US-IRAN WARCAST - DAY 47 - Live w/ Malcolm Nance, Jacob Kaarsbo, Wajeeh Lion

Added: 2026-05-04

[00:00:01]Welcome to Blackman Spy, the US Iran warcast, the real day 47. As you know, yesterday uh we had to do a Groundhog's Day on day 46. Turns out one of my eagleeyed uh followers had for several days been trying to correct uh that I was off by a day. And the problem was I was not seeing those comments. The comments fly by down below me. Uh but someone who was assisting me with uh with the questions um saw it the other day and said, "Hey, this person's been saying you're off by a day." So we did a count and it was day 46 again. So today is the real day 47 of the US Iran war or the seventh day since the beginning of the ceasefire. That's right. We are one week into the two week limit of the ceasefire and we have some news on that front as well. But first, let me introduce you to my co-host, uh, Jacob Carsbow, Danish intelligence officer, Middle East expert extraordinaire.

[00:01:22]Um, and Waja the Gay Lion from Minneapolis, Minnesota. Well, let me rephrase that. From Saudi Arabia, now reporting to us from Minneapolis, Minnesota. uh he is our Gulf States geopolitical analyst and expert uh in everything pattery and cultury although he is wearing an Afghan pahul right now and uh and I have you I have you outgamed in the pul market I've got three or four of those things man but I'm in Canada now as you can see I'm using my Canada monitor and we are I am not in my beautiful writing office which I've noted many of you have asked me to give a tour of my writing office when I get back to the United States. I don't know when that is. Um I will give a tour to our paid subscribers uh of the not just the writing office but also I have the ManskF and Goat Locker. Uh so I will give you a tour of that. That being said, first a little administration. Oh, Jacob, you have something you'd like to say? Let let me just let me just say I have a an analysis of of what Waji is trying to signal here. He's trying to signal that what is going on is about as useful as the beautiful deal where Donald Trump surrendered Afghanistan to the Taliban.

[00:02:50]>> Afghanistan.

[00:02:52]>> That is that is the subtle message of Wajis.

[00:02:58]>> I love it. Crazy. That isn't even subtle, baby. That's That's pretty in your face. Uh Jacob, I think you missed the Bahul Wars. You weren't on one day when I had the woodland camouflage that I got from a jihadi in Jalalabad who actually swapped with me and he spoke Arabic and he goes, "Now you look like a jihadi." uh which is chapter 20 something in my book Thinker Sailor Black Man Spy, my memoir of an intelligence warrior. That being said, um the let's first before we go any further, we're just a couple hundred people away from a thousand. We generally start the briefing around a thousand. And it is to get some good light-hearted humor in there. But first, I'd like to do some administration.

[00:03:45]If you see that little heart down at the bottom, you need to poke that 10 or 20 times. I'm doing it right now. 1 2 3 5 6 7 9 8 9 10 11 12 3 4 6 7 8 9 20. And that tells the algorithm that this podcast is beloved but also is active and valuable and that changes the algorithm. We all know that algorithms guide our light, right? Our lives right now, right? SEO, you know, how it ranks on certain things. Um, really depends on the input of the users. And I know I have been reading your comments later in the day, sometimes two days later. And I know you guys have become a community. I mean, this is like a morning coffee clatch, right? Or as they say in Greenland, a coffee m. And uh, and you know the rules of a coffee m. You come in, you drink your coffee, 30 minutes, get out, go home. But not here.

[00:04:48]>> And you show your cuffs.

[00:04:49]>> Right. So, Jacob, let's see your mug.

[00:04:53]Hold it up to the camera. I can't read it from here.

[00:04:55]>> That's the old CIA mug. It's the the the inscription here isn't that good, but it says, "I'm an analyst." And and the guy has trouble spelling analyst, so he gives up and says, "Bye."

[00:05:10]I h I have that I have that in a t-shirt which was uh gifted to me from a friend who is now the director of the National Cryptologic Museum and it says IR cryptog.

[00:05:24]I cryptoist and it's crossed out goes I break codes.

[00:05:30]Yeah.

[00:05:34]>> So awesome. What's yours? Are you still on those Italian mugs?

[00:05:39]>> You know, I I need to buy new cups just to compete with you guys.

[00:05:43]>> Need to up your game. You need to get like, you know, an F ice Minneapolis cup, right? Or something along that line. And of course, because I am back up in the Grand Nord. Uh I showed you my Canadian cup. I'm I'm taking my espressos, double espressos, storing hot today, man. I mean, you know, I'm not taking them in a full mug. I don't complete them. They get cold. So, now I have this little uh insulated aluminum cup, which I usually carry on my trips.

[00:06:14]Uh and uh I'm having it raw.

[00:06:18]Thank you, toffee. Otherwise, we wouldn't be able to get through the madness that is the US Iran war. Well, let's go through the briefing. Waja, >> I have to make a comment. I have to make a comment. You have to make a comment.

[00:06:32]It's funny.

