Monday's 07/20/26 "Daily Brew":

[00:00:22]Now presenting Mr. Mike Coin, Governor's Hurricane Conference board member representing the National Weather Service.

[00:00:31]>> Good afternoon everyone. Our next award is the tropical meteorology award. is presented to an individual or organization that has made outstanding or substantial contributions to the advancement and knowledge application or understanding of the hurricane forecasting and warning process in the state of Florida.

[00:00:53]Since 2004, Mr. Mike has been educating people about trends, model runs, and everything else tropical weather related through his website.

[00:01:05]does not forecast, but his dedication and contributions to the citizens of Florida and providing tropical weather information in layman's terms, helping to explain what the forecast trends mean and how to follow all the extensive maps, charts, and graphs located on his website, Mike's Weatherage, aka spaghetti.com.

[00:01:26]>> The 2021 Tropical Meteorology Award goes to Mike of Mike's Weatherage.

[00:01:52]Well, there Mike's got a friend and 100,000 more across the If you want to know it first and you want to know it right your man it's going to tell you all about the wind and the rain going to hide.

[00:02:34]page.

[00:02:39]Yeah.

[00:02:41]Drunk donkey nation.

[00:02:58]All right. Look at that. Good morning.

[00:02:59]It works. I can't believe it. How are you doing? Happy Monday. It is Monday.

[00:03:06]It's Monday.

[00:03:09]We uh we had a live on Saturday and Sunday this week. So, thanks to Shelly for making time to be here for that as we look at some barrel footage a couple years ago. Not sure we got bar uh Bertha going to Texas or not. The latest models are back a little north again. So, the Walmart shirt uh might stay in the uh the drawer, but it's my duty to show all possibilities. And there's still a couple models, but the majority is tropical storm Bertha.

[00:03:50]So, anyway, yeah, we had a good live on Sunday. Thanks for watching. Um, she cut me loose. So, she's she uh we had the World Cup on. I didn't think about three. I wanted to get it done before the 5:00 advisory.

[00:04:06]So, but we're going to talk all about uh soon to be Bertha. There's probably a 100% guarantee Bertha is coming. Uh starting to get a little more convection around the center, but we'll see. Break it all down for you.

[00:04:24]So, so good morning. Remember we stream on a lot of places. Um, we got our private MWP chat which you can join.

[00:04:31]This is like the third year now Shelly or second year for sure. It's our private social media channel if you don't like social. Um, of course Facebook. Hello. We got X. Hello. We got YouTube. Hello. We got Tik Tok. Hello.

[00:04:45]And uh Instagram usually on just a regular post. So, and then I do little 90 second reels uh later in the afternoons. Try to try try to update everybody on that. Usually around maybe after the 5:00 advisory.

[00:05:03]So, not a big system right now to stress about. Listen, you know, nothing out there to worry. There's no huge 30 inches of rain coming on the maps. So, tropical storm conditions.

[00:05:18]I have in mind people sometimes severe thunderstorms are are worse. Um don't be cancelceled any plans yet to get a handle on how strong it's going to be and where it's going. Um it's not it's not one of these storms to be scared of right now. Aware of yes, you can always have weather. There's more severe weather going on in other parts of the country right now. But TD2 gets 24/7 news coverage. So everybody kind of anxiety goes up just a little bit, right? Because you see it 24/7 and uh you just don't know. So hopefully I can make make sense of it all. So we've been doing these Daily Brew since 2016, believe it or not. And uh one of our best friends, supporters, ABC Fine Wine and Spirits sponsoring the Daily Brew.

[00:06:10]We have our spaghetti model IPA coming out next month. So, watch for that.

[00:06:15]We're going to be doing some videos with ABC on that. It'll be available at ABC's across the state as uh you can't officially promote hurricane parties, but they happen. So, might as well go to ABC. Know your zone ABC and know where to go for your adult beverages. [laughter] And they sell good chips and salsa, too.

[00:06:44]Um, so yeah, nothing happened overnight. I thought we would have seen this thing really try to develop. Honestly, I'm kind of surprised. It looked a lot healthier yesterday. Um, let's take a look at it real quick with the radar.

[00:06:59]The uh the biggest the biggest inhibitor right now has been pressure. You got to have lowering pressures. This is current radar. Looks really gnarly. Pretty cool, right? Um let's say hi to a couple people. I'm going to get right into it. Um we'll we'll we'll say hello at the end.

[00:07:16]I want to go right into it. People during the tropics we people like the data and then we'll stick around the end if you want a shout out. We'll say hey.

[00:07:22]Um but this is current radar and uh yeah. Hey, it looks it looks tropical.

