterday, if you remember guys, I talked about it yesterday, there was a report in one of the the western media outlets that there was a disagreement in the White House on what to do next.

[01:04:23]Rubio and Hexath wanted pressure and military action and Jared Kushner and Witkoff wanted a deal. So, a lot of people thought J Kushner Witkoff are the hawks in this in these negotiations.

[01:04:36]multiple multiple reports showing them in this particular case to be ones that are seeking an end to the war.

[01:04:43]Netanyahu's a Ron Durmer has meanwhile returned to lead talks with the Americans in recent days and participate in the latest discussions. Whenever one of these guys goes to the US, it's not a good sign. US officials are optimistic that a deal with Iran will be signed within days, but they also acknowledge it has not been finalized and could still fall apart. According to Axios, quote, "We are in very good place, but there are ways in which the deal can be undermined." So, it's already being downplayed heavily from a deal imminent yet last night to a deal is going to happen today to now we're in a good place, but it will take a few days.

[01:05:11]There's points still to discuss and Trump posted saying the same thing that will take a few days and I told my team to take their time. So many conflicting messages as well to watch this unfold.

[01:05:21]Um, channel 12 points of contention are two things. Israel's demands for freedom of military action in Lebanon and Iran demanding that its assets are unfrozen right now. So these are the two sticking points that are happening right now according to channel 12. Then we have Alazer. So Ali Hashim um that's I haven't read this one. I'll read it out with you guys. So Ali Hashim is the one that reported yesterday. He's from Alazer. I've had him on the show multiple times. So he he's the one that was saying yesterday that the deal includes the US unfreezing American assets, pulling out from bases in the region, and Iran still charging a fee.

[01:05:56]So essentially he his claim yesterday that the deal is going to be complete capitulation for the US. So you got him, Ali Hashim and others on one extreme, Western media on the other extreme.

[01:06:06]Well, he did this post um a couple of hours ago. I haven't read it, so I'll read it here for the first time with you guys. Less than 24 hours after optimism emerged about possible Iran US memorandum, negative vibes are already surfacing. A well-informed Iranian source tells me there are signs of US retreat on two central issues. The mechanism for unfreezing Iranian assets and the scope as a c of a ceasefire in Lebanon. According to the source, the memorandum includes a Lebanon ceasefire framework, but Israel is reportedly uncomfortable with the arrangement and is pushing Washington to include language allowing it to carry out military operations in Lebanon under the justification of responding to quote any threat. Iran is rejecting that that formulation and insisting on a on a sustainable and lasting ceasefire. Iran has informed all mediators including Pakistan that it will not sign the MOU unless all clauses are fully agreed and guaranteed. Pakistan reportedly suggested moving forward with agreed sections while postponing contentious points. But Iran rejected that approach very interesting insisting the disputed clauses are fundamentally and non fundamental and non-negotiable. The overall picture suggests Iran increasingly views Washington as backing away from early understandings reached through mediators.

[01:07:21]Very interesting. So you've got Alazer here saying that um the main issue is the Lebanon matter. It's not the unfreezing of assets and Iran is standing its ground that it wants a proper end to the war in Lebanon. Um not a ceasefire in name only as we've seen in the last couple of years. And then only gets worse from here guys. So we have Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu acknowledged that he's losing influence over Trump. I said that already. Um CNN says, quote, "Iran will not get any money or sanctions relief up front." So, it's kind of echoing the Western media narrative coming from CNN. Now, then you've got a senior administration official told CNN's Scott Jennings that a final agreement between the US and Iran is not yet complete, but he said that negotiations are 95% done. And he says the following. The proposed framework is set to involve two stages.

[01:08:06]First, reopening the trade of humorous to restore global commercial shipping.

[01:08:10]So that's an official talking to Jennings, Scott Jennings from CNN. While Iran agrees in principle to surrender enriched uranium and second, transferring the nuclear material before sanctions relief is granted.

[01:08:23]The US position remains that Iran will not receive sanctions relief or financial benefits in advance. The senior administration official said the long-term American objective remains preventing Iran from blah blah blah blah blah blah. Conclusion from this point is echoing what other sources have said.

[01:08:40]The US wants Iran. The fee is not mentioned here. So it's very important that the fee that the traum is not being mentioned. I think that if I want to read this correctly, the US has agreed that Iran will charge a fee. I think that's me guessing. I haven't heard anyone say this, but I really wouldn't be surprised if there's some sort of agreement or the beginnings of of a discussion of an agreement with other Gulf countries to share the proceeds from from that fee.

[01:09:04]So I think the main sticking point guys is Trump wants more concessions from Iran on their nuclear program and enriched uranium because that gives them a diplomatic win back home mainly.

[01:09:14]That's that's the main reason because this is an MOU. There's not nothing significant in this. This is more for optics when it comes to the nuclear program. Iran should give him this because it's just for optics. It doesn't change anything just to kind of get something on paper. And the big other sticking point is Iran wants the assets unfrozen now because they don't trust the Americans will do it later and the US does not because Trump keeps criticizing how Obama sent billions of dollars to Iran and now he's doing the same thing at a bigger scale.

[01:09:42]He even posted today which is stupid.

[01:09:44]He's shooting himself in the foot. He posted today criticizing Obama's deal even though he's based on what we're seeing. He's doing a very similar freaking deal. So I think these are the two main sticking points. I'm in the belief and I've said this already in this show with Larry and before is that I think the issue of Lebanon will be resolved faster than the others as I said during the last ceasefire and that's not according to any sources. I haven't had to speak time to speak to anyone with all the interviews today but that's just my understanding how I'm seeing things unfold and comparing it to what I saw in the last ceasefire. If you remember guys we were I take credit we were by far the first people to report the ceasefire when it first happened 50 minutes before anyone else. So we had some good information from people that are leading the negotiations and based on these discussions I knew that I came on to the conclusion can't say I knew that Trump was calling the shots when it came to Netanyahu. Netanyahu's position is weaker after this war than before and I'm still in that belief unless things have changed unless donors have changed.