[00:06:32]>> Yeah. For a for a spy, you live as comfy as 007.

[00:06:37]>> That's not true at all. Okay. Short aside, short aside, I don't have it here at my fingertips. One of these days I will have a paid subscribers discussion about my upcoming memoir, Thinker, Sailor, Blackman, Spy, Code Breaker, Patriot, Widow, or I, which is the subtitle. And we are going to have to have a talk about James Ba because I wrote an entire thousandword essay about how um a good friend of mine is a woman by the name of Helen Fry, Dr. Helen Fry. She is a expert, an authority on the special women in the special operations executive and Latimer House, which I've been to outside of London. And uh I I do look good in a tux. You should see me in my Navy tuxedo. Uh, but somebody made a comment. But Vlatimer House was a place they brought all the German high-ranking officers who wouldn't talk and they put them there in luxury in this beautiful manor house. And but the entire complex, all those outhouses, the structure, the hotel, the bar, everything in it was wired for listening everywhere. There were no corners in that house. Many of the bugs still remain. The wiring's all there. Uh but the intelligence officers who worked at Latimer house included one lieutenant, uh Ian Fleming. And Ian Fleming would hang out at night with the people who were monitoring all the German officers after they put them back into their little bungalows where they would still had monitoring teams. And they would hang out in the side bar at Latimer House, which is a beautiful bar.

[00:08:27]I mean, it's a nice bar. Lounges, chairs. It's just like it was back in the day. But the drink of the intelligence officers at Latimer House was not a vodka martini shaken and not stirred. It was pink gin and tonics. And I've come to love pink gin. either the grapefruit type that comes from Italy, but there is a a p a a flowered one that's done at Fortnham and Mason in London. And if you guys go up to like the I think it's the fifth or sixth floor at Fortnham and Mason, that's where they have the big Rube Goldsberg machine that makes pink gin. And it's all glass tubes. It's giant. It goes like all the way around the the floor and it pops out. Pink gin, right? That was the spies preferred gin. It was also a subanics of the office of naval intelligence which is Ian Fleming worked for naval intelligence. If you recall the character James Bond was a secunded Navy lieutenant commander sent over to MI6 British secret intelligence. And as you know in Britain you keep your title, right? So as I was sitting there drinking this pink gin, I had an epiphany and I wrote it down in in in one of my uh I may even have have I published that in my substack. I'll have to check. But I wrote it down and it was Ian Fleming wrote the character of James Bond as a satire. It was never intended to be a real serious stuff because literally everything about James Bond is the opposite of how it is in the intelligence community, right? I mean, it would just the literal mirror opposite. And I can almost see him sitting there go, "Hey, hey, listen. I'm going to draw I'm going to make up this character, right? He we're all a bunch of fat schlubs, okay? We're sitting here breaking codes and and tapping Germans and and Ian Fleming was also involved and the man who uh who did who um uh the the operation mincemeat the officer who wasn't real floating a dead body out with plans on the invasion of Sicily. He was deeply involved in that. So that being said, James Bond is a mockery of actual intelligence and people just took the books really seriously.

[00:11:10]And Ian Fleming has never coped to this. But if you read his books, right, you know, I don't know about you, I mountain climbed for a long time, right? So there's this joke in the climbing community, right? Why do we talk about, you know, sex and climbing gear? all of the time, right? Because we we we can't get as much as we need, right? You just never get as much as you need. James Bond the same way, right? These guys are all sitting around Latimer house popping down pink gin and tonics every evening.

[00:11:44]Every evening all the intelligence officers sitting in there and they're just like vodka martini. Who the hell can afford that [ __ ] You know, and then somebody goes, "Yeah, yeah, yeah. say that you're going to shake it, not stir it, so that you can make it a bunch of crap. And then, you know, but don't let on that vodka martinis are what we actually drink. And we never get any women. So, we got to make this guy a total lech. So, James Bond gets it everywhere. First woman he meets is called [ __ ] Galore.

[00:12:19]And you can almost I can see them all making jokes and he's writing this [ __ ] down furiously like, "Yeah, yeah, this guy." And he could only drive an Aston Martin. I'm driving in a freaking, you know, a whole burn or some cheesy ancient car, a beatdown, you know, land.

[00:12:38]I've never seen James Bond drive a Land Rover Defender or series. And I own those. I collect those classic Land Rover. Not James Bond, baby. Uh-uh.

[00:12:48]Aston Martin's for that guy, right? And he's just like, "Let's give him the shittiest pistol we can think of."

[00:12:55]Instead of a 1911, they give him a freaking Walther PPK, which is like 300.

[00:13:03]I can't. It's It's a subcaliber 9 millimeter. Oh my god. James Bond is a caricature of the actual intelligence world. And I think it's awesome that people think it's real because, you know, I get all these guys who, you know, I get a lot of critics on the right wing and from Russia and they're like, "You are no James Bond." It's like, "That's right, bitch."

[00:13:25]>> Yeah, that's right.