[00:07:28]We had an awesome little uh feeder band this morning here through Tampa Bay. It had some thunder and they're getting it again down south. So, and I get excited about feeder bands. I love the sunshine, which we got right now. Uh, and then we'll get a random fast moving feeder band and then we get sunshine again.

[00:07:43]It's like awesome. And it's cool up north because the counterclockwise flow is pulling down some cooler air actually. So, people have been talking to me from the panhandle saying it's a cool morning up there on the uh on the west side. So, there you go. Uh it's trying to get going. We'll see.

[00:08:02]Hurricane hunters are out there. Again, a lot of rain up there in different parts. Uh I think the rain forecast is the one thing that's not being forecast very well. Uh you know, common sense would tell you that these rain bands are dumping a lot of rain, but some of the rain maps are showing no rain like we're probably seeing. So, it's kind of watch the radar kind of day. But look at that thing.

[00:08:26]Looks pretty cool, right? Um, here's another satellite look. And the center is actually somewhere around here. I'm getting getting a lot of windshare. I want to talk about this in a second. But remember yesterday we were talking about very light windshare. Now, watch these storm clouds here. They're getting pushed off a little bit from the northeast. There's some wind shear entering the the scene. So, a lot of factors are going against uh potential birthday here. But there's what it looks like currently. I want to talk about a couple things and then we'll go right into it. So, uh the day three de day seven map here showing uh obviously rain. Now, the rain maps are not showing rain, but then we got a heavy rain on the uh weather prediction center. So, common sense will tell you we're going to have a lot of rain just how much.

[00:09:10]We're just going to have to watch for uh hazardous heat again. But the big story here is the uh east coast Carolina's up through Virginia. It's underneath the severe weather. So, we got severe weather today. I'm going to show you in the same area and then this is on Wednesday and Thursday. So, a lot of y'all been wanting rain in the Carolinas and the East Coast, and it looks like you're going to get it. But real quick, Storm Prediction Center today. I just want to bring this up. Storms parts big big part of Carolina steady. Of course, up in the north Great Lakes area. Yes, a lot of tornadoes are possible again today. This is your storm map today. Uh tomorrow, another large area for the Northeast. That's rare to see so many enhanced days for the Northeast. Uh they're dealing with a lot of power outages currently. I know Tammy from OSR told me they were up there doing a lot of restorations in the power world. But here's that other area coming back on Wednesday. So Carolas, you get Mid-Atlantic, you get double BOGO Monday and Wednesday storms. All right, so that's what we got coming up. All right, so back to uh TD2. Um there's your convection. You can see the windshar pushing off these storms. Yesterday uh we didn't have that much windshare in the scene. Uh and here's your visible satellite. So, what's cool about this graphic? I love this graphic. You can almost see the center. The yellow clouds are your lower level clouds. And they can really see an eye trying to develop here. Lower level circulation. This little spot right there. Let me circle it and then get rid of this big old thing. But if you look right there, just kind of focus right there. You'll see it right there. You got a teeny weeny little eye. [gasps] And you get some bubbling convection around it. See right here? Boom. You're getting some convection. Uh you need convection around an eye to to develop it and you need lowering pressure. So it's trying. It's sloppy. You can see these upper level winds are once these storms start to build then they get pushed off from those higher level winds and that disrupts things. Uh keeps storms developing slower.

[00:11:11]And here's that wind shear. Here's Florida. But this windshar is coming in at an angle now from the same upper level high that's steering this thing.

[00:11:21]There's a high pressure here and coming across and that's going to in uh introduce the steering that our system needs to go west. Um and it's going to be in a couple days. So that high pressure is going to keep that shear kind of strong. That was expected.

[00:11:38]But yesterday was the day that you thought it might have gotten a little more organized and it didn't.

[00:11:45]Here's that shear tendency showing you where it's at. Shear's increasing a little bit. Uh here's your verticity map. Very good verticity, but it's elongated. That's been the story line the whole time. It It's been kind of a mess uh with the core.

[00:12:04]Here's the uh steering mechanism. Now, you got to hide to the left, you got to hide to the right, you got to hide to the north. So, it's stuck right now somewhere in the middle. doesn't have very uh you got you got winds going this way, you got winds going this way, you got winds going this way. So, it doesn't really know what to do. It's kind of just like [sighs and gasps] um it's kind of lost. It's it's had too many uh had too many bush lights. It's kind of staggering around a little bit.

[00:12:36]Anybody ask about individual locations?

[00:12:38]If you know me, I I don't go into that.

[00:12:39]I talk about the weather patterns.

[00:12:41]There's apps for that.

[00:12:45][laughter and gasps] Um I I'll try at the end though. But anyway, that's why we're So this high pressure here, this little guy right here, this is sliding this way. And when it does, uh it's going to allow a west northwest motion uh towards probably Louisiana. And then the the models that were showing it dipping back down haven't yet. A little less today. So, Texas is a little bit better right now um as far as a direct hit. So, here's the latest track. There's a new track coming out 11 a.m. And notice the meandering around.