[01:10:38]I don't know anything about the donors.

[01:10:40]Um and based on that I think the issue with Lebanon will be resolved.

[01:10:44]Um, and then the last bits of information came in, more negative news.

[01:10:50]Um, another report from CNN saying that there's going to be no one freezing of assets without the some concessions on the nuclear program which Iran has drawn a red line on. Um, okay. And Tasim just put out a report when was that? 12:41 3 hours ago, three and a half hours ago. An informed source told also told Tasim that Iran holds no optimism towards the US conducting all exchanges through the Pakistani mediators yet. They're saying Iran does not trust the US. They want to go through Pakistan and even if a deal is signed, they still don't trust the US because the US has broken so many deals.

[01:11:23]And last thing, the last piece of information guys, uh Tasnim has pushed back against the I24, the Israeli news outlet. Their report claiming America's official said Iran would not receive sanctions relief until it begins transferring its enriched uranium. So what's happening guys is there's Iran's talked about this before. A deal is reached between Iran and the US. And by the way, the Iranians are very slow. A report came in from CBS about CBS about this today. Iran's very slow in responding to deals because the the supreme leader has to okay things and it takes a long time for the for the information to get to him to get has to go through couriers and goes one career to another to another until he gets the information and that's been the case for a while because of that which is by the way this is just wild that this is the case. There's two countries negotiating and one country has a leader in hiding because he's worried about getting assassinated in the midst of a ceasefire and peace negotiations. Shows you how crazy the situation is.

[01:12:16]But there's a there's a slow process from the Iranians to respond. And what's going on is that every time there's a deal reached, it seems that Trump goes, you know, he wants to sign a deal, then all these different people with influence are kind of, you know, kind of pushing him one way or another, pulling him in different directions and and that's kind of delaying the process. My conclusion from all this and and I'll I'll um if I have more information on this guys, I'll post it on my Twitter account. But from all these discussions, the information I've had from yesterday, um a deal will be reached. I'm still in the same position I've had for a while.

[01:12:45]You know, I've inf infamously been saying the war is over um since the ceasefire and that the war is going to be ending two weeks before the ceasefire. I've been the optimistic one.

[01:12:54]I still am. And the reason is not because I'm a I'm an optimist. is because I I just think that the US cannot afford this war diplomatically, politically, so politically, financially, diplomatically with allies as well. Um, so when I say financially, I mean economically for the US and the world. And most importantly, the the American military is in a very very very bad position to delay weapons shipments to Taiwan and Japan and Europe says a lot. Um, so the US cannot afford this and we're not even talking about the the the country's national debt. So that's why I've been saying the war's over for so long and from people that I speak to that are um closer to Trump than I am.

[01:13:35]Um you know, everyone is saying that Trump wants to walk the f away from this war. The only question is does he have enough influence, does enough power to be able to make his own decisions rather than make the decisions at the behest of others? I'm in the belief and yes, there is a lot of influence over him, just not enough to drag him back into this war. But look, I I'm I've been in some cases I've questioned my own beliefs. I've been 50/50 a couple of stages where I thought we could be on the brink of war and we are. Just don't just to be clear, I still believe we could get back into war. I'm not saying 100% the war is over. I'd be leaning at it like now I'd be like 80 to 90%. But that gives it 20 to 20% likelihood the war could return.

[01:14:16]Um and that that would be a different discussion of how that war would look like, a decapitation strike, energy infrastructure, etc. But that's a nightmarish scenario that I don't even want to talk about. I think it's highly unlikely, but I think it'd be catastrophic for the region. Um, guys, I've done eight interviews today. I hope you enjoyed them. I hope you enjoyed all the different perspectives or the different voices that we get on the show. And, um, you probably should know by now, especially those of you who have been following me for a few years on X.

[01:14:41]My goal is to always get, you know, to listen to all sides of any debate, any argument. That's what I enjoy doing. Um, some guests I debate, some guests I just listen to. Um some sometimes I host debates but the the intention is to always hear different voices. Not many YouTube channels do this. All of them are kind of have one belief and they stick to that belief and all the guests um kind of fit that um you know I want to say confirmation bias but certain beliefs that the host of that show has.

[01:15:12]Um most shows are like this not all of them. Um that's not what I want to build. Um, I I enjoy hearing different voices, bringing sides together, and I've traveled to Ukraine. I've traveled to Russia. I've interviewed people like Lucenko, um, politicians in Ukraine, politicians in in Russia, Lavrov, um, interviewed people from Hunter Biden to Don Jr., Donald Trump Jr. So, I've interviewed people from all sides when it comes to any war, any conflict, presidents, prime ministers, the president of of Rwanda, the head of the militia in Congo. The list goes on. So, I've been doing this for years. That's what I enjoy doing. That's what I'll continue doing. So, I hope you enjoy hearing different perspectives, even those you disagree with. Um, so yeah, let me know your thoughts in the in the comments. I'll go through them tonight as always. I went through some of them from the previous videos. Enjoyed the feedback. Let me know what you think of today's shows, the show just now as well. Um, and in general, just the style in which I conduct I I host the show and the guests that I have and the way I conduct the interview, different styles, catering to different guests. Let me know everything. I really appreciate you guys and have a wonderful day. Hopefully we'll have more good news tomorrow. Bye everyone.