[00:13:27]>> Jacob, Jacob, what is your drink of choice, Jacob? Hold it. We should save this for a subscriber substack where we can actually talk in private, right?

[00:13:37]>> Drink right now. It ain't a vodka martini. Jesus Christ. All right.

[00:13:43]Watch it. Look how you took us off. You took us offline. So >> James got in a pod.

[00:13:52]>> Never changes his cover name. You know what? And here's the worst part. We find out in Skyfall his cover name's his real name.

[00:14:02]>> You mean you've been real naming it forever? Okay, enough. Enough. We we will schedule that Substack live on a Friday where we all have drinks. Okay.

[00:14:13]Waja, give us casualties in oil, please.

[00:14:16]Oil.

[00:14:16]>> Iran, we are at 3,375 between that or 7,650 uh killed and 26,500.

[00:14:29]The reason there is a big uh gap between those two numbers, the estimate is because we're still pulling bodies out of the uh rebels and we don't have an accurate number. We have an estimation at the moment. It has 41 dead and 7,4 7,740 people injured >> and wait that's a big jump that they must be including military casualties in that because it was the civilian casualties for a very long time was hovering around 26 27 after the Hifa bombing where they had four people killed. So I bet you they're including military in that. Okay, that works.

[00:15:14]Lebanon, we have 2,89 people killed and 6,762 people injured. United States still stuck at 15 and uh 536 injured. UAE you have 13 killed, 224 injured. Kuwait, 10 killed, 109 injured.

[00:15:41]up. You have 46 killed and 178 injured.

[00:15:46]And that's all we have for now regarding that. Then we move to oil.

[00:15:51]>> Unless you have want to comment on any of that.

[00:15:54]>> No, that we're going to see those casualty counts rise as Israel just keeps ignoring the fact that uh they're tied to this ceasefire. Okay. Oil and it's down significantly.

[00:16:06]>> Yeah, it's down uh 91.5. you mentioned earlier today. You might want to comment on that again.

[00:16:13]>> I'll comment on it about why. Go just read the numbers. Give us the number.

[00:16:17]>> 91.5 for WTI, 956 for Brent crude. So for the first time, Brent crude is higher than WTI for a minute.

[00:16:30]>> Marban. Yeah, Marban is 101.7.

[00:16:35]Well, you know, the WTI dropped $14 over the weekend uh just since well since Easter and uh and now we're going to talk about that. Um okay, let's go to significant activities since we have no spectacular penetrations to think of. Uh thank you Jacob for putting that all in our head. The significant activity of the day is this interview done with Donald Trump with Fox News. And I have to take my headphones off real quick because for you to hear the audio because I accidentally left my earpods in so you can hear what is has impacted oil. We have this discussion all the time about the timed announcements related to market manipulation.

[00:17:36]>> And I'm really a true believer in this.

[00:17:38]And I think when this is all over and done with, a new Congress comes in, you're going to see that people, the White House was manipulating the oil market to make money for their friends.

[00:17:47]Uh there's a guy I read a report yesterday who assorted the oil market uh 11 times within hours or minutes of an announcement by the president, right?

[00:18:01]Somebody who was clearly on the inside and has hit 11 out of 11 times.

[00:18:08]So, uh that means that somebody is making bank and everyone wants to know who that person is. So, Donald Trump yesterday had did an interview with Maria Bartomo. I accidentally watched it live because I was looking for Al Jazzer and this popped up and according to Donald Trump, the war is over.

[00:18:31]>> I saw that. I saw that.

[00:18:33]>> Okay, listen up. I had to divert because if I didn't do that right now, you would have Iran with a nuclear weapon. And if they had a nuclear weapon, you would be calling everybody over there, sir. And you don't want to do that.

[00:18:47]>> Well, you keep saying was. Is this war over?

[00:18:50]>> I think it's close to over. Yeah. I mean, I view it as very close to over.

[00:18:54]You know what? If I pulled up stakes right now, it would take them 20 years to rebuild that country.

[00:19:02]And we're not finished. We'll see what happens. I think they want to make a deal very badly.

[00:19:08]>> Okay. I watched the post interview by Maria Barta to Romo and she walked out of there and said Trump announced the war is over and I thought but I heard his words which were it's close to over but we could go right back in there again. But now in the right-wing blogosphere on the Twitter or le X, however you want to call it, the the single echis, um, they're saying the war is over. I mean, I know it's we will see how it penetrates into the regular media, but did you guys hear the war was over?

[00:19:52]>> It penetrates spectacularly. I will tell you it's uh >> 30 minutes later.

[00:19:59]>> I didn't me myself up for that one.

[00:20:03]>> The head of the IDF military came up 30 minutes later and said we there's a lot more to do. We're not done yet.

[00:20:11]>> The IDF >> the IDF considers Lebanon as as you know as not over. Oh, by the way, we'll get >> He was talking about He was talking about Iran. He said Iran is not over.

[00:20:23]But we're not done with Iran.

[00:20:24]>> Oh, the IDF. Yeah. Well, good luck with that there, buddy.