[00:13:22]It's not supposed to move much in the next 24 hours. Uh we got tropical storm watches up in yellow. And the center they tell you don't focus on. Anybody in in the cone is possible. It's a pretty wider cone than normal. a lot of uncertainty in the track, but that much land interaction would really prevent significant development.

[00:13:46]They've even lowered their estimate estimated winds to 50 was 60 yesterday.

[00:13:52]So, the NHC lowering their their strength a little bit. Um, so there you go. We're going to have dry air to the north, a lot of land. So, I don't there's a little window here. I want to show you some models. the Hmon and the H4 at times were showing this thing maybe turn into a hurricane before landfall.

[00:14:10]But hey, it's like flipping a coin. One run they do, then one one run they don't. So, we'll look at all the models.

[00:14:15]The the models don't have a really good handle. So, these are the systems systems you kind of watch in real time.

[00:14:21]Remember that big bubble of convection days ago off the Florida West Coast?

[00:14:24]That was be the beginnings of this thing. That was impressive. uh what we're looking at now isn't yet, but it doesn't mean it can't happen. If those pressures start to drop, then yeah, it could happen uh a little quicker. Here's your zoom.ear look. I love looking at this one cuz it has the past track on it. And you can see it's been kind of it's kind of been staggering around making new centers.

[00:14:50]This is where it's at currently. Um and uh you can see the the winds spinning around. So, it's got decent circulation, but it doesn't have um everything going for it. Little bit of that dry air still lingering. And I'm going to show you some drier maps on uh tropical tidbits. Now, here's LA 12Z.

[00:15:14]These just came out. Let's zoom in on them. Super duper zoom. You can see uh some of these still going to the south.

[00:15:20]Yes. UK. So you can't, you know, you can't discount the chances of this thing doing something, you know, towards Texas. But majority of them are Louisiana and maybe staying over land.

[00:15:35]Uh, but notice a lot of people ask me, can this thing stop and go east? There's a lot of people obviously follow me in Florida. I would say almost zero chances of that. um you would you would see signs of an of a stray outlier meeting some weather patterns possibly could change but this is pretty solid forecast. Uh the time stamps everybody always wants right here is 24. So here we are today. So it's supposed to be here tomorrow. And then you look at here you see a bunch of 48s. That's 2 days from now. So this is Tuesday. And this is Wednesday. So not a lot of movement.

[00:16:09]Uh this is 72 hours, 96 hours. Um so that gives you an idea of time time stamps if you're wondering about that.

[00:16:21]And that was your sixes. That was your 12Z. It already refreshed. All right. Um here's a cool website. This is um uh to Tor. Is this Tor's website? I'm Yeah, Tor. I think it's Tor Berg.

[00:16:36]And oh my god, you can have so much fun on this. I have I have it linked on the site. If you go to Mike's Brother page, all this stuff's linked on the site right here. Uh bird guidance and tang guidance. Uh this is really cool. Um I like looking at these ensembles and the ensemble blends kind of red is high. It kind of puts them all together. And this is neat because you got your Canadian, you got your I don't even want to look at GFS. You got your euro uh euro blend kind of showing you that turn and all the members. But what's interesting with the euro again is there are some outliers that we have to point out. These are the ones that if they don't make a lot of land then but it's five out of 50.

[00:17:27]So 5% do your math. Most of them are weaker going up, you know, tropical storm. But it is it is a cool tool.

[00:17:35]There's so many cool tools on this site.

[00:17:37]All your AI ensembles. Um, you know, AI keeping it pretty pretty weak as it comes across. Um, but you can look at them all. And, uh, like I said, there's spaghetti models here, too.

[00:17:50]Forecast water temps. This just a different This is the super ensembles. I wish you would put Google or um Google on these but they don't. So this is basically Euro CMC Canadian and the UK met.

[00:18:06]But the point of this one is that that confidence is is north west north west northwest for the time being. Um even the icon has ensembles. I didn't know the icon had ensembles. Everybody was sharing the icon last night because it was uh really having a hurricane hitting Texas, but you know, there's some icons, but so there you go. Not a high confidence of of anything other than a tropical storm, but there are some uh still kind of teasing the idea. Um enough to mention. How about that? and timing would be more like later in the week, you know, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday is when we would know for sure if that was something coming to to the uh to the Western Gulf. Um, but I'm going to show you there's a lot of dry air coming into play. So, it makes it kind of tough.

[00:19:00]Now, the other site here, um, it's really cool. This is um Brian Tang and he's got these graphics we show a lot that show you you the last four NHC forecasts and the trend that they have done and you can see they've been bouncing around a little bit but the last four runs of the official NHC forecast showing you that. And then HCCA is a real HCCA last year was a really good model. Um and these are all going right towards Louisiana. You know I did see they're releasing sandbags. I mean, they're watching up there. It's obviously something to keep an eye on. I mean, I you know, it definitely um in that part of the world, I mean, the storm surge isn't showing up high yet because it's so far out. Uh storm surge isn't showing in their forecast yet. Um but and the consensus model is always good, uh too. So, but it's a good site if you want to mess around with it. You can look at all the last runs of the Euro and the 12Z and all that good stuff.

[00:20:06]Ensembles and look at fiveday ensemble runs and I like it a lot. But at this point, it's all kind of the same thing.

[00:20:15]I I think I think in in relation to what people are watching that right now is what it does today before any alerts go up as far as rain surge winds because I don't think anybody really knows if if it's going to intensify to what levels before potential, you know, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida panhandle impacts.

[00:20:39]Um, but I do want to show you all the different models [clears throat] because that's what we do.

[00:20:47]Uh, hurricane hunters are out there.

[00:20:49]This is your tropical tidbits hurricane hunters and they're finding 107 pressure 106 on one of the passes. So, it's not really dropping. Let's take a look.

[00:21:00]Currently, I think they got two planes out there. Maybe they had two this morning. I think they had two going on this morning.

[00:21:06]So, yeah, they're doing a bunch of testing out there. They're in the storm now. They're in a storm now. They got two planes out there. 1067.

[00:21:16]There's your big winds. This is flight level winds, but they're um [snorts] you know, they're not bad. We'll see what they say. 10006. Usually need to pressure down just a little bit more and a little bit more storms around center.

[00:21:29]And you can look at the uh lightning, too. I like to look at the lightning uh the lightning map. Does the satellite page have lightning on there? I don't think it does yet. They they should, but they don't. Um, [groaning] no, we have visible. We don't have without we don't have um lightning on this one.

[00:21:51]Really, the only lightning map we have would be goes east.

[00:21:57]And we can zoom in a little closer to here. Oh, maybe we can do it here. Here we go. 2D 2D2 TD TD2. All right, let's see. Flash extent.

[00:22:13]Um, see you got a couple little pops there. See it right here. Not a lot, but couple the southern um southern thunderstorm of the center there. Got got a few flashes. So, there's that.

[00:22:31]All right. So, let's get that one out of here. Here's your storm surge, by the way. Uh, not I think it only goes out x amount of days because obviously we're going to see numbers in Louisiana. Um, Sierra has a site, however, I don't know if it's updated. Yesterday, it was only showing the 50% um highlighted area. Let's see if they've updated it. Oh, they have. So, we might these might be more accurate possibly.

[00:23:00]So, here's some storm surge ideas just kind of showing you like Bay St. Louis, home of Josh Morgan.

[00:23:09]You know, it's a couple feet. I mean, you can click right here, you know, click right here. We can get more um idea, you know, 3 foot.

[00:23:23]And that's based on the current track.

[00:23:25]And uh I don't know that's the correct track.

[00:23:29]Is that the right track? Yeah, that's that's the right track maybe. So, I'm not seeing anything over five.

[00:23:35]But it's a good site, Sierra, if you want to, you know, there's Lake Pon Train there getting a little bit of a little bit of action. Another good site is Gulf Surge right above it and you can look at um actual markers kind of give you an idea what they expect.

[00:23:52]And nothing too big showing right now.

[00:23:54]All right, there's that rainfall. This is tricky. I want to talk about the rainfall. So, this is your latest rainfall map and it I don't understand it honestly.

[00:24:02]This is through Monday. Okay. Um, darker greens 2 to 4 in. That makes sense. It's just this area right here.

[00:24:12]I'm not really sure if it's correct yet or not. Um, some of the lower Louisiana though is showing four to six. Makes sense, right? It's just we're not seeing uh sometimes we see 10 inches plus. We're not seeing that. We've seen it to the south, but there's a lot of dry air uh preventing this thing from getting too bad. So, there are areas in Florida, 2 to 4 in. Uh, now we look at the actual excessive rainfall maps. These are what's interesting. Now, this is today.

[00:24:38]Makes sense, right? Uh, we go to tomorrow.

[00:24:42]Same. This is Tuesday. Here's Wednesday, though. Now, we're starting to see darker yellow. And look up here in the Carolinas, too. This is that rain Wednesday coming down from that front, but on the back side of that high pressure. So, there's Wednesday. We're starting to see yellow and that's flooding. That's probably when the storm's getting very, very close. And we actually see now this stretch into Texas. Judy, we're talking about this.

[00:25:03]So, even though the rain map, the official rain map doesn't show any rain.