[00:20:28]>> Um, in other news, uh, I'm sorry. Did you guys that that was your commentary on >> Let me let No, let me let me just say uh you know still regardless of what Trump is trying to dupe uh into the into the media uh you know these negotiations and I I suspect there's another round going to to take place. It seems like it. But you know the thing is the Iranian positions won't have changed. I mean they feel they hold on to as many chips as they did 3 days 4 days ago. Uh and uh this blockade of the blockade hasn't changed anything substantially uh for them. So all these issues that Trump is claiming that, you know, he has he has helped straighten out is just, you know, fantasy and and just outright lies that he's putting putting out there. So what will happen during those negotiations?

[00:21:40]Because they're not going to hold Iran down to zero enrichment. and this whole uh crazy idea that if uh Iran has any enrichment capability, it leads to a nuke. And that that's because that that's Trump Trump's claim. That's utter nonsense. And you know, Lebanon, they're not going to compromise on Lebanon.

[00:22:06]reparations. You see the straight of horm that's not going to be uh that they're not going to budge on that either. So yeah, >> I I I I definitely agree with you. If the United States walk in there feeling like they have the upper hand like they did last time, then we're not going anywhere. And to go on your point, the I did see a confirmation this morning that the United States says um peace negotiations should happen within 48 hours. Um and so that's supposed to happen. Here's here's here's the thing.

[00:22:46]If the because the United States has backed out on their words several times, the Iranians have already told their expectations to the Americans. Show us that we can trust you.

[00:23:02]Give us some indications that there can be trust built. But as long as you're coming in with the cowboy hat, treating the situation like you got everything under control, you're going to walk out disappointed again.

[00:23:20]>> Is Yeah.

[00:23:23]>> Yeah.

[00:23:25]Well, >> so um all I know is that Trump also announced and my other significant activity was I was taking notes actually on something in that he says that the United States and Iran have in principle agreed to extend the ceasefire.

[00:23:46]So right now we've gone a week. We in theory had a week. Uh I understand that talks are supposed to start again in Islamabad uh as early as tomorrow, but I don't think it'll happen tomorrow. I don't think it'll happen until Sunday. Uh which as you know is the Islamic Monday, right? That's they start their work week on our Sunday morning.

[00:24:10]>> So again, another or it could occur Saturday because don't forget they would need to clear every street in Islamabad like they did. They gave like the entire city's workforce the day off, right? So that no one would be on the streets. And not to mention those guys that were taking down signs about 4 days ago. I'll have to jump to it and put those signs back up. Um, so it's going to take a little logistics. Not only that, getting JD Vance back onto Air Force 2, getting the advanced team out there, the, you know, uh, presidential communications team and all that stuff set up, you know, pret. So, we'll see when they're going to do Islamabad. I find it funny how they outright rejected Geneva, just like, no, we don't want Geneva, which would be better for JD Vance, but he wanted Islamabad. So somehow they seem to think that the the Iranians are are doing better than than or are they think that they can get more concessions out of the Pakistanis when in fact I really believe it's just that Pakistan when they're intermediarying are doing it like in the camel souk right they're lying half the time >> uh they are just saying oh he agrees with everything you say, but there's this little thing and the little thing is they won't give up any of their rich uranium. So, it's it's it's methodology of negotiation, but the Iranians don't have to fly far, right?

[00:25:51]>> And uh and what they don't want and of course they escort the Iranians in their airspace, right? So, the Israelis can't shoot them down. The Israelis could definitely shoot them down on the way to Geneva. Not a joke. So uh >> for a second when you were describing the Pakistani that dealing with the silk I thought you were describing me for a second and then I remember >> you're always good that way. All right.

[00:26:17]Okay. We're going to now go on to blockades.

[00:26:22]Uh I had a funny video. Here it is by the way. Oh, I have it. So let me show you this video which is a rendition of the negotiations between Iran and Pakistan and it's actually excellent. It is an excellent example of what is actually happening here and somebody made this up. There's all sorts of people who are really great at these videos. So this is supposed to be Musharaf in between Trump and uh Mujaba on the negotiating on the straight of Hormuz.

[00:27:03]>> History is about to be made. Sir, maybe we stop the war. Everyone is tired. I'll stop when he opens the straight. Very simple deal. Okay. Okay. One second.

[00:27:16]>> He says open the straight.

[00:27:18]>> Wait. Stop.

[00:27:20]I have to show you this. So you have Putin she gear starver what's her name from Japan. This is Netanyahu right. This is Schultz from Ger from Waltz from Germany. And look at he's having a grand old time sitting there waving his legs. This is excellent. Okay.

[00:27:47]>> He says open the straight. Then he stops the war. The strait was never closed under our regulation. Tell him to stop the war first.

[00:28:00]>> Great news. The straight is open.

[00:28:03]Wonderful. Now I want the uranium.

[00:28:08]And then you stop the war. Then I think about it.

[00:28:17]wants the enriched uranium. No.