[00:25:09]How I don't understand. Uh we're seeing flooding risks here for Thursday just south of Houston and parts of Houston down there. So, you know, and then we go into Friday and we still see some more. So just obviously tropical systems, we got to worry about rain as a as a potential. All right, so let's go look at some models. Your hurricane specific models, I love them. They they're really good. They're just bouncing around. Different ideas every other run. One run is bad, one run is good, meaning weak. Um latest H warfar 6Z here showing a 994 system south of this is tomorrow midday. Uh and it actually 99291 that's a you know decent size tropical storm this run it actually brings it up into the tip of Florida there and then of course uh fizzle out a little bit comes back down but never really gets a chance to regain itself. Uh Hwarf and tracks aren't that good. That's good on intensity though. So 99 you know but here's here's the graphic that uh says it all. If we look at moisture and look at the humidity levels, look at all this dry air.

[00:26:19]Lots of dry air. And tropical systems need moist air.

[00:26:26]So this high pressure to the north is going to bring bring in a lot of dry air. And that usually limits thunderstorms, which without thunderstorms, you don't get lowering pressures and dry air. Even though that water's hot, we had hot water last year. There wasn't any storms last year in the Gulf. There's a lot of other factors that come into play than just warm water. You got to have moist atmosphere.

[00:26:56]Some people, you know, bring up that sometimes systems can, you know, create their own moisture, but dry air at the upper levels is really tough to combat.

[00:27:08]Now, going back to um the H now see the and here's your radar map kind of showing you this. See that all that moisture and we we have wind shear coming down from the north. It kind of pushes all these thunderstorms to the south, keeping that big bulk of rain to the south.

[00:27:27]doesn't mean you can't have isolated storms. Storm prediction center is not even showing anything right now. And I think that's a little odd too because there any tropical system spitting you you can get some random thunderstorms wrapping around on that the uh the center. So def definitely you know you'll pay attention to your radar. Um even though this the prediction center is not showing any chances of anything severe.

[00:27:51]uh isolated tornadoes are always possible in tropical systems from the nature of of of the spin in the Gulf. Um happens all the time. Now the Hmon has been in a very aggressive model as far as intensity goes. Um it's showing 982 tomorrow and that would be possible hurricane but also look at this moisture to the north. [snorts] Tremendous dry air to the north. like like like no rain. [laughter] So the dry air even though it says 983 it's tough to to imagine being anything like another 9 barrel was a 979 pressured system. It was intense. Uh now another thing even though this might not have the moisture 983 would produce surge uh it the winds would be there regardless uh without I mean tight gradients produce wind maybe just not as much rain. So we could still see some issues obviously with storm surge to lowline areas if this thing was a 985 on approach. Um and then it kind of keeps it low into Texas. um it doesn't really recover much after that. So, so bottom line, you know, there's a little window here of uh of what if today through tomorrow with these bands. Uh I suspect there's going to be some sneaky bands in the panhandle as this developing system takes shape through the day today into tomorrow.

[00:29:31]Now, your hos models, which are really good, they took a while to get in on this and they're not showing much at all.

[00:29:38]tropical storm very disorganized.

[00:29:43]Uh it does bring it back down in the water, keeps it around 980 or 990, no 980 and into Texas there. So big old sloppy system, you know, doesn't even look like anything. You go to the winds, you can see a little better maybe, but nothing.

[00:30:00]I always look at pressure. Pressure is number one thing to look at. Then hos bees will be very similar, I have a feeling because they kind of the same.

[00:30:06]So there's that. Um, let's go back to individual models, which we like to do.

[00:30:11]Then we'll look at Google Deep Mind and then I'll start reading some comments.

[00:30:17]Um, let's go to Southeast. Let's look at the Euro and the main Euro Keur is very ragged.

[00:30:26]Here's that front line it's going to mingle with. This is uh the big rains for East Coast coming Wednesday, Thursday. So you're get you're getting your rain, but Euro ain't doing nothing with it.

[00:30:39]Euro AI keeps it a tropical storm and you know brings whatever towards Texas weak.

[00:30:46]Um GFS I don't even want to look at GFS.

[00:30:50]Canadian uh 105 even the icon is probably that you're is backed off a little bit. So yeah, I don't know man. Nothing's getting worked up about.

[00:31:04]Definitely not the uh yesterday there was a little bit more H.

[00:31:13]Today there's not as much H as far as the whatifs.

[00:31:18]Uh here's actual Google's model, which I don't like the radar part of this thing, so I turn that off. So here's your latest Deep Mine. Wow.

[00:31:30]Let's see what it's doing. Um, it's showing this thing fizzling out over Louisiana. Actually, there's the deep mind and it keeps the pressures um not even below a thousand.

[00:31:47]So, all you Google Deep Mind lovers, this is uh a weak tropical storm that fizzles out once it reaches land.

[00:32:02]So, that's what we got.

[00:32:05][sighs] Not going to uh make anything more, you know, than than a few outliers.

[00:32:14]Not very many. And it's really all what it does today. It it really comes down to um watching this thing in real time.

[00:32:23]There's some wind shears, some dry air, there's some land. But all in all, I mean, and let me show you that other radar which I really like. So there's a Florida radar site that actually does the whole GF coast Florida radar right here. Southwest Water Management. And they have a GF coast radar, which I like. I might throw that on the website actually because it actually has the track on here, which I love. Good job, Florida.

[00:32:46]There you go. So, we'll leave that up.

[00:32:48]I'm gonna put that on the website. I like that website. That's a really cool looking radar loot. Right, Bobby?

[00:32:56]All right. So, I usually mingle a little bit more with everybody. We do that all year long.

[00:33:04]Um, not right now though. Let's see. Why is this thing showing up? Why am I getting this stupid comment? I'm going to delete that comment.

[00:33:12]I got like one silly comment on my page.

[00:33:14]I need to go back to the live. Hang on a second.

[00:33:18]How do I go live in there? I'm not even There we are. All right. Facebook. Okay.

[00:33:23]Good morning, Dothan. Drove through Dothan many times on the way to Tallaladega. Brew Crew, what are y'all talking about real quick? I see I see Brandy over there.

[00:33:33]Um, [sighs and gasps] Houston, what's up? Naks, just rain so far. Not like y'all need it. Trip, I'm doing great. Thank you.

[00:33:42]Any dust news, Ian? Uh, we'll take a look for you, man. Coming all the way from Jamaica. We'll check it out real quick for you. I don't know. There's really nothing in the tropics. That mid-level low is still out there, but they're not marking it. So, we're going to talk one storm at a time.

[00:34:01]And here's your latest dust map. Little bit of drier in the Gulf, which is helping. But here's your You got another plume coming in Jamaica.

[00:34:09]uh today actually right there. Look at you got a big one coming today and tomorrow and even more coming down little middle of the week.

[00:34:22]So yeah, you got you got a couple more this week.

[00:34:26]Still still coming in hot.

[00:34:33]Um cool Tammy. Yeah, I try to keep the app very simple. The app is uh the Rays.

[00:34:41]I won't talk about the Rays. Mark Hall.

[00:34:44][sighs and gasps] Are we ever going to win? Yeah, we Lupetti is a good question. Uh there there's some to the south. There's really nothing up that way. That water's cooler, too. By the way, I do want to point this out. The water anomalies here on Tropical Tidbits. It's hot where it's at now, above normal, but actually Texas is a little cooler cooler than the 30-year normal, whatever normal is average. How about that?

[00:35:08]Uh, Lupettes right here. Um, down down.

[00:35:10]Where the hell are they? Right here.

[00:35:12]Here we go. Here we go. Here we go.

[00:35:13]There's a couple of them to the south, but not really benefiting this system currently. So, there's your main loop current and couple loopies there in the middle part of the Gulf, but not enough to help this system organize.

[00:35:34]The dry air really opened my eyes this morning when I s saw the dry air on those high resolution Hmon Hos. I mean, I knew we had high pressure to the north, but man, there's, you know, you need humidity. You need a a she, you know, it needs to form its own shield to to prevent that dry air ingestion.

[00:35:55]So, uh, Pensacola, Matt, I think there going to be some sneaky winds and surge and swallines the next couple days. uh couple models actually having this hit in Pensacola now. So yeah, you're going to get some unsettled weather. You know, so far no worse than severe thunderstorms you normally get. It's just more persistent isolated flooding.

[00:36:14]Uh I I I think you always have a chance of a water spout turn tornado always with spiraling tropics in nature. That's not being uh hype at all. That's reality. So just squally weather the next couple days as this thing inches your way. Should be out of here by Thursday. Okay, so Tuesday, Wednesday, the last two days.

[00:36:36]Navar Beach, same thing, man. Manette, Alabama, where's that at? Richard Rhyr, how you doing, buddy? I sure will. Oh, yeah. Louis Long were getting picked up.

[00:36:45]We had to have them boarded up this week because Emily had a softball weekend.

[00:36:49]So, um, I miss him. [gasps] Byron, I just try to pass on the info for everybody. Um, Ryan, good morning.

[00:36:58]Anybody get nice little rain bands happening right now? Look at these things. Especially in the Big Bend area.

[00:37:03]Any Appalachiccola folks? Port St. Joe definitely uh getting getting some squaly weather that way. My friends in St. Marks.

[00:37:16]I know we got somebody from St. Marks.