[00:28:21]Between us, we also have nuclear. After this is done, maybe I share some with you.

[00:28:29]>> Just a little.

[00:28:32]>> Just a little.

[00:28:34]>> He says the doctor must >> No, ABSOLUTELY NOT.

[00:28:44]>> You heard the man.

[00:29:06]Keep them. You want the straight block it. I'm done.

[00:29:14]stay home and they're both closed.

[00:29:21]>> That is the most accurate rendition of the negotiations.

[00:29:27]Not joking. I mean that is how that happens. And I love that part about Pakistan. You want the nukes? Maybe maybe we give you some just a little.

[00:29:36]Right. Um, Pakistan is a nuclear power.

[00:29:42]They have nuclear weapons. Whoops. Um, sorry about that. I have to put my They have atomic bombs. They have may have as many as 150, but they are focused exclusively on fighting a war with India and putting an end to India. So um you know I've often wondered about that but Pakistan is not a Shia Muslim c country. They're a Sunna Muslim country and their defense alliance is with Saudi Arabia. So you know if Iran were ever to invade and start heading towards Mecca the Pakistanis are supposed to send troops and use atomic bombs. That's their secret defense agreement. So uh that was pretty funny. Uh but accurate. Next, let's talk about the blockade of the straight of Hormuz. Um, right now the blockade is having an effect and I'm sure many of you never thought that I would say that.

[00:30:46]It's having an effect for the wrong reasons. Um, Iran appears to be >> Interruption. One second. Sorry.

[00:30:55]>> Is there breaking news about Pakistan? It does have the second largest Shia population in the world.

[00:31:02]>> Ah, it does.

[00:31:04]>> It does. Yeah, >> good point.

[00:31:08]>> That is a good, you know, I always forget how really big Pakistan is.

[00:31:14]What's their population? I want to say it's something like the same as Iran.

[00:31:18]It's a lot. It's like 90 million or something along that line.

[00:31:21]>> The alone are 40 million.

[00:31:23]>> Jeez Louise.

[00:31:25]Okay. How many Pakistanis are there in total? For those of you who don't know where Pakistan came from, when India had its partition, all the Muslims who walked west became Pakistan. All the Muslims who walked east became Bangladesh. And then there's still 90 million Muslims in India out of its 1.5 billion population.

[00:31:46]>> Population is 241.5 million as of 2023.

[00:31:52]>> Pakistan.

[00:31:53]>> Yes. Wow.

[00:31:56]Wow. A lot bigger than I I I recall. 200 million. They're the size of Nigeria.

[00:32:03]They're the Nigeria of South Asia. I mean, that's a lot of people. That's a lot of people. Okay. Wow. I did not know that. So, even though I watched a movie about the 1971 India Pakistan war yesterday.

[00:32:20]So the blockade is on and it appears US Central Command says that they have turned back six ships.

[00:32:30]Now turned back and six ships is a little iffy because some of the ships that they turned back were in the Gulf of Oman as part of Iran's preposition fleet of 23 ships that are sitting off of Fujira.

[00:32:48]right? Waiting there for orders and then those ships would go out. And here's what's going to happen. Those ships did originate in Iranian ports like months ago. And what's going to happen is buyers are now going to have to rent another tanker and come up alongside and do a shipto- ship transfer of that oil.

[00:33:09]And that oil still gets sold. But it appears Iran is leading into the blockade, telling other ships not to go because what happens when that oil stops moving?

[00:33:25]Buer. Buer. Yes. Jacob, you over there in the Denmark.

[00:33:30]>> Oil prices.

[00:33:33]>> Oil prices go up. Trump has this childlike >> Trump has this childlike impression that oil if you cut off Iran's oil that they go poor immediately and they have no money.

[00:33:48]I just it's he has almost a child's view of how economies work. The way that he thinks soldiers are like you know you use those toy ships and you smash them together and that's how you fight war.

[00:34:04]Look, I'm not the greatest uh economic analyst in the world, but I know the basics, right?

[00:34:12]You He thinks I'm going to cut off Iran's oil. He's also saying he's cutting off Iran's food stuffs, which to be quite honest, Pakistan wouldn't have a problem with because they'll just land in Karachi, Pakistan, and now they'll have to be trucked over into Iran across from Charach to Chabahar. Do you have that on your map, Jacob? Can you show the Pakistan one?

[00:34:39]>> Uh because it's right here on this side.

[00:34:42]>> Uh let me look this up for you. So, let me show you this cuz it's important to know >> how close these two areas are. I'm bringing it up on Google first. Whoop.

[00:34:59]Mal, if you if you go go on, I'll find a good M.

[00:35:04]>> Okay. Yeah. All right. But it's important to know these countries are right next to each other. So when you say I'm cutting your fuel off, all you're going to do is give a job to truckers. And you know, funny we should mention that because today we found here on this map, this is what Iraq is doing.

[00:35:24]Iraq is not playing games. They can't get their oil out through the Gulf. That line, that black line you're looking at is not an oil pipeline. That is the new 500 or more truck route bringing oil by truck to the port of Tardis in Syria.

[00:35:44]And Iraq's just like, "Screw it.

[00:35:46]Everybody gets trucks." Now the truckers union, right, the Teamsters uh get to make a whole bunch of money. The Iran the Iraqis are moving 700,000 barrels of oil this way right now. Granted, that might take two or three days, but an oil tanker would take one. One oil tanker could carry all of that, could carry two, three times that amount. But Iraq is also taking advantage of these high prices.

[00:36:16]Every one of those barrels of oil is not going to be sold at the WTI price. It's physical. It's going to be sold at $120, $140, $150 a barrel. They have brought up a tanker, right, to take all of that oil. The tanker offloaded um benzene and is now taking on that oil.

[00:36:39]>> People are looking for bypasses.

[00:36:42]>> There you go. Show it to us, Jake.

[00:36:44]>> Here you go. You got the Karachi down here. You got the border here. Iran here. You have port here in uh in >> Bandar. Where's Chabaha?

[00:36:58]>> Yeah.

[00:36:59]>> Uh Chabahar is like >> right next to the border, right?

[00:37:05]>> Yeah.

[00:37:05]>> It's on the It's on the coast. Right next to the border.

[00:37:08]>> It's >> right there.

[00:37:11]>> And Karach to Chabahar is nothing.

[00:37:15]>> No.

[00:37:16]>> The food's going to come in. Food's going to come in. It's going to be more expensive. But Trump actually thinks he's starving these people. He forgets that there is, let's count all the countries around there. I'm looking Pakistan, Afghanistan.

[00:37:32]Is it Turk Manistan to the north?

[00:37:34]>> Same. Yeah. Aaraban.

[00:37:37]>> Azerbaian, Turkey, and Iraq.

[00:37:40]>> Turkey. Yeah.

[00:37:42]>> You're not going to starve them for food.

[00:37:45]>> And Trump thinks that he's hurt. He said that I could hurt their economy. He said that in the further part of the video.

[00:37:52]They don't have any money. They don't have any He really thinks that. Oh, it's just baby talk. It's just like a five and >> like a goddamn 5-year-old.

[00:38:03]>> All right. That being said, so Iran is complying with the blockade.

[00:38:09]Yes. Waji. There is a large a huge misconception that if we decimate the economy uh the Iranian economy militarily then there would be a fall of the regime and the people will uprise. The only thing in that issue that we didn't measure is that as long as it's a military intervention from the outside, it is very hard for the people who are inside who are even against the government to sympathize with the attackers as long as we're killing innocent uh civilians. So, we are not making Iranians wanting to break down their government. We're making more Iranians pro- Iran and pro- fighting the United States back. The other thing is that Iran is considered to be the bread basket of the Middle East. So you're not actually going to get them hungry because even though if they even without the borders that they have with Azarbaan, Turkmanistan, uh uh uh uh Pajakistan and and they have the borders with Turkey. These are all countries that have a lot of uh sheeps. They have a lot of goats. They have a lot of horses. They have a lot of uh uh stuff for farming. They already have the equipment. So they and they have amazing relationship with Iran. So like I don't I we're not playing this game right.

[00:39:45]>> No, because there's morons at the wheel.

[00:39:47]I mean drunk monkeys with machine guns dancing, you know, in circles shooting everything. think that, oh, I if I shoot louder in the air and I dance faster in a circle, their economy will collapse. I mean, it's it's it's this is stupidity.

[00:40:04]And you can't make these people are the decision makers that 77 million Americans voted for thinking they were smart. Absolutely ludicrous. Okay, let's move on.

[00:40:16]>> Let me just let me just add a thing here. If we then accept Trump's hypothesis, even though it's it's crazy, if if the regime really came under pressure from the blockade and everything else, what would happen? They would escalate. They would escalate in Yemen. They would escalate in Babel Mande. They would escalate against Yanbu, etc., etc. So unless there is a deal to be had, we're going to see this escalatory scenario.

[00:40:53]And uh >> no, we we won't cuz Trump says the war is over, you know. Well, close to over as far as he's concerned. He's viewed this as an offramp. And I really think, and this is ridiculous to even consider it, he thinks that this blockade, okay, is his offramp and that he's doing something really muscular and tough to make the Iranians break at the table.

[00:41:23]And the Iranians are going to let him think that. Okay? And there's a reason for that. First off, let me continue on.

[00:41:29]Um, one ship that was turned back uh was called the no that came out was called the sea champion. The reason it wasn't turned back is even though it went to bandor boss, it was offload Canadian and other food stuffs that were purchased humanitarian aid.

[00:41:50]They did not onload anything. It's empty and it's a bulk carrier. Um, insurance companies are clearly not complying.

[00:41:58]They don't think that the Straight of Hormuz is open at all and they're not going to ensure those damn ships. So nothing is moving through the Straight of Hormuz. And I see these right-wing proTrump MAGA bloggers like the Straight of Horus is open. Hundreds of ships are moving and we're like the [ __ ] planet are you living on? I mean hard reality empirical things, things you can see with your eyes don't matter to them.