[00:37:20]Yeah, we should be live tomorrow either here or on the road.

[00:37:28]Shelley, did uh who who are you rooting for in the World Cup, by the way, because you guys said you're big big soccer fans.

[00:37:36]Uh Ryan, I think today would be our last day of these random storm. I don't know.

[00:37:41]No, I think tomorrow, too, because this Let's take a look at that because this thing isn't moving much. I think there's going to be some coastal storms again tomorrow, too, because it's not really moving very much. Let's look at the 12Z uh HR RR.

[00:37:56]And 12Z is running now.

[00:38:00]Yeah. See, right there's a P. This is tomorrow. So, yeah. No, no. See tomorrow. Uh, let's zoom in a little closer to Florida since we had a Florida question. No, I think tomorrow is going to be more the same. Some feeder bands here, there, everywhere.

[00:38:20]And this is kind of what it looks like throughout the day today. You know, believe it or not, we're going to have some out here on the um uh east coast, too, coming up.

[00:38:31]And they're all going to be coming up from the south, wrapping around. Here's tomorrow.

[00:38:36]So, we could still see some sneaky bands tomorrow. This is tomorrow, mid midm morning.

[00:38:43]By Wednesday, it's far enough to the west that we're gonna be kind of back to some more east coast rains coming through the state. So, yeah, I still think Tuesday, Wednesday, there's going to be some lingering on Wednesday, but Tuesday, yes.

[00:39:03]Yes, yes, yes.

[00:39:07]So, hey, storm surge maps there. There's some out there now. I don't know. Um, they must go out on a time frame because this is their storm surge map. It's on the website. It's on their website, but it's only going out x amount of days. I I I don't I I I know it's going to extend more to the west. It's got to.

[00:39:31]So, don't don't think there's not going to be a little something something, you know, towards um Mississippi and Louisiana.

[00:39:42]Niceville is nice. Bonnie Appalachia Kevin, I guarantee you're getting some squaly weather coming off.

[00:39:51]Um, I love Weather Stem. Let's take a look here. I Let's look at some Weather Stem cameras.

[00:40:02]Let's look at Bay County or what what county is Appalachiccola in, by the way? I don't know if you're Bay County or not.

[00:40:11]But we'll find out.

[00:40:15]So, weather stem cameras. We can look at some cool stuff here. Let's take a look at some Appalachic of cameras.

[00:40:23]Here's one here from the lighthouse. That's Port St. Joe, right? I've been there before.

[00:40:30]Let's take a look. I don't know which direction it's looking at. Well, here we can do a snapshot. We can get an idea.

[00:40:35]Oh, there's a good one. Let's take a look at that one. This is from Franklin Dog Island, Franklin County.

[00:40:44]All right, here's uh live view.

[00:40:49]And there's your squaly weather.

[00:40:56]There's live. That is weird. It defaults somewhere else.

[00:41:00]Alligator Point. That's where Reed Timmer was hanging out during Helen.

[00:41:10]Huh.

[00:41:12]My um cookie is not working. But there you go.

[00:41:16]Pretty neat. I like looking at these cameras all around.

[00:41:21]This such a pretty towns up there along the water.

[00:41:27]I think I've parked there before.

[00:41:30]That's Mexico Beach. I know right where it's at.

[00:41:33]There's a looking to the uh southwest from Mexico Beach.

[00:41:39]Shadel, what's up? I was there during Delta. Um just rain.

[00:41:49]The only thing sneaky about this system is any any any tropical system can produce some squaly weather with these feeder bands. So, you know, don't discount any any of those possibilities.

[00:41:58]um to tropics. But as far as any stronger than a tropical storm at this point would be I guess irresponsible other than just pointing out there's a couple outliers showing that and it really comes down to what it does today.

[00:42:14]And and these pressures don't drop it's going to start losing its window of opportunity.

[00:42:21]And right now the pressures are not dropping at all.

[00:42:29]06 was the last fix.

[00:42:34]So pressure start to drop then things change a little bit. But there you go.

[00:42:38]All right.

[00:42:40]No worries. We got this right.

[00:42:45]By this weekend it'll be a a distant memory. You know remember Arthur? Arthur was a little different. We were seeing rain maps showing double digit rains. We were, you know, we were seeing that potential. Um, it's just not seeing that right now.

[00:43:01]And that's because that dry air, you know, we can look at some model, you know, higher resolution models. I like to look at the blend models, [snorts] but the uh Noah blend here models just not showing it. We go 10 days.

[00:43:22]I mean, this is what's really baffling me. I I you know, like obviously coastal rains. I mean, this is good rains. 3.8 ines, you know, uh Louisiana, hardly any like this 10day rains. I don't know. Dry air could could be the reason why. So, there's a lot of a lot of question marks on this rain forecast. Um, and what's really fascinating, like Texas is not even showing any in 10 days. Like, but but if you look at, you know, flood potential maps, then we have that possibility of excessive rain here in Texas. So, and Louisiana.