[00:42:25]these people. I mean, that's why it's a cult. I mean, a cult. Uh, and intelligence professionals like ourselves laugh at people like that. The problem is those people vote. Next, um, the Rich Stari, the ship that went out the other day. It's starting to look like they faked their AIS. All right.

[00:42:45]That's their automatic information system that showed that they were off Um, Quain and not in Iran, even though there was satellite imagery of it in Iran. and it transited out. Um, finally, Red Sea crude loadings. I have a picture of this. This is from Sal Mercaglano.

[00:43:04]Red Sea crude loadings are at an all-time high, right? April 25, May, May, September, October, November, December, January, March, and April. May's just started.

[00:43:20]All right. It's going to get nuts. Red Sea crude loadings. That red one there is Saudi Arabia obviously. Uh and others Oman, Somalia, anyone that ain't them is getting paid, right? 4.5 million barrels a day. The Saudis say that they've got 7 million going through that pipeline now.

[00:43:47]So this of course takes up the scaling up to that. Next month it'll be up here way above the top of the TV. But people who are loading in the Red Sea are making moola.

[00:43:58]And the problem with that is the bugaboo. Iran's trump card. The one that is holding the Saudis, the Gulf States, everyone over a barrel. And that is the behavior of the Houthies who now have to be uh dealt with. Waji, was it you who said that the Saudis bribed the Houthies?

[00:44:20]Yes.

[00:44:21]>> Yeah. Well, what about it? How much do you think they'd have to bribe them to play nice?

[00:44:28]>> Um, so the Saudis have been at war with the Houthies for more than 10 years and they got their ass kicked. So they ended up having to grab them and have them all come to Riad. And they got really good money to go to Riad >> and have some and to have to have some piece of neg.

[00:44:54]>> You know, if they got more money, they would spend that on more weapons and they would spend that on uh getting ready to shut down the Baba.

[00:45:04]>> But I Saudi Arabia to be like, "Hey, here take a bill and shut up." Um, >> a billion's not enough. A billion is not a good bribe >> for one person. It is for especially if you're in Yemen from Yemen, especially is not doing too good.

[00:45:23]>> You know how that [ __ ] works? That's got to trickle down the tribal chain.

[00:45:28]>> So, a billion's not enough cuz there's there's guys in fishing boats out there with machine guns who could put li paid lie to this. All right. All right. Well, the Red Sea crude loadings are at the highest. Uh, in US military news, US military uh, forces still continue to build up. The USS George Herbert Walker Bush, a ship finally named for a president that did something. I mean, George Herbert Walker Bush was a World War II pilot. He was took part in the battles in the Pacific, was shot down, took part in helping stand watches on the submarine that rescued him, and then went back to it. Director of the CIA, all of that. Uh, I miss the George HW Bush days compared to this craziness.

[00:46:10]Uh, okay. And like we said, Iraq is moving his stuff out by trucks. Yes.

[00:46:15]What, Malcolm? Just just one thing about the blockade.

[00:46:20]What I've seen I've seen some reporting.

[00:46:23]I don't know whether it's confirmed, but it's definitely something we should look out for that a number of ships have indeed transited out of the straight nearby the Iranian coast because the the American Navy won't go so close to the coastline because they're basically afraid of uh the Iranian striking them.

[00:46:50]>> I have said that. I think I told that story two days ago. you might have been on your little hiatus about when we were taking when when uh I met my friend Captain Jum who was one of the most successful successful oil um smugglers in Iraq's history and in one mission he had come out of um the uh Omaser uh waterway north of Bouian Island they were boarded by seals uh he turned the ship into Iranian waters and they came over by high-speed boat. He took the ship into Iranian waters. And as they were just like a kilometer from Iranian waters, the seals had to jump off the side of the ship to not be caught going into Bandar Kamini, right? We will not stay on a ship. We will not do VBSS. And I'm sure that if the Iranians want to get all dicey and spicy, they could tell these ships, "Turn left hard. go at full speed into our waters and the Americans will get off your ship. And you know what? You could run Iranian waters all the way to Pakistan if you're a Pakistani ship delivering oil to Pakistan. Who really needs that oil?

[00:48:07]>> But you know, Trump is the kind of guy that say, "Oh, we're boarding the ships and we'll bring them all to Pakistan and you can give me that eight tankers you promised me." I mean, eight tankers is $2 billion.

[00:48:20]And if Trump actually said, there's another thing that needs to be investigated. If he said that they actually gave him eight tankers, then he changed it to 10. You're saying you took a $2.5 billion bribe.

[00:48:33]>> Is that what you're saying? All right.

[00:48:35]So, all right. Enough about this. Let's >> talk about >> six or seven ships until now and it's just something we need to look out for.

[00:48:49]>> Yeah, they said they've been turned turned around. Okay.