[00:44:07]So, anyway, we'll see.

[00:44:09]Cool. All right. Well, hey, we made it 10 o'clock. Any more couple questions?

[00:44:14]Anybody watching NASCAR race? Um Ivan, that was a long time ago.

[00:44:22]Yeah, there's other webcams out there. I I I don't You got to be careful. Some of the webcams can copyright you. I just I'm friends with the weather stamp. Oh, you know, I never got the damn I was supposed to get a package. I don't know if I ever did or not. They're having me uh help reset one of their cameras.

[00:44:40]Richie, we'll see you tomorrow. Uh Beth, we got a few more bands. I think they can make their way into the Penelis County area.

[00:44:50]So there you go, Tennessee. It was a good race, Craig. It was kind of cool to see Wilsboro back, man. A lot of lot of memories there with Nhard and Walrip and Allison and Yarborough.

[00:45:04]the good old days.

[00:45:13]Happy to see Logan win, man. He's had a rough year.

[00:45:17][snorts] Uh, nothing coming off Africa to stress about Melanie. I'm not really looking at anything right now currently. Um, I used to really look hard and deep.

[00:45:28]Problem is the it's usually wrong more than it's right.

[00:45:35]And I I just I think after the the couple years of hurricanes that we've had, I I I just don't feel comfortable um raising the alarm on anything unless it's really got good confidence, you know, and there's just really nothing right now. The um the mid-level low was interesting. I I don't even know if it's showing. Let me see if it was showing anymore. So, we had a mid-level low that was popping into the scene, but really not showing anything. Um, hurricane percentage though, let's take a look at that cuz I it did go up to almost 40% yesterday on that probability, which I was kind of surprised. Uh, and we still got decent. It's still um couple couple showing 20% hurricane tropical storm high percentages.

[00:46:32]But even the euro, you know, still saying a little bit, you know, but it's come down a little bit, too. But that's that's the first time all season that we've sat had the uh EPS probability percentage showing uh hurricane.

[00:46:47]So, yeah, just watching today real time.

[00:46:49]Nothing we can do.

[00:46:52]Cool. All right. Well, we uh Oh, little bushes went. Ah, Tracy, that was awesome. I saw the video on that. [snorts] Julie actually watched it, too. Man, what a great story, though, man. You know, another kid that lost his dad, um, Gibbs, and he's maturing into a pretty good racer. He took a lot of heat when he was uh you know Exfinity there and bumping people around but um and all these damn kids man losing their dad man it's sad Molina just watch for rains you know so the bottom line with the system tornado threats uh Misha yeah there's not a officially it's just yeah anytime you get a squalally uh especially with daytime heating these feeder bands can get strong. There's nothing official from the Storm Prediction Center. You know, there's no tornado watch. I just know historically it's not uncommon to see a water spout try to make its way on the land on a normal day. So, you mingle in, you know, higher winds and sheer and and stability then yeah, we're going to, you know, so you always watch for that.

[00:48:10]No, no, no, no reason to do anything different than you normally do.

[00:48:15]So, I wish I could assess like scare levels one to 10. This would be like a one or two. So, you know, we'll just keep an eye on it. If the pressures drop significantly today, then things could change, but they're not.

[00:48:32]Models are your friends, and we're just not seeing anything right now to get too worked up about. think that the the main areas that I would be more worried about would be Louisiana, Mississippi, you know, Alabama, you know, where it's heading. If we were to get one of these outlier runs like the Hmon, you know, 982 would produce some decent winds that would be almost hurricane force winds.

[00:48:54]Um, but we'll see what the next model runs.

[00:48:58]I got the 12Z will be coming out soon enough and you know, this is the worst case scenario, the Hmon at this point.

[00:49:07]with the H warf showing a little higher pressures and a little more north track in 991 range on approach.

[00:49:18]And like I said, they could they could produce this, you know, that could still be, you know, decent winds reaching the surface. [snorts] And there's a panhandle. That would be tomorrow evening time into Wednesday. Of course, Hmon is the most aggressive of any of the models right now.

[00:49:44]The HOS models are good models and they're not showing that at all. They're showing a very disorganized system.

[00:49:54]All right.

[00:49:56]So, one way or another, we will see you tomorrow. I'll do a short little reel this afternoon. There's a new advisory coming out at 11:00 a.m. um from the National Hurricane Center. We'll see what they say cuz I just got a text.

[00:50:11]Oh, I get these weird random texts now. Hey, our teams in Oldmar are doing trim treat trim trim trimming or