[00:48:52]>> You actually Saudi Arabia pays an oath bribes. Last time they did pay an oathium bribe. It was a match of 2.5 billion.

[00:49:02]>> Um so I was kind of close.

[00:49:04]>> Kalas situation different. Much more.

[00:49:07]much more now we no problem make it I don't know the equivalent of 20 tankers that's >> 10 billion 10 billion kalash easy price my friend my friend we build new housing for poor peoples think of this >> argument to be 150 billion because they're measuring their damages at 250 billion >> that's Iran I'm talking about Yemen. All right.

[00:49:38]>> Yeah. Yemen.

[00:49:39]>> Every new house their damages at $250 billion.

[00:49:44]You give us this money. Don't think of this as payment. Think of this as zakat.

[00:49:52]Okay? Charity. Charity. 10 billion will get you. You will sit at the right hand of the prophet.

[00:50:00]>> You you'll go to heaven inshallah straight away.

[00:50:03]>> Inshallah. We are rebuilding only community goat markets.

[00:50:11]>> I've lived there. I've lived there too long. Okay, so anyway, back to important things. Iran is not wasting time. They are digging out their ballistic missile launch centers.

[00:50:24]And we have satellite imagery of these launch centers both before and after.

[00:50:31]Here are the doorways that were that are clean before and then this is after. This is a site that's been hit. They actually collapsed dirt on top of it. But the passageways are open and these are TRUCKS. AND WHAT'S INSIDE THERE? EXCAVATORS.

[00:50:52]It's Bob the Builder time in Iran. And we have several images of these sites of multiple missile sites. Here's another one that's uh before.

[00:51:06]This this is mainly showing the trucks, the number of trucks that are coming in and out of these facilities.

[00:51:13]And that means they're moving dirt. And when they move dirt, they're going to pile it off to the side. And that means the launch tubes are being dug out will be cleaned. They'll do an inventory of their missiles. And these guys ain't stupid.

[00:51:30]They'll have those kids with the mobile phones hanging out up in the sky like the Ukrainians did, like the Somalis did, and they will be um they will be uh uh waiting for the Israelis to show up again next time. This time they're going to launch those missiles first.

[00:51:50]>> Okay.

[00:51:50]>> Yeah.

[00:51:51]>> They ain't playing games.

[00:51:52]>> Okay.

[00:51:54]>> I said it before. The Iranians bunkers are 50 m underground on average and have uh the concrete uh reinforced with uh it to withstand 50,000 PSI.

[00:52:13]Your average uh B2 bomber bunker buster that could go the deepest cannot uh go more than 60 m at a time. So that's why if they want to get too wet, they have to throw maybe 10 of those. Actually 10. Yeah, they have to throw 10 of those to reach all the way to the 500 m.

[00:52:34]>> Yazid Mountain is 500 m, but it's 500 m under the mountain >> and it's deeper in the sub caverns like the missile loading facility, things like that.

[00:52:47]>> Okay.

[00:52:47]>> Everything is protected under there and it's very easy to esavate it. Otherwise, we would have seen an explosion. Thank you.

[00:52:54]>> Yeah. So, we I was monitoring the questions. My assistant who was taking questions is not with us this morning.

[00:53:01]Uh we answered most of those questions.

[00:53:04]So, uh I want you to do some admin. I want you to punch those hearts right now. Again, uh give them 10 or 15 punches. Then, if this is your first time or you haven't done it before, that little rondelle up top that says black man spy, touch it and the subscription boxes will come up from the bottom.

[00:53:24]Please subscribe to Waja. Please subscribe to Jacob. Uh, they need your followers. Waja does a lot of written analysis. I try to do two to three written analysis per week. He does two to three per day. um and I try to keep them aligned to very specific things uh but in the perspective of this war. And I also want to thank you for the fact that we are now number nine uh of all pod side of all substacks on world uh world politics. So it's good. Uh I find it horrible that some of my heroes out there that I've blown by them. Same thing with US politics. But uh we're giving you the content that you need.

[00:54:10]This is the intelligence you need. And you don't need to watch TV or doom scroll for the next day. You're clear.

[00:54:18]Go out, wake up, smell the coffee. I'm going to get in a big old run today. And uh you know, after I do, if anybody wants to hear more, I am on SiriusXM satellite or WCPTA 20 Chicago. I will be on the Stephanie Miller radio show in exactly 30 minutes. So, uh, and that that's all I do is shout when I'm on that channel. That's they think up questions to make me mad >> and they make me shout all the time. So, >> okay, if you're watching this on YouTube, you have already missed the live show which is on Substack. So, come to sub malcolm.substack.com substack.com and watch it live every morning at 9:00 a.m. until we can take a vacation from all of this. But we don't know. We will see. Uh, Jacob Carzo, thank you for coming. Wajia the lion cut, thank you for coming. We will see you all tomorrow. Take care.

[00:55:14]>> Thank you. You have a good one. See you tomorrow.

[00:55:16]>> Tomorrow. Bye. Bye.